18 players started this game, and 9 are left. Two have already joined the Jury. While this season’s players have been fairly chaotic and haphazard in their strategic approach, and there is no clear frontrunner, now is as good a time as any to evaluate how each remaining player has done so far and speculate on their chances of winning the million. Let’s go over their strengths and weaknesses, and how likely they are to get Sol or Sierra’s Jury votes. I’ll tackle them alphabetically.

Andy – He’s got no chance. Andy dealt himself a fatal blow to his credibility when he had a meltdown in front of every player in the game after the first Immunity Challenge. Sure, we’ve seen a lot of the game from Andy’s perspective. We’ve seen how he’s feeling more confident, isn’t afraid to throw out a name to target, or play in his own interests. Andy’s problem is the other players in the game are not seeing things the same way he’s seeing them, and he doesn’t know it. Andy is in a similar position as Xander was in Survivor 41. Xander held an Idol and was doing well in the challenges. He believed he was influencing the voting, and his threat level was growing steadily. But the other players saw him as a Goat. They didn’t care that he had an Idol. They didn’t mind it when he won Immunity because that meant they could vote out the real threats (Shantel, Ricard, Danny). Not a single player this season is worried about Andy winning Immunity or winning the million. Andy thinks he’s influencing the votes but most see him as a pocket vote. He’ll easily make it to the final 4 and has an excellent shot at making the finals. The only reason to put Andy in a fire challenge is because you want him to take out a bigger threat. But Andy won’t be able to talk his way into any votes because he’ll take credit for moves other players know he didn’t make. Sierra dismissed him her entire time in the game. I can’t see her voting for Andy over anyone else left. The same is true for Sol. Sol doesn’t dislike Andy. I just don’t think he’ll respect Andy’s game over anyone else’s.

Caroline – Her approach has been hard to read. In pre-season, she was very wary of Gabe who gave her very negative vibes. Yet all he had to do to lock her up as a partner was tell her he had an Idol. She’s been fiercely loyal to him ever since. She’s closer to Sue of course, but Sue didn’t tell Caroline about the Idol she found. When it comes to strategy, Caroline has been taking more cues from Gabe than she’s been giving. She comes up with solid plans but hasn’t been able to execute any of them yet. Caroline identified Rachel as the strongest player, but was easily convinced not to vote for her by Sol. When she lost her vote, she wanted to try and remove Kyle. Does Caroline have a plan? She’s in the most secure alliance, which is good, but she’s probably perceived as following Gabe’s plan as opposed to forming her own. Caroline is pretty well-liked by the remaining players, Sierra and Sol. Nobody is upset with her, which is sometimes all it takes to get a win. She’s positioned well but probably needs to take ownership of at least one vote out like winners Erika and Maryanne did. If Caroline is planning on sticking with Gabe and Sue to the end, she’ll need to do something to raise her respect level above Gabe’s at least. I don’t know if Sol or Sierra see Caroline as pulling any of the strings either, but at the same time, I could see her winning over anyone else left in the game. She’s very eloquent and should perform well under jury questioning.

Gabe – He started out a little behind everyone. In pre-game, several players cited Gabe’s reluctance to smile or make eye contact as a reason to be wary of him. To his credit, Gabe formed the strongest and most loyal alliance with Sue and Caroline. Gabe put in the work to find an Idol, but was so noisy and clumsy about it, everyone knew what he was up to. That got him targeted by Tiyana. If not for TK’s abysmal social game, Gabe easily could have been the first one gone. Gabe’s bad read caused him to play that Idol when TK left, and he hasn’t exactly shown his instincts have gotten any sharper. But Gabe has overcome that by showing an ability to influence the votes at the 11th hour. He kept his alliance loyal when Rachel was able to leave Tribal Council, which resulted in Tiyana’s departure. Then in the chaos at the next vote, Gabe appears to be the one who kept everyone focused on removing Sierra. So, even if it wasn’t his original plan, Gabe has enough influence to stop people from changing the plan when he knows it benefits his game. I think Gabe has the respect level to win, but who knows how much these players like him? Kyle likes Gabe just fine, but Kyle likes everybody. Sue likes him too but hasn’t trusted him enough to tell him about the Idol she found. It appears Gabe wants her in the finals with him, but he might need her to be on the Jury to lobby for him. Would Sue vote for Gabe if Caroline was also in the finals? Would her feelings change if he cut her loose? Considering how upset Sue still is at Kyle for voting for her, I’m thinking she’d be pretty mad at Gabe. That could cost him her vote. Sierra was never interested in working with Gabe (or any Tuku for that matter), but I think Sol would be open to voting for him.

Genevieve – Like I mentioned in last week’s column, Genevieve’s game confuses me. She chose horrible alliance partners in Rome and Andy. She knew she’d have to cut Rome loose and currently feels the same about Andy. But when she lines up a new partner to replace them (Sierra, Sol) she inexplicably targets that person. Genevieve has put herself in a precarious position. She has helped take out two players who weren’t targeting her to apparently leave herself vulnerable to the most solid alliance in the game. Does Genevieve not know how loyal Gabe, Sue and Caroline are? Genevieve really stuck her head up strategically at this vote and took the lead to remove Sol. She convinced a majority to remove Sol because he was a “subtle threat,” but I think all she did was replace Sol in that “subtle” hot seat. Genevieve has shown the talent to convince others to vote how she wanted, but I’m not sure if she’s positioning herself to get a win. Sierra has no idea what role Genevieve played in her exit but has plenty of time to find out from each new juror. Sol is bound to find out who targeted him. Genevieve’s jury management doesn’t appear to be very strong, but if she’s able to get herself to the end, that might not matter. Surviving five votes and a fire contest could be enough to get a win. I just don’t think she’s gonna survive five votes.

Kyle – The good news for Kyle is everybody likes him. His personality hasn’t annoyed anybody. That alone could get him some votes. The bad news for Kyle is everybody likes him. His personality hasn’t annoyed anybody. That alone could make everyone realize they can’t win in the finals if he’s there. The other good news for Kyle is he can win a variety of Immunity Challenges (but we haven’t seen him tackle a puzzle yet). He can save himself if he knows he’s in trouble. The other bad news for Kyle is everybody knows he can win a variety of Immunity Challenges. That alone could make people want him gone sooner than later (even though he escaped it once). Kyle hasn’t shown an ability to influence the voting yet. Yes, he took the lead position in targeting Rome, but Rome set up the conditions that made it a no-brainer. Kyle hasn’t shown an ability to select or change the target on anyone else. That could make it hard for him to convince the Jury he did any outwitting. But that might not matter because of his likability. Sierra likes him just fine, and Sol really liked hanging out with Kyle. If he’s there at the end, I could easily see him getting an easy win over everyone except maybe Teeny. But he has to step up his strategic game just to stick around. It’s rare that a player gets a win on their physical game alone.

Rachel – I agree with Genevieve and Caroline when they say Rachel is the smartest player in the game. She’s got great instincts. I was very impressed with how she used her Shot in the Dark to gauge everyone’s reactions. She got burned at the Anika blindside and is still wary of trusting Andy, but also realizes she still has something to gain by at least letting him believe she’s open to working with him. She did something that made Sol want to save her with an Advantage once, then fight hard to push votes away from her when Sierra was blindsided. But Rachel didn’t feel so indebted to Sol to fight to save him when he needed help (News flash: favors aren’t returned on Survivor). Rachel is still in a good position to get both Sierra and Sol’s jury votes. The question is, can she get to the end? Rachel keeps losing allies and is running out of options. She knows she can’t stick with the Gabe/Sue/Caroline trio. She has dodged the target twice, but neither time was due to her own strategic planning. Rachel probably has the best story of perseverance if she makes it to the finals, especially if she uses her Idol in an impressive manner. She’d be able to say “I wasn’t supposed to make the Jury, but I survived. I was supposed to be the first juror, but I survived.” Rachel probably has the toughest road to the finals of everyone except maybe Kyle. Rachel should be practicing her fire making because unless she pulls out a Final 4 immunity win, there’s no way she’s staying out of that fire challenge.

Sam – In a way, the best thing to happen to Sam’s game is the blindside on Sierra. Everyone was worried about their power couple status. With Sierra gone, Sam appears to be a very appealing shield. People know Sam is an intimidating-looking player, so it’s easy to label him a challenge beast. But that status wasn’t enough to get him removed over Sierra or Sol, even when Sam didn’t have a vote, so I’m wondering if anybody really wants him out at all now? That could keep Sam safe, especially since Genevieve and Kyle seem intent on making themselves bigger targets. The question is, will Sam be able to pull a group together loyal enough to get past the strong Tuku threesome? Sam hasn’t done well in Immunity Challenges yet, and I don’t think he’s been sandbagging. So, like Kyle, Sam needs to do some outwitting, and he’s still holding an expired Gata Idol he could use in a creative way. Sam should also be sharpening his fire making skills. If he gets to the end, he’s probably got Sierra’s vote for sure. He’s got a decent shot at Sol’s too.

Sue – Sue needs a lot of breaks to get a win. Sue has 100% relied on her alliance with Caroline and Gabe for strategy and doesn’t appear to be aware that she’s being perceived as a follower. By openly telling people “I’ll vote with the majority,” she’s also telling them “I’m not making any decisions.” Sue also told Genevieve she wouldn’t vote for Sol unless Gabe was cool with the plan. The message? “Gabe is telling me what to do.” But this doesn’t mean she can’t win. After all, Fabio, Gabler, Natalie White, Amber, Jenna, Bob, and Michele all won the game with that image. But all of them sat next to players who made pretty big mistakes that alienated jurors down the stretch. In confessional, Sue told us “If I lose Gabe, my whole game is shot.” If she has shared this feeling with any of her jurors, she has created a reason NOT to vote for her. Sue has done well in challenges and could easily win her way into the finals. But if she’s sitting next to Gabe, she’s not winning unless he screws up. Sue doesn’t appear to be evaluating her other partner Caroline’s chances either. If I’m right about that, Sue won’t do anything to improve her jury image. Who does Sue think she can beat and why? Without that answer, Sue won’t know who she should put on the Jury (hint, at least one between Gabe and Caroline). She seems happy to let Gabe and Caroline carry her into the finals where she’ll lose because she was carried to the finals. In pregame, Sue bragged about how she was gonna be able to say “I’m the oldest one here, and I kicked your asses.” If she tries that with her present game status, she’ll get fewer votes than Andy if that’s possible.

Teeny – Teeny is probably the best-liked player in the game. Everyone brings information to Teeny, even if it comes very late in the process. Teeny is equally well-trusted. Nobody has so much as suggested voting Teeny out. Teeny has quietly done very well in challenges without being targeted for it. Teeny even won an Immunity challenge (tying with Genevieve) and escaped the intimidating image of wearing the necklace. Teeny’s problem is a failure to maintain a solid alliance. Teeny had no idea partners Kishan, Sierra, and Sol were leaving until it was too late to save them. But Teeny has been smart enough not to push too hard to save them when it appeared the decision was locked in. Can Teeny ride this stealth image to the end without influencing the voting once? If that happens, Teeny’s story of perseverance and persistence is almost as compelling as Rachel’s.

So there you have it. Some players have a strong strategic game but are low on likability. Those who are high on likability are weaker strategically. I think it will come down to what game aspects the jurors want to see, and I don’t have a strong read on that either. It’s looking like we’ll have a mid-level winner this season. Andy or Sue would be a weak winner. Everyone else seems to be a mid-level strategist/social player. Nobody is playing an elite game ... yet. I don’t think Gabe will achieve his goal of being a New Era Mt. Rushmore player. I currently have Dee, Jesse, Omar and Ricard on my New Era Mt. Rushmore. Who is on yours? Will Gabe prove me wrong? Let’s find out.

And away we go ....

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In last week’s “next time on Survivor” teaser we saw several shots of Sue talking about how badly she wants Kyle gone. The hint of course was that Sue was gonna go after Kyle. But after a little freeze-framing, I saw sue was talking to Tiyana in one shot. This was a clip from after the first Tuku Tribal Council when Kyle voted for her. The lesson: Never trust the promos. I think Kyle is safe tonight.

Right at the top of this week’s “Previously on” we see Genevieve planning the blindside on Sol. The hint of course is that Genevieve is about to be exposed. We even see Andy whispering to Teeny “Genevieve made this happen from scratch.” But we knew that anyway. My instinct says Genevieve is in trouble, but I don’t think she’ll get booted tonight. Stay tuned ....

Teeny to Genevieve in front of everyone: “You were so close to making me look stupid for no reason.” Teeny, I know you’re pissed off, but that was a bad move. You just cost yourself a chance to fool Genevieve into thinking you might still work with her. It’s harder for you to blindside her now. It doesn’t matter what you two talk about in private now.

Genevieve to Teeny: “I have wanted Sol out for so long.” And that was the worst possible thing she could say to Teeny. It’s equal to “I’ve been lying to you for 11 days. Wow it was easy to fool you.” I think that statement killed any chance Genevieve can get Teeny’s Jury vote if she reaches the end. When you hurt or humiliate someone, there’s almost no chance they’ll want to give you money. File this under “The Russell Hantz school of Jury management.” But Genevieve absolutely knew this would happen. She knew she’d be cutting herself off from Teeny. That makes the move even worse.

Teeny in confessional: “I truly don’t know how to pivot in this game.” I do. You need to unite the outsiders – Sam, Rachel, Kyle and Andy. The five of you can flip the game. But Andy is the dangerous one. You need to include him but do it late in the process, so he doesn’t have time to warn Genevieve or the Tukus. Pick a primary target and a backup in case the primary wins Immunity. You need to plant those seeds immediately.

Andy wants to target Kyle or Gabe. That’s perfect for Teeny because everyone could be focused on booting them. If Teeny can tell Kyle that he’s Andy and Genevieve’s target and other Tukus (Caroline, Sue) are with him, he might be lured away. Remove a Tuku at this vote with Kyle’s help and sell him on making Genevieve your next target.

The game Andy is describing in his confessionals is absolutely elite level. Too bad none of those playing the game with him think he’s anything more than a pocket vote. That’s NOT elite level. Andy is in for a harsh awakening.

Yeah, I knew this was gonna be a 3 vs 3 vs 3 challenge. For those of you who listen to RHAP podcasts, Jessica Lewis (who is on “Why ____ Lost”) will have nightmare flashbacks about this challenge. She didn’t like it when she had to slither in the sand with her hands tied.

Naturally Teeny ends up on the same team as Genevieve. The Survivor Gods are cruel.

Sam is very smart for counseling Rachel on how to do it.

If Rachel is competent at this, she, Kyle and Sam have an easy win.

Sam is using his arms to push the ball a lot more than his head. Probst isn’t catching it either. Good hack, Sam. Sue is killing her portion of it too. She did it much faster than Genevieve.

Sam, Kyle and Rachel win. Now comes the twist. Do they have to send someone on a Journey? Do they have to choose three players to lose their votes? How will the Producers screw this one up?

Wow, no annoying twist? This gives Rachel and Sam a great chance to start luring Kyle away. I wonder if either of them have heard Sue talking about wanting Kyle out?

Wait, part of their Reward is rice? There’s something wrong with that.

Kyle in confessional: “I have to make a move on Gabe before he makes a move on me.” Wow, I didn’t think it would be Kyle starting the strategy talk, and I’m even more surprised he suggested going after Gabe. I’m impressed Kyle, I wasn’t sure if you had it in you. He even suggested a secondary target in Genevieve.

Kyle to Sam and Rachel: “If we can orchestrate a move ....” That was also very smart. He easily could have slipped and said “If I can orchestrate a move.” Saying “we” instead of “I” lessens the chance that he’ll stick his head up as much as Genevieve did.

Rachel is smart to be wary of Sam since he just blew up her spot on the Sol vote, but I’m not sure confronting him about it and saying she might not trust him was smart. It’s better not to give him a reason to think you’re hesitant.

Andy to Sue: “I really want to work with you.” Sue “Let’s do it.” Does Andy really think it’s that easy to line her up? Sue is executing a very basic Survivor move: When someone pitches an idea, you say “yes,” even if you don’t mean it.

During this montage of “Sue wants Kyle out” clips, I kept hearing a car horn. Wussupwitdat?

Damn this Sue montage is lasting as long as the Auction. What’s with the overkill here?

Sue buys Andy’s “Kyle called you Tweedle-dee and Tweedle-dum” comment? Do either of them have a BS meter that works? Sue also believed Rome when he lied about Kyle.

Gabe telling Teeny he’s worried about Kyle should tell Teeny how much a partnership with Kyle will help keep Teeny around.

Sam pitches the plan Kyle pitched while on the Reward to Teeny and Andy. That’s good for Kyle because he won’t be seen as the mole who popped his head up. But I don’t think Kyle planned it that way. Sam is taking a risk by including Andy before the Immunity Challenge. But I didn’t see Andy around when Teeny agreed to the plan. I wonder if that was intentional or not? Did Andy get pulled away for a confessional? Hmm ....

I’m not sure what to make of this personal segment from Teeny. This could be a winner’s moment, or a goodbye Teeny moment.

Ahh, balancing balls on a disc. We’ve seen this several times before. I think Sue is gonna kill it on this one.

And of course, the Producers have to fuck it up with the rice negotiations. You just gave three people a bowl of rice! Everybody has had some Reward food. What’s the point?

Kyle suggests everyone give up their Shot in the Dark. Rachel is cool with that because she’s already played hers. Andy might be too. Did he ever get his back from Sierra?

Gabe pushing Sam to give up his Shot in the Dark is a dumb move. Gabe is sticking his mole head up. Gabe is also telling everyone he feels safe enough to give up his SITD. Silence is the best move here, and Andy is the one practicing it. Kyle easily could have been that mole, but Gabe took the spotlight.

But Sam goes for it. I think everyone just told Probst how worthless the Shot in the Dark has become.

If I’m Sam, I’m eating a shitload of rice at the first chance I get.

It’s interesting that all the men are standing sideways, and Sue, Caroline and Genevieve are facing forward. I’m not sure which style is better here.

In round 2, everyone is sideways except Genevieve, Caroline, Rachel and Kyle who has switched styles.

This episode is more interesting strategically if both Gabe and Kyle are vulnerable, but part of me is pulling for Kyle to win, and I’m not sure why. Oh wait, I do know why. It’s because he came up with a strong strategic plan, and I want to see if he can pull it off.

In round 3, Kyle is the only one facing forward. Caroline looked upset when Teeny fell out. Yeah, these people really like Teeny.

Sam is out and it comes down to Kyle and Sue again. When will these people realize Sue is an Immunity threat?

Kyle pulls it out! I guess it’s between Gabe and Genevieve now. But we still have to find out if Tuku will pick a different target.

Probst “There are an elite group of players who’ve won Immunity five times (in one season).” Those six are Colby (The Australian Outback), Ozzy (Cook Islands), Tom (Palau), Terry (Panama - Exile Island), Mike (Worlds Apart), and Brad (Game Changers). Every one of their wins was in a physical challenge except Colby, who won one Trivia Question challenge. One of Terry’s wins came against only two other players, and one of Mike’s wins came after he’d won an Advantage. Boston Rob, Joey Amazing, Spencer and Kim have 5 or more career wins, but they came over multiple seasons. Ozzy also won 6 straight Duels in South Pacific. I know, I’m unreasonably obsessed with Survivor.

Ed. note: If you, the reader, do too, you can look that up on this very site.

I think Gabe knows Kyle’s win is very bad news for him.

Sam thinks it’s his plan to target Gabe, and he’s more than willing to stick his head up to push the plan through. That’s great for Kyle, who actually pitched the plan. Sam is setting himself up to take the heat.

Teeny in confessional: “I know the timing isn’t right (to boot Genevieve). We need to get Gabe out first.” Smart observation.

Gabe: “Genevieve put a huuuuuge target on her back when she made that Sol move.” Like I said last week, moving on Sol, who wasn’t targeting her and wanted to work with her was a bad move for Genevieve. And this is why.

The only fly in the ointment tonight would be if Sue got a whiff of the move against Gabe and plays her Idol for him. Caroline knows she’s got an Idol. Would she push Sue to save Gabe? Would Sue actually do it? She said her game would be sunk if Gabe was gone. Maybe she would.

Caroline: “Gabe has played a better game than me ... if I vote out Gabe, I can really start my game.” Did Caroline read this column ... 5 months before I wrote it? It’s day 16, what have you been waiting for? I doubt Caroline will get the credit for this move. She might be facing a “too little, too late” situation if she makes it to the end.

Caroline pitches Andy on booting Gabe. Once again, Andy is in a position to screw up the entire plan. Telling her there’s already a move against him is a bad call. Andy never considered that Caroline could simply be fishing for information to bring back to Gabe. It would be better for him to let her think it’s entirely her plan and he’s willing to help.

Rachel: “Genevieve going before Gabe will be better for my game because everyone will still have their eyes locked on Gabe and no one will be looking at little ol’ Rachel.” I think you’re 100% wrong. If everyone knows you switched the vote from Gabe to Genevieve, they’ll be much more suspicious of you than they are now.

Is Rachel repairing Teeny’s burned bag? Have they become closer than we’ve been shown?

Genevieve to Rachel and Andy: “It’s gonna be me or Gabe tonight.” Teeny “Right. (agonizingly long two-second pause) Well, it’s gonna be Gabe.” What are you thinking Teeny??? Why would you confirm that so quickly??? You’re supposed to act surprised Genevieve thinks she’s leaving! Convince her that nobody has pitched you on voting for her!

And now Kyle tells Gabe: “It’s gonna be you or Genevieve?" Come on, people! You’re supposed to lie in these situations! That’s Survivor 101. Yeah, there’s no chance we’ll have an elite-level winner this season.

Gabe, what do you have to gain by telling Genevieve it’s you or her? Don’t you realize you just told her to vote for you??? No Mt. Rushmore for you!

As a strategy nut, I’m so disappointed. Kyle comes up with a great plan, then tells his target he’s in trouble? Gabe knows his best chance of staying is if Genevieve leaves, so he warns Genevieve? These players just achieved Gabon-level sloppiness.

This group deserved to get rained on tonight.

Probst tells the jurors everyone gave up their Shot in the Dark. Sol’s reaction matches my reaction to the last 5 minutes.

Sam offers up a plausible explanation for giving up his Shot in the Dark, and it looks like Sierra and Sol bought it. That just improved Sam’s chance at getting their Jury votes.

Sue really needs a washcloth. And why is Caroline’s the only face that isn’t wet?

We got to hear Rachel’s confessional without seeing her vote. But we already know she’s voting for Genevieve. What was the point?

Once again, when the two players on the hot seat have a name that starts with the same letter, we see one vote with just that letter. This time, it’s Kyle’s “G.” What would they do if Kyle thought her name started with a “J?”

Gabe knows Caroline betrayed him. I wonder if that’s gonna cost her his Jury vote?

Wow, I was wrong. Rachel voted for Gabe. I wonder what changed her mind?

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Recap

I’m not sure when it happened, but Gabe got exposed as a leader. That’s what makes the most sense to me. Props to Kyle for pulling this off, but Sam is gonna try to take credit for it. Kyle should let him do it…for now. Rachel can tell everyone it was really Kyle’s plan, but she won’t do that if she’s in the finals with Kyle. Kyle needs to put Rachel on the Jury so she can fill them in.

Gabe did a lot of things that set himself up for failure. By so blatantly going Idol hunting, he alarmed Tiyana, who then put his name out to everyone. Maybe that’s what got him labeled a “leader.” At a minimum, it put Gabe’s name on everyone’s radar much like Gabler did to Elie in Survivor 43. Gabe might have recovered if he got through this vote, but of course that didn’t happen. Gabe also screwed up big time by warning Genevieve she was in trouble. He needed her to focus on someone else (Rachel again?), then hope she could turn a vote or two towards Rachel.

Sue’s game is over too. She was just too dependent on Gabe for strategy, and now Caroline has betrayed her too. Sue needed to secure alternate partners at the merge but chose to sit back and be protected by Gabe. Her Idol probably won’t mean much now either. I doubt anyone will care if she gets to the end, so even if she plays it, she probably won’t save herself. Also, people might just shrug and say “Oh, that’s what the paint was about. Sue was really sloppy about that.”

This was the best possible scenario for Teeny. The Tukus are fractured now. Sue might go off on Caroline, so Teeny could scoop up Sue as a free agent. Sam’s position improved too, but I still think he’s gonna have to make a fire. Kyle needs to own this move before Final Tribal Council. His physical game has already made him a big enough target, so there’s not much to lose by telling people “I pitched this plan to Sam and Rachel on the Reward.” Then it will be up to Rachel to confirm or deny it. Whatever she does, the remaining players will know Kyle has been thinking strategically.

I’m not sure how this affects Caroline. On one hand, she weakened herself by losing Gabe and alienating Sue. That could also cost her a Jury vote or two. But on the other hand, she’s not a bigger target than Kyle or Genevieve. She’s probably got time to improve her Jury profile. She’s definitely out of Gabe’s shadow. In pregame, I tagged her as an overconfident player. If she thinks she can own this move, she could get shot down by Kyle, Sam or Rachel. That might kill her chances.

It's weird how both Genevieve and Caroline were so quick to turn against those they worked so hard to earn trust with. Gata is the only tribe that didn’t do this, and now they’ve evened the numbers with Tuku (Well, not really. You know, ‘cause of Andy). But Sam and Rachel have rallied back nicely.

What do you think? Who’s chances got better and who’s got worse? Who do you think Sierra, Sol or Gabe would vote for and why? Does Genevieve have any shot of reaching the finals? How can Rachel and Sue’s Idols affect the rest of the game? Let me know in the comments.