Last week, I analyzed each remaining player’s game and speculated on their chances of winning the million. I didn’t (and still don’t) give Andy any chance of winning, but I’m intrigued by how prevalent Andy has been in the broadcast, and how much interest he’s been getting in the online community. It made me wonder why there’s such a disparity between my perception of Andy’s game and how others are seeing him.

I think the most revealing perspective doesn’t come from analysts, fans or even Andy himself. The most accurate perspective comes from those playing the game with Andy. So, this week, I thought I’d compare a few examples of how Andy is reading the game vs. those playing the game with him.

Day 2: In confessional, Andy says “I first saw Rachel, and I knew she was someone I wanted to hitch my wagon to. I trust Jon, and I’m working with him, but that’s it. That makes me uncomfortable with the numbers. So, I put it upon myself to find a chance to get a moment with Rachel.” But Rachel’s read on Andy reveals Andy’s read was wrong. Rachel: “Andy is just the sweetest, but I don’t think he’s strategic. He’s just a little too eager to bond and get to know each other. It’s super-suspicious to ’get up early and meet on the beach and talk.’ Absolutely not. I’m not doing that, Andy.” Andy doesn’t pick up on the fact that Rachel is only letting him think she wants to work with him when she has no intention of aligning with him.

Day 3: Andy has had his meltdown, but catches a break when Jon decides he wants to save Andy. Jon and Andy pitch Sam on removing Anika. Andy’s perspective: “I’m patching things up with Jon, and he gives me a lifeline to get the person I actually want out, which is Anika.” But after Jon makes his pitch, we get Sam’s perspective: “Jon and Andy expect me to throw a vote on Anika tonight. I love you Jon, but I’m not doing that. I’m starting to think Jon is playing hard. He’s a strategist, he’s very smart, which is dangerous for me.” Jon’s plan backfires, and Andy stays because of it.

Sam pulls the strings to remove Jon, but Andy’s perspective is different. Andy: “I’m feeling better in a lot of ways. They’re including me, which is the first step in improving your position – having people include you in the social vibe of the tribe.” Andy thinks Jon’s departure means he’s a valued member of an alliance. But what do his tribemates say? Rachel: Andy wants something from us. He wants connection, and to be included. We want something from him. We want him to be in a good mindset and perform in challenges, but we also want him to be the easy boot.” Anika: “It’s very obvious that Andy needs words of affirmation. I’ve met a variety of men on dating apps. Specifically for Andy, you can tell it’s ‘Giving, toxic, clingy boyfriend.’” They’re patronizing Andy, and he’s not seeing through it. Sam found the Idol and told everyone about it ... except Andy. But Andy thinks he’s being included?

Day 15: Andy has missed out on getting food at the Auction because he couldn’t find any money. Genevieve almost bumps into Andy reaching behind him to grab a tube while Andy is complaining about not being able to find any. Sam and Rachel have had this exchange: Rachel: “Oh duh, I forget about Andy every time.” Sam chuckles and says, “Sometimes I do as well.” And in confessional Sierra says “Andy has been somebody we’ve been keeping around. He’s still in Sam and I’s pocket. He’s just an easy number we can use. He’s not a threat or someone I’m worried about. So, I’m like ‘Might as well drag him along a little longer until we can no longer tolerate him.'” But in confessional, Andy says “I can be the Andy I believe myself to be. I can be my full version of myself and turn into the pivotal player post-merge. I can make my own lunch table. Sam, Sierra and Rachel are gonna be shocked by the new Andy. They’re not gonna see me coming. That’s stupid. I’ve been doing a lot behind their backs.” Andy technically wasn’t wrong, he was doing things behind their backs. But he doesn’t seem to realize what he was doing wasn’t changing anybody’s perception of him. They were still writing him off as a non-factor. It’s very hard to win from that position.

Post-merge we start to get perspective from non-Gata players. Andy offers his vote to Caroline and Gabe. In confessional, Gabe says, “It’s perfect. A chef’s kiss. However many Gata he wants to turn on, that works for me. I see Sierra as the head of the snake, and it’s fitting because Gata’s logo is a snake, so there you go. If there are 8 people strong being the 4 Tuku, 3 Lavo and Andy, Sierra will be out of the game.” Gabe doesn’t sound like Andy convinced him to vote for Sierra. Gabe sounds like Andy just gave him the gift that makes the decision he has already made easier to execute. Also, Gabe’s original target was Rachel, which means Gabe thought Rachel and Sierra, and not Andy, were the strongest Gata players.

When Andy pitches Teeny on removing Sierra, Teeny expresses a preference to boot Sam. Teeny isn’t swayed by Andy at all. Sierra leaves after a tie vote and Andy exits Tribal Council smiling ear to ear. His confessional after returning to camp reveals he believes he pulled the strings on the Sierra vote. Andy: “After this vote, I’m a certified flipper. I flipped on Gata and this is the first step of me taking my fate into my own hands ... So, for me to be the one to get one over on my original tribemates is complete Survivor satisfaction. I have flipped the script. This is my story, and I’m continuing to still get to write it.” But what do the other players say? Sam: “Tribal Council was horrible. Rachel and I get blindsided, Sierra gets sent home, and we happened to lose Andy in the process ... Tonight, both Andy and Lavo flipped on Gata.” Sam doesn’t credit Andy with masterminding anything, he merely says Andy flipped, or perhaps was pulled away by others, which is a less-respected move.

Even last week, Andy seems to think he set up Gabe’s removal. First, he spoke with Genevieve and suggested booting Gabe or Andy. But of course, Genevieve had just stuck her head up by manipulating the Sol vote and wanted to make sure SHE wasn’t the target. She’d agree to anything. Then in the next scene, Andy told Sam “Genevieve was just here. She said she’s down for splitting up Kyle and Gabe.” He told Sam this was Genevieve’s idea. In confessional, Andy said “I’m the smiling assassin. I have ice in my veins, but people don’t see that, they see the charming Andy. That’s my greatest strength…. All I have to do is crawl over here and decide who my next victim is, bite their head off, then crawl over here and decide who my next victim is. I’m a lethal player in this game.” The other players have a lot of nicknames for Andy, but “lethal” isn’t one of them.

These are part of the reasons I still think Andy’s game is already over. One of the keys to winning Survivor is figuring out what your jurors want to see in a winner and doing whatever it takes to make them think YOU best represent those qualities. Andy seems preoccupied with his own perspective and is perhaps assuming the other players are seeing things the same way. We’ve got three jurors now, and based on the quotes I provided above, none of them see Andy as a significant or influential player so far. While Sol hasn’t given any anti-Andy quotes, he knows first-hand Andy didn’t manipulate the Sierra vote because Sol did that himself. And Gabe won’t be telling them Andy is the puppetmaster either. If Andy tries to tell them how he planned anyone’s exit, he’ll get immediate blowback. That’s what happened to Cassidy when she tried to take credit for removing Ryan in 43. Jesse and Cody immediately corrected her and explained how it was really THEIR plan. Cassidy never recovered.

Andy seems very proud of the turnaround he has made. But he has no idea the other players haven’t seen this turnaround at all. Instead, they’re surprised he hasn’t had another meltdown. Sue said she wouldn’t make a move without Gabe. Sam wouldn’t make a move without Sierra, Teeny was devoted to Kishan and then Sol. Genevieve was loyal to Rome. So far, nobody has said they won’t make a move without Andy.

To me, Andy is a lock to make it to the final 4. But if he gets to the end, he’s gonna be telling a story his jurors just won’t believe. Will Andy try to take credit for removing Gabe this week? Let’s find out.

And away we go ...

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And right on cue, the “Previously on ...” segment starts with Andy. But we’re not seeing Andy in any of the vote planning except for Caroline pitching HER plan to him. Kyle is feeling bad about removing Gabe, but that was the best move he could make. Even he could see he was on the bottom of the Tuku 4. But he probably should have lined up new partners earlier.

Sue in confessional: “I want to take out everyone.” Too bad you only lined up two trusted partners. But Rachel was smart for telling Sue she didn’t want to remove her or Caroline.

We’ve seen two shots of Kyle making a fire so far. Hmm ....

Caroline to Sue: “I was making decisions that were good for Gabe. I’ll go home earlier rather than making it to the end feeling like he carried me. My goal was to play a game I could be proud of.” Guess what, Caroline? You just told Sue he was making decisions for her. You just enhanced a reason for her not to trust you. Telling Sue you want to go to the finals with her is equal to telling Sue you think you can beat her. But it looks like Sue is buying it.

If this five eliminates everyone else, I think Teeny and Rachel have the best chance of winning. Teeny is the most-liked, and Rachel is seen as the smartest. I can’t help but notice Teeny is doing most of the talking here.

Sam, Genevieve and Kyle seem to know what’s up, but it’s a little late now. All they have to do is count.

Genevieve: “I’d rather be a villain that people didn’t connect with than the best friend to kill their dream.” That’s an odd perspective and I don’t think its very realistic because more often than not, the Villain won’t get the win.

Kyle: “You need to adapt and be somebody you need to be to go the distance.” That makes a lot more sense to me.

Andy: “I’m the one with best relationships with everyone. I have the power. I can arrange the pieces how I want them to go. I’m the crusher.” Sorry, Andy, nobody else is seeing things that way.

Here comes a boat. Don’t get on the boat!

Genevieve, Sam, and Rachel all say they want to get on the boat, then in confessional, Rachel admits it’s a move she doesn’t want to make. She’s playing defense instead and preventing her target from going.

Purple rock goes on the Journey. I say leave it up to the rock. That way, you don’t look like you’re so eager to go if you’re chosen. But whoever goes gets the biggest target now.

And Rachel screws herself over. In pregame, she said “I’m definitely not volunteering for a Journey.” So much for that plan. Rachel should know pulling a purple rock isn’t a good thing in Survivor.

I like to say “Get on the boat, lose your vote.” Is that what’s gonna happen to Rachel? She’ll be under more scrutiny either way, but she’s got her Idol as a backup. I’ve seen this color arranging game a lot when I play other games on my phone. It looks fairly easy.

Rachel can block someone’s vote up until the final 6, but that person won’t know she did it? I think someone will figure it out. This is the same option Rachel had earlier in the game. She passed on it in favor of using the Safety Without Power.

Who has to dive down to retrieve the puzzle when Rachel leaves? I bet they keep that part out of the Dream Team recruiting video.

Rachel lies and says she lost her vote, but then she destroys her lie by immediately telling Sue and Caroline the truth. Why does she think they won’t spill her secret? But Sue is buying it???? Sue isn’t very good at this game.

And now she tells Andy and Teeny. I can hear Q already: “Big mistake!” With so many knowing she’s got this power, it’s huge incentive to either vote her out or pile up votes to nullify her power. She should have lied about which Advantage she got. What harm would it do to say she got a Knowledge Without Power or something else?

Genevieve to Rachel: “Would you consider booting someone being shepherded to the final, like Sue or Andy?” Like I said, Andy’s view of Andy’s game is MUCH different from everyone else’s view of his game.

Andy point blank tells Rachel he wants Genevieve out. Will she listen to him?

We’ve seen this challenge many times before - in Blood vs. Water, San Juan del Sur, Kaoh Rong, and Game Changers.

Kyle opens up by talking about his family again. Just enhance the reason to remove you, dude.

Sue is rooting for Teeny? These players love Teeny.

I remember in a similar spelling challenge, one player lost Immunity because they had one letter upside down. I’m seeing Genevieve and Teeny with an upside down “I.” will they get burned?

I don’t know why anyone wouldn’t put all their blocks at the edge of that barrel, so they don’t have to reach back as far to get them.

Teeny stops to watch Rachel, then is the first to run over and hug her when she wins. These people like Rachel too. Or are they just glad Kyle lost?

Rachel says she doesn’t care who leaves between Kyle, Genevieve and Sam. She should boot whoever is A) Most likely to vote for her in the end, or B) whoever is least likely to work with her at the next couple of votes. That might be a toss-up between Kyle, Sam and Genevieve.

Teeny in confessional: “Kyle is too good a competitor, he’s got too good of a story, and people just like Kyle.” Kyle should have sandbagged in challenges from day 1. He did the opposite.

Caroline: “Seeing how sad he is, he doesn’t have it (an Idol) right now." That’s exactly how I’d act if I DID have an Idol. That’s how I’d control the vote. Draw votes to me, save myself, then my vote decides who leaves.

Teeny shoots down Sam’s suggestion of going after someone not named Kyle. Teeny is taking charge of this vote.

Yo Kyle, it’s a little too late to start developing a social game.

In confessional, Kyle says, “A family man is a dangerous man to have in the end game.” That’s why you shouldn’t have talked about your family so much.

In confessional, Andy says he wants Genevieve gone. But he doesn’t know the decision has already been made. And right on cue, Caroline, Rachel and Teeny are shooting him down. Teeny pushes for Kyle. Who’s gonna win out? (Hint, it’s not Andy).

Andy: “The hard part is getting everyone on board with my plan.” Nobody cares about your plan, Andy.

Kyle is right about him not playing the strongest social game, but I don’t think it will matter. He’s just too likable.

Kyle just called BS on Andy’s answer to Probst. That’s not good for Andy.

The only thing I know for sure is that Sue is voting for Kyle. Then again, last week, I was sure Rachel was gonna vote for Genevieve, and she voted for Gabe.

Will Genevieve, Sam and Kyle all vote together? If the other votes are split, that might make the difference. It might make the difference if only two of them vote together.

Goodbye, Kyle.

Kyle thanks everyone as he goes to get his torch. Yeah, this dude was unbeatable in the finals. He had to go. We knew that from day 1. And nobody listened to Andy, again. You’re not the crusher, and you didn’t arrange any pieces at this vote.

Well, since Kyle is gone, what else is there for Sue to do in this game aside from hanging around to be a zero vote goat? Nobody needs an Idol less than Sue does. Maybe Caroline tries to save herself by exposing Sue’s Idol?

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Recap

I’ll pat myself on the back and say I got this one right. In pregame I said “Kyle should be wary of sharing his backstory. How could you not want to give him money if he’s there at the end?” While his Immunity wins were probably the primary factor in this vote, Kyle constantly talking about his family only enhanced his threat level, and he talked about his family a LOT. Kyle boxed himself into a “win Immunity or go home” position, and didn’t spend any time figuring out how to keep himself safe when he didn’t have Immunity.

So, Kyle joins the jury. What stories is he gonna tell them? I don’t think he’ll be able to add much insight aside from telling Gabe the role he played in Gabe leaving. That might mean Kyle will take full credit for that. Kyle certainly isn’t gonna enhance Sue or Andy’s jury image. But since he voted for Teeny, he might pimp Teeny’s cause a little.

The five who met at the Well all voted for Kyle except for Andy. Sorry, Andy.

From my perspective, Rachel and Teeny both took huge leaps forward. They’re both influencing decisions without standing out as a leader. They’re both liked and respected enough to get a win, and both are a little ahead of everyone else. Rachel pulled out an Immunity win when she needed it the most, but Teeny has done well in these challenges too. If they’re both around at final 4 whichever one of them pulls out a win might also win the million.

Entering final 7, Rachel can block someone from voting. On the surface, it figures she’ll block Genevieve, but it might be smarter to block anyone who sounds like they’re not gonna vote the way she wants. That means only 6 votes will be in play. Depending on who gets blocked that could change someone else’s vote. Or, if the final 7 vote seems very solid, she can use it at final 6. That way, she’d only need 3 votes to control the vote. Rachel has some serious power.

What do you think? How should Rachel use her Block a Vote? Did Teeny’s control at this vote mean Teeny’s the frontrunner? What options do Sam or Genevieve have? How does Caroline improve her position? Let me know what you think in the comments.

And happy Thanksgiving!