Last week, Andy raised a bunch of eyebrows by pitching a plan with so many holes it was destined to fail ... until it worked. But because of circumstances he can’t control (and one he doesn’t know about), Andy’s position actually got worse for the next two votes. But more on that later. I want to discuss a more alarming development from last week’s episode.

Sue, Caroline, Teeny and Rachel carried Wardog’s log and burned it in the fire! So, I thought this would be a good time to pay proper tribute to the death of Wardog’s log.

In my eyes, Wardog’s log was a historical Survivor landmark. It’s been in Fiji since before Wardog even played in Edge of Extinction. It has been the location of many memorable strategic discussions that forged or changed the direction of the game. I always knew something significant was gonna happen if they were discussing it while sitting on Wardog’s log. The log got its name of course because Dan “Wardog” DaSilva chose that location for his strategy sessions. It became a favorite Production location for many seasons.

Winners At War – Sarah and Tony argued over Sarah giving up her Reward to Nick while seated on that log. Later that season, Tony talked Jeremy into helping blindside Sophie on that log. Season 41 - Xander and Voce took an influential break during their Sweat Challenge. I’m sure Jelinsky was inspired to take future breaks there while watching them resting on that comfy tree.

Wardog’s log was even there to witness the birth of the Q Skirt from last season. Oh, to be a fly on the log in Fiji.

So, imagine my horror when I took a closer look (thanks to Jeff Pitman for providing the pictures), and realized it was not always the same log! That’s right, I was fooled by cleverly disguised replacement logs. I take pride in having a sharp eye for crucial details like this, but I have no choice but to admit I was wrong. I guess the Survivor Production Department is under orders to bring in a new log just as often as they remodel Tribal Council. I wonder if there have been as many different logs as torch snuffers for Probst? Do the new logs have to go through the casting process? Do they have to prove they can comfortably hold the weight of at least 6 players? Do they have to sign a non-disclosure agreement too? I’m gonna have to start looking for Wardog logs when Survivor items go up for auction again. Ethan Zohn has a lot of Survivor memorabilia. I wonder if he's got one?

Now that the island power source for strategic thought has been removed, how are these remaining players gonna make their way to the end? Will Rachel know which player’s vote she should block without that log to stimulate her mind? Sue has lost the two main strategists she was following in Gabe and Caroline. Is she destined to be blindsided while holding her Idol because she doesn’t have a log to sit on while she weighs her options? Did Andy’s plan work purely because the log wasn’t there to help the women see through the deception? Will the newest imposter log suddenly appear to fill the void created by having an extra episode this season? Let’s find out.

Back to Andy. I say his position got weaker because he has alienated Rachel, Sue and Teeny, and he knows Rachel can block someone’s vote. He has to know he has locked himself in with Sam and Genevieve, and one of them will probably be leaving tonight. Andy also doesn’t know Rachel and Sue are both holding Idols. Since Sue is looking for a new strategy spirit guide, she’s either gonna play her Idol tonight, or tell Teeny and Rachel about it as a means of remaining in the majority at final 5. Andy also stuck his strategic head up by publicly claiming this move at Tribal Council. There are a lot of factors working against Andy. Did his Emily Flippen-esque move just guarantee his seat on the Jury? Let’s find out.

Oh yeah, last week I said Gabe was the one who said “Andy flipped again” after Andy said “I’ll explain” when Caroline was voted out. I was wrong. It was Sol who said it. Gabe looked back and reacted. Sol didn’t seem impressed by that move. Sol’s word carries a lot of weight with Sierra and Kyle, who both like him a lot. That could work against Andy too, should he make it to the end. Can you tell I think Andy is leaving tonight?

And away we go ...

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I don’t care for Probst’s “season recaps” at the top of every finale, but I understand why they’re necessary. Not everyone pays as close attention to things as I do.

Rachel, Sue and Teeny should nod and smile at whatever Andy says to them. If he wants to think he’s fooled them all and earned their trust back, let him.

Andy goes to hang out with Sam and Genevieve after returning to camp. That’s 100% the wrong thing to do. Andy “If you two cut me at 5, I’m gonna puke my guts out.” If it comes down to a choice between you and one of them, that’s exactly what they’re gonna do.

Sue: “Andy flipped. I have no respect for people who flip-flop like that.” Teeny: “I’m so pissed at him.” Will Andy fool himself into thinking he smoothed things over with them?

Teeny: “It seemed like Sam and Genevieve knew this was gonna happen.” Teeny saw through the lie, but Sam’s explanation actually sounds plausible. Sam sold the cover story, not Andy.

Teeny in confessional “I don’t trust anybody.” But it sounds like Teeny is gonna work to get rid of Rachel. Reason #1 why Rachel was very smart to NOT tell anyone about her Idol.

But Rachel channels her inner Queen Sandra and eavesdrops on the foursome. This is a game-winning move for Rachel. Sandra did this in Pearl Islands and Heroes vs Villains and won both seasons. Now that Rachel knows what’s up, Rachel is in full control of who leaves. They don’t know Rachel is there. I bet they’d have heard her if they were sitting on Wardog’s log.

Rachel confirms that players can’t see anything when the night vision cameras are following them. I still don’t believe Domenick was able to find an Idol at ankle height in a bush off the foot path in Ghost Island but wasn’t also able to read the Idol note. I’ve watched that sequence a few times, and I could see shadows from the camera lights when he found his Idol. Maybe they’ve got better cameras now.

Rachel to Sue: “Teeny was semi left out, but Andy was 100% in on it.” Again, this is why it was a horrible decision for Andy to immediately walk off with Sam and Genevieve. Rachel’s read is spot on. Rachel is easily this season’s best player. Yes Pedro, this moves Rachel up the scale by a lot.

Now all Rachel has to do is come up with a good lie to feed to Teeny, who will then feed it to Andy, Sam and Genevieve.

Sue is crushed after losing Caroline. News flash Sue, Survivor is an individual game from day 1. You needed more than 2 partners to have a chance at winning this game.

DAMMIT Rachel! She tells Sue she has an Idol. There was ZERO reason to do that, even if you felt bad for Sue’s panic digging. You already had Sue’s trust when you told her about your Block A Vote. You’re not gonna put Sue on the Jury, so it’s not like this can lock up her vote there either. This was a maximum risk/zero reward move. Now word can get out if Sue lets it slip – intentionally or not. Now your Idol can be flushed if they decide to vote for Sue. I was so excited to finally see someone keep their mouth shut about an Idol up until the moment they used it. Dammit!

I’m so upset!

Dammit!

I see a puzzle at the end of this challenge. Rachel and Caroline were puzzle-making masters in the pre-merge challenges. Genevieve: “I don’t like these kinds of puzzles.” Rachel: “I do.”

Rachel is in the middle, which means at least 2 people can copy off of her puzzle. Sue dives in way in front of her buoy and has to swim back to get it. This one was pretty clearly a “jump in feet first” setup.

Genevieve is doing ok on this puzzle. Earlier this season, Genevieve did little more than hand pieces to Rome as he failed to place one piece correctly on a fire puzzle. This confirms my suspicion that Rome threw that challenge because he wanted to get rid of Sol, even if Rome wouldn’t admit to it in his exit press. Genevieve had little reason to try hard because she knew she wasn’t gonna leave at that vote anyway.

And there’s Andy and Teeny copying off of Rachel’s puzzle.

Genevieve wins Immunity. It’s time for Rachel to start acting by looking defeated. She should go out on a fake Idol hunt as soon as she returns to camp. If Andy and Sam follow her, she should pretend to be annoyed.

Sam tells Genevieve not to take him along. That makes this a no-brainer for Genevieve. Take Sue and Teeny. And that’s exactly who she takes.

Rachel might use both of her Advantages. Her Block A Vote expires after this vote, so there’s no reason not to use it. But since Teeny has flipped, the blocked vote won’t make a difference no matter who she blocks. But wouldn’t it be funny if the other 3 did a 2/1 vote split, and Andy got booted because of it?

Rachel’s position would be so much stronger if Sue didn’t know she had an Idol. Dammit!

Once again, in confessional, Genevieve says “I don’t want to be too aggressive.” Then the first thing she says is “I want to vote for Rachel. This woman is a walking contradiction.

Teeny goes straight for the wine ... again.

Teeny exposes Genevieve’s Idol (which she doesn’t know is a phony). Again, this is why it’s better not to tell anyone when you have an Idol. But it worked out well for Genevieve since it’s a fake. This is why Teeny shouldn’t have believed Genevieve’s Idol was real when she flashed it last week. If someone knows they’re in trouble and has an Idol, the last thing they’d do is tell people about it.

Rachel is putting on a pretty good act by coming close to tears about losing Immunity. But I think part of this is sincere. Then Rachel confirms she’s acting. Sam says he’d vote for you if you’re there, and in confessional, says he was telling the truth. Good job, sister! Rachel is a better actor than Sam and Andy.

Rachel in confessional: “I want to be real with Andy.” DON’T TELL HIM YOU HAVE AN IDOL!!!!!!

Wait, did Rachel say “Final 2?”

(Post episode, quote-checking rewatch: Yes, she said “If you and Sam sat there as a final 2, you would win hands down”).

Is Andy seriously considering voting for Sam? Rachel, I know you want to save your Idol for final 5, but this move is too risky. If you believe Andy is voting for Sam, you deserve to get “Season 46’d” aka voted out while holding an Idol. Take the guaranteed safety, play your Idol and send Sam home yourself!

Damn, what happened to Genevieve’s shoulders?

Rachel and Sue to Andy: “We won’t vote you out at 5 if you save Rachel tonight.” I’m not sure if Andy is buying it, but if he does, major kudos to Rachel. Whether or not he want to take the deal, Andy should say he’s in as a means of helping make sure their votes go to Sam.

Rachel is talking to Sue about playing her Idol. Rachel, if you can eavesdrop on someone else, they can do the same thing to you. You shouldn’t have told Sue about your Idol.

In confessional, Sue confirms she’s now following Rachel’s lead. “I’m gonna go with what she wants to do.”

If Sam leaves, this gives us an intriguing 2 vs 2 with Teeny in the middle.

Andy tells Rachel he’s voting for her, and now is trying to turn Rachel into his jury lobbyist. I think Rachel sees right through this. Andy, your best jury advocates are Sam or Genevieve. This could only backfire on you, even if Rachel was leaving.

Rachel is weighing booting Andy or Sam. Either way, Teeny is in the middle at the next vote. And speaking of Teeny, not one person has written “Teeny” on their parchment yet. Is it because Teeny is so well-liked, or does Teeny have zero respect? Teeny has been included in most of the voting plans, even if it didn’t happen until the 11th hour. Teeny only missed on Aysha and Caroline. Teeny didn’t have a vote when Kishan was blindsided.

Teeny opens Tribal Council by admitting the deception was complete. “There’s been a lot of votes when I haven’t known what was going on. I didn’t understand how Caroline went home.” Teeny was fooled. Then Rachel literally calls BS on Teeny and Sam by telling the Jury “Andy flipped. I don’t know why we’re pretending we don’t know what happened,” which probably earned a ton of Jury respect for her. And Teeny lost a lot.

Andy: “Did I flip? Yes.” Sierra, Sol and Caroline all nod their heads.

Rachel tells the Jury Sue is in on the plan without telling them there is a plan. Andy buries himself more by bragging about how much he fooled Rachel (which he really didn’t).

Andy: “Rachel and I have a powerful personal connection.” If Sierra could speak, her expression says she’d be calling BS here too.

Genevieve is taking the bait too. Andy calls her a “superb Survivor player,” Genevieve says “Rachel’s an amazing player.” Sam: “I adore Rachel.” Teeny: “Rachel is going to beat me at fire.” Rachel’s Jury credibility will skyrocket after she plays her Idol. If Rachel reaches the finals, she’s unbeatable. She’s in the Jesse position from 43 without playing as good a game as he played.

But Rachel’s performance at this Tribal Council is awesome.

Andy is talking pretty loud as he compliments Rachel in the booth. If the Jury can hear him, it only helps Rachel’s her cause.

Rachel’s Block A Vote had almost zero impact. I think Jeff Pitman may have been right. Since Teeny flipped and Rachel’s Advantage won’t swing this vote, she might have been better served for waiting until Tribal Council to tell the Jury about it. Then again, since she already spilled that secret to Caroline, Sue and Andy, that revelation might not have any thunder at Final Tribal Council either.

Rachel grabs her Idol, and Sam’s reaction reveals he had no clue. That might have killed Sam’s chances too. Sierra, Sol, Kyle and Caroline are all smiling. And Rachel’s handshake with Sue as she returns tells the Jury Sue is the only one who knew about it.

The first vote for Andy is shown and Caroline whispers “Fuck yeah.” That tells me these jurors wanted Andy gone, and they approve of Rachel’s decision.

Andy gets booted, and it looks like the jurors respect this decision.

Sol: “That was awesome.” Gabe: “Yeah, that was pretty cool.” Kyle: “We’ve got ourselves a game.”

Bye, Andy.

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Mini recap

Rachel’s play was near Survivor perfection. It only would have been better if Sue was never in on the plan. I know she’s a goat already but if the Jury saw how shocked she was, that would only have been better for Rachel.

Andy did it to himself. While I don’t agree that flippers never win (Danni, Parvati, who hasn’t Tony flipped on?), I don’t think you can flip and win after being on the bottom for so long. Andy got himself clipped with his move on Caroline. He raised his mole head and got it chopped off.

Yeah, Rachel won over the Jury with this move. 5 smiles on 5 faces. What can anybody left say or do that will be more impressive than this? I even think Andy took it well and Rachel has the best shot at getting his vote.

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Back to blow-by-blow reactions.

Yeah, it’s Sam & Genevieve vs Rachel & Sue. Depending on who wins Immunity, Teeny decides who leaves.

Rachel is out Idol hunting, and nobody is smart enough to follow her? What are these people thinking?

They search Rachel’s bag right after they agree she’s out looking for an Idol? Why on earth would it be in her bag if she’s out looking for one?

Sue thinks she’s gonna blow everyone away when she plays her Idol. No matter how surprised everyone may be, she won’t outshine Rachel’s move.

When Sam searched Rachel’s bag he looked through her yellow, long sleeve top. But when Genevieve finally decided to follow her, Rachel was wearing that top. This means nobody followed her until she returned to camp and changed clothes. Unless she has two identical yellow long sleeve tops. That’s totally possible. It could also explain why players can wear one set of clothes in a mud challenge, then 5 minutes later those same clothes are spotless.

If players can have multiple pieces of the same clothing, why can’t they have multiple Wardog logs?

If Rachel wins this war with Genevieve, I think she gets Genevieve’s vote too.

Sam, Sue and Teeny all think they can beat Rachel. They’re wrong, but I understand why they feel insulted by Rachel and Genevieve arguing over which one of them will win. Just the same, the three of them should remove Rachel and Genevieve in that order if they can (but I still think Rachel is gonna make a fire). None of them should make the ego-driven mistake of wanting to prove they can beat Rachel. Didn’t any of them look at the Jurors when Rachel played her Idol? And wasn’t Sam and Teeny talking about how unbeatable Rachel would be just last night? Wasn’t Teeny just telling Sue and Genevieve Rachel would win at the end too?

Another repeat Immunity Challenge. We’ve seen the end of this one twice. Michele won it in the Juror Elimination Challenge in Kaoh Rong, and Domenick won it at Ghost Island final 4.

Sam and Sue are smart for digging from the side there’s already a lot of sand gone there.

I think Rachel has the steadiest hands for this kind of challenge. She proved that in the “Paddle” challenge two episodes ago. She also excels at relaxing and taking her time.

Rachel wins Immunity again, and Sue says “You go, girl!” One more win and Rachel wins the game. Genevieve is a goner for sure. She’s got at least two votes from Rachel and Sue. Sam knows her Idol is a phony, and now he has zero reason to keep that a secret anymore. Keeping that secret only means he’s more likely to get booted.

Sam in confessional: “Genevieve has to go tonight.”

Sam tells Teeny about Genevieve’s phony Idol. That’s fine, but why not just tell Rachel and Sue too? Does Sam think they won’t believe him?

Teeny confronts Genevieve about the phony Idol. And like an idiot, Genevieve admits it’s a fake. What the hell are you thinking Genevieve???? I think Genevieve just sealed her own coffin.

Teeny says her gut has been wrong so much. She should do like George Costanza did on Seinfeld, and do the exact opposite of whatever that gut instinct says to do. Even though Teeny has been fooled, everyone is still including Teeny in on their voting plans.

I say pile the votes on the person you want gone the most. If that’s not your criteria, then vote for the person most likely to win Immunity. Geneieve has done better at these challenges than Sam has.

20 minutes left in the episode. There won’t be a tie vote, so why will this Tribal Council take so long? Maybe the cliffhanger will be a possible medevac after the vote. That’s what happened to Ice Cream Scooper Erik in Caramoan. I think he had a legit chance of beating Cochran that season, by the way.

Tribal council #2 Let’s see how many jurors are smiling when they see Rachel won Immunity. Sierra and Sol look impressed, but they’re already on Rachel’s side. Sierra seemed VERY happy for Rachel.

Probst mentions the blocked vote from the last Tribal Council, but I wonder how the jurors found out Rachel blocked Sam?

Teeny: (not a direct quote) “It’s been very easy to fool me.” That’s the message Teeny keeps sending to the jurors.

Sam: “If you want information out there, tell Teeny.” And with that comment, Teeny’s chances of winning are done. But I like Teeny’s show of humility and honesty. Humility goes a long way in Survivor.

Nobody is talking about Sam’s chances of winning either.

I can’t wait to see how the jurors react to Sue’s Idol. Will they actually be impressed, or apathetic? They know nobody is voting for her, so she won’t be saving herself at all.

Gabe is impressed by Sue’s play. Andy looks clueless. Caroline knew she had it. I wonder if she told all of the Jurors except Andy?

Bye, Genevieve.

Hmmm ... no cliffhanger.

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Recap after the mini-recap.

If Rachel reaches the finals, she wins the game. She’s got the best story of perseverance – she can say “I was supposed to miss the merge, then I was supposed to miss the Jury.” It doesn’t matter now that she survived both of those votes purely by the grace of someone else’s decisions, she has proven she’s got enough savvy to be the best at the “Outwit” portion by far. With 3 Immunity wins, she can also lay claim to the “Outplay” portion too. And there’s no doubt she’s got the triple crown with “Outlast.” Then again, who’s to say that’s the criteria the jurors will use? But of course, Rachel is also a short woman, too.

Teeny has killed almost any chance at a win. You just can’t keep telling your jurors “I didn’t know what was happening” that much and expect them to reward you over the people who fooled you, especially if those jurors fooled you themselves. Teeny of course needs Rachel gone to have any chance, but since Sam fooled Teeny too, I’m not sure who votes for Teeny over Sam unless Sam did too good a job of mentioning how powerless he was post-merge. A Teeny or Sam win seems dependent on a finals opponent making a huge mistake at Final Tribal Council.

Sue has no shot. She’s been labeled a goat for much too long. The only one Sue could beat was Andy. Gabe, Caroline and Rachel can all accurately claim Sue just followed their lead, and there are too many witnesses to confirm that. I’ll say it again, I can’t wait to see the yawns when Sue says “I’m really 59!”

Genevieve stuck her mole head up 5 votes ago. On the surface, it looks impressive that she lasted as long as she did, but it really wasn’t because of her own planning. There were just a lot of more attractive targets around.

Time for my not-at-all-humble brag. I got it right last week when I said, “Nobody trusts Andy or Genevieve, so unless one of them pulls out an Immunity win, I think they leave at 6 and 5.”

Anything but a win for Rachel seems anti-climactic. She’s done enough for me to say she’s played better than most New Era winners not named Dee. I’ll have to let it sink in. Let me know what you think about next week’s finale. Am I wrong about Sam, Sue or Teeny’s chances? Who wins if Rachel loses at fire?