Largest Performance Below Expected (PBE)
By: Jeff Pitman | Last updated: May 24, 2019

Largest PBE (performance below expected) - Adam Klein, Millennials vs. Gen X


Ken McNickle

Millennials vs. Gen X



See also:

PAE - Performance Above Expected

PBE (performance below expected) - highest scores
Rank Contestant, Season Season NoJ SNoJ JVF ExJ PBE
1 Ken McNickle, Millennials vs Gen X Ken McNickle Millennials vs Gen X 8.75 15.73 0 5.6 -55.6%
2 Woo Hwang, Cagayan Woo Hwang Cagayan 6.69 12.08 1 5.0 -44.2%
3 Natalie Tenerelli, Redemption Island Natalie Tenerelli Redemption Island 6.81 15.91 0 3.9 -42.8%
4 Stephen Fishbach, Tocantins Stephen Fishbach Tocantins 8.20 19.30 0 3.0 -42.5%
5 Mike Skupin, S2, S25 Mike Skupin Philippines 9.30 18.52 1 4.0 -37.7%
6 Dreamz Herd, Fiji 'Dreamz' Herd Fiji 6.52 17.52 0 3.3 -37.2%
7 Spencer Bledsoe, Cambodia Spencer Bledsoe Cambodia 5.15 14.19 0 3.6 -36.3%
8 Sugar Kiper, Gabon Sugar Kiper Gabon 7.69 21.87 0 2.5 -35.1%
9 Amanda Kimmel, Micronesia Amanda Kimmel China 11.27 22.83 1 3.5 -35.1%
10 Matthew von Ertfelda, S6 Matthew von Ertfelda The Amazon 7.19 15.18 1 3.3 -33.1%
11 Russell Hantz, Heroes vs. Villains Russell Hantz Heroes vs. Villains 5.53 17.05 0 2.9 -32.4%
12 Julie Rosenberg, EoE Julie Rosenberg Edge of Extinction 6.11 19.14 0 4.2 -31.9%
13 Laurel Johnson, Ghost Island Laurel Johnson Ghost Island 6.69 21.10 0 3.5 -31.7%
14 Stephenie LaGrossa, Guatemala Stephenie LaGrossa Guatemala 6.54 14.55 1 3.1 -30.6%
15 Mick Trimming, Samoa Mick Trimming Samoa 4.42 14.51 0 2.7 -30.4%
16 Albert Destrade, South Pacific Albert Destrade South Pacific 6.28 21.01 0 2.7 -29.9%
17 Chelsea Meissner, One World Chelsea Meissner One World 6.20 21.16 0 2.6 -29.3%
18 Tai Trang, Kaoh Rong Tai Trang Kaoh Rong 5.05 17.37 0 2.0 -29.1%
19 Dawn Meehan, Caramoan Dawn Meehan Caramoan 5.15 17.71 0 2.3 -29.1%
20 Sash Lenahan, Nicaragua 'Sash' Lenahan Nicaragua 6.84 24.49 0 2.5 -27.9%
21 Cassandra Franklin, Fiji Cassandra Franklin Fiji 4.84 17.52 0 2.5 -27.6%
22 Gervase Peterson, S27 Gervase Peterson Blood vs. Water 5.09 18.45 0 2.2 -27.6%
23 Boston Rob Mariano, All-Stars Boston Rob Mariano All-Stars 12.67 18.34 3 4.8 -26.2%
24 Kelly Wiglesworth, Borneo Kelly Wiglesworth Borneo 9.69 14.10 3 4.8 -25.8%
25 Danielle DiLorenzo, Panama-Exile Island Danielle DiLorenzo Panama 5.76 10.71 2 3.8 -25.2%
26 Amanda Kimmel, Micronesia Amanda Kimmel Micronesia 9.35 15.03 3 5.0 -24.7%
27 Becky Lee, Cook Islands Becky Lee Cook Islands 5.28 22.52 0 2.1 -23.4%
28 Monica Culpepper, Blood vs. Water Monica Culpepper Blood vs. Water 6.63 18.45 1 2.9 -23.4%
28 Russell Hantz, Samoa Russell Hantz Samoa 6.62 14.51 2 4.1 -23.4%

Complete through Edge of Extinction. Click contestant name/picture to view their contestant page.

What is PBE?

PBE is pretty much just the bottom half of the PAE chart for finalists. But since it represents the people who underperformed before the jury, we broke it off into a separate table (and listed the scores from the largest underperformance on down to the smallest). In seasons 1-29 there were 32 overperformers (positive PAE score) and 40 underperformers (negative PAE). We've listed only the "bottom" 25 here. Sorry, other 15 barely underperformers (including Brian Heidik, S20 Parvati Shallow, S2 Colby Donaldson, and S13 Ozzy Lusth).


Again, PAE uses the "No jury" score (ChW + wTCR). First, we calculate "expected" jury score (ExJ), which is the number of jurors (TotJ) times the ratio of the player's No jury score (NoJ) divided by the sum of all the NoJ scores of the finalists (SNoJ). Basically, in a jury of the size the player saw, they should receive ExJ votes. ExJ = TotJ * [NoJ/(SNoJ)].

Then, PAE is simply the actual number of votes received (JVF), minus ExJ, then divided by the number of jurors, or:

PAE = (JVF - ExJ)/ TotJ. (PBE is just the subset of PAE scores that are below zero.)


So these are the 28 worst PAE scores. Our condolences to all those listed. There are many, many reasons you could end up here: (1) You actively antagonized the jurors, daring them not to vote for you; (2) you did fine, the jury just really, really liked one or more of your opponents better; (3) you rode coattails the entire way, and nobody voted for you; or (4) the most popular excuse... bitter jurors. Feel free to choose whichever or as many as you see fit.


Glossary of terms
  • Challenge stats
    • ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
    • ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
    • ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
    • SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
  • Tribal Council stats
    • VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
    • VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
    • TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
    • TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
    • TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
    • wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
  • Jury stats
    • JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
    • TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
    • JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
  • Overall scores
    • SurvAv: Calculated by the formula SurvAv = ChW + wTCR + wJV%, or SurvAv = ChW + (2*[VFB / (4+VAP)]x(14/TCA)) + (6*JV%), for a maximal score of around 18-20 after jury votes are counted.
    • NoJ: Same as SurvAv minus the jury votes, or NoJ = ChW + wTCR.
    • SNoJ: (Should be SigmaNoJ, but this is the web) Sum of the NoJ scores of the two or three finalists.
    • ExJ: The expected number of jury votes the player might receive, based on NoJ. ExJ = TotJ * [NoJ/(sum of all NoJ of the finalists)].
    • PAE: As described above, PAE = (JVF - ExJ)/ TotJ. It shows the percentage of the players jury vote above (or below) that earned by challenge performance and/or tribal council record. It functions as an estimate of social game.