First a couple of notes from my rewatch of last week’s episode. Last week it was no surprise that Kyle was voted out. Everyone expected that. But what wasn’t expected was seeing a vote for Teeny. Kyle cast that vote. When Probst showed that vote, Teeny’s scowling face jerked to the right. But Kyle was sitting on Teeny’s left. And who was on Teeny’s right? Genevieve. All three of them were in the back row. Andy and Caroline were in the front row to Teeny’s right, but I think Teeny threw the death stare at Genevieve. Teeny certainly didn’t think Kyle cast that vote. This might come into play down the stretch. This was the first vote against Teeny all season.

Genevieve is already high on Teeny’s hitlist of course, but its possible this could spark Teeny into making a mistake. Suppose Teeny gets hell-bent on getting revenge on Genevieve, and pushes even harder to remove Genevieve next. Teeny was pretty insistent about Kyle leaving, even saying “I’m not doing that” when Sam suggested going after Andy or Sue. But if Teeny puts a foot down for Genevieve it could be perceived as trying to take charge of the game. Teeny would be the next mole sticking its head up just like Genevieve did when she engineered the blindside on Sol. That could easily backfire. At final 5 in San Juan del Sur, most of the players saw Baylor as a goat. Most fans wondered why Natalie Anderson would remove Baylor instead of her mother Missy, who’d been playing a stronger game. But as Natalie would explain much later, Baylor became uncooperative, and thought she could dictate the votes. Natalie knew she couldn’t manipulate Baylor anymore, so she removed the vote she couldn’t control. With a loss of composure, Teeny could become the vote nobody can control, and suffer because of it.

Genevieve of course is waiting to get clipped. She’s on board for voting anyone else out. Sam is almost in the same boat, but his name has only been written down once, and most have only been using him as a decoy vote. Does anybody really want him gone yet? Andy and Sue are unknowingly waiting for a zero-vote goat seat. We’ve heard what Andy thinks of his game, but what is Sue’s plan? Is she gonna tell the Jury “A-Ha! I’m really 59! I fooled you all!” How shocked will she be when the jurors shrug and ask “That’s great. Why should we vote for you?” Rachel has trinkets (one is public, one is secret) that figure to get her at least to the fire challenge. Rachel and Teeny easily have the best game stories to tell if they get to the end.

But going into this episode, I’m most curious about Caroline. She has shown she’s got a pretty accurate view of her position in the game. She knew her chances of winning were weaker while Gabe was in it. She knows she can beat Sue too. That’s probably why she worked so hard to keep Sue on her side after admitting to helping remove Gabe. Props to her for getting that done. But how does she see the rest of the remaining players? Who does she think can beat her in the end? Who else does she want in the finals with her? How does she plan on removing everyone else, and how will she raise her Jury profile? Will she remember how badly she wanted Rachel gone just a short while ago?

Oh, and Sue wrote “Tweedle Dum” on her vote for Kyle. That means she believed the BS Andy was feeding her. I don’t think Sue’s BS meter has ever been working in this game. Who’s gonna feed her this week?

And away we go ...

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Ok, we get it Sue, you didn’t like Kyle. The horse is dead, stop beating it.

Caroline thinks she and Sue have been running the game. That’s so cute.

Caroline: “I wonder if Sue sees her daughter in me.” Sue’s daughter would tell her when there’s dirt on her face.

And right on cue, Sue tells Caroline she has dirt on her face.

Genevieve feeds Andy some BS to get him on her side. Is he buying it? I’m not sure. In confessional, Genevieve says she needs to play small, but the first thing she does is play big and pitch Teeny on booting Rachel. And immediately, Teeny calls BS on her. Then Genevieve makes it worse by saying Teeny is playing an emotional game. Why did she think that would work? That was pretty sloppy, Genevieve.

Teeny goes straight to Rachel and Andy and reports Genevieve’s move. So much for playing small. And neither of them care that Andy is there.

Rachel: “But I do have the Idol that nobody knows about.” That might be my favorite statement of New Era Survivor.

We’ve seen every part of this Challenge before, but it’s never been a 2-level perch at the end. I suppose that’s new-ish?

Sue plugs her ears when Probst describes the Reward food, probably because she knows she’s not gonna win it. My gut says letters from home are coming, so it’s a good time NOT to win. I think Sam has the edge in this physical challenge. But Rachel takes the early lead. What are you thinking, Rachel!

But Sam blazes through the net and takes the lead.

Sam pulls it out. His choices will be interesting, but he’s bound to piss somebody off. If he’s smart, he’ll leave Genevieve behind.

I knew it. Letters from home. Now some people will be even more angry. Why are players surprised when this happens?

I wonder if Sam could gain favor by giving up this Reward? Probably not.

Sam tells everyone Andy is the most deserving? Leaving someone behind is bad enough but telling everyone else they’re less deserving than Andy was just plain stupid. Then he makes an even worse strategic decision by taking Genevieve. He might have just united the other four against him even more.

Then Teeny spells it out for everyone. “I hope they enjoy their last supper.” I’d really like to know what Sam was thinking.

Did Sam make the worst Reward picks in Survivor history, regardless how things work out? I’m not even sure if my extensive notes have compiled that information.

Sam: “I hope the people at camp aren’t mad at me.” Think again, Sam. Even if you can talk Andy back into your favor, nobody cares what Andy thinks anyway. How does bringing him along help you?

Andy just said “presservered” instead of “persevered.” Can you tell these letters from home aren’t hitting my kindler, gentler side? I guess I’m more affected by letters from children.

Back at camp Teeny says “Sam just quit the game.” I agree with you Teeny, but it’s not in your best interest to go off on him. They’ve already got the message. The first thing one of these women will tell Sam when he returns is how Teeny blew up.

Teeny is so laser-focused on booting Sam, but Genevieve is the smarter boot. Who is more likely to give you their Jury vote?

Caroline is smart for pitching an all-women final 4, but she should be planning on sitting next to Andy. And saying it out loud almost guarantees it won’t happen. She’s sounding mighty cocky in her confessional “I can see the million dollars. I can see myself winning this game.”

Oh no! these women are gonna burn Wardog’s log??? That log has been there since Edge of Extinction? It’s a Survivor landmark!

Wait, I think I saw a shot of them burning that log earlier in the episode.

Andy: “I have a plan.” A plan that probably won’t work because nobody cares what Andy thinks. But what other choice do Sam and Genevieve have?

Andy spills Rachel’s secret about her Block A Vote. Reason #34 why they should have booted Andy instead of Jon, but Rachel didn’t make that call, Sam and Sierra did.

Sam pulls out his expired Idol. Did he forget that Rachel not only knows about it, but knows what it looks like? I took notes. The Idol Sam found was a yellow string with two white beds and a small green bead on it. This is NOT the expired Idol Sam had.

We’re seeing a lot of Sam acting like he knows he’s dead meat, but it doesn’t look to me like anybody is buying it.

The obvious flaw in “Operation: Italy” is that when trying to sell a phony Idol, the LAST thing an actual Idol holder would do at the moment they most needed an Idol is tell everyone they’ve got it. (Then again, Hunter did exactly that last season, didn’t he)?

They have to make others believe they discovered it on their own without the Idol holder knowing it. In Heroes vs. Villains, Rupert put a rock in his pocket and just walked around camp. Russell saw Rupert’s bulge and believed he’d found an Idol. That bought Rupert a few more days. Even Rupert was smart enough to not just say “I found an Idol,” and we all know what a titan of strategic thought Rupert has been.

And for Andy’s plan to push Genevieve as the decoy target, neither Genevieve nor Sam can have Immunity. They have to prevent their target Rachel from winning too. That’s a very tall order.

Genevieve makes a phony Idol. By my count, this is the 32nd one we’ve seen in U.S. Survivor, the first being the one Austin made in Panama - Exile Island. Austin chickened out and decided not to use it. Kenzie made one last season and tried to fool Jess into finding it. When that failed, Q just gave it to Jess claiming he wanted to save her. Jess didn’t think it was real, but played it anyway.

Sue appears to be buying it, but Sue buys everything.

We’re not hearing anything from Rachel about “Operation: Italy.” I don’t think she’s sold. I’m hoping her BS meter works and she uses one of her trinkets to kill it. Caroline sounds like she’s cool with switching the target to Genevieve, but I think Teeny is gonna block that with more passion used to block Sam’s plan last week.

Andy doesn’t seem to know that if his plan works, it only helps him if he gets the credit for it. And if he gets the credit, he’ll have just pissed off at least 3 remaining players and thrown away one Jury vote.

I think this is a mostly-new Immunity Challenge. The "push the skulls" part is definitely new.

This cage/skull part reminds me a little of Foosball.

Sam is working that paddle with the subtle touch of a walrus on acid.

Rachel has two balls placed and nobody else can even get one on the board. Rachel wins Immunity. So much for “Plan Italy.” This gives Sam and Genevieve HUGE incentive to save themselves by selling Andy out. In last week’s preview, Sam said “Andy is stirring the drink.” I think we’re gonna see that soon. This could easily backfire on Andy who didn’t have the foresight to pick a secondary target or use a more flexible plan to use depending on who won Immunity.

I couldn’t help but notice nobody ran up to hug Rachel when she won. This probably means the hugs she got last week were more out of joy they could remove Kyle than happiness for Rachel. Good call on that one, Jeff Pitman.

Ok, there was some more “creative editing” happening. In one shot, we see Genevieve just starting to grab her paddle. In the background we see Caroline untying her double-sided hammer thingy to push the skulls through the Foosball cage. But in a later shot, after Rachel has placed 2 balls, we see Caroline still crossing the balance beam. Next we see quick cuts of everyone else dropping a ball. In the big picture, it doesn’t mean much, but it tells me that this challenge was never close. Rachel blew the field away. She placed her last ball while Caroline was still untying her hammer thingy.

Sam promises his vote to Genevieve if he’s on the Jury and she makes it to the final. Does he mean that, or is he angling to get her vote if the roles are reversed? Then Sam picks the new target of Caroline. Didn’t he want Sue out twice before?

Teeny: “I don’t think Genevieve has an Idol.” If Andy pushes too hard for a split vote, he’ll put himself under more suspicion. Why do these people think she’s got an Idol? If she had one, surely, she’d have played it by now. Nobody played an Idol recently, so why do they think a new one would show up now?

Genevieve was a little too obvious about selling her phony Idol to Teeny. And sure enough Teeny asks to see the note. Genevieve claims she buried it. Does Teeny buy it? If it were me, I’d insist on seeing it anyway, just to see the reaction. But Teeny wants Sam to be gone anyway, and doesn’t push it. But why would Teeny put ANY trust into Genevieve? Andy is saying “I want it to be Caroline,” but we already saw Sam pushing for her. Once again, Andy thinks HE picked the target.

Andy saying Caroline is the brains of the Caroline/Sue partnership isn’t really saying much because all Sue has been doing is following others. His target should be Teeny.

Wait, Caroline is flattered to know someone is voting against her? What is she thinking? Don’t you know it’s a BAD thing for people to write your name down? If I ever play Survivor with Caroline, I’ll suggest she be the decoy vote.

Sue makes the first smart strategic suggestion and knows they need Rachel to block someone’s vote ... and Caroline resists it??? Again, what are you thinking Caroline?

Then Sue offers to play her Idol for Caroline and she STILL resists??? I’ve got to use the pseudo-Ghostbusters line here. If someone offers to play their Idol for you, you say “YES!”

This is why Rachel shouldn’t have told anyone about her Block A Vote. She could have total control with total secrecy. When people know you’ve got something, they can make a plan to defeat it.

I’m not sure who is buying which BS story, and that makes this a pretty good episode in my eyes.

Most of this season, I was coaching Fall Little League and we had Wednesday night practices. So, I watched Survivor after recording it, and breezed past the commercials. The baseball season is over and I’m watching Survivor live now. I’m realizing how much I can’t stand these Medicare Advantage commercials. They were mildly annoying when Jimmie Walker and Joe Namath were doing them. They’re pure torture now with a generic voiceover.

I wanted to see the Jury’s reaction to learning who Sam took on the Reward, but Teeny’s was pretty good.

Teeny is smirking while Genevieve gave her “I feel human again” speech. Teeny is really entertaining me tonight. Now Teeny has got a “you’re full of it” expression while Andy is talking.

Teeny: “(Being left behind) reversed me out of this emotional rut.” That’s a great statement to make in front of the Jury, and it sounded completely sincere. Teeny kills it at Tribal Council on a regular basis. That’s why these players need Teeny out of the game.

Sue: “I’m gonna take the reins by the horns.” How many metaphors did she screw up here?

I wonder if Rachel played her Block A Vote? She had to make a declaration before leaving for Tribal Council. Whoever she blocks won’t find out until they get in the booth.

Sue has to be leaving dirt on her face on purpose. Does she want to look like she’s playing harder than she actually is?

That’s a pretty knowing glance between Caroline and Teeny. What are they thinking?

Genevieve: “I’m swinging for the fences. I don’t just want to get to 6 then go home.” Teeny is smirking again. Teeny is the best thing about this episode.

Caroline nods to Teeny as Sue goes up to vote. I’m dying to know what’s up. I love this episode!

Rachel didn’t play her Block A Vote. Everyone not named Rachel might regret that. Rachel is good either way.

Probst asks for any Idols, and Caroline looks at Sue. Did she ask Sue to play her Idol for her or did she talk her into keeping it? Teeny seems to be expecting something too.

Caroline is gone. I’m shocked. I can’t believe that plan actually worked! As Ferris Bueller once said “They bought it!”

Andy: “I’ll explain.” Andy publicly owns this move. Gabe: “Andy flipped again.” The new mole stuck his head up, but I can’t tell if the jurors are impressed or disgusted.

Sue is shocked, and her expression just told the Jury that once again, she didn’t know what was going on.

Next week should be easy to predict. Rachel, Teeny and Sue square off against Andy, Sam and Genevieve. But of course, Rachel is in control because she can block someone’s vote. The women know Genevieve’s Idol is a phony (or at least they should) so they don’t have to worry about that. It doesn’t matter whose vote Rachel blocks because they’ll have a 3-2 edge either way. The only question is who gets clipped. I think it will be Andy or Genevieve.

Caroline in her Exit Comments: “Andy flipped.” That’s exactly what she’s gonna say to the Jury too. It sounds like she respects the move, so the question now is will the jury respect Caroline’s opinion

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Recap

I loved this episode.

In my preseason column, I wrote “Caroline cited Emily (45), and Tori (42) as the players she relates to ... Emily Flippen had a “moment of clarity” and made a great adjustment that helped her stick around a while. Caroline needs that moment right now.” I also thought her confidence would make her very annoying, so I’m not gonna pat myself on the back like I did last week with Kyle, but I don’t think Caroline had her “moment of clarity.” She underestimated how much others would lie to her.

I have to respect Andy’s move and give him credit for actually pulling it off. Just the same, I still don’t think he’s got a shot to win. Caroline probably won’t be a bitter juror, but the first four jurors still don’t respect his overall game. And for Andy to change his chances of winning, he’ll need Sam or Genevieve on the Jury to tell everyone how he planned it out. How does Andy put them on the jury and stay in the game himself?

Andy has blown any trust he had with Sue, Rachel and Teeny, and two of them have Idols. Sue is no doubt terrified now and is certain to play hers. If Teeny knows about Sue’s Idol it shouldn’t be hard to convince Sue to play it for someone else. Sue should know she can’t go to final 5 with all three of Andy, Sam and Genevieve around. Rachel will block someone’s vote so she can use her Idol at final 5. The only way Teeny leaves at the next vote is if Sue or Rachel flips, and I just don’t see that happening.

That puts Rachel, Sue and Teeny in the final 5. Nobody trusts Andy or Genevieve, so unless one of them pulls out an Immunity win, I think they leave at 6 and 5. Sam has been so powerless post-merge, I don’t think he can win the game over Rachel or Teeny. What can he tell the Jury that will be better than what either of them can say?

I’m sticking to my opinion that Rachel is gonna be making fire. The only question is who’ll she be competing against? Sue, Teeny and Sam have all done reasonably well in some challenges and crashed and burned in others. Genevieve has done pretty well too, so it comes down to what kind of challenge it is. This season would be a GREAT time to have a totally-new final 4 Immunity Challenge.

What do you think of Andy’s move? Is it enough to remove his goat status? Does Sam or Genevieve have a chance of winning? Do you think Teeny knows about Sue’s Idol? Who’s vote should Rachel block? She needs to do it before leaving for Tribal Council. Which option gives her the maximum return on investment? Let me know what you think in the comments.