As I write this intro the day before this season’s finale, I can’t help but be overcome by seeing the similarities between Rachel’s position and Dee and Jesse’s in seasons 45 and 43 respectively. Like Rachel, Jesse and Dee were both the clear frontrunners as they entered the final 5. The jurors and remaining players all knew they’d played the most impressive game. Everyone except maybe Austin knew the frontrunner had to go. Jesse fell short when he lost final 4 Immunity to Cassidy and then lost the fire challenge to Gabler, who was chomping at the bit to take Jesse out. Dee had set herself up so well, she might not have had to build a fire in any scenario. But she was clutch and won the final 4 Immunity Challenge. From there, she was able to improve her position by weakening Austin’s chance to impress the jury by not letting him make a fire.

Dee won her season and Jesse didn’t. So, for those who like to “read the edit” what exactly does this mean for Rachel? Will she continue to dominate, win the final 4 Immunity Challenge and throw Sam and Teeny into the Fire Challenge, guaranteeing at least one player capable of getting some votes won’t be there at the end? Or will she become the newest “robbed God/Goddess who suffers a devastating loss just short of Final Tribal Council? A final 4 Immunity or Fire Challenge loss could easily put Rachel in that position.

Either scenario could play out for Rachel. Sue, Sam and Teeny (in that order) have all done fairly well at Immunity Challenges. Sue already has one win under her belt. And most forget that Teeny also has a win. Teeny and Genevieve tied for first place in a split-squad challenge after they outlasted Kyle who was on the other squad.

That being said, the most interesting final 3 for me is the one least likely to happen - Rachel, Sam and Teeny. Sam has support on the jury (Sierra, Genevieve, maybe even Andy), and everyone on the jury likes Teeny, especially Sierra and Sol. But I just don’t see anyone throwing Sue into the fire challenge. This of course means Rachel, Teeny or Sam is gonna be the last juror. I think Rachel has played the best game this season, so I’m hoping she pulls it out. But I won’t be shocked if she falls short. “The edit” could be leading us to either conclusion.

So, what else is worth discussing entering the finale? I’m enjoying this season a little more than last season. I ranked Season 46 at #24 overall, so season 47 will rank higher. I’m glad nobody quit or was medevaced this season. There’s always a little something missing when somebody (Parvati, Fabio, Michele) wins after being spared multiple Tribal Councils.

Unless Sue pulls it out, we’ll have another winner from a younger age range. We’ve had 22 winners between 20 and 29, and 19 winners between 30 and 39. Also, barring a Sue win, this season’s winner will have merged from a minority position. Tuku had the numbers at both mergatory and the “official” merge. This will also be another season where the perceived challenge beast (Kyle) failed to win.

We haven’t seen someone win the Loved Ones Challenge and go on to win the million since Tommy in 39, and Tommy won that challenge with his partner Janet, so he didn’t exclusively have to deprive others of contact with their loved ones. Sam could break that streak. Several players got labeled a “leader” this season (Anika, Aysha, Sol, Sierra and Sam). Sam is the only one to make the final 5. There wasn’t really a master manipulator this season. By my count, Rachel (Andy & Genevieve) controlled two votes as did Genevieve (Kishan & Sol). But I’ll split credit when I think two players deserve credit. For example, I think Sam and Sierra played equal roles in removing Jon. I also think some players make themselves too obvious a target and get themselves booted. TK is a good example here.

If Sam wins the game without winning Immunity, he’ll be the 13th player to do so. 12 others have won the million with only 1 Immunity win. 25 winners out of 47 tells me you just don’t have to be good at challenges to win Survivor, but it helps a lot if you can win towards the end. Then again, 17 players have won the most challenges in their season and gone on to win the million. Dee was the most recent to do so. Rachel (who’d be tied with Kyle) could do it this season if she wins one more. And speaking of Kyle, he and Genevieve are the two latest to win the first Individual Immunity Challenge but fail to win the game. Teeny tied with Genevieve in that challenge and could join Kenzie and Gabler in breaking that trend (only 8 winners have done this).

Entering the finale, Sam has had 10 votes cast against him. If he ends up winning, only Ben will have received more votes among winners along the way. Rachel has 3 votes, Sue 2, and Teeny 1. Rachel, Sue and Sam all held Idols this season. In the 36 seasons that have had Idols, 20 winners held at least one. 11 of those 20 used their Idols, but only 8 of them played their Idols for themselves. And only 3 of those 8 (Mike, Jeremy and Ben) saved themselves with an Idol. Rachel could join that group this season. This season had 6 Idols in circulation, which is one more than Seasons 44 and 45, but one less than Season 46. Only one of this season’s Idols (Gabe’s) returned to the game (it was found by Sue). 3 men and 2 women found Idols, and the 6th was a shared Idol between Andy, Caroline and Teeny. And NOBODY got voted out while holding an Idol. Maybe these people are listening to me now.

I keep a list of bonehead moves – moves that can be directly linked to a player’s failure. This is a move that is so obviously a mistake because there are no positives that can be seen from the moment of conception. #1 on my list is Woo taking Tony to the finals instead of Kass in Cagayan. Even Woo himself acknowledged this, saying “I mean Kass, I’d be the STUPIDEST Survivor player taking Tony to the end. Most ridiculous” before the Final Immunity Challenge. Nothing this season qualified for making my list except maybe Genevieve confirming to Teeny her Idol was a phony. Nothing good could come from that. Andy telling Rachel why he played such a good game wasn’t smart either. That probably changed her mind from booting Sam. Maybe Rachel will confirm that after the winner is announced when Probst questions everyone. Hopefully she won’t have a mouth full of pizza when she answers.

That’s all the stats, stories, theories and opinions I’ve got for now. Let’s see if Rachel can close this out.

And away we go ....

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There’s a whole lotta Rachel in the “previously on” recap, and nothing about Sam, Teeny or Sue.

Teeny: “Genevieve is gone and I’m riding the highest high of my life.” I know a lot of the audience dislikes Teeny. I’ve even heard some claim “Teeny hates men.” That’s just silly to me considering her two closest partners were Kishan and Sol who (shocker) are men. I can buy that Teeny got really angry at Sam, but that’s a long, LONG way away from “Teeny hates men.”

Cool, a massive marathon Final Immunity Challenge with a hanging Bat puzzle at the end. Every Final Immunity Challenge should have physical and strategic elements to it. We’ve seen the hanging Bat puzzle before. I’d have preferred to see a puzzle with more pieces. It looks like this one only has about 20 pieces. Sam has the advantage because most of this is physical.

Rachel has been the fastest knot-un-tier this season.

Wow, Sam is the last to hook his gate. I thought this would give him the lead.

Probst: “Sue falls through her gate, that’s 25 days of exhaustion!” No Jeff, that’s too much mud on her hands.

Who’d have figured Sam would solve the word puzzle first, and Rachel would own the physical parts? Props to Rachel for sneaking a peek before Sam can cover it up. That’s the advantage of having a middle lane. Teeny looks at Rachel’s puzzle when she solves it. But Sam gets a head start on the puzzle, which I think he’ll need.

Teeny is as good with a machete as Andy. I counted at least 10 chops.

Rachel takes a peek at Sam’s puzzle as soon as she starts. Smart move, girl.

Probst: “Sue has one Immunity win. Teeny hasn’t won.” Even he forgot about that merge co-win with Genevieve.

Sam stops to watch Rachel when she’s got 2 pieces left. Bad move, dude ‘cause she had it wrong. But she finds her mistake and fixes it. This was a blowout. Sam had about 8 pieces left. I think even Teeny passed him.

Rachel wins Immunity and the million. 4 Immunity wins. That’s impressive. She has dominated this post-merge game socially, strategically and phycially. The only way she can lose is by saying the wrong thing at Tribal Council…or maybe screwing up and putting herself in the fire challenge to take out Sam and losing. I don’t think she’ll do that.

Sam walks off before Probst is done talking. Has he already checked out?

Rachel leaves no mystery to it. Teeny and Sam are making fire. Rachel knows winning at fire doesn’t help or hurt her chances. Again, that’s the strategically smartest call she chould make.

Teeny is sick of Sam trying to play mind games. What did you expect, Teeny? Sam has no other options. You should be doing the same thing.

Sam: “It’s a shame I don’t know how to make fire.” Rachel: “Oh my God, you’re annoying.”

Props to Rachel for coaching Teeny at making fire. Once again, that’s the best strategic decision.

Sue in confessional: “I’m gonna go with what Rachel wants to do and just relax tonight.” Once again, Sue confirms her follower status.

Sam is in panic mode. Maybe Teeny got into Sam’s head? How can you go on Survivor and NOT practice making fire? Maybe Sam was as arrogant as Teeny said he was. Did he think he’d never have to make a fire?

Third place gets $85k and fourth gets $50k. It’s worth it to practice making fire.

This Fire Challenge will be anti-climactic, but at least the winner has a shot at the second place $100k. I think Sue only has a legit shot at getting Caroline’s vote.

Yeah, these jurors are on Rachel’s side.

Probst pimps Rachel’s cause by mentioning how she tied the female Immunity record with Kelly Wiglesworth, Jenna Morasca, Kim Spradlin and Chrissy Hofbeck.

Sam: “The necklace doesn’t win you the million bucks.” Very true. At Final Tribal Council, you have to answer questions and tell your jurors what they want to hear. You can’t just climb a palm tree in 10 seconds, grab a coconut and say, “Now vote for me.” But I think Rachel’s lead is too big to overcome. The social/strategic game will almost always prevail over the physical game.

Rachel talking about Sue’s loyalty was smart. It totally justifies her decision to take Sue to the end, while simultaneously saying “I could take out Sam myself” without coming off as cocky. It also cemented Sue’s goat status.

Teeny takes the red station, Sam takes yellow. I actually compiled some stats here. Red has 2 wins and 2 losses, yellow has 2 wins and 1 loss. But I admit my list isn’t complete. Kenzie and Gabler had yellow when they won. Heather lost with yellow. Tony and Jake won with red. Jesse and Liz lost with red. I have Blue at 2-2, Purple at 1-1 and Orange at 1-2. I don’t know which player had which color in HHH, David vs Golliath, Edge of Extinction, or Island of the Idols. Feel free to fill me in if you have that info.

Rachel is openly coaching Teeny. The wind is always a factor. Teeny sparks a fire first, but it’s being blown to the side. But the wind subsides and Teeny’s fire grows quickly.

Wow, Sam pulled it out! The wind decided this one. I think the jurors were pulling for Teeny too. Sam’s fire wasn’t centered and was actually being blown towards his rope while Teeny’s was centered and being blown away from the rope.

I hate when Probst asks, “What is the feeling right now?” What do you think the feeling would be, joy and elation?

Sam: “The story of my game is resilience.” If that’s your story to the Jury, Rachel’s is better.

Sam chugs the champagne. I remember Sophie had the liquid courage to destroy Coach at Final Trial Council because she got tipsy before questioning began. But what can Sam say that will damage Rachel like Sophie damaged Coach?

I like seeing comments from the jurors, but the most truth comes in the negative things they have to say. Those statements were included in “The Jury Speaks” videos but aren’t included in the broadcast anymore. I really miss “The Jury Speaks” videos.

Kyle: “Sam found a way to find a way.” He just repeated what Sam said at the fire challenge. Is he leaning towards Sam now?

Gabe gets the first question. Will he throw Sue an easy question? “How do you think your game will be remembered?” That’s ok I guess, but hardly insightful.

Rachel “I was the most left-out person in this room.” She just owned the position that would have benefited Sam the best. I don’t know if that was intentional or not, but it was effective. Sam “I want to leave this game feeling proud of myself and other people admiring me.” That was NOT a good answer. That’s the arrogance Teeny was talking about, and it’s greeted by stone faces all around.

Sue: “It’s my birthday. I’m 59. I think Rachel and Sam are more impressed than the jurors, who are mildly nodding. Sue opened with her best shot and missed. Sue “I’m not dumb. I’m not Tweedle-Dee.” She STILL believes Andy’s lie. If Andy told the other jurors about that, Sue is even more done than most thought she was.

Rachel impresses everyone by admitting how she eavesdropped on 4 of the final 6. Sierra and Sol both had HUGE smiles when she said that. Sam tries to push back, by claiming their conversation was a rouse, but Teeny slams that door shut. Sam can’t prove he knew Rachel was listening. Advantage: Rachel.

Sam: “Our fake Idol ruse was great.” Teeny: “They didn’t believe you.” Rachel: “It didn’t matter to us because if it was real, you would have left.” Sue: “We didn’t think twice about it.” Sam is off to a lousy start.

Sol: “Tell me something I don’t know about your game.” Rachel: “I had everyone selling my game for me without me leaving the game.” GREAT answer, and it’s very true. At that final 6 Tribal Council, Genevieve said, “Rachel is an amazing player.” Sam said, “I adore Rachel.” Andy: “Rachel is an all-around superb Survivor player.” Teeny: “Rachel’s gonna beat me at fire if we get there.” I don’t know if any player has been praised like that and stayed in the game afterwards.

Sam: “I had to gas somebody up in front of everybody else so nobody was looking at me.” Rachel: “But the problem is you didn’t take the threat out. Saying you can’t beat someone then going to the end with them isn’t a smart strategy.”

Sam: “Nothing worked out perfectly for any of us.” Rachel: “I had the most final 3 deals.”

Andy: “Ben and Mike aren’t high on your winners list.” They’re not high on mine either.

Rachel: “I couldn’t convince people to do my bidding, but it forced me to find a different way to play the game.” Sam: “Rachel lost a lot of strategic agency which was the purpose of elevating her threat level.” That’s not a bad rebuttal, but I don’t think this jury thinks YOU raised Rachel’s threat level.

Sam is putting up a decent fight: “I got the most votes against me.” Rachel missed a chance to rebut him by saying “The objective is to NOT get votes against you. I was better at that.”

Rachel talking about her husband is a good rebuttal to Sam’s speech. Sam’s body language reflects defeat. That could resonate with Kyle, who is all about family.

Nobody seems to be interested in Sue’s game at all except Gabe. I thought Caroline would toss her a cookie too.

Sam had the least control after the merge, but he says he took control? I wouldn’t buy that. How can you be in control when you’re receiving regular votes?

This vote might be decided by whether or not Gabe and Caroline want to throw a vote to Sue. I think Rachel has Teeny, Sol, and Kyle. Genevieve and Sierra are leaning towards Sam. I can’t read Andy. But I’ve always been lousy at handicapping jurors. I still think Rachel has the edge though. Maybe a 4-3-1 split?

9:30. Time to see the votes. That means about 20 minutes of Aftershow.

Well, I was wrong about Kyle. His vote was based on his respect for Sam as a person.

Caroline goes for Rachel. She thoroughly respected Rachel’s strategy and Idol play. A blowout win for Rachel! 7-1-0. I told you I was lousy at handicapping.

I wish there was a way to include the pre-merge boots at these reunions, especially since everyone is trying to get included in Season 50. It probably costs too much to keep them around for 2 weeks.

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Aftershow

I hope the jurors explain their votes. We get the most honesty from them when they haven’t been exposed to social media abuse yet.

Wow, did Probst just say exactly what I said? Am I actually agreeing with him, or does he read “Screaming at the Screen?”

Almost nobody is eating when the Aftershow starts. Maybe they listened to Jeff Pitman and gave them an hour or so before questioning them.

I agree that Andy made a great recovery from falling apart on day 3. But I still think he absolutely killed any chance he had of winning because of that.

Probst “Teeny, you really impressed me with how you carried yourself.” Hmm, does that mean Teeny has an inside shot at coming back? I do.

I see a lot of Probst-favored Alpha males in the Survivor 48 cast. No surprise there.

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Recap

I’m glad Rachel won. She played the best game by far. Not nearly as good as Dee, but pretty damn good. She got knocked down early at the Anika vote and hit hard again at mergeatory. She had some luck to stay in the game, but I think her social game affected that luck. SOMETHING made Sol want to save her. Also to her credit, Rachel made all the adjustments necessary to simultaneously reduce the size of the target on her back and find a way to insulate herself while gaining new allies. And most importantly, she knew when to STOP trusting some of those allies.

Rachel won this game the night she played her Idol. She had everyone left in the game talking about how great she was playing. That wouldn’t have happened if more people knew about her Idol. They all thought she was done and held a funeral for her. I can’t think of a better reason for future players NOT to tell anyone when they find an Idol…except maybe Jeremy and Kelley’s Idol plays in Cambodia. Rachel probably hammered the point home when she revealed how she spied on the others to gain the information she needed to optimize her Idol play. That proved she used skill and strategy as opposed to relying on luck and challenge wins.

And speaking of challenge wins, Rachel becomes the sixth person to win Survivor while winning four Immunity Challenges, joining Jenna, Boston Rob, Fabio, Kim and Tony (Winners At War).

Sam did have a pretty damn good Final Tribal Council, but I guess it was a case of too little, too late. Nothing could overcome the lead Rachel built for herself after playing her Idol. He couldn’t even sway his two closest allies Sierra and Genevieve.

So, who has the best shot at making Season 50 from this cast? I’ve already mentioned Teeny. Teeny was very liked by the other players, and clearly impressed Probst. The audience didn’t have a positive reaction to Teeny, but since when does Probst listen to the audience? I also think Andy’s “transformation” is a story Probst would like to continue. Andy and Teeny have the best “can they learn from their mistakes?” potential. That’s probably what got Penner, Candice, Sarah, Erik R., Brenda, Troyzan, and Colton a second shot. Beyond those two, the most memorable player was easily Rome. Producers know he’ll provide something that will get an audience reaction. Sierra and Sam have the best eye-candy factor working for them. I don’t think anybody else in this cast has a stronger chance than them, even if I think some of them were better overall players.

I enjoyed this season mostly because it was unpredictable most of the way. Rachel emerged late enough to not make it obvious as late as final 9. What do you think? Did you think Sam had talked himself into more votes? Who do you think is in the mix for season 50. Let me know in the comments.

I’ll be back next season. I love talking about Survivor, and I’m enjoying writing about it too. I hope you enjoy reading my spontaneous, very-often totally wrong thoughts on Survivor.