Welcome back to another season of Screaming at the Screen – the column in which I share my thoughts and observations on the fly as I’m watching each episode of Survivor. Like most of you, I’m obsessed with Survivor and have watched (and rewatched) every episode since season one in Borneo. I’ve even been known to transcribe episodes word-for-word to make sure I get my information correct when I tell the players why they’re doing something the wrong way ... even though I’ve never played the game myself.

Normally when I write these preview columns, I’m 100% spoiler free. I know next to nothing about the cast members (unless there are famous athletes or celebrities playing) and form my impressions purely on their pregame interviews. But this season won’t be like that. As many of you know, the cast for Survivor 50 has been announced and we know two members of the S49 cast were chosen to play with 22 other returning players in S50. There has been a ton of speculation as to who these two players are. I happen to believe that speculation, and I’m writing this column with the assumption that those two people play well enough (or loudly enough) to at least make it to the merge in this season.

I think that’s a reasonable conclusion considering that out of the 157 people who’ve played Survivor more than once, only 12 of them failed to make it to the merge in their rookie season (Shii-Ann, Bobby Jon, Michael Skupin, Russell Swan, Francesca, Monica Culpepper, Colton, Kelley Wentworth, Kimmi, Brad Culpepper, Caleb Reynolds, and Michaela). Seven of those 12 returned in seasons themed around unique situations (Blood vs Water, or medevaced returnees in Philippines). Shii-Ann made it into All-Stars because a few others turned it down or weren’t available. Kimmi was voted in by fans and Francesca was most likely chosen so she could fight with Phillip in Caramoan. An argument can be made that only Bobby Jon and Michaela returned purely because of the strong impression their gameplay made as rookies. I’m thinking the two S49 returning players will fit into that category.

I’ll do my best not to spoil any information in this column, but it will be hard. How do I preview someone I’m reasonably sure will make the merge without giving something away? And If I say I don’t think another player will make the merge, that pretty much tells you that person isn’t coming back for S50, right?

We’ve also come to find out that two players (Jason and Michelle aka “MC”) were alternates for this season when they left for Fiji and BOTH got added to the cast when two others broke the rules by talking to other players. In the New Era, alternates have had different degrees of success. Geo failed to make the merge in S43, but last season, Shauhin reached the final 5 after being an alternate for S47. Austin made it to the finals in S45 as an alternate, and of course, S46 alternate Rachel ended up winning S47. This season, Jason and MC found out they’d be playing only 12 hours before the game began. On top of that, two more players, Sage (S47) and Sophie S. (S48) were alternates too. I think we’ve seen that alternates tend to play with more urgency than those who get on the plane with more security (or time to overthink things). I’ll go tribe by tribe with each player, then give a forecast for each tribe.

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Hina Tribe (Yellow)

This tribe appears to be right in the middle physically. Their early fate may depend on how well they can work together in challenges. If they gel like Siga did in S46, they should be fine.

Jason Treul

32-Year-old Jason is currently a Law Clerk but was also a Software Engineer. He learned about Survivor after making a gaming connection with Kenny Hoang. Then later, he was surprised to see Kenny playing in S17: Gabon. Kenny and Jason actually share a birthday too. Jason says he was drawn towards engineering “because math and physics are cool.” Yeah, Jason is a Survivor nerd in the mold of Carson, Evvie, Liz and Christian. That puts him right about in the middle of the pack, since we’ve seen nerdy types win the game and leave early. Jason is proud of the fact that he was able to help pay for his parents’ expenses before turning 30. Then he figured out how to go to Law School while his job at Google paid for it. Yeah, he’s resourceful. If things go as he’s planning, he’ll pass the Bar exam and get his Survivor million dollar check in the same month.

Jason was an avid Survivor viewer from S17: Gabon through S20: Heroes vs Villains, then dropped off when he went to college. He picked it up again when Jeff Probst spoke at his Google offices promoting S40: Winners at War. He knows the game but might have some gaps when it comes to recalling Survivor history. Jason’s girlfriend had been applying for a while, and he decided to apply after she got him watching again. Jason says he wants to play like Rachel, saying “there’s a beautiful subtlety to the way she played.” She’s a great role model to emulate, and like Jason, Rachel was an alternate. She was great at earning trust quickly and was an excellent liar too. Jason says, “I want them to think I’m a huge Poindexter. I believe showing weakness is a strength.” I agree with him. People rarely want to remove someone they think they can outplay. Rachel did an excellent job of playing dead when she was most vulnerable. Jason believes his small stature will help him be underestimated. I also agree with that ... as long as he doesn’t stumble in the early challenges. He’s by far the smallest and youngest male on his tribe. I doubt he’ll be seen as a physical threat, but it also means he should prioritize carrying his weight around camp.

He got good vibes from MC, saying, “she just radiates kindness.” He pegged Sophie S. as “very spunky.” Both of them are on his starting tribe, so look for him to approach one or both of those women. He’s wary of Jake because “his presence is so big, I don’t know that he can play a small game like I want to.” He’s also got his eye on Rizo who was reading a book called “How Champions Communicate,” that he was quick to hide when Jason spotted it. Jason says, “The farther into the game you go, the less of a risk the Journeys become,” so he probably won’t be volunteering to go early. He says, “Advantages are the way to get yourself out of a pickle,” so if he’s in a secure position, he probably won’t grab a Beware Advantage. But Jason also says, “Everybody has to play from the bottom at some point, so you need to know how to wriggle.” If Jason ends up on the Jury, he’ll vote for “whoever is most aware of their own story,” citing how Cassidy wasn’t as aware of her position in the game as Gabler was. As much disdain as I have for Gabler’s win, Jason is right about that.

Kristina Mills

When I saw Kristina’s face at the end of last season’s finale, I immediately thought of Taj Johnson-George who finished 4th in S18: Tocantins. They look very much alike, but their personalities are very different. Kristina is a career counselor for college students. That job might help her relate to some of the younger players this season. But she was originally a Corporate Engineer. She says she’s a people person, and that’s why she moved out of the corporate world. It makes sense that she’d be attracted to the challenge of Survivor. The first season she watched was S34: Game Changers, but Kristina was inspired to apply by watching Survivor 45, specifically Kaleb’s enthusiasm and Emily’s dramatic turnaround. They helped Kristina get over the loss of her mother, coupled with post-partum depression. Kristina wants to be the one who lifts the tribe up when times get tough. But she compares herself to Cirie (who also played the first time at age 35) and social nerd Carson from 44. Both are good role models to emulate. If her social game is half as good as Cirie and Carson’s, she should sail into the merge with plenty of options. She also identifies with S36: Ghost Island winner Wendell’s social game and ingenuity.

Kristina got good vibes from Jeremiah and Alex “I just sense they’re gonna be my ride or dies who’ll fight for me.” Too bad they’re not on her starting tribe. She sees Sophi B. (who is on her tribe) as “my little sister. I just want to protect her.” She got bad vibes from Jake and suspects he’s gonna be very pushy. Kristina will be aggressive about looking for Idols or Advantages because her sister threatened to kill her if she doesn’t. But if she finds something, “I just think people should keep their mouth shut about it.” Something tells me she’s too nice and will crack under pressure because she won’t want to lie about it. If she ends up on the Jury, Kristina intends on grilling the finalists on how well they’ve gotten to know the other players. She loved how Kelly Wiglesworth saved herself in S1: Borneo by winning a “Know Your Tribemates” trivia Immunity Challenge.

Kristina is a VERY nice and friendly person who brings a lot of enthusiasm into Survivor, but I don’t think she’s got the cutthroat attitude to do well. She doesn’t want anyone to feel betrayed by her and says it’s really hard for her to lie. I think that’s what will keep her from winning. If she can avoid the first few Tribal Councils, she could make a deep run because nobody will see her as threatening at all. But the biggest alarm for me came when she said she thinks Lill should have won S7: Pearl Islands instead of Sandra. Yeah, the “niceness’ factor is strong with this one. Too strong to win Survivor.

Matt Williams

At 52, Matt is the oldest member of the cast. He originally had a job in finance but got tired of the white-collar world and left that life to become an airport ramp agent so he could get travel perks. “I throw bags for a living, I’m a cheap bastard and I love to travel.” I have a cousin who does the same thing. He gets great travel discounts. Matt was not a huge TV watcher and got turned on to Survivor by his wife. They’d binge-watch seasons when they were bored, and he got hooked. He decided to apply after a friend said, “You’re always bitching about the moves they make, why don’t you apply and make your own moves?” Matt decided he was a doer and not a talker, so he applied. He identifies with Tyson because “He’s also from Utah, he’s a smartass with a quick wit, and has long hair. I enjoyed watching him play.” He also likes the way Christian played. He thinks he can talk someone out of a challenge the way Christian did with Alec in S37: David vs Goliath. Matt’s not planning on revealing his finance background but thinks it will eventually come up because nobody will believe he’s been a lifelong ramp agent. Matt is very affable and has a very positive attitude. It doesn’t appear he’ll create reasons to vote him off early, but I can see how people might get tired of him if he doesn’t carry his share of the workload. He thinks others will see him as “the funny, old fat guy.” I can see that for sure. He also believes others will be surprised at his physical strength, saying “Throwing bags around builds up your core pretty well.”

Matt knows and accepts that whoever his #1 partner is, at some point they’ll stab him in the back. He seems to have a good attitude about that. Matt got good vibes from several players who gave him head nods and other positive body language gestures but didn’t name anyone other than “the girl with pink hair” (Annie), saying “You know she doesn’t care about appearances. She’ll be fun to play with. I like people who aren’t afraid to be different.” He also sees Jake as the perfect meat shield. He wants to align with players who think they’re smarter than he is. That’s not a bad plan IF he knows when to start showing his intelligence. Otherwise, if he gets to the finals being underestimated, it may be too late to turn that impression around. That’s what happened to Eva last season and Charlie in S46.

Matt strikes me as a “there for the adventure” type of player (he even said as much) who won’t know how to position himself well enough to get a win. He fully intends on looking for Idols or Advantages but swears he won’t tell anyone if he finds one, unless it’s a last resort to save himself. He also wants to play like Kenzie in the way she made sure to be nice to everybody. He also says “I liked Russell. Sure, he was a villain, but he deserved to win the game.” He also loves the final 4 fire challenge and hopes it stays. He may change his mind if that’s how he goes out. Survivor likes to cast guys named Matt. There have been 6 of them, and only two (Elrod and Blankinship) made it to the merge. I think Mr. Williams is in for a similar pre-merge fate. Physically, he reminds me more of Tarzan from S24: One World. Tarzan made it to 5th place but firmly established himself as a goat from day 1. If Matt ends up on the Jury, he’ll vote for “whoever played the hardest.” He doesn’t care who wins challenges or was the nicest person.

Michelle 'MC' Chukwujekwu

Michelle (I’m gonna call her “MC”), is the other alternate who made it into the cast at the last minute. She’s a fitness trainer with a sales background. MC has been an athlete her whole life, playing basketball, tennis and running track. Except for Jake, the most players named MC as someone they’d like to work with. MC calls Survivor “the perfect blend of athleticism, sociology and mental strength.” I can agree with that. She says she relates most to Tiffany from S46. Tiffany played well, and will return in S50, but like several in that cast, she got blindsided while holding an Idol. She knew what moves to make but didn’t know when to make them. MC should avoid falling into that trap. The first season MC watched was S47, which got her hooked. She binge watched about half of the other seasons, so I’m wondering how much she knows about strategic approaches that have worked, and which ones have failed. That could be a huge weakness for her considering so many knowledgeable superfans have been making recent casts. But who knows? She could be a natural at Survivor like Earl, who’d only seen one season before he played. Earl absolutely mastered S14: Fiji.

MC was also a psychology major, so that education might be helpful to her social game. MC got good vibes from “S.S.” (Sophie Segreti) and “Bruce Banner” (Jake) and would be happy to let him build her shelter. She’ll have to wait for a merge because Jakes’s on another tribe. She’ll have to work on Matt or Steven for that. MC says she’ll be aggressive about looking for Idols but will be reluctant to tell anyone if she finds something. MC relates to Yam Yam’s game, specifically the way he integrated his natural sense of humor into his game. She also likes Cody’s quirky likability. She describes herself as a ‘recovering people pleaser.” If she’s preoccupied with making others happy, she’ll make herself into a blindside waiting to happen. If she ends up on the Jury, MC says she’ll vote for who played the best game but didn’t get very specific, only saying “I don’t want to vote based off of relationships.”

MC’s physical strengths probably mean she won’t be a challenge liability. She should have no trouble making the merge unless she gets caught on the wrong side of a swap and can’t work her way into a majority through social means. She doesn’t strike me as the type who’ll be annoying or bossy. I doubt she’ll create a social reason to vote her out.

Sophie Segreti

Just to add to the confusion, there are two players named Sophie (the other one doesn’t use the “e” in her first name), so for clarity, I’m gonna refer to this one as Sophie S. This Sophie is another alternate (from 48) added to the cast. She cites Rachel as her Survivor role model because she was also an alternate. She also relates to Caroline, whom she described as an emotional player. I saw Caroline differently. Even though she had an emotional connection with Sue, her game approach was more businesslike. Sophie describes herself as a “Strategy Associate.” That could mean anything from a basketball coach to a business consultant to an interior decorator. However, Sophie does product strategy for YouTube and she focuses on “the good impact YouTube is creating in countries all around the world. How many jobs are we creating because people are hiring content creators? It’s good to look at the positive side of things. It also involves economics and math, which I love.” She sees similarities in her job with selling ideas on Survivor.

Sophie S. is a lifelong Survivor fan, starting as a child and even participating in Survivor fantasy leagues while in college. She first applied during the COVID pandemic, then applied again and became an alternate for Survivor 48. Missing that cast made her hungrier to play saying, “If I’d made that cast, I’d have felt like an imposter, making it only because somebody got hurt, not because I deserved it. I deserve it this time. I know I’ve earned this.” Now she’s happy she didn’t make the S48 cast because after watching some of that season, she thinks she’ll fit in better with this season’s cast. She realized the plan she had for S48 wouldn’t have worked with volatile players like Sai around. Sophie S. figures to be an aggressive player. She was also an athlete in college, and enjoyed doing the physical training, but found it tough to find things to prepare for Survivor’s mental challenges.

Sophie got good vibes from MC, saying “She just looks like a solid person, very observant, steady and chill. I don’t want a wild card as an alliance partner.” She also liked the “spunk and personality” given off by Annie, saying “she seems full of fun energy.” She was wary of Nicole but didn’t give a specific reason why. Sophie considers herself “handy as hell.” That should increase her value to the tribe early on. Sophie is also a musician who plays violin in her work orchestra. Hmm ... I wonder how a Strategy Associate approaches orchestra? Does she maneuver her way to the front of the string section like a NASCAR driver during a race? Sophie S. isn’t high on Journeys or Advantages because “There’s so many opportunities for something to go wrong. I’m not gonna leave my game up to chance on something like rolling dice.” If she finds an Idol, she’ll keep her mouth shut because “people have been screwed over by sharing too much.” If she ends up on the Jury, Sophie S. will vote for gameplay “I’m not just gonna vote for my friend. I want the one who played the best game, and not just in challenges. Did you wheel and deal to make things happen? They don’t have to be big, splashy moves. Sometimes just surviving and making it to the end is enough.”

I don’t have a solid read on how Sophie S. will do. She seems to fall right in the middle physically and socially, which is normally exactly where you want to be. Will she be able to identify and remove those who are targeting her? Is she persuasive enough to convince others to vote how she wants them to? Sophie S. strikes me as someone who’ll know how to lead her tribe’s decisions without being identified as a “leader.” She should be good at letting others believe they’re leading her.

Steven Ramm

At 35, Steven falls right in the middle of this season’s age range (26 to 52). That alone positions him to fit in and relate to the most players. He looks much younger than he is too. However, as a Rocket Scientist, I wonder if he’ll know how to speak the same language as the others. He presents himself as much younger than his age, and his higher-pitched voice adds to the youthful impression he makes. He gets very enthusiastic about explaining how and why things work. This makes me think it will be tough for him to sandbag his intelligence. Could we be watching a much MUCH happier version of Christian Hubicki in Steven?

Steven got excited about Survivor after following friends’ recommendations to watch S7: Pearl Islands. He loved Rupert’s approach. Lucky for him, he didn’t watch All-Stars first because he might be trying to dig a shelter at the shoreline. Steven says he relates most to Rupert and Charlie (S47). He also likes Tyson’s sense of humor. That’s three red flags for me as Rupert was generally easy to fool, Tyson’s general aloofness and tendency to be condescending got him booted early three times, and Charlie was so concerned about being targeted, his jury was convinced he never made any moves. He couldn’t change that image once he reached Final Tribal Council. Steven liked the way Charlie kept many options open along the way.

Steven says his hearing loss (which wasn’t diagnosed until he was 20!) forced him to become a good listener, making eye contact, and interpreting body language. That’s a plus because early on in Survivor, it’s more important to gather information as opposed to giving it out. He wears two hearing aids, so I wonder how that will affect him during water challenges. Steven is also a musician. So maybe his creative side will emerge and help him assimilate well enough to make a deep run as a contender. Steven says he got good vibes from everyone, and says, “70% of first impressions turn out to be true.” He got good vibes from Matt, saying “He just gave me Rupert vibes. That dude probably knows how to catch fish and build a shelter.”

I think Steven will have a hard time connecting with a majority socially. In his interview, he took the time to explain Supermassive Black Holes (and he wasn’t talking about the great song by Muse). Will Steven know when he’s losing his listeners? Will he be thinking so far ahead of others, he won’t notice them talking about voting him out next? It seems to me Steven is more excited about the experiment of playing Survivor than figuring out how to win it. If I’m right, that makes him a “just here for the adventure” player. Steven is confident he can solve puzzles or Idol clues, so look for him to do some early Idol hunting, but he won’t tell anyone if he finds anything unless he knows he’s in trouble. If Steven ends up on the Jury, he’ll vote for “the most well-rounded person. You can’t get by just by winning the challenges but not playing well socially too. I’d rank ‘Outplay’ the lowest. Social skills are the most important. How did you work with or bamboozle people? Did you make your moves with intent?”

Hina tribe forecast

It seems inevitable that Steven and Matt will be drawn towards each other. Matt will see his favorite player Christian in Steven, and Steven will see his favorite player Rupert in Matt. The question here is how will this duo connect with the rest of their tribe? Everyone on this tribe had good things to say about MC, it appears she’ll have some early security. Sophie S. seems adaptable enough to get along with everyone. She’ll be able to convince them she’ll vote how they want her to. She may also have a natural connection with MC and Jason since they were all alternates. That leaves Kristina and Jason as the two most likely to be voted out first. Normally, I’d say Jason’s small stature puts him at the biggest risk, but I think Kristina is just too nice. She’ll be a great tribe cheerleader, but unless that cheerleader is holding an Idol, she’ll be the easiest to cut loose.

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Kele Tribe (Blue)

At a glance, Kele looks like the physically strongest tribe, with Jake and Alex appearing to be the two strongest men in the cast. Simply having Jake may keep them away from early Tribal Councils.

Alex Moore

Alex is a political communications director. I have no idea what that means, but if his fellow contestants feel the same way, they probably won’t ask him too much about it because they won’t know if he’s lying. Then again, they might think he made up a job title to cover the fact that he’s a lawyer. While this cast didn’t see enough of 48 to know lawyer Kyle won, they probably know he made the merge while lying about being a Lawyer. When I hear “communications” coupled with “political,” I think this guy should be good at putting a spin on the facts in any way he wants. If I’m right, he’ll be pretty good at Survivor. Alex was bubbling over with enthusiasm to get away from Washington DC for a while to play Survivor (who can blame him?). But I wonder if that high energy might make others think he’s playing too hard, too fast? He says, “I’m gonna go balls to the wall because sitting back won’t get you the money.” He’s got “overplaying” written all over his face. Alex says, “My job is madness, whether it’s telling Elon Musk to shut the fuck up or staying quiet, so a bad clip of my boss doesn’t air.” If he can strike a good balance of those skills during the game, he should do very well. Most Survivor players don’t know when to shut the fuck up. Alex has also worked as a reporter but didn’t like it saying, “I like having the tea, but I didn’t like having to search for it.” Searching for it is part of Survivor ... a very important part.

Alex is a lifelong Survivor fan who started watching as a child with his family. Alex liked the diplomatic way Yul played in S13: Cook Islands without angering anyone but says he relates more to Sam from S47. He liked how Sam got along well with everyone. Alex must have forgotten about how Sam clashed with Teeny, Rachel, and Anika. Alex was his high school class president, and believes people see him as the one who connects other people together. He has no intention of telling anyone he works in Politics, but his cover story will be that he’s a Public Affairs Director. I’m not sure what that job is, but I don’t see him being grilled about that either. He wants to come off as “the guy who is there to make friends and keep everyone loose.” He didn’t care for “these stone-faced mother fuckers at Ponderosa.” I wonder if Alex will be the guy trying to lead a group cheer before a challenge, only to be greeted with eye rolls he completely misses. Will he be a male version of Angelina?

After sizing up his castmates at Ponderosa and giving them nicknames, Alex says he got good vibes from “Mama K (Kristina)” who he says is “the sweetest, mom-like figure,” and “Snookie (Jake), who is like every guy you seeing DJ on the Jersey shore.” He wants to hide behind someone playing louder than he’s playing. I say good luck with that, Alex. It’s usually better to have a quieter partner because if people can’t get rid of the loud player, they’ll get rid of his/her partner. He got bad vibes from Nate who Alex says “Looks like he’s out for blood. He won’t smile at all and laughed at me when I dropped something in the food line.” Alex says he’s gonna be aggressive about looking for Idols or Advantages, saying “Why would I not do that?” but he swears he won’t tell anyone if he finds anything. Alex also vows he’s gonna break the “Margarita curse,” (something I’ve never heard of), and that his family warned him NOT to take the Margarita if he has the chance. I’ve never done the research on this. Have we never had a winner who had a Margarita during the game? Do people get voted out after having a Margarita (like some have after eating chicken on a Reward)? Let me know in the comments. If he ends up on the Jury, Alex says his vote will go to whoever was “in beast mode the entire time. You might not agree with how Russell played, but that’s the strategy he used to get there. My whole family thought Russell should have won (in S19: Samoa).” I wonder if that means Alex will laugh at his jurors as their torches are being snuffed like Russell did?

I think people will get tired of Alex very quickly – either because he’s a motormouth or because he’ll be so busy talking to everyone, he won’t realize nobody can trust him with information. He seems destined to be too annoying to keep around.

Kimberly 'Annie' Davis

I’m gonna call her Annie because when I refer back to my extensive notes, I’ve already got a bunch of players named Kim, but none named Annie. Annie is also my dog’s name. At 49, Annie is the oldest woman in the cast. In her interview, she had metallic, silver eye shadow on and her ponytails were dyed bright purple under her full head of gray hair. Her appearance just screamed, “don’t take me seriously!” I’ll be surprised if the other players don’t have similar reactions. But when she spoke, she came off as very intelligent, grounded and no-nonsense. She taught herself how to swim and ended up doing triathlons. She’s also into running and founded a company that focuses on running biomechanics analysis and physical therapy. Yeah, she’s very smart and driven. Annie describes herself as a musician, entrepreneur and a CEO. That tells me she hasn’t really figured out who she is but wants it to sound impressive. She taught herself to play the trumpet, which got her a college scholarship. That’s very impressive. She started a band at age 44 and got signed to a label. Considering the state of most labels today, that’s not very impressive. Most bands today make their money by touring and merchandising, not by selling albums.

I’m not sure what to make of Annie. She looks like an unpredictable wild card type of a player, but doesn’t act like one. Annie is the epitome of a Survivor. She had to lay off 28 of her 30 employees when Covid hit, but kept her company going. During the COVID shut in, she taught herself how to play drums (I can relate. I did the same thing many years ago.) Then she realized most bands don’t want inexperienced drummers, so she learned guitar and started writing and performing her own songs. She formed a band and toured 17 states and two countries last year. I joined a band and played at six different bars. Annie knows how to make something out of nothing. I make something out of watching people on Survivor.

Annie grew up poor, living on food stamps for a while. She should be very comfortable playing Survivor. Annie has seen every season (not in order) but doesn’t call herself a superfan because she can’t remember many details, including who won each season. She didn’t decide to apply until last year. Having done triathlons through rainstorms, Annie isn’t worried about the physical aspect of Survivor, but the great unknown for her is the social elements. Can she relate to the younger players? I think her music background will make her a natural at that. She relates to Kenzie, Yam Yam and Maryanne because of their positive personalities. She says, “People ask me how I’m gonna play but you can’t decide that until you read the room.” I can’t think of a better pregame attitude to have. She found out she’d made the cast just a month before getting on the plane. She was on tour when she got the news. She had about one week between the end of her tour and leaving for Fiji. This tells me she’s good at making adjustments on the fly, which is very valuable in Survivor. She has no interest in Journeys, Idols or Advantages, saying “They can make you a target. If I find one, I’ll take it,” but then she literally flipped off the idea of protecting her vote, saying “I’m a risk taker. If you play a good enough social game, you can mitigate that stuff. If I find an Idol, I’m gonna store it in my prison wallet.” Probst has already had an Idol handed to him after being hidden in a player’s crotch. He should love Annie. She also wouldn’t mind if everyone was given one Idol at the start of the game. I’m actually intrigued by this suggestion because everyone having an Idol/Advantage battle early on could be fun to watch, especially if those Idols are all public knowledge.

Doing a forecast for Annie is tough. She could be booted early because nobody can relate to her (like last season’s Stephanie), or she could make a very deep run because nobody ever considers her a threat. She says she’s not a good liar and is used to sharing her truth in her songwriting. I couldn’t help but like Annie. She’s the older woman type I’ve been pulling for to win the game for a while, and I think her young attitude can take her far. She got good vibes from “the smallest one on our tribe (Sophi B.)”. Annie liked the way Sophi B. was studying the room at Ponderosa. She also liked “the tall black girl with dreads (MC).” She also was drawn to the “smaller white girl with the nice smile (Savannah?).” She gets bad vibes from “People who are super physical and can beat me at challenges, like the big Mr. Beefcake guy, (Jake).” If she ends up on the Jury, Annie will vote for “whoever’s game I respect the most (she didn’t get specific). All three finalists deserve to be there regardless of how they did it.” She also respected Russell Hantz’s game. I like Annie a lot, but I don’t think she can win Survivor. She should leave the glitter and silver eye shadow on the Ponderosa. It was probably a mistake to wear it on the plane.

Jake Latimer

Jake gets attention. Jake was named by the most players as someone they’d like to work with. On the surface, you’d think that’s a good thing, but last season the same thing was true about Stephanie, and she got voted out first. The only ones who got bad vibes from Jake are Annie, Jason and Kristina. So naturally, Jake and Annie are on the same starting tribe. 36-year-old Jake is a corrections officer, so the first thing that tells me is he’ll have a good BS meter. He deals with people trying to hide things from him all day long, and his life could depend on knowing when he’s being lied to. He says he relates to Joe Hunter (aka “the good Joe”) from last season. Much like Joe was playing for the memory of his late sister, Jake’s father is slowly going blind, and Jake wants to play well while his father can still watch him. That’s strong motivation. Jake may be willing to do the cutthroat things other players wouldn’t. Jake is also gonna miss the birth of his first child. He’d better make the most of this, or he’ll never hear the end of it. He probably shouldn’t tell the other players about that either. They’ll see his story as unbeatable in the finals.

Jake moved to Australia to play hockey (who knew they had pro hockey down under)? Like Joe Hunter, Jake is a mountain of a man and will likely be perceived as a challenge beast no matter how he performs. He also wants to play a game that doesn’t backstab anyone. Joe Hunter had trouble with that and came off as insincere when he couldn’t recognize when he was lying to people. Jake sees himself more like Sam from S47 and wants to be “the glue guy” like Sam tried to be. Jake comes off as more soft-spoken than most guys his size. He’s more of a teddy bear than an alpha male. He says, “I’m a Canadian, I’m too nice.” His nice side might make him struggle with making the tough decisions most winners can make easily (he should keep thinking about his dad in those moments). He says he’s not interested in bossing anyone around. That’s a smart plan.

Jake says he got good vibes from Alex “’cause he’s always smiling. If he’s on my tribe, I’m 100% going to him.” He also wants to align with a younger female “so I can be a big brother.” Sophi B. could fill that role for him. Jake says he’s not good at puzzles, so he won’t actively look for Idols because he won’t be able to solve the clues. But if he does find something, he’ll tell someone he trusts. If he ends up on the Jury Jake says he’ll vote for someone who he felt respected by. He also values loyalty.

Jeremiah Ing

39-year-old Jeremiah says he worked in the fashion industry for 12 years and now calls himself a Global Events Manager. If he’s not coordinating the Olympics Opening and Closing ceremonies, I have no idea what that job is. His favorite Survivor player is Tai, but he wants to play like Yam Yam, who made everyone laugh. Yam Yam’s self-depreciating humor was definitely an asset, but it didn’t keep him off the voting radar. He was a top target at the merge, and if not for Joshua and Matt B. shooting themselves in the foot, Yam Yam might not have even made the Jury. Yam Yam definitely caught some breaks along the way. The best plan is to avoid needing those breaks. And while Tai made two deep runs, he made a number of questionable decisions along the way. It still baffles me how Tai didn’t play one of his two Idols at S34: Game Changers final 7 when Cirie point blank told him he was being targeted. He still didn’t play it when the plan Cirie said would save him blew up at Tribal Council. Jeremiah thinks Tai got by on his charm. But I digress, this is supposed to be about Jeremiah. Jeremiah has been watching Survivor since he was 14. He has traveled to 44 countries and has been on every continent. Yeah, he’s pretty global, but I still don’t know what his job is.

Jeremiah came off to me as a little entitled and spoiled in the way he bragged about his accomplishments. Jeremiah is very confident – perhaps overconfident. Instead of telling friends and family he’s going to play Survivor, Jeremiah told them he’s at base camp preparing to climb. Mt. Everest. He only told the truth to his father. Hmm ... I don’t know, something tells me Jeremiah isn’t gonna be a very good liar but will think he is. That’s not a good combination in Survivor. Jeremiah has a VERY high voice and talks fast. That can come off as irritating to many people, and it doesn’t seem like he’ll be aware of it. Jeremiah got good vibes from one of the women whose name starts with “S” (Sophie/Sophi?) and MC. He didn’t care for “the 3 bros who were winking at each other” -- he only listed one set of initials – J.T. That’s bad news for Jason.

Jeremiah is unsure if he’ll tell anyone if he finds an Idol or Advantage. I like that flexible attitude, but he should apply that flexibility to alliance partners. He should keep his mouth shut if he finds a trinket. Jeremiah values trust over anything else. He’ll have no problem voting off a strong tribe member early over someone he trusts more. If Jeremiah ends up on the Jury, he’ll vote for loyalty, but he didn’t put much thought into his answer. He cited Yam Yam and Carolyn’s loyalty even though they lied to and withheld information from each other multiple times.

Nicole Mazullo

Nicole is a Financial Crimes Consultant. Does that mean she was hacking Richard Hatch’s computers to find out why he didn’t pay the taxes on his Survivor prize money? Her background should be of help when identifying someone’s lie, but will it tell her what to do that information? Will she let that person keep thinking their lie is working while subtly exposing it to other players, or will she kill the element of surprise by confronting the liar? She was attracted to the consulting business because it’s a more people and relationship-intensive part of the financial field. She’s gonna tell others she’s a Financial Compliance Consultant, which is a pretty smart cover story because she’ll be able to back it up with plausible details. Nicole comes off as very laid back and easy going, which in Survivor often translates to being non-threatening. It sounds like she’s smart enough to know how to use that to her advantage. In fact, she says being unassuming is her superpower.

Nicole relates to Yam Yam, and believes his win was more due to his ability to connect with people than by luck. She also liked Yam Yam’s ability to remove those coming after him. I don’t agree with that take. By my count, Yam Yam wasn’t in control of any vote outs that entire season, he just talked like he was in confessionals. He didn’t get by on luck, but he was almost never in control of the voting. Nicole also loves Cirie’s game “because she’s so emotionally intelligent and persuasive. I love how she convinced Natalie to get Erik to give up Immunity.” Nicole also calls herself “the love child of Boston Rob and Shambo,” and in a weird way, I can see that.

Nicole says moving from Long Island to Ohio just before starting high school gave her the ability to adapt to unpredictable situations and rely on her sense of humor to get by. She wore hearing aids as a child, then decided to stop. Stopping gave her the ability to read lips from long distances. That could give her a huge advantage if she follows Tyson’s advice – “If the camera crew is filming a conversation for a long time, you should be interested in that.” Nicole got good vibes from “K.M.” (Kristina) who “seems very pragmatic and social.” She didn’t feel good about “M.W.” (Matt) but didn’t go into details as to why. Nicole has no problem opening a Beware Advantage if she finds one but is very hesitant to go on a Journey. If she doesn’t have a choice of going, she’s gonna lie about what happened. If Nicole ends up on the Jury, she’ll vote for whoever showed the most hustle and grit. “Did you play Survivor for everything it was? I’m NOT voting for an honest player. If you want to be honest, go to the Olympics.” Kamilla would love that line. Nicole is the type of player you see and wonder what made her stand out to the Casting Dept? But she’s also the player who makes you wonder “How did she win?”

Sophi Balerdi

I’m gonna call her Sophi B. because her name reminds me of one-hit wonder Sophie B. Hawkins and her song “Damn, I Wish I Were Your Lover.” That will help me distinguish between her and the other Sophie in this season’s cast. Probst, why didn’t you make it easier on is and just call her “Sophi Blue” or just “Balderi? Does Probst have a problem referring to women by their last name? 27-year-old Sophi B. is originally from Cuba and calls herself an entrepreneur who owns a cell phone repair business. She went into that business when she realized her true aspiration – owning a McDonald’s – would cost about 2 million dollars. She was the only Hispanic woman in her grad school program at Duke and feels that experience helps her assimilate with people different from herself. Like most in her cast, Sophi B. has been watching Survivor since she was a child. She’d watch with her late grandmother. She applied and almost made the cast for S38: Edge of Extinction. She finally made it after applying nine times. She admires the way Dee played in S45 but says Natalie Anderson is her Survivor role model. Both are top 10 players in my book. However, Sophi B. says she wants to play more like Cirie, Kelley Wentworth and Genevieve. Cirie is also elite in my book, and Kelley Wentworth is in my top 40. But Genevieve seemed to excel at putting obstacles in her own path. I wonder if Sophi B. knew something I didn’t, because she named three of those returning for Survivor 50.

Sophi B. has a high-pitched, kewpie doll type of voice which could work for and against her. Some could decide she’s not a threat because of it. That could buy her some safety if she gets through the first few votes. But it might prevent her from being taken seriously deep into the game too. In other words, Sophie B. is no idiot, but I can see how she might come across as one. At 5-foot 2, I could see her sneaking up on her competition like Erika, Maryanne, Dee, and Rachel did. She wants to align with the physically biggest people on her tribe, using them as a meat shield. Look for her to approach Jake for that role. She doesn’t like Journeys or Advantages, but says “If I see a Beware Advantage, I’ll open it, but I won’t seek it out. If I find an Idol, I’m not telling anybody. It’s not helpful when everybody knows you have an Idol.” If she ends up on the jury, Sophi B. says she’ll vote for someone who plays a cutthroat game “because that’s the game I want to play. I don’t care about why you need the money or what you’re gonna do with it.” Sophie B. comes across as someone who will play with a lot of intensity without showing it. That’s a good quality for a winner to have, but if she cracks and shows how tough she is, she could find herself out very early just like Maddy from 44.

Kele tribe forecast

It’s pretty clear Jake will be safe early on. Most of the cast has indicated they want to work with this mountain of muscles ... except his tribemate Annie. Her fate entirely depends on how she handles Jake. If people find out she doesn’t want to work with Jake, she could make herself an easy first boot no matter how intelligently she presents her case. Then again, in S47 Caroline swore she didn’t want to work with Gabe in pre-game, and ended up in a strong alliance with him when he showed his Idol to her. If Annie’s strategic brain works well enough to keep herself safe, I can easily see Jeremiah leaving first instead. I see Jake and Alex as natural partners. They see a lot of things the same way, including the way they want to play Survivor. Those two should easily welcome Sophi B. into the fold. Nicole seems flexible enough and smart enough to identify where the majority is formed on the tribe. She doesn’t appear to be the type who’ll be initially annoying to others. I think Jeremiah is most likely to leave first.

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Uli Tribe (Red)

Survivor hasn’t had many tribes that start with the letter U. Uli is the 4th. Sophie Clark is the only member of a “U” tribe to win Survivor. Ulong from S10: Palau only had one member make it to the merge, and Ua from 41 only placed two players (Ricard and Shantel) in the merge. S23: South Pacific’s Upolu succeeded with three players (Coach, Sophie and Albert) reaching the finals. As Casey Kasem might say “And now, back to the preview.”

Jawan Pitts

The first time I saw Jawan, I thought he looked like movie director Jordan Peele. As it turns out, Jawan works in showbiz too, moving from New Jersey to L.A. with only $4,000 in his pocket. He became a video editor and worked on one of the "Transformers" movies. He’s very determined and proved it, making that transcontinental move right as the COVID-19 pandemic began. 28-year-old Jawan says he identifies most with Sean Rector from way back in S4: Marquesas. That tells me two things: 1) Jawan has been watching Survivor since the beginning and should know the game very well, and 2) he didn’t pick a great role model because Sean was very confrontational. He got into so many arguments he had no chance of winning the game even though he made it to the final 5. But Jawan also says he wants to play like Jesse from S43. Jesse played an excellent game. His only misstep was raising his head a little too soon which got him placed in the fire challenge where he lost to Gabler. Jawan wants a predictable and creative alliance partner, which is exactly what Jesse had in Cody. Like Jesse, Jawan is very soft spoken and a little reserved. He doesn’t come off as threatening at all. He also cites Jeremy’s performance in S31: Cambodia as an inspiration, but also says “I’m a black nerd like Maryanne.” Jawan says he practiced a lot of puzzles and making fire because “Sorry, Jesse, but I don’t want to be the guy who gets to the end and can’t make fire.”

Jawan is confident his strong social skills will help him earn trust quickly but is worried he might not have what it takes to cut someone’s throat if he has to. Jawan comes off as self-effacing and humble, which are qualities most Survivor winners have. Jawan gave the other castmates Superhero nicknames and separated them by their initials. He got good vibes from “the Punisher J.L.” (Jake). He liked the way Jake was “always trying to make connections.” He also likes “Spider Gwen A.D.” (Annie) “because she seems sweet and kind.” Jawan calls MC (Michelle) the “Main Character,” whom he sat next to several times “I tried (pointing and smiling) but she was locked in, and I like that. Other than me, she’s my winner pick.” Jawan had me on his side when discussing Journeys saying “Bro, I’m not getting’ on that boat. Everyone who gets on that boat is like the guy in scary movies who says, ‘I’ll be right back.’ You’re not coming back, dude! My strategy is Allies over Advantages.” If he finds himself with an Advantage, he swears he won’t tell anyone. Jawan also thinks it’s time Producers hid an Idol at Tribal Council, so don’t be surprised if he looks for one before the voting starts. If Jawan ends up on the Jury, he says he wants to award a risk taker who put their stamp on the game. He doesn’t care for “someone who made a bunch of big moves but was an asshole.” It’s safe to say Jawan doesn’t endorse Russell’s game.

Nate Moore

Nate is a 47-year-old film producer who has worked on the "Black Panther" and "Captain America" movies. That background should help Nate easily start conversations and connect with his tribemates, but I wonder if his showbiz career will make others suspect he’s wealthy and doesn’t need the money. Nate is a superfan who has seen every season of U.S. Survivor and several international versions too. He identifies most with S14: Fiji winner Earl Cole, so you know he’s speaking my language. Nate likes the way Earl led without being pushy and correctly states Earl was the first unanimous Survivor winner. Needless to say, I’m already on team Nate, even if he only plays half as well as Earl did. But he also thinks Chrissy played “an amazing game” in S35: HHH and ‘found her power.” I saw Chrissy swinging and missing a lot strategically, then saving herself with challenge wins, so we have very different opinions here. Nate thinks he’ll be underestimated because of his age and slender appearance. I think he’s right. That was true about Earl, and he was only 35 when he played. Nate speaks very fast and he’s very articulate. This makes me wonder if others will see him as “too smart to let hang around,” like what happened to Gabe (S47), Tevin (S46), Drew (S45), and Omar (S42). Nate may need to sandbag his intelligence, especially when answering Probst’s questions at Tribal Council.

Nate loves his sarcastic wit but also knows it can get him into trouble if someone takes it the wrong way. Nate isn’t sure if he’ll advertise his job but won’t straight out lie about it because he thinks someone might recognize him. It will be interesting to see how he navigates this possibility. Nate says he’s drawn to “the guy who wears 2 hearing aids (Steven) who seems super cool,” and “the guy with more muscles than all of us (Jake).” He doesn’t want to align with anyone who lies for fun. I wonder how he’ll identify those players? Nate won’t seek out an Idol or Advantage unless he knows he’s in trouble “because having a known Advantage makes your target bigger.” If Nate ends up on the Jury, he says he’ll vote for whoever had the best relationships as opposed who had the most Idols, Advantages or made the biggest moves. He says “That (relationships) is always what Survivor was built to explore. Can you get people to work together – sometimes against their own interests – to get you to the end? I’ll respect that more than an Immunity run, or one big flashy move.” Yeah, Nate and I see eye to eye on Survivor.

Rizo Velovic

I’ve known of only three famous characters named Rizzo – the female supporting character from the play and movie “Grease,” Rizzo the rat who is part of the Muppet Show ensemble, and the Dustin Hoffman character “Ratso Rizzo” from the Oscar-Winning movie “Midnight Cowboy,” (who inspired the Muppet character). This Rizo (with only one “z”) is looking to make himself a famous real life Rizo. He’s in tech sales but went to school to be in broadcast journalism. This tells me he’ll be comfortable in front of the camera and will probably give entertaining confessionals. Rizo doesn’t come off as a cocky salesman at all, he’s very humble. His parents immigrated to the USA from Albania, and he openly shares that they were both custodians. This makes Rizo the first Albanian to play Survivor.

He got hooked on Survivor while watching J.T. lose a tooth in an S18: Tocantins challenge. Rizo says J.T. played a “perfect game,” which many define as getting zero votes cast against him while also getting every Jury vote. I don’t agree with that definition. I guess Rizo missed the many times J.T. was completely fooled by his partners Taj and Stephen. He liked J.T.’s ability to gather strong allies, but he says he identifies most with David Wright from S33: MvGX and S38: Edge of Extinction. He likes how David pulled himself up after getting off to a very shaky start and had a “never quit” attitude. Since Tocantins, Rizo has immersed himself in all things Survivor. However, he also likes the way Dean (aka “D.K. Chillin’”) played in S39: Island of the Idols. Dean played ok but never realized his jurors never took him seriously. He also cites pro wrestler John Cena as an inspiration. Rizo is the youngest member of this season’s cast and likes to sarcastically call himself “Rizgod.” Yeah, his confessionals will be fun.

Like Jawan, Rizo wants a predictable alliance partner. Rizo didn’t take anything to entertain himself on Ponderosa during pre-game, so he spent all of his time watching the other players. He even compared them to previous Survivor players. He got good vibes from “The Canadian guy who looks like Conor McGregor (Jake),” MC “the one who reminds me of Missy from Island of the Idols,” Sophi B. “reminds me of Chelsea from I of I,” Sophie S. “reminds me of Kara from (S37:) David vs Goliath,” and Matt “reminds me of Mike Turner from S42.” Rizo says he’s open to going on a Journey because he’d rather have the information than be in the dark. I think he’s looking to put a speed bump in his path if he volunteers for one. Rizo says he knows the social game is the most important part of Survivor. If that’s true, he’ll hold back on calling himself “Rizgod” around the other players. He says he’ll only use that nickname in confessionals. He also talked about how he helped his parents do their taxes at age 14 and helped raise his autistic brother. These are all good reasons for a Jury to give someone money, but they’re also good reasons to keep someone out of the finals. Rizo shouldn’t share those personal stories early on.

Rizo comes off as a likable kid. That will serve him well, but I wonder if he’ll have trouble being taken seriously too. If Rizo ends up on Jury, he’ll vote for “the player who executed the best strategy, kept themselves off the voting radar, and had a say in how the game played out.” He wants to be one of the greatest Survivor players of all time. He’s only 2 wins away from being a contender.

Sage Ahrens-Nichols

She’s a social worker who describes herself as upbeat and quirky. That’s the same story Mary from last season came in with. Mary found herself targeted early but made it to the final 7. Sage relates to Maryanne who won S42 but also annoyed a lot of players along the way. It’s not a surprise to me that Sage also calls herself “annoyingly persistent,” which probably came from her military background. She’s a Survivor fan but originally applied to be on Big Brother and was nudged towards Survivor by the casting dept. Sage was an alternate for S47, so in this case her persistence paid off. Sage says she relates to Tai’s warmth and sensitivity but added that she’d have no problem locking in on the game aspect. Tai was much more concerned about how others felt. Sage just doesn’t give off that vibe to me. She didn’t like the uncaring way Rome played but respected the way Genevieve created “quiet chaos.” I found that interesting because neither Rome nor Genevieve ever put themselves in a position to win the game. They both hurt their position in the game as opposed to improving it.

Sage comes off to me as very confident and self-assured. That personality type tends to intimidate other players. If people think they won’t be able to manipulate how Sage votes, they’ll just vote her out instead. Sage seems like she’ll try to convince people to vote how SHE wants them to and won’t be interested in even pretending her vote can be influenced. She comes off as a very intense, all-business personality, which can also push potential alliance partners away. She speaks in a monotone manner, which doesn’t convey empathy, relatability or emotion. Sage also strikes me as a “just there for the adventure” type who is closer to being an unpredictable wild card than a serious threat to win. Sage got bad vibes from Sophie S., saying “I just don’t think I’d get along with her.” She got good vibes from someone she called “MMA” (Jake), saying “they look like a badass.” If Sage finds herself on the Jury, she’ll vote for the person who best owns their game. “I hate fluff answers. If it’s not authentic, you’ve lost my vote. If you stabbed someone in the back, own it.”

Savannah Louie

Like Rick Devens, Savannah was a TV news anchor and reporter, but has segued into becoming a marketing specialist. Maybe we’ll get similar “Action News” confessionals from her this season. She openly admits leaving TV wasn’t entirely her choice (her contract wasn’t renewed), and she’s doing marketing for her parents’ company. She fell in love with Survivor after seeing Jonny Fairplay’s “Dead Grandma” lie in S7: Pearl Islands and looks forward to causing some mayhem of her own. She first applied when she was 17 and when she didn’t make it, she angrily stopped watching for a while. Savannah comes in very confident, saying “This is the easiest million I’ll ever make,” but was quick to add “just kidding.” She says she wants to emulate Kim Spradlin (winner of S24: One World) and Dee Valladares (winner of S45). They’re both top 5 players in my book. Playing like one of them could come in handy since Savannah says she thinks she’s gonna be on the “disaster tribe.” Dee and Kim both played in the majority for most of the game. Savannah also likes the way Rick Devens wasn’t afraid to try anything. She doesn’t want to let fear hold her back.

Savannah is VERY charismatic. I can easily see players being drawn to her. If she can parlay that charisma into a strategic advantage like Kim and Dee did, she’ll do very well. Savannah’s attitude reminds me of Kamilla’s last season. Kamilla couldn’t wait to start manipulating people purely for the fun of it, but I think Savannah will have a hard time convincing others she’s willing to follow their lead. She believes her reporter experience of interviewing a diverse variety of people and getting them to open up will help her earn trust while playing Survivor. But she says her weakness is her lack of a poker face. When she’s annoyed, she lets it show. That tells me Probst will pick up on that and put her on the spot at Tribal Council. How she handles his questions will be key for her. Can she give a Probst-accepted response without exposing her strategy or alliances?

Savannah thinks others will see her as a pampered type like Venus or Parvati (I’ll admit, she reminded me of Parvati when I first saw her speaking). If that happens, she’ll need a plan to change that perception quickly. She was immediately drawn to Sophi B. and hopes to align with her. She’d also like to work with “Mr. Muscles” (Jake) and Nate, who she saw writing down every Survivor winner’s name. She wants to work with that kind of knowledge. Unfortunately, neither Sophi B. nor Jake are on her initial tribe. If Savannah is a good liar, she should do very well. But if people see through her and she doesn’t know it, she’ll have killed her chances of winning and not know it. She’ll be seen as phony or fake. If she ends up on the jury, she says she’ll vote for whoever was the most creative and strategic. If someone shows her something new, they’ll get her vote.

Shannon Fairweather

She’s a 28-year-old wellness specialist who is into yoga and meditation. Recent players with that background (Frannie, Jamie from S44) have made deep runs, but none have won. She says, “I see life as one big adventure,” so that’s probably how she’ll approach Survivor – for the adventure as opposed to the strategy or the win. She describes herself as an entrepreneur and once ran a reusable straw company. She currently has a “High vibe woman’s community” company. I don’t know what that is either, but she says, “That just sounds like something the world needs.” She also says, “I grew as a person solo with my boyfriend,” and seemed oblivious to the obvious contradiction in that statement. Her company has “new moon and full moon conference calls so we can realize what’s going on with our planet and use it for healing.” Shannon says, “I live my life with a lot of integrity, truth and honesty.” To me, that means she has no interest in winning Survivor. Shannon is also the latest in a long line of Survivor players from Boston, and identifies with Boston Rob and Yam Yam, which makes my head spin because it’s hard for me to think of two players who are more different from each other. In fact, Boston Rob is a family friend who once worked at her father’s bar. Brice and Wendell held Survivor watch parties at that same bar, and she had a spin class with Aubry. Shannon says she got a lot of advice from Boston Rob before coming out to play. But she also says she programmed an A.I. guru for strategy advice too. Hmmm ... I don’t see Boston Rob telling her to do that.

It was so hard for me to follow what Shannon was saying, I had to take a break to do something more stimulating – namely raking leaves in the yard. Shannon is a motormouth who says her inspirations are “God, the universe, mother nature and the human experience.” When asked which S49 players she got good vibes from, she spoke for 7 minutes straight and never identified anyone. Yeah, she’s a wild card. If her tribemates ask her how she’s gonna vote and she says “I’m gonna do what’s best for the harmony of this game,” she’s gonna see her name on parchment sooner than later. Shannon says, “I want to do what feels right in the moment.” That scares the hell out of most Survivor players who crave more predictable partners. If she becomes a juror, she’ll vote for “truth.” She was clear that she’s not looking for honesty, but a player who is true to who they really are, like Gabler was and Mike Turner wasn’t. That tells me people won’t want her unpredictable vote on the Jury either. Shannon could be the instant outsider and get booted early or the one nobody takes seriously but gets carried deep. But she’s not winning this game.

Uli tribe forecast

Just like Jake and Alex, Nate and Jawan have “alliance partners” written all over their faces. These two just have too much in common not to align together. Jawan might be the one who recognizes Nate. And since Rizo’s ideal alliance partner pretty much describes both Nate and Jawan, I’ll think he’ll gravitate towards them too. Shannon and Sage both seem more like wild cards, so it’s hard for me to think they’ll earn more trust than anyone else on their tribe. So that leaves Savannah as the logical 4th in the guys’ alliance. Her diverse background and charisma tell me she’ll be able to make good adjustments on the fly. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of physical strength on this tribe, so maybe Savannah is right, and they’ll be the “disaster tribe.” If that happens, I think Sage and Shannon are in the most trouble, with Shannon leaving first. Tribes that lose early challenges put more importance on having dependable, predictable partners. That’s not Shannon.

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So, there you have it. If my observations are consistent, one of the players I figure to be the safest will go out first. That’s what happened last season with Stephenie. In fact, I thought Bianca, Mary and Kamilla would be the first voted out of their tribes. But I was right about Mary and Sai going after each other. So, the question is how wrong will I be about this season’s cast? Are Shannon, Annie and Kristina actually the safest ones this season?

What do you think? Do you see any natural enemies? Who is most likely to talk themselves out of the game? Who seems to be a lock to make the merge? Will everyone who respects Russell’s game get booted early for it? Let me know in the comments.