Normally at this point in the season, I do a detailed recap of each player’s game so far and speculate as to how they might finish. I don’t think I can do that this season because of some spoiler information that may or may not be true. I don’t know who the winner is, but I’m concerned enough about what has been reasonably verified, I’m gonna take a slightly different approach.

This season, I’ll do an abbreviated version of a recap and simply review each player’s current position in the game based on a few factors. 1) Who trusts them? 2) Who have they annoyed (which could of course cost them Jury votes)? 3) What possible reasons have they created to make others want them gone? I’ll do this tribe-by-tribe. Uli has the most members left, so I’ll tackle them first.

Uli Tribe

Nate has earned trust from Savannah, Rizo and Jawan. It’s unclear if Sage still trusts him. Nate might have earned trust from Kristina by being the first to comfort her when she almost passed out, and from Sophie S. by being calm under pressure on the hanging maze in last week’s challenge. I don’t think he has annoyed anyone. He snapped at Rizo during a challenge, but Rizo doesn’t appear to be bothered by that. MC was bothered a bit when he wouldn’t stop talking during their Journey sandbag challenge. I don’t think Nate has created any reasons to want him gone, but Savannah may have subtly positioned him as a “leader.” He was briefly targeted simply by being in the minority after a swap.

Rizo is trusted by Nate, Savannah, Jawan and maybe a little less by Sage and Sophi B. MC gave him some valuable info but didn’t reveal she has the Hina Beware advantage. She doesn’t trust him completely. The only reason to want Rizo gone is the fact that everyone knows he has an Idol, which is 100% his own fault.

Jawan seems to only be trusted by Sage and Steven. All his original Uli tribemates were ready to cut him loose first. He has clearly annoyed Savannah by using her bag and water bottle, but it’s not clear if anyone else is annoyed by him. Jawan created a reason for others to want him gone by starting the game doing extended solo Idol hunts.

Savannah has earned the most trust, being valued by Rizo, Nate, Jawan, Sage, and Sophi B. She has gotten along with MC, but it's unclear what their trust level is. Savannah doesn’t appear to have annoyed anyone. While she has done well in challenges, she hasn’t stood out in any way. Nate may have tried to position her as a “leader,” but we haven’t seen anyone identifying her as such yet. Sage was an outsider on original Hina and didn’t initially do much to get close to anyone after the first swap. But she bonded with Steven, MC, Sophie S., Alex and MC over their dislike/distrust of Shannon. She earned more trust from Steven and Jawan when they voted Shannon out. Alex may also trust her. If Sage has annoyed anyone, we haven’t seen them mentioning it yet. The only reasons to want Sage gone are 1) Most know she doesn’t have an Idol and 2) she’s not very connected to anyone.

Hina tribe

Kristina is trusted by Steven, and Sophie S., and a little less trusted by MC, Nate and Alex. While she was in an early alliance with MC and Steven, those 2 didn’t trust her enough to tell her about MC’s Beware Advantage. Kristina really annoyed Sophie S. by suggesting she be the decoy vote if they went to Tribal Council. The only reason to want Kristina gone would be because most know she doesn’t have an Idol.

MC has earned the most trust. She’s closest to Steven, who is the only one who knows about her Beware Advantage. But she also tipped Sophie S. off to the fact that her tribemates had her on the bottom. Sophie S. probably trusts her too. The only reason for others to want MC gone is because she’s done very well in challenges so far but let me be clear. I haven’t seen anyone calling MC a challenge beast yet. MC doesn’t appear to have annoyed anyone. She’s been very low key and subtle about her strategy.

Sophie S. has complained about being on the bottom all game, which means she hasn’t earned trust very well at all. But MC did tip her off to her bottom status, and Kristina coordinated several “Hina Hina” chants with her, so I guess Kristina trusts her. Nobody has complained about Sophie S. yet, but that could change if Savannah finds out Sophie inspired the chanting. I don’t know that Sophie S. has annoyed anyone, but there’s SOME reason she’s been on the bottom.

Steven has done the best on Hina so far. He’s trusted by MC, Kristina, Alex, Sage, and Jawan. He doesn’t appear to have annoyed anyone. And aside from being the lone Hina member after a swap, he hasn’t created any reasons to want him gone.

Kele tribe

Alex is trusted by Sophi B. (a little). They voted together three times in a row but she also tried to sneak his Idol away from him when he had the Beware Advantage, so she doesn’t trust him completely. He also annoyed her a little in his bromance with Jake. Sophie S., Kristina and MC spent time on the same tribe with Alex, but they never had to vote so the level of trust here is unclear. Alex has done well in challenges (especially in spotlight roles) but we haven’t seen anyone calling him a beast yet. Aside from that, he hasn’t created any reasons to want him gone.

Sophie B. has done a better job of earning trust. She’s got trust with Alex, Nate, Rizo, Savannah and Jawan. It’s unclear if MC trusts her. Sophi B. doesn’t appear to have annoyed anyone and hasn’t created any reasons for anyone to want her gone yet.

Entering this merge, there are many options. I’m reasonably sure Nate, Rizo and Savannah will stick together, and will still have Sophi B. on their side. But Sophi B. knows she’s #4 in that group. She could be lured away by Alex if she thinks her chances would be better in an alliance with Sophie S., Steven, Jawan, MC and Sage. Steven and MC figure to reconnect, but they need to lure others to their side. They’ve got a decent chance of doing this with Sage, Alex and Kristina. This game could shift on how three floaters play it – Alex, Sage and Jawan and to a lesser degree Sophie S. Those 4 have established they can have strategic conversations with multiple original Uli and Hina members. If they come together, they can run the game similar to how Kenzie, Charlie, Ben and Liz did in S46.

I only have one observation from my rewatch, and it didn’t actually come from the rewatch. Shannon said she got advice from Boston Rob on how to play Survivor. She went out one spot before the Jury began. That’s exactly where Boston Rob went out in his rookie season. And much like Shannon, Boston Rob shot himself in the foot by playing too aggressively. They both created the reason for their early exits. This doesn’t bode well for Shannon should she return to play again. She seems less aware of her mistakes than Boston Rob was of his. Rob repeated his mistakes 3 times before finally getting a Producer-aided win.

But enough of players who are gone. How are the remaining players gonna handle the merge? Will they continue the New Era trend of booting the player least likely to have an Idol? If Rizo knows of this trend, would he use his Idol to save Nate or Savannah? Will MC flip the game on its head with a clever Idol play of her own? How many different ways will Sage contort her face to crack me up? How many more times will Probst talk about how hot it is in Fiji? Let’s find out.

And away we go…

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Right off the bat we’re reminded of how much Uli hated the “Hina, Hina” chants.

Steven talks Sage and Jawan into being double agents. That’s what Devon did to Ben in S35: HHH. It blew up Ben’s spot. He was surrounded by enemies until Idols started finding him ... and the fire challenge was sprung on those trying to vote him out. Will Idols start finding Steven too?

The tribes are moving to the Kele camp? Wasn’t that the worst of the three camps? I was expecting them to move to Hina camp.

Steven wants to hide when the other players arrive. That’s the WORST thing he could do. Why not just hire a skywriter to write “We’ve got a new alliance?”

I usually get some insight into tribe dynamics by seeing who goes to hug whom first at the merge. But with three players hiding, that won’t happen this season. I think this is a Survivor first. Just the same, Savannah went straight to Sophie S., Sophi B. went to Alex, and Nate went to Savannah.

Yeah, not going to greet the other players was a bad move. It just screams “Don’t trust me.” It doesn’t matter what their cover story is.

Jawan and Sage are doing all of the talking but Steven is keeping his mouth shut. This is a great opportunity for Steven to sell both of them out later. But it looks like people are buying it.

Wow, Savannah is treating Sage just like Shannon was. She’s laying it on a little thick. And Sage sees right through it. Sage has a Sandra-level BS meter, but she doesn’t take action the way Sandra did.

Savannah starts the mad dash for keys, and Jawan is acting like Bruce in S45 taking his time finding money tubes for the Auction. But at least Jawan found a key. Bruce got shut out.

Sage gets the Challenge Advantage. The Challenge Advantage holders haven’t had the greatest long-term luck. Abi-Maria (S25: Philippines), Cochran (S26: Caramoan), Keith Nale (S29: San Juan del Sur), Aubry (S38: Edge of Extinction), Genevieve (S47), and Sai (S48) all had Challenge Advantages after the merge. Only Cochran went on to win the game.

Rizo targets Sophie S., but doesn’t say why. Jawan wants to blow up original Uli but didn’t say why. Sophi B. correctly sees she and Alex are swing votes in the middle. I think they should ride both sides and share as much information as possible. They don’t have to commit to either side just yet.

Come on, you all had the same thought I had. Savannah’s is gonna miss the chicken and hit Alex when she swings that machete.

Sage tips Sophie S. off about the Uli plan to target her. This reminded me of how Will got tipped off and was inspired to win Immunity in S33: Millennials vs. Gen X. Then Sage targets Savannah in part because she was annoying. Will anybody tip off Savannah? This could easily backfire on Sage just like things backfired on Shannon.

Damn, a two-tribe Immunity Challenge has been set up. This probably means half the players plus whoever has to sit out could have Immunity. That sucks.

Why are Jawan and Rizo so excited that the buffs are black?

I want to see a schoolyard pick. That does as much to reveal alliances and pecking orders as the classic “Chop 3 Ropes” challenge.

Probst tells them they could be on Survivor 50. Great, now everyone will really be mugging for the camera, and perhaps overplaying.

Sage’s advantage is she doesn’t have to run the challenge? That’s pretty good. She doesn’t even have to pick which team she thinks will win. That’s even better.

Sophie S. and Kristina were captains? It sure would have been nice to see who got picked first and last. Was MC picked before any of the men? I might have picked her first overall.

It’s good that there’s no mud pit in this challenge this time around. That mud makes it that much harder to climb up that giant ball. I’ve never had fun watching that.

Nate & Sophie S. vs Jawan & Kristina on the puzzle. I think Nate has the edge here.

Ok it’s good that only one person will have Immunity. This is an improvement over recent seasons.

Probst: “Wow, they win it by a second and a half!” Really? Team blue had two pieces out of place. There’s no way they were switching them in a second and a half.

As Sophi B. grimaces in pain, we’re reminded that the worst part of this challenge is the heat on the beam tearing through their bare feet when they move to a new section. Everyone got to wear their shoes in the first half. Producers want that barefoot pain. You know, ‘cause it’s really hot in Fiji.

I was ready to say women usually have an advantage in balance challenges like this one, then Sophi B. dropped out. But then Sophie S. won it.

This vote is wide open. There are too many uncommitted wild cards to see an obvious target. If I’m Uli, I probably go for Kristina. If I’m Hina, I go for Savannah. But I don’t know who I’d go for if I was Alex.

Is it just me, or is the merge feast more fun when everyone gets to eat and try to hide their conversations?

Savannah stumbles on MC’s search (or was she following MC)? Savannah tries to play it cool, but MC beats her to the key. Savannah is identifying herself as a way too aggressive player. Is Savannah talking her way out of this game? Is she becoming a villain? She’s sure to tell everyone MC has an Idol now. Does this mean Sophie B. is gonna take it with her Knowledge is Power?

I don’t know that MC could have hidden her search from Savannah, but she didn’t have to tell Savannah what she was looking for. She could have said she was looking for a purple rock, a tree with a smile. She even could have tried what Gary Hogeboom did in S11 Guatemala and tell Savannah something was hidden up in the trees. Anything but a key could have worked.

Savannah hovering over MC reminded me of how Andrea hovered over Malcom’s Idol hunt in S26: Caramoan.

Here’s what MC’s Idol looks like, just in case it returns later on.

Sophie S. knows Rizo could use his Idol on himself or Svannah, so she targets Nate because she doesn’t think Nate will get the Idol. The New Era trend continues. Sage is pushing hard to boot Savannah. Could this backfire on her?

Sure enough Savannah clues Sophi B. in about MC’s Idol.

The Uli group agrees on Steven because he doesn’t have an Idol. And Sophi B. made the suggestion.

Rizo to Jawan: “If I play my Idol, it goes back in the jungle.” Congrats Rizo, you just created a reason for people to try and blindside you.

The target keeps shifting, and I love it. My favorite episode of Survivor is the Edgardo boot from S14: Fiji because the target kept moving too. This one isn’t quite as good. It was a little slow in the middle. But a great Tribal Council could lift it up.

Maybe Sophi B. takes MC’s Idol and plays it for Savannah, which prompts Rizo to play his Idol. The chaos that followed would be epic.

Jawan: “Make sure your name isn’t the first one on the kill list.” In horror movies, that’s usually a Black person. That’s bad news for MC ... and Nate.

Rizo: “Here’s my Idol. I’m gonna play it.” I wonder who believes him?

Hmm ... Sophi B. didn’t take MC’s Idol before the voting. Why not?

Rizo should check everyone’s faces when Probst asks for Idols like Rachel did in S47. But MC bails him out by playing hers. Rizo is a fool for holding onto his now. But he doesn’t play it. Will luck be on his side?

Wow, Nate is gone. Did Sophie S. actually push this vote through? Did I underestimate her social game?

That sucks for Nate. He had good instincts for the game and was playing well.

I guess I should give props to Savannah. By following MC and discovering her Idol, she nudged MC into playing it. Now it could return. I thought Savannah was too aggressive, but it might work out in her favor if she finds the rehidden Idol. That would make her and Rizo pretty powerful. And of course, Sophi B. could take either Idol.

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Recap:

Losing Nate bums me out because I love watching people who have a natural talent for Survivor. Nate was good at earning trust and making adjustments on the fly. I can’t think of anything he did wrong that put a target on his back aside from not having a better BS meter with Sage and Jawan. There wasn’t much he could do here, outside of asking Rizo for his Idol, which is always a longshot.

I think Alex made the right decision, but I’m not as sure about Jawan and Sage. If they had reduced another Hina number it might have increased the odds they could rise to the top of an alliance with the remaining Hina. Why do either of them think they’ll rise above the four remaining Hina? Sophie S. was on the bottom. Letting her go may not have ruffled many feathers. It’d be like the Reba 4 cutting J. Maya and Sifu loose in S45.

So, what happens next? Does Savannah get up at 4 a.m. and find MC’s Idol? Will she complain about how dark it is and suddenly find the Idol at knee height ... when her shadow from the camera light moves and she spots it? Will MC follow her? Will we get a cage match between them instead of just a teaser? (My money is on MC).

What do you think of everyone’s decisions? Did Jawan and Sage make a good short-term move, that will turn into a horrible long-term decision? Will everyone start taking bigger risks to get on S50? What should Sophi B. do? Let me know in the comments.