Welcome back to Screaming at the Screen and my first column for Survivor 47 (aka “forty several”). The new season will be starting soon, and I’m just as excited about it as I ever was. This season’s players will be the first ones playing with the confirmed knowledge that some players will be invited back for Season 50. I have little doubt this cast will be playing to the cameras, giving particularly spicy confessionals, and playing more aggressively than in previous New Era seasons. Several will be playing to be asked to play again.

But part of that formula is playing to win. Winning the game doesn’t guarantee a repeat appearance, even if you bring something new to the table (just ask Vecepia, who wasn’t even asked to play in Winners At War). Sometimes being “the one who was supposed to win” (Aubry, Spencer, Amanda, Ozzy, Colby) can get you a 2nd shot. I think that might help players like Maria (Survivor 46), Jesse or Karla (Survivor 43), Omar (Survivor 42), Ricard (Survivor 41), Domenick (Ghost Island) and a few others. But I’d say in most cases, winning the game gives you a leg up on most other candidates.

So this column is dedicated to identifying a winning formula for the New Era.

That formula is surprisingly simple. I have watched, rewatched and transcribed every New Era season, and after exhaustive research, here’s my conclusion: Be a short woman.

Yep. That’s it. Erika, Maryanne, Dee, and Kenzie were all diminutive compared to their tribemates.

Oh wait. I forgot about Yam Yam. Hmm. This will be tougher than I thought. Then again, Yam Yam is a salon owner, just like Kenzie. So, if you can’t be a short woman, be a short hairdresser. That’s it. All you cosmetologists, get ready to dig deep!

Dammit, I forgot about Gabler too. He’s screwing up my column just like he screwed things up for a lot of his tribemates. He’s got that Urkel/Gilligan thing working for him. Dammit, Gabler! If Cassidy had won, this column would be dead on balls accurate. (It’s an industry term.)

Oh well, I guess I’ll have to actually do some digging in this deep dive overview. Let’s see what these six winners had in common. What did they do right? What did they do wrong, and how did they recover from their mistakes? Why didn’t the taller players win ... uhh, except for Gabler. Dammit, Gabler!

Let’s start with the basics.

1. Forming/ joining an alliance

Without a doubt, Dee was the best here. She took her time to evaluate her original tribemates, and wisely chose the three most stable and reliable people to align with – Julie, Austin and Drew. Her tribe won early challenges too, so she had time to solidify those bonds. She got particularly close to Julie and Austin, which paid off for her all game long. Neither one of them ever wanted her out because they believed they were Dee’s #1. They both wanted her in the finals with them. Drew never targeted her either. All of them kept bringing reliable information to her too. On top of that, J. Maya believed her alliance with Dee and Julie was rock solid.

Yam Yam was probably second best at it. The trust he earned from Carolyn and Carson also lasted all game long, even though he bickered with Carolyn constantly. Kenzie’s strength was her social game. She spoke with and bonded with everyone on her original tribe. But she was a little too visible. Q targeted her pre merge. Had it not been for a medevac, Kenzie might have been voted out by the two people she trusted most.

Erika also got herself into early trouble. Danny and Deshawn actually tried to throw a challenge so they could remove her. If they’d lost that challenge, we might have a different winner from Survivor 41. Unwitting Erika got saved by Naseer who wasn’t in on the plan to throw the challenge and led them to a win.

Maryanne was likable, but initially annoyed most of her tribe. However, she also had challenge powerhouse Jonathan with her. He literally carried them to a couple of wins. But Maryanne also deserves credit for bonding with Omar, who saved her at the merge when she didn’t even know she was in danger.

Gabler annoyed the crap out of his tribemates, and was so physically worn down, he considered quitting. He didn’t have an alliance. Most sought to carry him along as a goat. Dammit, Gabler!

What did they all have in common? They all kept their heads down reasonably well. None of them were aggressive out of the gate, and it paid off. Even in the faster-paced New Era, it’s best not to play too hard, too fast. Many aggressive players (Soda, Tevin, Drew, Maddy, Geo, Elie, James, Hai, Brad, Shantel) got clipped as soon as they showed their strategic chops by making a “big move.” There’s a Whac-A-Mole quality to New Era Survivor. Be a Hide-A-Mole.

2. Don’t stand out as a threat

There are of course many ways to be a threat – socially, strategically and physically - and some of those ways affect men differently than women. If you’re seen socializing with many players, especially right after a swap, you can be labeled as a social threat. Think of what happened to Kaleb in Survivor 45. He made a point of talking to everyone he could at the tribe swap, and again when the tribes all met on one beach. He was too obvious. Even a bad player like Bruce was able to get him targeted first at the merge.

Dee, on the other hand, had a little luck and landed with trusted alliance partners at the swap, and again in two split squad challenges. She opened lines of communication with new acquaintances but wasn’t so aggressive about it to stand out. Kenzie’s tribe lost so many early challenges she had no choice but to work on new relationships. She got labeled a “leader” when Bhanu blabbed to Liz and Ben while on a Journey. Kenzie was lucky nobody took Bhanu seriously. She got even luckier when nobody took Liz or Ben seriously either. Yam Yam’s tribe also suffered early losses, but the loyalty between himself, Carson and Carolyn paid off when the three of them were able to play the middle while simultaneously convincing the other alliances that they were fractured. Both Maryanne and Erika found themselves as outsiders at the merge. Neither were particularly valued by most of their original tribemates and were at best on the bottom. Gabler was pretty much a free agent at the merge. Nobody took him very seriously, but they all listened to him when he blurted out “Elie searched my bag!” at the merge feast. They voted her out immediately.

Elie’s reaction? “Dammit, Gabler!”

None of the New Era winners stood out as a strategic threat to any of the other players except Dee, which was a little surprising. At the split-squad Tribal Council, Jake tried to convince Kaleb and Katurah that Dee had all the power in her alliance. But Dee had the good luck of having Austin and Julie along with her. And also, thanks to her unusually large toes, she won Immunity in the Get A Grip challenge. Jake couldn’t directly target her, so he tried (and failed) to target Julie. Also, Dee played a strong part in flipping Katurah’s vote against Kaleb. Dee earned some trust from Katurah before Katurah learned she was on the bottom of her Belo alliance. Katurah saw somebody to turn to in Dee. With Jake’s partner Kaleb gone and Katurah flipped against him, Jake couldn’t come after Dee again. Dee’s Immunity win brings us to the next way to stand out as a threat: The Physical game.

The Physical game

We’ve seen dozens of male players get labeled a “challenge beast” by dominating the tribal challenges, usually by taking the “spotlight” roles. A Spotlight Role would be anytime every eye on your tribe/team is on you. If you’re doing the puzzle, holding the pole trying to unwind the rope to release sandbags, tossing the rings at the end – anything where a majority of your tribe/team has nothing to do but watch you work. What’s interesting about the New Era here is that the fortunes for women have changed since Survivor 41. Prior to 41, women who did well in challenges rarely got targeted for being a challenge beast – at least not in their rookie seasons. We saw Alicia, Helen, Jenna, Ami, Danni, Amanda, Laura M., Jane, Sophie, Kim, Denise, Tasha, Natalie Anderson, and Chrissy all perform well early on, yet avoid the “Challenge beast” label and see their names written down because of it. Only Michaela (in Millennials vs. Gen X) and Desi’s (HvHvH) early successes contributed to their removals.

But in the New Era, the trend is changing.

In 41, Shantel and Liana did well in some pre-merge spotlight roles, and both got targeted because of it. Evvie blazed through two puzzles, then immediately got booted. In 44, Frannie surprised herself by doing so well in challenges, and couldn’t hold herself back as she improved. She got taken out when others feared losing Immunity to her.

Drea in Survivor 42, Lauren in Survivor 44, and especially Maria in Survivor 46 all had others worried about losing Immunity to them. Maria did so well so early, she made herself the #1 target. She had no chance of reaching the end if she didn’t have Immunity. Liz even gave up her shot at Immunity so she could help Kenzie beat Maria. I’m still upset about that.

Erika took two spotlight roles, both on puzzles. But on the second one, she was partnered with Evvie, who ripped through it. Erika did little more than hand pieces to her. Maryanne also worked on two puzzles. One of them was a split-squad challenge. She actually annoyed some of her tribemates by jawing back and forth with an impatient Jonathan instead of focusing on the puzzle.

Gabler didn’t take any spotlight roles in Tribal Challenges. He left that to Sami and Owen. Yam Yam didn’t either, but since his tribe lost so much early on, his performances weren’t gonna make him stand out even if he’d done well. Yam Yam actually bought himself some security by being self-effacing. He regularly joked about how bad he was doing in challenges. His humor disarmed his competition all season long.

Dee didn’t take any spotlight roles. She was happy to let Austin (5), Drew (3) and Julie (3) fill those roles. Julie later got targeted because she’d done well. But Dee turned it on down the stretch, eventually winning three Individual Immunity challenges including the most important at Final 4, which secured her win. I will make one note about Julie. In one challenge, three others had to run an obstacle course to collect three bags and put them on a table. Julie’s job was to find a key that was in one of the bags, then unlock a pole she’d use to unwind some rope. When Dee returned with the last three bags, Julie already had the correct key sitting at her feet. Whether she groped the bags early, or dropped the correct bag and heard the key clank on the ground, the other two teams lost a lot of time while searching for their keys. Julie’s role was the difference in that challenge. Then again, her role came in the middle of that challenge and not the end. Sometimes that can make a difference too.

Kenzie also stayed out of the spotlight roles, but it’s worth noting that Maria, Jess and Tiffany (two each) all took spotlight roles and got into trouble because of their success or failure in them. Kenzie didn’t win at Final 4, but her ability to make fire ended up impressing her jurors enough to change one Jury vote. She won by two votes.

The lesson here is clear: Stay out of a spotlight role as much as you can.

It is also worth noting that a few obvious male challenge beasts in the New Era stuck around despite standing out. Xander finished 3rd, Jonathan 4th, Austin 2nd, and Q 6th. They all made deeper runs and finished higher than your usual 10th-place beast. Even Hunter last season, who stood out from Day 1, made it to 9th place. Maybe things are changing.

3. The Strategic Game

So, this takes us to the more difficult area to evaluate and measure – strategy. I have a particular affection for players who can map out a plan, explain how and why they think it will work, and then execute that plan the way they explained it.

One example of this is Sandra in Heroes vs Villains. Before the merge, Sandra and Courtney fell into the minority when Boston Rob got booted. At the next Reward Challenge, Coach insisted Sandra and Courtney sit out because he wanted the food. Then when they lost, Coach blamed Sandra and Courtney. Sandra told Courtney “Tyson’s gone, Boston Rob’s gone, and all of a sudden, we’re on the outs, and it’s 5-2. Do you want to get even with Coach? Think about it. Russell’s the kind of person who if he finds out someone is gunning for him, he’ll take them out. If one of us is going next, we could put a bug in his ear that Coach is gunning for him. I’m gonna work my magic, and we’re both gonna be here on day 22 & 23.”

So, Sandra went to Russell and had this chat:

Russell: “She was just over there talking to Coach.”

Sandra: “Who Courtney?”

Russell: “It don’t matter what she says. I will tell them ‘This is how we’re votin’, and that’s how it’s gonna be. It’s that simple.”

Sandra: “But at the same time, I heard Coach saying he made a mistake and he wished he could go back.”

Russell: “What mistake?"

Sandra: “In letting Rob go home – that he’s sorry he ever made that choice. That’s what he told her (Jerri) and that he wanted to get rid of you. So, I don’t know about your homeboy.”

Russell: “He ain’t my homeboy, I don’t trust him. Obviously, you can’t trust him because of that right there. He’s goin’ behind my back, sayin’ stuff like that. He’s diggin’ his own grave just like Rob did.”

And just like that, Russell no longer wanted Courtney gone, he was after Coach. Sandra convinced Parvati and Danielle to vote for Coach, and it was a done deal, even though Russell eventually changed his mind. Coach was booted, and both Sandra and Courtney were still in the game on days 22 and 23. Sandra called her shot.

We saw a few events similar to this by some New Era winners.

After a second split-squad challenge in Survivor 45, Dee won Immunity then had this to say in a confessional “Austin doesn’t want to vote Kaleb. He wants to keep the big threat. But I’m the one in the position of power, so we’re voting Kaleb no matter what. And Jake will want to work with us because he’s easy to persuade. He knows if he were to go against us, we’re gonna go against him. I don’t think much is gonna go wrong tonight because last night at Tribal, every single person wrote his (Kaleb’s) name down. If we take him out tonight, no one’s gonna be against us because everyone wanted him out to begin with. So, Kaleb is a goner (she laughs). Boy, goodbye!” Kaleb was voted out 4-2, and Dee’s threat level didn’t rise at all.

Erika had a similar moment after the Survivor 41 merge. At final 8, Ricard won Immunity and his partner Shantel wanted Erika gone. She asked everyone to vote for Erika. But Ricard made a move to blindside Shantel. Deshawn relayed that plan to Erika. But Erika knew Shantel had an Idol, and if she played it, Erika might be booted. In confessional, Erika said “So the goal is to get out Shan. But Shan has an Idol, and if she uses it, that group can decide who gets knocked out, and it could be me. Danny and I were original Luvu. Maybe I can get Danny to vote with us too. I’m thinking 3 people vote for Shan, 3 vote for Liana. If Shan doesn’t play her Idol, we revote between Liana and Shan, and Shan goes home. If Shan plays her Idol, Liana goes home.” That’s exactly what happened. Erika convinced Danny to vote for Shantel in a vote split with Liana. Shantel got blindsided while holding her Idol, and Erika guaranteed her safety in any scenario.

The key to Sandra, Dee and Erika’s moves was the fact that they had an accurate read on their position in the game AND how the other players felt about each other. Sandra knew Russell would get angry at and/or target anyone he thought wouldn’t obey him. So, despite being clearly aligned against him, she earned enough trust from him to fool him into thinking Coach was coming after him. She knew Russell would order Parvati and Danielle against Coach too, so when he did that, she followed up and closed them both. With 4 votes firmly against Coach, it didn’t matter to Sandra if Russell changed his mind. She’d already saved Courtney. Dee also had an accurate read on Katurah and earned enough trust from her to convince her to vote against Kaleb. Erika recognized that Shantel was coming after her. She also knew Danny was becoming upset with Shantel and could be flipped.

So, here’s how all of this translates into New Era Survivor.

With the faster-paced 26-day game, there just isn’t as much time to cultivate relationships. Instead of having a day or two to earn trust, these players often have as little as a few hours. Dee and Katurah had only shared a camp for about a day before they were faced with a vote. Then they had to vote in a 6-person group the next day. You just can’t afford to sit back like Bruce in that same season and wait for people to come talk to you. On the other hand, you can’t bounce around like a butterfly schmoozing everyone in 2-minute conversations like Kaleb did. Dee, Kenzie, and Erika seemed to straddle that line the most effectively. Yam Yam needed a little luck when in the same situation because the vote came down to him or Josh at one vote, then him or Matt B. at the next one. While his humor helped reduce his threat level, other factors ultimately saved him both times. Joshua was just too shifty, and Matt B. was a sitting duck who’d be in a strong majority if he were allowed to stay. Maryanne never knew she was in trouble. She also didn’t know Omar was switching votes from her to Lydia.

And Gabler? Everyone had written him off at the merge. Nobody considered him to be a threat of any kind, and I’m still not convinced that was intentional on his part.

Dammit, Gabler!

Another wrinkle in New Era Survivor is the final 4 fire challenge.

Its probably best to have Immunity at this spot because you can control who has the chance to make that last big impression on the Jury. It also depends on how accurate your read is on the Jury. If you know you’re the favorite, there’s no need for you to make fire. But if you know you’re the underdog, you can put yourself in that position. But of course, nobody can plan around winning that final 4 challenge. And even if you know you’re good at making fire, someone else could be better.

I still think Tommy handled this best in 39. He was good at making fire but made a point of making sure nobody knew it. He let others make the fires in camp. He also built strong relationships with everyone down the stretch, including the unpredictable wild card Noura, who won Immunity at final 4. Noura considered Lauren to be a bigger threat than Tommy, and she’d been targeting Dean for a few votes too. Noura believed Tommy was on her side, so she threw Dean in against Lauren. Tommy won the million.

Dee was in a similar position. She was also good at making fire but didn’t advertise that skill. But she won final 4 Immunity. Her toughest competition was her closest partner, Austin. But she knew Austin’s best chance of winning the game was if he won at fire. So she threw Jake in against Katurah. Yam Yam wanted to make fire because he knew he was very good at it. The problem for him was everyone else knew it too. Heidi won Immunity and knew her position was weak. She even told everyone at the Immunity Challenge she was strongly considering throwing herself in. She didn’t want to face someone who could beat her, so she went up against Carson and won. Yam Yam had to kill it at Final Tribal Council, and that’s exactly what he did.

Kenzie’s situation was a little different. She’d built strong relationships but wasn’t confident in her fire making abilities. She was very close with Ben who surprisingly won final 4 Immunity but couldn’t convince him to take her to the finals over Charlie, to whom he felt closer. Kenzie struggled in the fire challenge against Liz, but the grit she showed while competing won her a Jury vote from Charlie’s closest ally Maria. Kenzie won by 2 votes. Erika had a 50/50 chance of being thrown into the challenge when Xander won Immunity. Xander had a horrible read on everyone’s position (as well as his own) and threw the two least likely to win the game into the challenge, handing Erika a seat in the finals. As they say, sometimes its better to be lucky than good. Erika was good, but she was lucky at this vote.

Maryanne also had a lot of luck at this point. Like Noura and Ben, Romeo pulled out a surprise Immunity win at final 4. He knew Jonathan and Mike were the frontrunners, so he threw them into the fire challenge, handing Maryanne a seat in the finals. Maryanne’s strong relationship with Romeo may have been a factor here, but probably not the most compelling one.

And Gabler? This is the one part of his game I think was 100% intentional and went according to his plan. He knew he wasn’t seen as a contender. He was also confident in his fire making abilities. He salivated at the opportunity to go against the clear frontrunner Jesse, who had easily played the best game. It was a no-brainer for Immunity winner Cassidy to take the best chance of removing Jesse, and she didn’t believe Owen could do it. So Gabler got what he wanted. He defeated Jesse, then absolutely killed it at Final Tribal Council, shocking everyone, especially Cassidy.

4. Other Producer twists

There isn’t much you can do to strategize around random rock draws that determine a split-squad challenge. At best, you rely on a basic Survivor skill of earning trust quickly, and not standing out as a threat long before you reach for a rock. Make sure people know there’s a bigger threat than you, even if that person is your partner. Better them than you. You should even be willing to lie about someone’s threat level. But there are a few things you can plan for.

Matt B. in Survivor 44 and Drew in Survivor 45 both made the mistake of leaving their bags back at camp when then left for a challenge. Matt had what he thought was an Idol in his bag (it was actually a phony), and Drew had a Safety Without Power Advantage that allowed him to save himself by leaving Tribal Council (Jeremy had the same Advantage in Winners At War). Both Matt and Drew fell on the bad side of the rock draw for teams and were sitting ducks. Matt got voted out when others saw him as more dangerous than Yam Yam. Original Reba member Drew offered up his vote to his Belo teammates who outnumbered him. He was lucky they decided to put wild card Sifu off the Jury instead. The lesson here is clear: ALWAYS take your Idol/Advantage to the challenges. You’ll never know when you’ll need them. Don’t hide your trinkets so far away from camp that you can’t retrieve it on short notice.

The Survivor Auction was brought back in 45 with a twist. Whoever had the most money left at the end would lose their vote at Tribal Council. The players didn’t find out about this twist until they’d done a mad scramble for money the morning before the Auction. Dee ended up with the most money ($900 out of a total of $5,000 up for grabs), and quickly paid to protect her vote by spending all of it on a milkshake. They could certainly change the rules if they did another Auction, but you’ve been warned. Stay in the middle of the pack with your cash if you can and give yourself the flexibility to buy yourself out of trouble if you need to.

(Not so) Randomly chosen teams

In the two most recent seasons, the players were taken by surprise when an ominous Treemail note at final 9 that said they had to divide themselves into three, 3-person teams. The 46 cast didn’t put much thought into it. Most of them were fed up with Q. Ben, Kenzie and Tiffany teamed up immediately, then Hunter asked to work with Charlie and Maria. That left Liz and Venus stuck with Q. I think Drew had the right idea in 45. He spoke up quickly and diplomatically suggested they try to even out the teams so the strength was balanced. But in confessional, he said he wanted to give himself a voting advantage. He suggested he and Dee (who were aligned together) team up with Jake (whom they wanted to vote out). If you team up with two alliance partners and lose the challenge, your alliance may lose a number. Julie didn’t speak up and ended up with Bruce and Kendra. Bruce was also holding an Idol everyone knew about. If you get stuck with two members from the opposing alliance, then YOU might leave if you lose the challenge. So, I guess the lesson here is keep your friends close but keep at least one enemy closer. And stay away from an enemy with an Idol.

Hopefully, we’ll never see the Turn Back Time hourglass or the Do or Die dice again. You’ll have to rely on your social game to avoid being left off a team if the players do the picking. But if you draw the wrong rock, good luck.

So that brings us to Final Tribal Council. Should you be lucky/skillful enough to get there, it’s obviously better to be the frontrunner. Most Jury votes are decided before FTC begins. Jurors just want to be reassured. But as we saw last season, minds can definitely be changed. The poll taken right after the voting last season revealed that five jurors changed their votes based on the finalists’ answers. With Kenzie, this means she entered FTC with a likely 6-3 win. Charlie’s strong performance changed 3 votes to his side. But Kenzie’s performance took 2 of Charlie’s votes away. Kenzie recognized how Charlie was winning over some jurors, so she stepped up her game. If her read on the jurors wasn’t accurate, she wouldn’t have made an adjustment. In Kaoh Rong, Aubry didn’t recognize the jury drifting towards Michele, didn’t adjust, and lost the game. Cassidy didn’t make a good adjustment when Gabler started killing it either.

Dammit, Cassidy!

I think the Kenzie/Charlie/Ben jury was an anomaly. It’s rare that so many votes are changed at the last moment. But you should be prepared to either enhance your case or detract from your competitors, even if it embarrasses them. Think of how Sophie dealt a fatal blow to Coach in South Pacific by telling her jury “Men in Survivor have the ability to get two young girls to follow them. I couldn’t do that, but I saw Coach as the equivalent to a young girl. He said, ‘My loyalty is worth more than a million dollars.’ I knew he wouldn’t write my name down.” Coach never recovered.

Oh, wait! I almost forgot about one last factor: Prepare yourself for food coma. At final 9 in 45, vegetarian Kendra won a chicken reward. At the same time, three players lost their votes, but went on a Journey where they’d have a chance to get their votes back. Upon returning, Austin, Emily and Katurah all said they couldn’t solve the puzzle and lost their votes. The food affected Kendra’s brain because at Tribal Council, she was shocked when Probst suggested they could be lying. Kendra said “I ate my first chicken today for the first time in 15 years. I think my mind’s working differently. Maybe I had some meat sweats today.” Austin was lying, and Kendra got voted out. Then in 46, Ben and Kenzie became very close after the merge. She helped him through his Night Terrors. They even shared a Pizza Reward. But at Tribal Council, Ben inexplicably voted for Kenzie when he was supposed to vote for Venus. When asked about it at the next Tribal Council, Ben said he drew a blank because “I was drunk off the pizza.” Ben’s was the only vote cast against Kenzie the entire game. So, maybe the lesson here is don’t each chicken or pizza on Survivor. Those foods are strategy killers.

Don’t forget, in 46, we saw all five Idol holders get blindsided with them – Jem, Hunter, Tiffany, Venus and Q. In total, 10 New Era players have left the game while holding an Idol. So, if you have an Idol, and get ANY hint you’re in trouble, PLAY YOUR IDOL! That’s the only 100% guarantee you’ll stay in the game. It’s better to take the shot at finding another Idol than to sleep with it at Ponderosa. I’ve given up on telling people to keep their mouths shut when they find an Idol. They’re just not listening to me.

So, there you have it. A can’t miss, sure-fire, foolproof plan for winning New Era Survivor, brought to you from someone who has never played the game, never will play it, but can’t stop talking about it. I’ll be here all season long to tell this new group of players what they’re doing right and wrong, and what they should do to recover when they don’t take my advice…given to them months after they played…when they can’t hear me screaming at the screen.

Did I miss anything? Did Gabler have some master plan from start to finish that totally escaped my eagle eye? Let me know what you think in the comments. Maybe we can get through to some of these players.