First off, a few notes from my rewatch of last week’s episode. We all saw how heartbroken Tiyana was when she got voted out. It’s a toss-up between her and Anika as to who was more devastated. However, Tiyana did recognize and ignore some fairly clear warning signs. After the Immunity Challenge, Tiyana met alone with Kyle and pitched going after Gabe:

Tiyana: “If we hit Gabe, we gotta be a bullseye because he’ll never trust us again.”

Kyle: “I don’t think we’d be able to tell Sue.”

Tiyana: “Oh, absolutely not.”

This means Tiyana was 100% aware that Gabe had a partnership with Sue. So, with only two other Tuku members around, Tiyana either didn’t consider that Gabe had another partner, or she was totally convinced Caroline was on her side. Either way, props go to Caroline for doing such a good job of fooling Tiyana.

We also saw that Kyle wouldn’t commit to voting for Gabe unless Caroline was on board. Kyle tried to convince Caroline to side with Tiyana, but we didn’t see Caroline’s reply. It’s pretty clear now that Caroline told Kyle she was gonna vote for Tiyana. That explains Kyle’s vote for Tiyana.

All of this tells me that Caroline is a power player for the moment. It reminded me of how Austin, Drew and Julie wouldn’t make a move without knowing Dee was on board in Survivor 45. I don’t think Caroline is playing nearly as strong a game as Dee was playing, but she’s playing better than I thought she was for sure. Since the rest of the tribe was watching, everybody now knows Caroline was the swing vote to remove Tiyana. As Teeny noted “Oh God, she looks stressed.” Caroline’s position got a little weaker because now everyone knows whatever they tell Caroline will likely be shared with Gabe, Sue and/or Kyle. It will be tough for Caroline to convince anyone she’d be willing to vote out a Tuku member.

And speaking of Kyle, he got a little screwed last week. Kyle was the only one seen wearing an Immunity necklace. Both Teeny and Genevieve beat him in last week’s Immunity Challenge, but Kyle got the lasting image. He’s the only one these players have seen wearing the necklace. That could easily get him targeted sooner than later. He should make a point of reminding everyone how he actually lost to Teeny and Genevieve. If I were Kyle and had to wear the necklace again at this week’s Immunity Challenge, instead of walking straight to Probst, I’d put the necklace in Teeny and/or Genevieve’s hand and say “You beat me last week, you should get the honor of wearing the necklace at least once.”

Heading into this week’s episode, the biggest question in my mind is ‘Will Sol tell anyone he’s the one who gave Rachel the Advantage?’ I think it’s in his best interest not to say anything about it until he’s sitting at Final Tribal Council. If he comes clean, he exposes himself and Rachel as a possible alliance. I also agree with Rob C. and Stephen Fishbach when they said that Sol telling Rachel he saved her means Rachel now has HUGE incentive not to sit next to Sol in the finals. If he can take credit for keeping her in the game, why would anyone vote for her over Sol? Instead, I think Sol should try to make others believe either Sam or Sierra saved Rachel. It’s a plausible lie, and creates another reason to remove one of the Gata members before going after Sol. Andy will certainly be down for that.

How is Sol gonna play it? Will he blow up his own game, or will he take a step towards being the last male standing?

And away we go ....

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The first words in the “previously on” segment are “It was Sam.” That’s who I think is getting voted out tonight.

Rachel: “I hope I didn’t piss anybody off.” Why would you piss anyone off? You got saved by someone else. They’ll be mad at whoever saved you, not at you.

Sol comes clean to Rachel. Bad move, Sol. Sure, you may have gained a partner, but you’ve gained a partner who will figure out she can’t sit next to you in the finals. Sol just created a problem for himself. Now he has to remove Rachel before she tries to remove him.

Sam in confessional: “The Gata-Tuku war is coming.” Yeah, he has no idea Andy and maybe Genevieve are already plotting against him.

Sol chops open a coconut, but the juice tastes pretty bad. We’re seeing a different side of Sol now. It’s good to get to know the real Sol ... the one not being haunted/hunted by Rome.

Oh yeah, the Survivor Auction is back. I wonder if any of these players read my column on how to win New Era Survivor ... which was posted well after they finished playing. If so, they’ll know to spend all their money like Dee did in 45. They all got to see that entire season, so they should know what’s up.

Check out Sam doing his Rick Devens impersonation with his “Breaking News” segment.

It looks like nobody is making the mistake Bruce made in 45. Everybody is looking for money to spend. Sierra is piling up the cash. Will she be the one buying the $900 milk shake?

Andy walking past tube after tube reminds me of Russell Swan’s futile Idol hunt in Philippines. He even said he knew the Editors would include a shot of him walking right past the Idol (they did).

Ok, we all know what happened in 45’s Auction. Whoever had the most money left when Probst closed the Auction would lose their vote. He pulled a rock (he just loves rock draws) with a number on it, and that's how many items would be offered up. I’m hoping they do something different this time since the players should be aware of this twist. Sierra is the top dog in this season’s Auction. This might sound cruel, but part of me is hoping she ends up buying some Balut that costs her $1,060.

So absolutely nothing has been changed since the last Auction. This one has just become predictable. If they’re smart, everyone should spend all their money on one item and let someone else lose their vote. The five people with the most money (Sierra, Gabe, Teeny, Sol, and Kyle) and Andy are pretty much guaranteed to keep their votes. That’s pretty predictable.

Maybe it wasn’t such a good idea to have the players looking directly into the sun.

Ok, Probst gave the first item to whoever bid $60 first. That’s a little different from last time. Sol buys chips and a soda, and increases the chance he’ll lose his vote. That was a nice trap. What, they couldn’t get another Pringles sponsorship this time? Sierra doesn’t get it. She buys a covered item for $800 and doesn’t realize she set herself up to lose her vote. It’ll be tough for her to outbid anyone to get rid of the rest of her money now.

Kyle spent all but $20? Kyle doesn’t get it, either. If Kyle or Sierra get voted out, they deserve it.

Sol spends the rest of his money. Ok you redeemed yourself here, but you still shouldn’t have come clean to Rachel.

The best laugh of the night came when Gabe saw Sol’s apple pie.

Ahh, Sol gets stuck with an extra $60 bucks. I like this twist. I retract Sol’s redemption. He should have spent all his money on the chips.

Rachel has a slip of paper in her fries. Is it more money? What if it is more money, but she doesn’t open it until after the Auction is over?

Probst is killing the drama by reminding everyone who has the most money with every new item. He’s pretty much telling each person to spend all their money on that item. Once again, the Producer meddling is removing the player’s ability to make a decision for themselves.

Ok, I like the “Compete for Breakfast” twist. This makes the Auction a little less predictable.

At least Sam got to try another new food. Grubs with a blueberry pancake chaser. But he still has money left.

Caroline got a cash back penalty too.

I’m glad they’re fast forwarding through a few items. It’s starting to feel like this segment is taking up the whole episode.

Wow, Sierra didn’t pick Andy to share her peanut butter and chocolate. How much more can she alienate him? She knows he doesn’t have any money.

Sam loses his vote. My gut instinct is looking stronger now.

In prior Auctions, the players could only eat until the Auction was over. Probst didn’t say that this time. I wonder if they got to take their food back to camp with them?

Rachel gets an Idol and knows exactly where it is. I bet when Gabe, Sam, Rome and Sue watch this back they’re all gonna scream “That’s all she had to do????”

Hmm, just like I thought, the mere image of Kyle being the only one to wear the necklace last time has come back to haunt him. Teeny tied for first place last time, but Sierra believes Kyle won it all.

Wow, Genevieve knows the Gata women are strong players and would rather team up with the Tuku women. On one hand that’s a smart idea because it could take out someone who could beat her for the million. But on the other hand, she’d be trading down for a spot at the bottom of the Tukus. Assuming she’s got Andy with her, she’d be putting herself into a 4-2 hole. She’s also identifying herself as a player to be concerned about. Tuku would want to take Genevieve out before Andy.

And that’s exactly what Caroline is thinking.

Rachel pulls it off and grabs the Idol. This is a brand new one with purple beads. It’s not the one Rome or Gabe played. Those had red and blue beads respectively.

Last week, Rachel said her husband told her not to get voted out with an Idol or Advantage in her pocket. Will she know she’s a target? Things might be looking better for Sam.

Yup, there’s Kyle wearing the necklace at the Immunity Challenge. It looks like he didn’t take my advice. But of course, Teeny and Genevieve are standing all the way at the other end.

One woman and one man will have Immunity. That’s an improvement over the seven players who had Immunity last week.

We’ve seen this Immunity Challenge several times before. This is the one Gabler won in Survivor 43, when he kept dedicating the next minute to everyone he ever knew (and their pets). Gabler lasted 37 minutes. He started by bending slightly forward at the waist. Both he and Cody were able to do it one-handed after 25 minutes. This one wasn’t quite as hard as it looked for those two. So far, Kyle and Caroline are the only ones using Gabler’s form.

Sierra openly encouraging Sam isn’t very smart. She’s doing a horrible job of concealing their partnership.

Sam is out first. No vote, no Immunity, and it might be no more days in the game. Teeny and Genevieve go out seconds later. They both could win Immunity one week and totally erase the memory of their win this week by going out so early.

Caroline falls out and takes the long way to the sitout bench. Was she gonna go for a swim first? The first time I saw this, I thought a random production member was walking through the shot.

Sue wins Immunity, and immediately Sierra starts cheering for Andy. That’s a not-at-all subtle way of telling Kyle you want him gone.

This is the first Challenge in which Andy has performed well.

Kyle wins Immunity again when he had no idea how much he needed it. Yeah, Sam’s a goner.

I’m with Jeff Pitman on this one. How have these people not noticed how well Sue has done in most of these challenges?

I think Kyle killed his game. There’s no way anybody will pass up the first chance they get to vote him out. He labeled himself a beast in the very first challenge.

Rachel’s instincts might be tested. Will she pick up on the vibe that says Genevieve wants her gone? I’m thinking Sam is too attractive a target. Everybody knows he doesn’t have a vote and can’t play his Shot in the Dark.

Sierra to Andy: “We want to make sure you’re still strong with us.” But you also just told Andy the group decided to vote for Gabe, and Andy’s the last one to know. Nobody cared about his opinion. How much more can Sierra alienate Andy?

We’ve received a lot of Andy talking about his transformation, but almost nothing of Andy actually making a transformation. Sure, Genevieve approached him about making a move, but she’s the one doing all the planning. Has Andy talked to any of the Tukus yet? Why would anyone think Andy is pulling any strings? He has simply traded a bottom position with the Gatas for a bottom position with the Tukus ... and that’s if they even know he’s willing to vote with them!

Ok, here’s Andy talking with Caroline. But he says “Sam and Sierra see me as expendable.” Well Andy, the way you’re phrasing it, why shouldn’t Caroline see you as anything but expendable too?

Caroline is in a good position, but I’m not sure she’s doing any string pulling either. Last week she fell into a swing vote position, and this week, Sierra practically dropped Andy into her lap (with an assist from Genevieve, who is also using Andy).

Andy in confessional: “They’re (Sam and Sierra) gonna think ‘Damn, Andy did that.’” No, they’re gonna think “Who pulled Andy away from us?”

Gabe in confessional: “I see Sierra as the head of the Gata snake.” Wait a minute, just one day ago you were saying Rachel was the most dangerous Gata. What happened to that thought?

Now Genevieve and Caroline are trying to flip the target back to Rachel. This target is bouncing around almost as much as in Fiji when Alex, Edgardo and Mookie were the targets. That’s my favorite episode of all time. But this one still feels like a Sam boot to me.

Rachel is picking up on the bad vibes. She’d better listen to her husband again. I think she’s gonna play her Idol, and Sam will get booted with 2 or 3 votes. Then later on, Andy will try to take credit for it, and everyone will laugh.

Sitting through Tribal Council feels like a waste. The only question I have is ‘Will Rachel play her Idol?’ Let’s get to the vote already. Even Probst’s question (“Who feels uncomfortable?”) had a predictable response. You’re a fool if you don’t raise your hand. Sol saw all the hands go up, then raised his hand.

They go to vote, and my impression is that Teeny is in the best overall position. Everyone is still sharing information with Teeny, even moreso than Caroline. Teeny’s opinion is the most valued.

Probst asks for any Idols or Advantages. Rachel speaks up. You go girl!

But she played her Shot in the Dark? Why? You have guaranteed safety!

Oh, I see what she’s doing. She’s reading the room. If anybody looks relieved that she’s not safe, Rachel will know people voted for her. She can still play her Idol.

But she holds on to it. She’s trusting her gut instinct, and I’m loving it more than McDonald’s. I don’t really love McDonald’s, but you know what I mean.

It’s a 4-4 tie between Sam and Sierra!

Wow, a Survivor first. Sierra has to participate in the revote. Everyone knows she has to vote for Sam. This one is a no-brainer, but it still feels like Sierra will catch some votes.

Sierra leaves in the revote. I was wrong, Sierra caught all of the votes. I think Sam got lucky. Andy thinks he’s the one who got it done.

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Recap

Sierra set up the conditions for her failure, but I don’t think it was because of how she treated Andy. I think it was because she and Sam stood out too much as a power couple. Lavo and Tuku members picked up on it long before they ever shared a camp with the duo. Whatever they were doing to conceal their partnership failed miserably.

Then again, it may have been Anika’s big mouth that doomed them both. When Anika went on her journey with Kyle and Rome, one of the first things she told them was “They both have couples back home. Sam is actually engaged. They made a tight bond.” Kyle and Rome relayed that info to their tribes. But then, then, again again, Sam and Sierra knew the other tribes were suspicious. Something as subtle as sitting next to each other at last week’s Reward might have been all it took to confirm everyone’s suspicions. Keeping Andy around instead of Jon did end up hurting them, but I don’t think that was the fatal move.

I’ve got to give major props to Rachel. I didn’t even think of using her Shot in the Dark to get a read on the room. That was an absolutely brilliant move. The SITD has little chance of paying off if used as designed. Rachel’s innovative move enabled her to keep the Idol nobody knows she has. Even though her name wasn’t written down, she knows she’s still a target. Sierra leaving might help keep Rachel safe for a vote or two because I think they’ll go after a Tuku next. But she showed me she’s got excellent instincts.

I’m also liking Teeny’s position. Teeny is very low on everyone’s radar. The fact that Teeny, Sol and Genevieve weren’t united on this vote will also serve to keep Teeny safe.

While I was wrong about the eventual boot, sitting through the episode firmly believing Sam was a goner made it just a tad bit less entertaining for me. It still felt predictable.

What do you think? What else could have contributed to Sam and Sierra’s setback? Do you think Andy deserves more credit than I’m giving him? Was it Sol who successfully pushed the votes away from Rachel? Why did Sierra stand out as a bigger target than Sam? Let me know in the comments.