For most of this season, we’ve been seeing the game from mostly three perspectives – Rizo’s, Savannah’s and Steven’s. Sure, we got a lot of confessionals from Alex and Sophi B., but that was because their Kele tribe kept losing Immunity Challenges. Naturally they’d get more camera time. But they talked mostly about their own misery and Jake’s medevac. Most of the bigger-picture strategy talk came from Rizo, Savannah and Steven.

Because of this, it was a surprise to see Rizo and Savannah fall on the wrong side of the first merge vote when Nate got blindsided. Nate was chosen as the target by Sophie S. because he was the safest option who didn’t have an Idol. The plan worked because both Sage and Jawan flipped on their original Uli tribemates. Rizo, Nate and Savannah didn’t make them feel valued or included. They knew they were on the bottom.

This got me wondering how Rizo and Savannah should pivot to not only adjust to falling into the minority, but to have a chance of winning the game. So, I took a look back at how others in the New Era fared when they were in similar positions.

In Survivor 41, Sydney’s Luvu tribe merged with all six members, but three of them turned on her at the merge. Luvu members Danny and Deshawn were close to Sydney and voted for Evvie. They had a second alliance with Liana, Shantel, and Ricard, but couldn’t keep that together either. Original Luvu member Erika (whom Danny and Deshawn tried to remove earlier) ended up winning the game. Danny stuck around a while, but left six votes later. Deshawn reached the finals but lost to Erika.

In Survivor 42, Lydia had been aligned with Hai and Mike. She entered the merge thinking she was secure in a majority, only to watch Omar convince her tribemates to turn on her. Hai left three votes later. Mike made the finals, but lost to Maryanne.

In S43, Elie thought she had a majority. That changed when she missed out on a split squad merge feast and Gabler blurted out “Elie searched my bag!” Elie’s closest partner Jeanine didn’t have a vote and was helpless to save Elie. She ended up leaving two votes after Elie. Gabler ended up winning.

Survivor 44: Matt B. fell victim to falling in the minority after a split squad challenge. His closest allies Frannie and Danny went out back-to-back three votes later.

Survivor 45: J. Maya thought she had a tight alliance with Dee and Julie, but they helped boot her at mergeatory. Then at the split squad merge vote, Dee and Julie’s alliance partner Drew helped push Sifu out. Since J. Maya and Sifu never really had alliance partners, nobody had to recover from losing them. Dee and Austin made the finals, and Dee won the game.

S46: Moriah’s six-member Siga tribe seemed united. She thought she had tight allies in Maria and Jem but fell to the bottom when Maria joined with their tribe’s men to blindside Jem just before the merge. Instead of offering her vote to the other tribes, Moriah remained evasive and got voted out by the majority. Two of her original Siga tribemates (Charlie and Ben) reached the finals but lost to Kenzie.

In Survivor 47, Tiyana thought she had a close alliance with some of her original tribemates. They had in fact agreed to vote out Rachel at the merge. But in another split squad Tribal, Rachel was saved when Sol anonymously gave her a Safety Without Power Advantage and she walked out. Tiyana’s allies turned on her and voted her out. The ally she trusted most (Sue) made the finals but lost to Rachel.

S48: Charity thought she was tight with her original Civa tribemates, but three of them helped boot her when the tribes were brought together in mergeatory. Her closest ally Mitch never recovered from losing her and was voted out in 4th place.

This means in the New Era, nobody who has been closely aligned with the merge (or mergeatory) boot has gone on to win the game. Only three of them (Deshawn, Mike, and Sue) reached the finals. They received a collective two votes. This is clearly bad news for Rizo and Savannah, who were Nate’s closest allies.

But does this mean it’s a guarantee that neither of them will win? It’s a bad sign, but I don’t think it’s a death sentence. For one, Rizo has an Idol. While both Mike and Sue held Idols, neither of them were able to figure out the best way to use them. Mike got fooled into playing his for Maryanne, and Sue never figured out she would never need hers as nobody ever wanted her out. Also, even though Rizo and Savannah don’t know it yet, they’re aligned with Sophi B., who holds a Knowledge Is Power Advantage. Both of them could benefit from Sophi taking MC’s re-hidden Idol from whoever finds it.

Rizo and Savannah need to depend on their BS meter and ability to earn trust quickly. They need to identify whoever is on the bottom of the alliance that just blindsided Nate and convince that person(s) they can’t win in their current position. Those people could easily be Jawan and Sage. So, if they’re smart, Savannah and Rizo won’t burn those bridges and instead pretend to be understanding. It wouldn’t hurt of they identified someone else (Sophie S.? MC?) as the “leader” of the majority alliance who should be targeted.

Like I said last week, I’m most interested in how Sophi B. adjusts to losing Nate. She’s probably in the best position between herself, Rizo and Savannah to secure a new alliance. Let’s see how this plays out.

And away we go…

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Jawan: “We pulled off the biggest move and it feels amazing.” I bet that feeling will change soon.

Sophi B.: “If me going forward means I have to cut Savannah and Rizo, unfortunately, I have to do that.” The best way to do that is to take Rizo’s Idol with your Knowledge Is Power.

Both Sage and Jawan are bugged that MC didn’t believe them, so Jawan tries doing damage control with Rizo. I don’t think he’s very good at it.

Hmm ... Savannah doesn’t have any cuts or bruises on her legs. If I remember correctly, everyone’s legs were pretty scraped up just before the merge. When was this confessional recorded?

Savannah isn’t very good at it either. She’s laying it on a little thick in her “no hard feelings” tour. Why not just leave it at “Hey, that’s the game. I get it,” and move on?

Savannah is in camp watching Sophie S. painting the flag. Why isn’t she Idol hunting? Come on, girl! Your ally just got blindsided and MC played her Idol.

Alex should know what to look for. He has already found one of them.

Kristina finds an Idol, but it’s not the one MC or Alex played earlier. It’s an entirely new merge Idol. I checked a screen shot of the Idol Alex had earlier (See my episode 2 column). MC’s looked more like an earring (see last week’s column). But since Steven and Alex know about it, she should just assume everyone knows about it.

And that’s exactly what Alex is considering doing.

Steven: “Savannah is rubbing some people the wrong way. I might let her continue doing that.” That’s not a bad plan. Let Savannah play herself into a goat.

Sage hasn’t spent much time with Sophi B. They weren’t swapped together at all. But Sage is already saying how much she likes her. Yeah, Sophi B. is good at this game. She earns trust very quickly.

Sophi B. is playing this well. She let Sage come to her and lent an empathetic ear to Sage’s complaints about Savannah. I’ll call this the “I know, right?” move. Or maybe as those with a background in improv acting might say “Yes, and…” You immediately agree, then add a little info of your own. That way the scene can grow. Saying “no” brings it to a halt.

I can’t tell if Savannah’s confessional tears are sincere or crocodile.

Ok, maybe she’s being sincere, especially here with Steven. But if she’s acting, I might put her in the top 10 of Survivor actresses ever.

A classic Survivor challenge. In the most recent “Get a Grip” challenge, producers made the notches for your feet smaller. I wonder if the foot pegs in this one are smaller too. Probst doesn’t want to be out there for hours. You know, ‘cause it’s so hot in Fiji.

I’m calling it now. A woman is gonna win this one.

Oh, great (that’s the drip of sarcasm you’re hearing). Only five people will vote tonight. But it will be interesting to see if the group that ends up with Savannah tries to throw it.

If Steven, Alex and Kristina trust each other, they should throw it and drop out early. That might make the other team compete harder. They all know Savannah doesn’t have an Idol. Sophi B. might even vote with them ... unless of course one of them lets it slip to Sophi that Kristina has an Idol.

Savannah doesn’t have any scars on her legs in the challenge. Confessional conspiracy theory debunked.

Sure enough, the last four left are women.

Making sure you don’t show a weakness for Probst to talk about might be as tough as staying on those tiny footholds.

Sophi B. so openly cheering for Savannah is probably a bad decision. Oh wait, Savannah is fighting for Immunity for her entire team. Never mind.

This makes Tribal Council interesting. It’s a no-brainer for Rizo to play his Idol. Who’s leaving? Sophie S. has already established herself as a challenge beast.

Hmmm ... I wonder if Savannah’s Advantage will be a gift-wrapped Idol straight from MC or Alex’s pocket?

I think Sage and Jawan will stick together. And since they know about Rizo’s Idol, it probably means Sophie S. is a goner. She’s done too well in the challenges so far.

This would be so much more interesting if everybody had a vote.

Sophie S. thinks she can convince everyone to vote for Rizo? Sorry, but that’s a horrible plan.

Rizo, you’re a fool if you don’t play your Idol tonight.

Wait, did Sophie S. just offer up her own name as a decoy vote? Didn’t she get pissed off when Kristina did that? Sophie S. also did a reversal on fruit. She bagged on it when Probst offered it up as a Reward. But in a deleted scene, she talked about how much she loves fruit.

Ok, Sophie S. has a backup plan to put her vote on Jawan ... and MC immediately sells her out to Jawan. No-brainer for Jawan. He’s gonna vote for Sophie S. now. I like this move by MC because it keeps HER name off the radar. But I think she made it too soon.

This is the problem with sharing the voting plan so early. Two-time winner Tony liked to wait until just before the sun went down to share his plans. These people clearly don’t know that. Then again, nobody can hustle under the gun like Tony.

If Sophie S. leaves because of her challenge performances that’s a great endorsement for sandbagging. I don’t think last week’s vote changes if Sophie S. doesn’t have Immunity. She was spooked into playing hard when she heard her name was being thrown out.

Savannah’s Advantage is she gets to vote tonight or save it for later. She knows Rizo has an Idol. Her presence there could backfire. If Rizo knows she can vote, he might hold on to his Idol. I guess this isn’t much different from how Sol got to save Rachel in S47. That was probably the Producers’ intent.

I’ll say it now. Bye, Sophie S.! Sophi B. gets her identity back.

Savannah gets to go straight to the other camp. This is the only time I’ll say it’s ok to get on the boat.

Wait, when Savannah left the Reward feast, she only had her water bottle. But when she went to get her Advantage, she had all her things with her. The continuity cop in me won’t be fooled. Savannah was told she was going to the other camp before she read her Advantage note.

Wow, Sage sells out Jawan by tipping off Sophie S! Now Sage has given Sophie S. a chance to sell her out to MC. Sophie S. goes on an apology tour with Jawan, but I think she should flip it on MC. I think both of them should have waited for sundown to pitch their plans.

I thought they wouldn’t see Savannah until Tribal Council. This is much more interesting. She’s a little too happy about getting to twist the knife. Sure, she earned this moment with her Immunity win, but she could throw away a Jury vote in the process if she enjoys it too much.

Rizo pitches Sage, and she makes a mistake and says no. That’s a reason for Rizo to stop pitching Sage on anything.

Sophie S. does the right thing and says yes to Rizo.

But then Sophie S. comes clean to MC again??? What is she thinking? MC picks up on it and knows Sophie S. can’t be trusted. Guess who MC is voting for now?

It seems like the theme to Sage’s game is “I can’t get rid of who I want to,” even though she got rid of Shannon. And Shannon shot off a few of her toes to make it easy for Sage.

How much better would this episode be if everybody could vote? I really wanted to see how Sophi B. would handle a situation like this. There isn’t much better drama then watching someone in the middle deciding which side to stick with.

Sophie S. opens by explaining exactly all the reasons they should vote for her.

MC looks sick to her stomach. She shot herself in the foot too.

Jeff: “That’s something someone might say if this was theater.” He should have said “Cinema.”

Sophie S.: “It’s me or MC.” She just told MC to vote for her again. As Q would say, “Big mistake.” I wonder if he has tried to trademark that phrase. I wonder how many times he’ll say that next season?

If you have to say “I haven’t lied to any of you,” and ANY of them know you have, you’re asking to be voted out.

DAMMIT! I hate when they don’t include captions with the whispering!

I don’t think there’s a big downside to removing MC or Sophie S. for anyone at this Tribal Council.

Savannah banks her vote. Lauren had a Bank a Vote in S44. She held onto it when she should have played it. Her alliance lost a number, she fell into the minority and never recovered. Just like a lot of the merge boots I talked about earlier in this column.

Rizo holds onto his Idol. I don’t think he’s being ballsy. He’s being sloppy.

MC is gone, and once again, I was wrong. Unpredictable Survivor is good Survivor. I like the fact that neither alliance has been able to take control of the game yet.

I can’t believe you did that either. Maybe Probst’s “You can get on Season 50” speech affected your decision.

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Recap

My head is spinning, and it’s hard to evaluate this episode since I don’t know what the whispering was about. Did MC’s last second move get her booted or was she a goner the whole time? My gut tells me she killed herself when she sold out Sophie S.’s plan to Jawan. The bad part wasn’t necessarily the move, but the timing with which it was made. MC gave everyone too much time to come up with a plan to defeat hers. Then again, Sophie S. was 100% right when she said nobody will have trouble convincing anyone to write down her name later on.

I suppose part of the reason they went after MC is because she did so well in the Tribal Challenges. She did take four Spotlight Roles and killed it every time. I’m sure Nate told everyone she moved most of those sandbags on their Journey too. She didn’t have a choice once she was there, but of course, she ASKED to go on that Journey, didn’t she? Don’t get on the boat!

And I’ll say it again after saying it last week. Savannah deserves props for following MC and finding out about her Idol. If MC keeps that Idol secret from Savannah, she probably doesn’t play it last week and can save herself this week.

What are your thoughts? Did they boot the right original Hina? Is Savannah’s cocky demeanor chasing away Jury votes already (I wonder who Nate prefers between her and Rizo)? Did Sophie S.’s “people will vote for me anytime” plea save her? What if anything could MC have done to rebut Sophie S. at that moment? Will Alex tell Sophi B. about Kristina’s Idol? If he does, will Sophi B. tell Alex about her Knowledge Is Power?

This season got a lot more interesting after this episode. Let me know what you think in the comments.