By the time you read this, the S49 finale will have aired, and we’ll all know who ended up winning the season. But as I start writing this intro, I don’t even know who goes out in 6th place. Episode 12 hasn’t aired yet.

I have enjoyed this season primarily because of the strength of the cast. Rizo has made Tribal Councils fun. Sophi B. has proven to be a solid strategist (I’m a strategy nerd). Sage just makes me laugh by being herself. Jawan was entertaining too. I even got the satisfaction of seeing overconfident players like Shannon and Sophie S. get their comeuppance, which is a personal favorite of mine. I was also surprised to see how many decisions were based on emotion as opposed to strategy. At different points, Sage, Jawan, Savannah, and Steven all said their votes were in part motivated by a desire for revenge.

But I wasn’t able to enjoy the season as much as I normally would because it entirely existed under the shadow of Season 50. Survivor revealed the S50 cast before we knew who was playing in S49. They added that two players from S49 would be joining the S50 cast. If you don’t want to be spoiled about S50, skip ahead to “And away we go…” for my finale recap.

Not long after 22 of the 24 S50 cast members were announced, tons of spoiler information started circulating. I managed to avoid most of it, but the most common (and most believable) was the news that Rizo and Savannah would be the two S49 players returning for S50. To a large degree, that clouded my ability to enjoy S49 because there just weren’t as many surprises. For example, knowing Rizo and Savannah would be returning, it was a very safe bet that they’d both make it to the merge. They were both likely to make deep runs too. I penciled them in for at least final 7. So, because I figured those two would go deep, I also knew there was little to no chance their original Uli tribemates Nate, Jawan, Shannon and Sage would do as well as Savannah and Rizo. I was never wondering if those 4 would get voted out, I was wondering when it would happen.

After the first swap, it was fairly easy to predict either Matt or Jason would leave if their new tribe lost because they were outnumbered by original Uli. Same goes with the other tribe. I knew either Shannon or Sage was a goner simply because they were original Uli and were unlikely to outlast Rizo and Savannah. This was an even bigger factor at the merge. Since Rizo had an Idol, and Savannah hadn’t done anything “flashy” enough to merit a return visit yet, it was easy to see Nate’s boot coming. And even though Jawan and Sage’s defection spelled Nate’s doom, I also knew those two wouldn’t last long as a duo because Savannah and Rizo were destined to outlast them.

So, as we entered the final 6, I was pleasantly surprised to see Sage was still in the game, Just the same, knowing Savannah and Rizo were in a decent position, I wasn’t ever excited about Sage’s chances. Steven has played a good game, but since I know he’s not returning for S50, I knew if he didn’t blow the field away with his Block A Vote, he probably wasn’t gonna win. Kristina’s position was even more perilous as the Jury has already seen her waste an Idol. That leaves Sophi B. I’ve liked her game all season long. She’s got an excellent social game, and her strategic instincts had been spot on (until she decided not to take Rizo’s Idol). She was also sharp enough to keep her KIP Advantage a secret (until last week of course). Then Probst mentioned the women’s Individual Immunity record is within Savannah’s reach. She can tie it with one win and set a new record with two more wins. Her strategy and social game haven’t been mind-blowing, but five Immunity wins easily could be enough for her to bump someone (Jerri) out of the S50 cast at the last minute. Jerri was NOT quiet about being bumped at the 11th hour. Her displeasure made Savannah’s inclusion in S50 even more believable.

But the question remained: Can anyone beat two players who immediately got invited back to play again? Then again, nobody who has played in back-to-back seasons has won either season. That was the saving grace for me. Could the fact that Savannah and Rizo both return for S50 actually mean neither of them will win this season? At least that’s the historical precedent. There was still a little mystery about this season’s winner entering the finale.

So, Sophi B., Sage, and Kristina, I’m saying you’ve got a chance. Possibly a better chance than most would think ... even though another spoiler came from Stephenie LaGrossa who allegedly leaked a win for Savannah. Rizo still has his Idol, and has a free pass to the final 4, but he can still be taken out in the fire challenge. This of course, means they all need to take Savannah out at final 5. Rizo has proven he’s not willing to play his Idol for anybody else. So, if Savannah doesn’t win final 5 Immunity, it’s a no-brainer to take her out, even for Sophi B. But Savannah’s toughest competition for Immunity (Steven and Sophie S.) are already on the jury. Who can beat Savannah? All three of Savannah’s wins have come in purely physical endurance challenges. If either of the last two challenges includes a puzzle, Savannah’s chances are weaker. Sophi B. and Sage have finished in the middle of the pack in both puzzle challenges (won by Sophie S.). Rizo and Kristina haven’t come close to a win in any Immunity Challenge yet (but Rizo might have done some sandbagging). Savannah has to be the Immunity Challenge favorite, but her edge isn’t overwhelming. After all, in recent seasons, Romeo (S42), Heidi (S44), and Ben (S46) all won Final 4 Immunity after not winning any previous Immunity challenges. I see no reason why Kristina, Sophi B. or Sage can’t pull off a similar shocker.

Will Rizo’s heroics seal a win, or backfire because nobody cares for his showboating? Can Savannah tie or break an Immunity record? Can Sage, Sophi B. and Kristina work together and remove Rizo and Savannah? Let’s find out.

And away we go…

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Hmm .... This Probst looks like he’s at CBS studios in L.A. Yeah, yeah, hype, hype, preview for Survivor 50 is coming. Let’s get to the game.

In a way, I’d like to skip ahead to the final 4. It’s just too easy to see that Sage is leaving at final 5.

Rizo: “I’m one Immunity away from the finals.” That’s one more than you’ve won so far.

Sophi B.: “I can do whatever I want at this next Tribal Council.” Now it sounds like Sophi is going home because Sage is easier to beat in the finals. I don’t think anybody is getting rid of Kristina at final 5.

A boat at final 5? Sounds like an Advantage for the challenge is coming.

Hey look, the puzzle is just like the one Rizo solved on his day 1 Journey against Alex.

Savannah, you moron! Destroy your puzzle!

The Advantage is up in the tree. This reminds me of one of the Idols Ben “found” in HHH. The camera followed Ben as he walked through the jungle, then suddenly stopped when it was under the Idol. An oblivious Ben kept walking. The next shot we see is the Idol up in a tree, then panning down to Ben walking back to the camera and looking up. At the time I yelled “The cameraman is telling Ben where to look! He had to notice they stopped following him!”

I’m happy Sophi B. found the Advantage, but she still has to win Immunity. Several have failed to win Immunity even when armed with an Advantage. In S42, Mike Turner beat Lindsay for Immunity after Lindsay had the Advantage. I also remember Keith couldn’t pull out the win in S29: San Juan del Sur.

Another massive obstacle course. Sophi B.’s Advantage could be something as weak as having five knots to untie instead of six, or as significant as skipping the mud pit.

Sophi’s Advantage is somewhere in the middle. She still has to do all the toughest parts of the challenge.

Ahh, Rizo is left-handed. That’s why he put his left foot on the plank last week.

Wow, this one was a blowout for Savannah. Savannah hadn’t been tested on a puzzle yet. She proved she’s up to the challenge (pun intended).

Sage explains why she’s not voting for Savannah. But Savannah does the right thing and takes Sage with her to eat steak. That’s a decent way of sending her out of the game.

Kristina tells Rizo she wants to go against Savannah at fire. That’s a bad move for Kristina, but an even worse move for Rizo. Why put Kristina in the fire contest?

And that’s exactly what Rizo says to Sophi B. He knows Savannah is his toughest competition.

Savannah: “I genuinely respect Sage as a competitor.” I call BS. You want Sage’s jury vote.

Even though Sage says she’s friends with Savannah in confessional, I still don’t think she’ll vote for Savannah.

Sage and Savannah think Kristina is a fire making master. It would have been nice to see that during the season.

Rizo and Savannah disagree on who to vote out. The solution is easy. Rizo and Sophi B. should ask Kristina to vote for Sage.

Sophi B.: “The more Sage talks to me, the more strategic I think she is.” Hindsight is 20/20, but this was the time for Sage to sandbag her strategic instincts.

I still think Sage is leaving. Fire or no fire, Kristina is the zero vote finalist here. It really should be a no-brainer. Kristina has folded under stress in every challenge. There’s little reason to think the fire challenge will be any different.

Steven looks pissed off on the Jury. David looked pissed off last season too, but he was acting. Steven already blew his cover by smiling on his way out.

Gloating Savannah is already making her final 3 speech. “I’m so focused on what I came here for, and that’s to be the Sole Survivor.”

Sage to Probst: “Oh, I’m not done yet.” I LOVED that! Sage hasn’t played the best game, but she’s been real even when she’s been honest about lying.

I wonder why nobody ever targeted Sophi B.? Did she fall on her face that badly? She still has friends on the Jury.

I think Sophi B. is deciding this vote. Whoever she told Rizo she wants out is leaving.

Rizo probably doesn’t have to play his Idol, but he shouldn’t mock the others like Russell Hantz by saying, “I’m keeping this as a souvenir.”

Rizo plays his Idol, which was the smarter move.

Kristina is gone, and the Jurors don’t look impressed. At least it wasn’t predictable. I’m wondering if this decision was as bad as Hannah insisting on Sunday leaving at S33: Millennials vs. Gen X final 7, or Xander putting Heather in the fire contest in S41.

Sage winks at Jawan, who doesn’t wink back. Is he not giving Sage credit here? Does he realize booting Kristina was the wrong move? Man, I wish they’d bring the Ponderosa videos back. Those videos usually answered questions like these.

Wow, we go straight to the Immunity Challenge. No confessionals with Rizo or Sophi B. second guessing themselves?

I’ll admit it, a big part of me is hoping Sophi B. or Sage wins this and put Savannah and Rizo in the fire challenge.

This looks like an all-new challenge. Good job Production team.

Last time they did the digging part of this challenge, the smart move was to dig from the side. This time everyone dug from the middle. I wonder if Producers eliminated that option this time?

Savannah gets another huge lead and starts on the table maze first. Rizo and Sage aren’t close. But Sophi B. is making a nice comeback.

Sophi B. pulls it out! Just like Romeo, Heidi, and Ben!

She’s so excited, she’s already giving her final 3 speech. If she’d taken Rizo’s Idol she could have guaranteed Savannah would leave by protecting Sage or Kristina with it.

This is a no-brainer for Sophi B. Put Savannah and Rizo into the fire challenge. She has no shot at winning if she doesn’t put Savannah in. How much better would her chances have been if Kristina was there instead of Sage? Even if Kristina took Savannah out at fire, she still wasn’t gonna win the game.

Sophi B.: “I haven’t seen Savannah, Rizo or Sage make fire yet.” That’s a huge flaw. If I’m playing, I’m sizing up the fire makers all season long. There’s no excuse for missing this very important detail.

Savannah: “I’m disappointed in Sophi B. ... It’s annoying. I thought we had each other’s backs. It feels like I’m getting screwed over. Is this the real Sophi B.?” It sounds to me like you’re acting entitled. Sophi B. has no obligation to take you to the finals any more than you had no obligation to take her if you had won. You made it pretty clear to her that Rizo was your #1. If Sophi puts you in, it’s most likely because you didn’t create a good enough reason for her not to. This is a huge flaw in Savannah’s social game.

Do the right thing, Sophi. Survivor is not about loyalty. Play in your best interests. Put Savannah and Rizo in.

The jurors look impressed with Sophi B.’s Immunity win. I still don’t think it’s enough to overcome her mistake with the Knowledge Is Power Advantage. If I’m on the Jury, I’m thinking “You blew the chance to take both Rizo and Savannah out. You had an easy win against Sage and Kristina.”

It’s no coincidence that Probst mentioned Chrissy Hofbeck and Rick Devens here. He already knows they’re both returning for S50. Way to look past this season again. It’s funny how Probst did NOT mention how Chris Underwood only put himself in the fire challenge against Devens because that season’s Jurors told him they wouldn’t vote for him to win if he didn’t take Devens out himself.

Sophi B. makes the right call and puts Savannah and Rizo into the fire contest. Rizo didn’t play his Idol for you, and Savannah would more likely have taken Rizo to the finals with her.

Savannah takes the blue station closest to the Jury, and Rizo takes yellow, closest to Probst. Entering this season (unofficial results) Yellow is 4-1 and blue is 4-2.

This one was a blowout. Props to Savannah for dominating so many challenges. Savannah just won the game. Jurors have been saying all season how Savannah was the frontrunner. What can Sophi B. or Sage say to detract from Savannah’s game?

Rizo: “If Jeff Probst gives me one chance, I promise I’ll make a name for myself.” That might have sealed his invitation for Survivor 50.

Sophie S. is in full face-palm mode when Rizo asks Probst to call him “Rizgod.” Yeah, I think these jurors never took Rizo seriously.

My gut is telling me Savannah’s challenge wins are what gets her the million. Rizo did the bulk of the strategizing for her. He was Stephen to Savannah’s J.T. But unlike J.T., Savannah’s social game was average at best. She alienated Sage, Kristina, MC, and possibly Jawan. Sage has a decent shot at Jawan and Steven’s votes on relationship alone. Will Sophi B. be the zero-vote finalist? That would suck because except for her brain fart last week, she played a solid game. Maybe she gets Kristina’s vote because Kristina just doesn’t like Savannah.

Ok, somebody told Sage it has been 20 seasons since the last all-female final 3. I don’t believe for a second she knew that.

Think about it. Of all the confessionals we heard this season, there were only three players people said would win it if they got to the end: Savannah, Steven and Jawan. Sophie S. was the only one who said that about Jawan. Nobody was shown saying it about Rizo, Kristina, Sophi B. or anyone else on the Jury. Was Rizo ever a contender?

Shocker! Shots of Savannah and Sage saying “Rizo will be back” is included in the final edit. Maybe Rizo wasn’t a contender for this season because most believed he was mugging for the camera to get invited back much like Phillip did in S22: Redemption Island.

Sage thinks revealing her military background will impress the Jury. I don’t. They care about how you played this game. Sage’s revelation might go over as well as Sherri “revealing” she was rich in S26: Caramoan.

Entering Final Tribal Council, I’m reasonably sure Jawan is voting for Sage out of friendship, Kristina is voting for Sophi B. out of dislike for Savannah, and Rizo, Nate and Sophie S are voting for Savannah. Rizo out of friendship, Nate for strategy, and Sophie for challenge wins. I could easily be wrong about the reasons, but that’s what my gut is telling me.

Sophi B. opens with “Rizo and Savannah adopted me.” Bad opening statement. You might as well have said “They carried me.”

Savannah: “My wins offered protection for my trio.” That was a much stronger statement.

Sage opens with her “revelation.” Where does she go from there?

Sophi B.’s personal story is touching, but I don’t think it will convince anyone she played the best game.

Kristina: “It seems like you didn’t care to get to know anyone.” Yeah, Savannah’s not getting Kristina’s vote. Kristina was out to embarrass Savannah, and that’s her right to do so.

MC wants to know who was influencing the voting the most. That’s probably what my criteria would be. Steven doesn’t look like he cares for Sage’s answer.

Savannah takes credit for booting Kristina, and Sophi B. steps in and says, no, that was my call.

Steven is NOT impressed with Sage’s answer to voting out her majority alliance. She’s not getting his vote.

Sophi B.: “Rizo and Savannah were at the bottom.” BAD answer. You just endorsed Savannah for the win.

Sage tries to own the boot for Sophie S. but the Jury looks unimpressed.

Savannah: “I won Immunity necklaces because I was such a freaking threat.” I think it was less impressive because you pissed off too many people. THAT’s why you HAD to win Immunity. Po-TAY-to, po-TAH-to.”

All three finalists have a name that starts with the letter S. How many times will we see someone writing down an “S?”

Savannah wins it (not a surprise). I glad everyone got at least one vote. I didn’t think any of them played badly enough to get zero votes.

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Recap

5-foot tall Savannah revives the New Era tradition of diminutive women taking the crown. Only Gabler and Kyle have broken that trend (dammit, Gabler!). Yam Yam isn’t very tall either.

I don’t think Sophi had a strong chance entering Final Tribal Council, but her performance under Jury questioning was pretty bad. Yeah, not taking Rizo’s Idol was a fatal blow. There was no recovering from that. But she did more to help Savannah win than she did to help herself.

Sage’s chances weren’t good either, and I don’t think her Final Tribal Strategy was very strong. She did convince people she wasn’t an emotional player, but she simultaneously convinced them her strategy did more damage to her game than good. She identified the biggest threat, then refused to remove her over and over. She passed up 3 chances to vote for Savannah. That probably ended up being fatal too.

This was a strange season. Evaluating the strategy was difficult. Rizo was the best strategist but probably killed his credibility with his social game. Nobody took him seriously. Savannah was the best challenge performer but thought strategy was her strength. Sage’s strategy of concealing her strategic acumen was smart, but enhancing her emotional side probably sapped her credibility too.

Savannah is an average to below average winner. Her physical game was strong, but her social and strategic games were not. I’m thinking I’ll rank her right around the Erika to Yam Yam range. She did a little too much damage with her social game for me to consider it to be elite.

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After show Review

It looks like Jeff Pitman got his wish. These players have done a decent amount of eating and drinking before the questioning began. Jawan already said, “This should be my last glass of champagne.” I wonder if the delay was because Probst was locking up Savannah and Rizo for S50?

Kristina says her vote for Sophi B. was out of respect for playing the game she wanted to play herself. That sounds nice and might be why she chose Sophi B. over Sage, but there was no way she was ever gonna vote for Savannah.

Sophie S. confirmed her vote for Savannah was primarily for her timely challenge wins.

The players are booing Rizo as he brags about holding his Idol for nine Tribal Councils. I don’t think he had a strong chance of winning either. They didn’t care for the showboating with no payoff.

Jawan is right. The reputation for Survivor pizza has never been good.

I wonder if Rizo and Savannah learned of the fan voting results at the reunion? If so, that gives them an edge on the other S50 players.

Like I said in the intro, I liked this season but realize how much more I could have enjoyed it of CBS/Survivor didn’t announce the S50 cast so early. I’m not sure where I’ll rank it yet, but I doubt it will end up in the top half.

What are your thoughts? Did Savannah ride Immunity wins to the million? Did she hide behind the threat of Rizo’s Idol or both? What do you think Rizo’s chances were? Was booting Kristina a good or bad move? How do you think Rizo and Savannah will do in Survivor 50? Let me know in the comments.