Survivor record holders
Highest Performance Above Expected (PAE)
By: Jeff Pitman | Last updated: March 25, 2021

Highest PAE (performance above expected) - Adam Klein, Millennials vs. Gen X

 

Adam Klein

S33: Millennials vs. Gen X

+75.5%

 

See also:

PBE - Performance Below Expected

Highest PAE (performance above expected)
Rank Contestant Season PAE NoJ SNoJ JVF ExJ
1 Adam Klein, Millennials vs. Gen X Adam Klein S33 75.5% 3.86 15.73 10 2.5
2 Earl Cole, Fiji Earl Cole S14 64.8% 6.16 17.52 9 3.2
3 Jeremy Collins, Cambodia Jeremy Collins S31 57.1% 6.09 14.19 10 4.3
4 Denise Stapley, Philippines Denise Stapley S25 54.2% 3.85 18.52 6 1.7
5 Natalie White, Samoa Natalie White S19 53.8% 3.48 14.51 7 2.2
6 Tommy Sheehan, IotI Tommy Sheehan S39 53.1% 5.00 17.15 8 2.9
7 Tyson Apostol, Blood vs. Water Tyson Apostol S27 51.0% 6.73 18.45 7 2.9
8 John Cochran, Caramoan John Cochran S26 45.2% 9.70 17.71 8 4.4
9 Chris Underwood, EoE Chris Underwood S38 45.0% 4.63 19.14 9 3.1
10 Tony Vlachos, Cagayan Tony Vlachos S28 44.2% 5.40 12.08 8 4.0
11 Boston Rob Mariano, Redemption Island Boston Rob Mariano S22 43.5% 7.23 15.91 8 4.1
12 J.T. Thomas, Tocantins J.T. Thomas S18 42.5% 11.11 19.30 7 4.0
13 Sandra Diaz-Twine, HvV Sandra Diaz-Twine S20 38.0% 4.89 17.05 6 2.6
14 Todd Herzog, China Todd Herzog S15 37.7% 4.44 22.83 4 1.4
15 Sophie Clarke, South Pacific Sophie Clarke S23 37.3% 6.18 21.01 6 2.6
16 Sarah Lacina, Game Changers Sarah Lacina S34 37.1% 7.06 21.47 7 3.3
17 Jenna Morasca, S6, S8 Jenna Morasca S6 33.1% 7.99 15.18 6 3.7
18 Ben Driebergen, HvHvH Ben Driebergen S35 32.9% 5.41 18.30 5 2.6
19 Kim Spradlin, One World Kim Spradlin S24 32.0% 9.68 21.16 7 4.1
20 Danni Boatwright, Guatemala Danni Boatwright S11 30.6% 8.01 14.55 6 3.9
21 Yul Kwon, Cook Islands Yul Kwon S13 30.6% 5.61 22.52 5 2.2
22 Amber Brkich, All-Stars Amber Brkich S8 26.2% 5.67 18.34 4 2.2
23 Richard Hatch, Borneo Richard Hatch S1 25.8% 4.42 14.10 4 2.2
24 Aras Baskauskas, Panama-Exile Island Aras Baskauskas S12 25.2% 4.95 10.71 5 3.2
25 Parvati Shallow, Micronesia - FvF Parvati Shallow S16 24.7% 5.68 15.03 5 3.0
26 Wendell Holland, Ghost Island Wendell Holland S36 24.4% 6.37 21.10 6 3.3
27 Michele Fitzgerald, Kaoh Rong Michele Fitzgerald S32 23.6% 8.31 17.37 5 3.3
28 Tony Vlachos, Winners at War Tony Vlachos S40 23.2% 9.23 17.80 12 8.3
29 Sandra Diaz-Twine, Pearl Islands Sandra Diaz-Twine S7 21.4% 6.83 10.63 6 4.5
30 Nick Wilson, DvsG Nick Wilson S37 20.7% 9.50 19.26 7 4.9
31 Tom Westman, Palau Tom Westman S10 20.0% 12.66 19.27 6 4.6
32 Fabio Birza, Nicaragua 'Fabio' Birza S21 19.6% 8.80 24.49 5 3.2
33 Susie Smith, Gabon Susie Smith S17 19.1% 5.40 22.76 3 1.7
34 Ethan Zohn, Africa Ethan Zohn S3 17.6% 9.87 18.33 5 3.8
35 Mike Holloway, Worlds Apart Mike Holloway S30 17.2% 13.26 22.94 6 4.6
36 Bob Crowley, Gabon Bob Crowley S17 16.6% 8.79 22.76 4 2.8

Complete through Winners at War. Click contestant name/picture to view their contestant page.

What is PAE?

 

PAE is intended to reflect that great, unmeasurable component of Survivor: a finalist's social game. We can only use it to evaluate finalists, because it measures the degree to which the jury votes a finalist receives reflects their physical (challenges) and strategic (voting people out) games. If the finalist receives significantly more jury votes than their prior performance would predict, then it seems likely they had a good social game. If they receive fewer (or no) jury votes, then their social game was probably poor. Straightforward, right?

 

Caveats: (1) Everything is context-dependent: one person's decent social game might look pitiful against a social master, yet brilliant against a belligerent, anti-social troll. (2) Also, if one of the finalists completely dominated every aspect of the game, AND was brilliant socially (Kim Spradlin), they will probably be undervalued here. But it's the best we can do (feel free to debate this assertion in the comments). Here's how we came up with the formula:

 

PAE uses the "No jury" score (ChW + wTCR). First, we calculate "expected" jury score (ExJ), which is the number of jurors (TotJ) times the ratio of the player's No jury score (NoJ) divided by the sum of all the NoJ scores of the finalists (SNoJ). Basically, in a jury of the size the player saw, they should receive ExJ votes. ExJ = TotJ * (NoJ/SNoJ).

 

Then, PAE is simply the actual number of votes received (JVF), minus ExJ, then divided by the number of jurors, or:

PAE = (JVF - ExJ)/ TotJ.

 

The final number reflects the percent of the jury votes received that did not reflect prior challenge or tribal council performance. Or "social game." For example, in Fiji, Earl, Cassandra, and Dreamz had ExJ scores of 3.2, 2.5, and 3.3, respectively (Earl didn't win any challenges). This projects as a virtual tie between Earl and Dreamz. Yet in reality, Earl swept the jury vote, 9-0-0, for a PAE score of 0.65, or 65%. A testament to Earl's ability to convince the jurors to vote for him.