I usually don’t put much stock into what players say in their exit interviews. Most of the time those interviews are a case of “They didn’t tell the story from my perspective.” A lot of players don’t understand that their actual story is of how the other players perceived them. If nine people say they voted you out because you were annoying, it doesn’t matter that you think you were voted out because you were the biggest threat to win. In the final edit, whatever you did to make others think you were annoying is what’s gonna be seen as opposed to the times you made some people laugh.

But this week, MC said something in her exit interviews that absolutely rang true and made me want to look back at a subject I hoped I wouldn’t need to revisit. MC said the reason she blew up Sophie S.’s plan to blindside Jawan was because she didn’t want the first two jurors to be Black. In Survivor 42, Maryanne and Drea entered Tribal Council planning on voting for each other but changed their minds when they saw black players Rocksroy and Chanelle on the Jury. MC likely remembered this moment.

I’m not gonna speculate on why other players (minority or otherwise) changed their votes at the last minute. Instead, I’m gonna focus on one particular fan theory about minorities that seems to regularly surface: “Minority players are more likely to work with each other than other groups.”

In this particular case, MC wanted (or expected) to form a bond with Jawan based partly on race. MC hoped Jawan would help vote out Sophie S. or Rizo. The problem was that Jawan ultimately didn’t make a race-based decision. He made an individual, game strategy-based decision, and helped vote out MC instead.

With that in mind, I’ll look back at the New Era seasons (which is when Producers agreed to populate the cast with at least 50% minorities) and identify which minority players chose to work together, and which ones didn’t. I won’t speculate as to the reasons why they made their decisions. My intent here is to simply provide the facts. Of course, since there have been a lot more minority players in each New Era season’s casts, there are many more opportunities for race-based connections to be made. However, that also means there are more connections that could NOT be made. I’ll also add the disclaimer that there are some players whom I’m not sure of their race and ethnicity. Don’t bite my head off if I make a mistake or miss someone here.

I explored this subject in two of the first columns I wrote for True Dork Times, a two-part look at Race In Survivor (Part 1 here, Part 2 here). MC’s comments provided good timing for a nine-season retrospective.

Survivor 41: Black players Abraham, JD, Deshawn, Danny, Shantel, & Liana; Hispanic player Ricard; Asian players Genie, Naseer & Erika. Liana & Abraham never worked together. She helped vote him out 1st overall. Shantel & JD voted together twice, but then Shantel led the push to vote JD out. Her closest ally was Ricard. Danny and Deshawn were loyal partners the entire season, even conspiring to throw a challenge to boot Erika. They had no choice but to vote against each other at final 6. Naseer and Erika were never alliance partners either, even though they voted together against consensus target Sydney at the merge. Erika helped vote Naseer out 2 votes later. Post-merge, Danny, Deshawn, Liana, & Shantel (with Ricard as a 5th) formed an alliance and openly discussed the need to stay united in the wake of the Black Lives Matter movement. The women never voted against the guys, but the guys turned on Shantel after deciding she’d betrayed them. They helped execute Ricard’s plan to blindside her at final 8.

Survivor 42: Black players Maryanne, Chanelle, Rocksroy, & Drea; Hispanic players Mike & Romeo; Asian players Swati, Hai, Jenny & Omar. Rocksroy & Drea voted together against Zach but were never strategically aligned together. They voted separately at final 14 and 12, then both voted to remove Chanelle at 11. Maryanne and Drea weren’t in the same camp util the merge. They argued with each other but voted with the majority against Lydia. They voted separately at final 11, then agreed not to vote for each other at 10. Ultimately, Maryanne helped vote Drea out at final 7. Hai and Jenny were never aligned. Hai helped vote Jenny out fourth overall. Hai and Mike were partnered for a while until Omar convinced Mike to help remove Hai.

Survivor 43: Black players Morriah, Nneka, Dwight, James, & Ryan; Hispanic players Justine, Karla, Geo, & Jesse; Asian players Jeanine & Owen. Jesse helped vote Justine out first overall from his tribe, then Dwight helped vote out Nneka next. Karla initially told Geo they’d be partners and they voted together to blindside Lindsay, but she helped send Geo home at the next vote. They were never actually aligned. At the merge, Ryan and James voted for Dwight, and Dwight voted for James. James and Ryan both voted against Jeanine at the next Tribal, but they were separated and both of them were removed in split Tribal Councils. They were never really aligned either. Loner Ryan was probably closer to Geo.

Survivor 44: Black players Claire, Lauren, Bruce, Joshua, & Brandon; Hispanic players Maddy, Jaime, Heidi, Matt G., & Yam Yam; Asian player Helen. Bruce was medevaced on day 1. Matt G. and Jaime both played their Shot in the Dark and didn’t have a vote when Maddy left 2nd overall. Maddy had targeted Brandon. It’s not clear if Jaime or Matt G. were aligned with her. Lauren also didn’t vote so she could get an Advantage, but she was cooperating with Brandon. Heidi and Yam Yam voted together three times and differently four times. They were never aligned but didn’t target each other either. Joshua helped vote Claire out first from their tribe. Joshua was voted out at final 12. Lauren voted for Joshua, but Brandon voted for Yam Yam. Lauren and Brandon both voted for Frannie at final 10, but Frannie was saved by Danny’s Idol and Brandon left instead.

Survivor 45: Black players Sabiyah, Katurah, Sifu, Bruce, & Kaleb; Hispanic player Dee; Asian players J. Maya, Sean, Brando, & Austin. Sabiyah and Kaleb began working together after finding out Emily had targeted them both. But then Kaleb helped vote Sabiyah out at their third Tribal Council and took Emily under his wing. Katurah lobbied to remove Bruce the entire season but the two of them voted with the majority against Kaleb, then against J. Maya at final 13. Katurah finally got her wish and helped vote Bruce out at final 8. J. Maya voted for Sean (at Sean’s request) at final 15. Austin helped remove Brando at final 14. None of the Asian players ever aligned together.

Survivor 46: Black players Soda, Tiffany, Tim, Tevin, & Q; Hispanic players Maria & Randen; Asian players Jess, Jem, Venus, & Bhanu. Jess and Bhanu complied with Q’s request to vote Jelinsky out first overall but then Bhanu helped vote Jess out next. Randen was medevaced before he could vote. Q aligned with Tiffany and included her in his “Journey 6” alliance but the two of them butted heads all game. They voted together six times, separately once, and ultimately voted against each other at final 8 when Tiffany was blindsided. Tevin and Soda pledged loyalty to each other but didn’t go to Tribal until the merge. They voted against consensus target Moriah but at the next vote, Tevin engineered the blindside on Soda while voting with Soda against Venus to keep his cover. They played nice to each other’s faces but were never really loyal partners.

Survivor 47: Black players Aysha, T.K., & Rome; Hispanic players Teeny & Gabe; Asian players Anika, Tiyana, Rachel, Kishan, Sol, & Andy. Rachel and Anika aligned together (with Sierra) to vote Jon out first overall. Andy also voted for Jon but was a clear outsider. Rachel voted against Andy when Anika was blindsided with help from Andy. Rachel and Andy voted together against Rome, Sol and Gabe, but voted differently at final 8 and 7. Andy’s “Operation Italy” was intended to remove Rachel. Andy and Rachel voted against each other at final 6 when Andy left. TK was booted first from his tribe. Rome and Aysha took dead aim at each other and never considered aligning together. Teeny and Gabe voted together three times and separately twice, Teeny helping vote Gabe out at final 9. They were never partners as Teeny often changed a vote at the last minute after realizing the majority wasn’t voting for Teeny’s target.

Survivor 48: Black players Charity, Star, Sai, Cedrek, Joe, & Kyle; Hispanic player Mitch; Asian players Mary, Kamilla, Kevin & Shauhin. Sai joined an alliance with Cedrek after failing to convince Stephanie and Mary to align with her. Cedrek and Sai voted together three times, but Sai lost trust when Cedrek helped trick Sai into playing her Idol when she didn’t need to. Cedrek voted for Sai twice in a row before changing his vote to remove Justin. Sai spent the rest of her time in the game telling others not to trust Cedrek. Charity didn’t go to Tribal Council until the merge when she was the first voted out. Every Black player except Sai (who voted for Cedrek) voted for Charity. Joe voted for Kyle at their first Tribal, then they voted together 7 times in a row. Kyle’s closest partner was Kamilla, and Joe was closest to Eva. Mary and Kevin aligned together but voted differently at their first TC. Mary didn’t have a vote when Kevin was removed. Mary, Kamilla and Shauhin voted together against Cedrek and Chrissy, but differently at 3 other votes. Kamilla was closest to Kyle, and Mary to David. Shauhin’s loyalties were more fluid between Kyle, Joe, Kamilla and David.

That brings us to this season. Black players Nate, Jawan, Alex, Kristina, & MC; Asian players Savannah, Jeremiah, & Jason; Hispanic players Sophi B. and Sophie S. Nate and Jawan seemed like natural alliance partners since video editor Jawan loves the Marvel movies Nate helps produce. But they never came close to aligning together. Jawan and Alex helped blindside Nate at final 11 in a move sparked by Jawan’s desire for revenge on the alliance that excluded him. Kristina joined an alliance that included MC, but MC knew she was on the bottom and pitched Sophie S. on joining with her. MC wanted Jawan to make a race-based voting decision to boot Sophie S., but Jawan wasn’t interested and helped vote out MC instead. After a swap, Savannah helped vote out Jason, who was outnumbered. So far, Sophi B. and Sophie S. haven’t shown any signs of aligning together, voting differently at final 11 – the only Tribal they’ve attended together.

Now of course, we don’t get to see every interaction that happens during the course of a season. Most of that gets edited out of the final broadcast. That’s what happened with MC’s race-based pitch to Jawan. But I think there’s enough evidence here to debunk the notion that players will gravitate towards each other purely based on race. Most players – whether or not they’re minorities – will make more self-interested strategic decisions. MC is a perfect example. She diplomatically said “yes” to joining an alliance with Kristina, then sold it out to Sophie S. in an attempt to improve her position. Her choice for a #1 partner was Steven. MC had no problem sending Nate to the Jury first to keep herself safe. But when she felt secure, she didn’t want a second Black player to join him next (which ironically doomed her to join Nate herself). And Jawan clearly doesn’t make race-based decisions, resisting opportunities to align with Nate and MC, although it should be noted that he wanted Rizo or Savannah gone instead of Nate. But again, that wasn’t a race-based decision either. Jawan wanted to remove the intimidating player he perceived to have more control and/or influence.

I also believe race won’t be a factor at all in the upcoming Survivor 50 simply because it’s an all-returning player season. Player reputations tend to affect voting decisions much more than anything else in such seasons. If Dee, Cirie or Kyle leave early, I’d bet it will have more to do with their reputations than their race. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that S50 will be the first New Era season with less than 50% minority representation. 13 of the 22 confirmed players are white.

So, what’s in store for the rest of this season? Does Sophie S. end up aligning with Sophi B., Savannah and Rizo? Or do she and Sophi B. cross paths as they join new alliances? Does Jawan end up helping take out Alex and Kristina or do they start working together? How does Kristina’s Idol (and Alex’s knowledge of that Idol) affect these possibilities?

And away we go…

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What’s the spin Rizo & Co. come up for this vote? They could cover their tracks for the rest of the game or provide the best reason to take aim at all of them.

Wait, Kristina was planning on going to the final 3 with MC? Since when were they so close?

Sophie S.: “I fought like hell to stay in, and she (MC) threw me under the bus.” Hmm ... that’s the same line Sage used to flip Jawan against Shannon. How will it work for Sophie S.?

Sophie S. calls a spade a spade. Since they all expected her to be gone, that means none of them valued her very much (which she already knew). I’m sure it was hard to hide their shock, but they should have at least given thought to this possibility after Savannah disappeared from camp.

Savannah tells Sophi B. she has an Extra Vote, which means Sophi B. can take it with her Knowledge Is Power if she wants to.

Rizo in confessional: “I put on a master class of a performance.” Even though he’s 100% right, having that kind of attitude has a tendency to blow up your face. I say it all the time. Survivor winners usually have to show some humility. Rizo would be smart to tone it down a lot when around the other players.

I wonder who painted “I love MC on the tree? Whoever it is has a tattoo on the back of their right hand.

Hey, look it’s Sage’s tattoo. And Steven just armed her with the info that Kristina has an Idol. Remember last week when I said Kristina might as well assume everyone knows about it?

It’s great that Sophie S. realized she was on the bottom of the Hina tribe (almost too late), but I say she still has the same blind spots. What’s her plan for moving up in this new alliance of hers? Does she realize she’s trading a 4th position for another 4th position? She might even be 6th if Jawan and Sage stay in the fold.

Alex’s position is similar to Sarah’s in S34: Game Changers, right in the middle of two struggling alliances. But he’s being aggressive and pushing himself to both groups, which Rizo sees through. Sarah waited for both groups to tell her what to do. She ended up pissing off most of her jurors but got lucky when Brad pissed them off more. How will this play out for Alex?

Hmm, I don’t recognize most of the elements in this challenge except for that big cage they might have to carry or roll. Then again, they already carried a cage this season. Ok, I get it, they just put a spin on each element of challenges they’ve used before. The Oar with the rings on it is totally new though (I think). Maybe they took some of this from Australian Survivor?

Probst says it’s gonna be a schoolyard pick, but once again we don’t get to see it. Sure, Probst recapped the picks from Captains Kristina and Rizo, but I’m certain he didn’t recite them in the order they were chosen. It looks like Rizo had the first pick because he’s got three guys on his team compared to Kristina’s one. Or maybe they did a snake draft with Kristina picking Alex first, then Rizo getting the next two picks in Steven and Jawan.

I say it takes Sophie B. about six seconds to start searching the sitout bench.

It looks to me like the sandbag tossing spotlight role is tougher than the bag spinning spotlight role. And the ring tossing is just as hard.

Alex wins it for Team Blue, and his prize is the title of challenge beast. It looked like Sophie S. was trying her best with the sandbags, but that was an excellent chance to sandbag it (pun intended) since she’s already wearing a “beast” label. No reason to enhance it on a Reward Challenge. Now Alex is getting all the Probst praise.

Wow, just as I was thinking someone could really kiss some ass by trading with Jawan, Kristina does exactly that. If I’m one of Kristina’s teammates, I’m thinking she’s pandering for Jawan’s Jury vote. Jawan came out of this looking better than Kristina. She just created a reason to want her gone.

But I like the strategic implications here. We have members of both opposing alliances (trust clusters?) in both groups. Who’s gonna be brave enough to throw out a name knowing everyone else will find out? Kristina doesn’t seem to know that “mother figures” haven’t piled up many Survivor wins. People resent being voted out by “mother” figures like Dawn in S26: Caramoan, Carolyn in S30: Worlds Apart, Missy in S29: San Juan del Sur, and Julie in S38: Edge of Extinction.

If I’m Jawan, I’m scanning that Reward spread for Advantage clues and disguising it by being real aggressive about grabbing each bowl of food.

Sophie S. hammers her point home. Her message is clear “I’m a free agent.”

Jawan is getting as cocky in his confessionals as Rizo is. He needs to pick a side while making the other side think he’s still with him, like Kim did in S24: One World. But once he chooses, he needs to wipe out the other side without pissing them off ... like Kim did in S24: One World. Jawan needs a Troyzan to piss people off so they can complain to Jawan about that person. If Jawan sides with Rizo, he needs to forget about booting Rizo for a while.

Why is it so hard to keep the chickens in their cage?

Sage supports Kristina’s split vote plan. The problems I see are 1) The theme to Sage’s season seems to be “I can’t get any votes pushed through, and 2) The theme to Kristina’s game seems to be “I think I’m in charge and have no idea nobody thinks I am.”

Yo, Kristina, pitching Sophi B. on booting Rizo when you have almost zero relationship with her is a bad move. I’m thinking this will backfire on Kristina tonight. Hmm ... Steven, Alex, and Sage all know about Kristina’s Idol. Sophi B. can find out about it from Alex. This could be fun to watch. Could we see someone lose their Idol and get blindsided in the same Tribal Council?

Sophi B. earns enough trust from Savannah that she reveals her secret about being a TV news reporter. I’ve said it several times already this season. Sophi B. is good at this game. She didn’t even give up any information in return. That’s Cirie-level manipulation. Even if Sophie B. doesn’t use this information, Savannah just gave her a great reason to boot Savannah at final 5 or 6.

I love the way Sophi B. is playing this season. By sharing the information she gathered from both sides, she’s not only helping her allies, she’s keeping HER name off the voting radar.

But I’m also impressed with the way Rizo is changing people’s minds about Alex. I’ve never really liked the way Tyson plays Survivor. He rubs a lot of people the wrong way. But this move with Rizo reminds me of how Tyson turned his swapped tribe against Aras and Vytas in S27: Blood vs. Water. Rizo is more aggressive about it than Tyson was, which is probably why Jawan isn’t completely sold on it.

I saw this challenge in the preview from last week’s episode. I think this one is new to U.S. Survivor too.

Ahh, a women’s and men’s Immunity this week. A major wrench goes into everyone’s plans if Savannah and Rizo win.

I’m thinking this will hurt most in your lower back. Your butt cheeks will get numb too.

So much for Rizo’s win. He’s first out.

Steven eases the tension with a lot of space talk. This reminds me of how Christian talked for hours to outlast Alec in S37: David vs. Goliath. But Steven is helping this group. Christian (who we’ll see next season) did it mostly for self-preservation. His babbling kept his mind off his pain.

Sophi B. looks the most comfortable to me.

But she loses concentration and drops out. So much for my observational skills.

Jawan is pressing his disc from the top. He’s got no shot. And just like that, Jawan drops out and Steven wins Immunity. That leaves Savannah and Sophie S. to enhance their beast status.

Sophie S.’s feet are higher on the disc than Savannah’s.

Savannah: “I’m not dropping. I’m not even close.” I can hear the “mean girl” accusations coming again.

Savannah wins Immunity again, and there goes the split vote plan. She really needs to show humility when Probst puts the necklace on her again.

Savannah: “I thought if I drop, my name’s getting written down…” That’s being humble “...it’s not getting written down tonight.” That was NOT being humble.

Rizo knows his name will be written down. He needs to depend on whatever info Sophi B. or Sophie S. brings him to decide if he’s playing his Idol. Unlike last week, I think he’s got a decent shot at keeping it this week.

What is that tucked into Savannah’s top?”

It sounds like Rizo’s plan of turning Jawan against Alex is working.

Sophie S. has all the power at this vote. Whoever she shares the most crucial information with will prevail. Alex’s 11th hour scrambling is hurting him. The fact that Jawan and Sage are seriously considering Rizo’s plan tells me Rizo is also very good at this game, even if he’s sloppy at times.

MC won’t like it if Alex gets booted.

My gut is telling me Alex talked his way out of this game by being too aggressive with his loyalty tour.

Savannah: “I’m gonna take a little credit. I’m happy to be the catalyst of some of this cross-pollination we’re seeing tonight ... I’m glad to have disrupted this game...it’s really great of me that I could do that.” Yeah, there’s not an ounce of humility coming from this woman. She’s chasing Jury votes away with every word.

There’s a reason we didn’t see Sophie S. talking with Sage and Jawan tonight. She probably provided the closing argument to endorse either Steven or Rizo’s plan.

Sage: “You can tell when someone is calm and when they get animated.” I call this a BS meter. I’ll cite my favorite player Earl as an example. In S14: Fiji, Dreamz would check in with Earl before every vote with all the info he had. The one time Dreamz didn’t check in, Earl knew Dreamz was going after his #1 partner Yau-Man. Earl warned Yau-Man to play his Idol. That’s what saved Yau-Man that night. If you have a good BS meter, you know how a person behaves when they’re telling the truth, and when they’re lying. Winners Sandra, Dee (another S50 returnee), and Denise and non-winners Brenda, Sabrina, Jesse, Carolyn (S30) have some of the best BS meters that come to my mind.

Rizo holds on to his Idol again. Sloppy, sloppy. The best move was to play it and hope your three (maybe four, possibly six) votes are enough to boot Alex.

Sophi B.’s reaction tells me she thinks he should have played it too.

Alex is gone, and Rizo’s plan worked. Alex: “That’s what I get for playing both sides.” That tells me Alex won’t be a bitter juror.

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Recap

No, I don’t think Rizo is a ballsy player. I think he got info that told him his plan worked. If he had any question about how Jawan and Sage were voting, he’d have played his Idol. I think he got tipped off by Sophie S. But of course, Rizo does deserve props for flipping her to his side.

Since Alex is gone, this decreases the chances Sophi B. will find out about Kristina’s Idol (unless we get that in a flashback of course). I suppose Sophie S. or Sage could spread that info. Or Steven could do it as a means of saving himself since he and Kristina are on the bottom now.

Probst hyped the second half of this season as particularly wild. I usually love to disagree with him, but there’s huge potential for his hype to be true. Jawan and Sage figure to be exposed as habitual flippers now. At a minimum, Steven and Kristina can’t trust them anymore. Rizo certainly knows how to manipulate Jawan too. He’ll probably be able to do it again.

What do you think? Is Rizo playing an elite game, or is he just benefiting from spinning Jawan in circles? Is Savannah getting too cocky to win? Who is leaving next week? My gut tells me it will be Sage who’ll lose the S45 Bruce vs Katurah-esque battle. What’s the best move for Steven now? Let me know in the comments.