Highest PAE (performance above expected) - Adam Klein, Millennials vs. Gen X

 

Adam Klein

Millennials vs. Gen X

+75.5%

 

See also:

PBE - Performance Below Expected

Highest PAE (performance above expected)
Rank Contestant Season NoJ SNoJ JVF ExJ PAE
1 Adam Klein, Millennials vs. Gen X Adam Klein Millennials vs. Gen X 3.86 15.73 10 2.5 0.76
2 Earl Cole, Fiji Earl Cole Fiji 6.16 17.52 9 3.2 0.65
3 Jeremy Collins, Cambodia Jeremy Collins Cambodia 6.09 14.19 10 4.3 0.57
4 Denise Stapley, Philippines Denise Stapley Philippines 3.85 18.52 6 1.7 0.54
5 Natalie White, Samoa Natalie White Samoa 3.48 14.51 7 2.2 0.54
6 Tyson Apostol, Blood vs. Water Tyson Apostol Blood vs. Water 6.73 18.45 7 2.9 0.51
7 John Cochran, Caramoan John Cochran Caramoan 9.70 17.71 8 4.4 0.45
8 Tony Vlachos, Cagayan Tony Vlachos Cagayan 5.40 12.08 8 4.0 0.44
9 Boston Rob Mariano, Redemption Island Boston Rob Mariano Redemption Island 7.23 15.91 8 4.1 0.43
10 J.T. Thomas, Tocantins J.T. Thomas Tocantins 11.11 19.30 7 4.0 0.42
11 Sandra Diaz-Twine, HvV Sandra Diaz-Twine Heroes vs. Villains 4.89 17.05 6 2.6 0.38
12 Todd Herzog, China Todd Herzog China 4.44 22.83 4 1.4 0.38
13 Sophie Clarke, South Pacific Sophie Clarke South Pacific 6.18 21.01 6 2.6 0.37
14 Sarah Lacina, Game Changers Sarah Lacina Game Changers 7.06 21.47 7 3.3 0.37
15 Jenna Morasca, S6, S8 Jenna Morasca The Amazon 7.99 15.18 6 3.7 0.33
16 Kim Spradlin, One World Kim Spradlin One World 9.68 21.16 7 4.1 0.32
17 Danni Boatwright, Guatemala Danni Boatwright Guatemala 8.01 14.55 6 3.9 0.31
18 Yul Kwon, Cook Islands Yul Kwon Cook Islands 5.61 22.52 5 2.2 0.31
19 Amber Brkich, All-Stars Amber Brkich All Stars 5.67 18.34 4 2.2 0.26
20 Richard Hatch, Borneo Richard Hatch Borneo 4.42 14.10 4 2.2 0.26
21 Aras Baskauskas, Panama-Exile Island Aras Baskauskas Panama 4.95 10.71 5 3.2 0.25
22 Parvati Shallow, Micronesia - FvF Parvati Shallow Micronesia 5.68 15.03 5 3.0 0.25
23 Michele Fitzgerald, Kaoh Rong Michele Fitzgerald Kaoh Rong 8.31 17.37 5 3.3 0.24
24 Sandra Diaz-Twine, Pearl Islands Sandra Diaz-Twine Pearl Islands 6.83 10.63 6 4.5 0.21
25 Tom Westman, PalauTom Westman Palau 12.66 19.27 6 4.6 0.20
26 Fabio Birza, Nicaragua 'Fabio' Birza Nicaragua 8.80 24.49 5 3.2 0.20
27 Susie Smith, Gabon Susie Smith Gabon 5.40 21.87 3 1.7 0.18
28 Ethan Zohn, Africa Ethan Zohn Africa 9.87 18.33 5 3.8 0.18
29 Mike Holloway, Worlds Apart Mike Holloway Worlds Apart 13.26 22.94 6 4.6 0.17
30 Bob Crowley, Gabon Bob Crowley Gabon 8.79 21.87 4 2.8 0.17
31 Tina Wesson, The Australian Outback Tina Wesson The Australian Outback 8.59 19.52 4 3.1 0.13

Complete through Game Changers. Click contestant name/picture to view their contestant page.

What is PAE?

PAE is intended to reflect that great, unmeasurable component of Survivor: a finalist's social game. We can only use it to evaluate finalists, because it measures the degree to which the jury votes a finalist receives reflects their physical (challenges) and strategic (voting people out) games. If the finalist receives significantly more jury votes than their prior performance would predict, then it seems likely they had a good social game. If they receive fewer (or no) jury votes, then their social game was probably poor. Straightforward, right?

 

Caveats: (1) Everything is context-dependent: one person's decent social game might look pitiful against a social master, yet brilliant against a belligerent, anti-social troll. (2) Also, if one of the finalists completely dominated every aspect of the game, AND was brilliant socially (Kim Spradlin), they will probably be undervalued here. But it's the best we can do (feel free to debate this assertion in the comments). Here's how we came up with the formula:

 

PAE uses the "No jury" score (ChW + wTCR). First, we calculate "expected" jury score (ExJ), which is the number of jurors (TotJ) times the ratio of the player's No jury score (NoJ) divided by the sum of all the NoJ scores of the finalists (SNoJ). Basically, in a jury of the size the player saw, they should receive ExJ votes. ExJ = TotJ * (NoJ/SNoJ).

 

Then, PAE is simply the actual number of votes received (JVF), minus ExJ, then divided by the number of jurors, or:

PAE = (JVF - ExJ)/ TotJ.

 

The final number reflects the percent of the jury votes received that did not reflect prior challenge or tribal council performance. Or "social game." For example, in Fiji, Earl, Cassandra, and Dreamz had ExJ scores of 3.2, 2.5, and 3.3, respectively (Earl didn't win any challenges). This projects as a virtual tie between Earl and Dreamz. Yet in reality, Earl swept the jury vote, 9-0-0, for a PAE score of 0.65, or 65%. A testament to Earl's ability to convince the jurors to vote for him.

Glossary of terms
  • Challenge stats
    • ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
    • ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
    • ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
    • SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
  • Tribal Council stats
    • VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
    • VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
    • TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
    • TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
    • TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
    • wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
  • Jury stats
    • JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
    • TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
    • JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
  • Overall scores
    • SurvAv: Calculated by the formula SurvAv = ChW + wTCR + wJV%, or SurvAv = ChW + (2*[VFB / (4+VAP)]x(14/TCA)) + (6*JV%), for a maximal score of around 18-20 after jury votes are counted.
    • NoJ: Same as SurvAv minus the jury votes, or NoJ = ChW + wTCR.
    • SNoJ: (Should be SigmaNoJ, but this is the web) Sum of the NoJ scores of the two or three finalists.
    • ExJ: The expected number of jury votes the player might receive, based on NoJ. ExJ = TotJ * [NoJ/(sum of all NoJ of the finalists)].
    • PAE: As described above, PAE = (JVF - ExJ)/ TotJ. It shows the percentage of the players jury vote above (or below) that earned by challenge performance and/or tribal council record. It functions as an estimate of social game.

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