Our Picks: (guessing right still counts as being right, right?)
Boot: Hunter?  Could it be?
RC: When in doubt, guess Rotu.
IC: Rotu again?

Here's this week's misdirection from CBS:

Episode 3: "No Pain, No Gain"  All we have to go on is what the CBS site gives us, once again.  View the web preview here.
What CBS says	What we think it means	What actually happened
(1) Injuries plague a tribe, which employs a remedy you won't believe.	(1) Gabe's teeth? John's hand? Robert's meat-deprived body? Robert's foot? We're guessing they avoid sacrificing Kathy to appease the gods.	(1) The look on John's face alone was worth the price of admission.
(2) Mutual admiration forms a close bond between two unlikely castaways.	(2) Sounds like Neleh and Paschal are getting frisky.  Must be that Love Tribe stuff working its magic.	(2) Ding ding ding!  And this is unlikely even though it's exactly the same as Rodger and Elisabeth?
(3) One castaway dubs himself "the Godfather" and works to proceed accordingly.	(3) Could be anyone. For variety, we'll pick Rob.  He liked the movie, as did most of the world.  Then again, so did Robert.  Rob is in a potential position of power, though, and the web preview strongly indicates he's contemplating a coup.	(3) Rob it is.  Or so he thinks.

RC/ IC: A rowing/ retrieval challenge - probably RC?
Apparently, MB is skimping on production assistant salaries this week.  Both tribes are shown lashing together bamboo poles, which later appear to have been used to make rafts.  From the previews, we can get a rough idea of what might be going on.  It appears the tribes have to row out to a floating box, somehow anchored underwater.  They then retrieve the box and row back.  Rotu is shown with their box, while Maraamu is not.  This is hardly compelling evidence of a Rotu win, but Rotu has done well in rowing challenges before, and Robert appears to be taking part (even though his foot looks to get injured while building the raft).  So the tribes still match up pretty well, although if John's hand prevents him from rowing, it may be more even. Still, when in doubt, guess Rotu win.

As for the IC, we have no previews.  Maybe ETOnline will help us out again this week.  Given Maraamu's pathetic performance so far, and the rash of Rotu injuries, the IC should be something non-physical.  MB needs to lob up a softball, to help the merge be even.  Unfortunately, Maraamu don't appear to be mental giants, either, and they could well still lose again...

Boot: Could it be Hunter?
If Maraamu manages to pull out an IC win, Kathy is gone.  But if Rotu wins again, it could be Hunter. This would, in many ways, be shocking.  But it's not out of the question.  There are many, many, subtle indicators which, added together, seem to spell an imminent demise for Mr. All-America.  They are as follows:
(1) First off, there's Hunter's own diary.  He has fairly unkind things to say about Sean, Vecepia, and Sarah, and calls Rob a clown.  Doesn't sound like Hunter got along too well with them, did he?
(2) CBS's own foreshadowing.  In these preview images, which appear to be the start of ep3, immediately after the ep2 IC, Hunter and Sarah are arguing.  But look at the symbolism in the position of the moon here:

Hunter, the former Maraamu leader, is shoved off to the side of the moon/ spotlight.

Gina, his "strong ally," is pushed off to the other side.

Meanwhile, Rob, who loves Godfather movies, and seems to be talking about taking charge in the web preview, is dead center.

(3) Peter's Final Chat.  He chastised Hunter's leadership and the tribe's choice of booting him, then said "let's see how their strategy works."  Ouch!  Other insights: (A)"Do you think that Hunter taking 'charge' will be an advantage or disadvantage? Peter Harkey: It's a funny and unpredictable game. I would only be guessing. I'll leave the guessing to you! *laughs* I know one thing, I'll be glued to the TV set."
(4) Patricia's Chat - she talks up Hunter as being God's gift to humanity.  Plenty o' bonding time at Loser Lodge?
(5) The episode title, "No Pain, No Gain."  Two members of Rotu (Robert and John) are shown getting injured in the preview, so clearly they have the pain... do they also get the gain, as in yet another IC victory?  And the next title is "The Winds Twist."  This suggests either a sudden reversal of fortune for Maraamu (IC win), more Burnett-aided manipulation to ensure a near-even merge (S3's Ep5 was called "The Twist"), or both.
(6) Sarah is being edited as lazy and confrontational, and unlikely to last beyond the next episode.  Yet, according to the Orange County Register, she came home starving and covered in bug bites.  This suggests a very late boot, meaning despite what we've been led to believe, she's not the next Maraamu to go.  Either they remain intact to the merge, or someone else goes.  Going back to what Hunter, Patricia and Peter have said, that has to be either Hunter or Gina.
(7) Last and possibly least, Jeff Varner wrote a piece for ETOnline on the interview process, and giving his impressions of the S4 cast on Feb. 13th.  It was up briefly, and ET managed to get it listed with Google, and then completely removed, from even Google's cache feature, within 48 hours (ET is produced by Viacom, which owns CBS).  12 days later, it was up again, in edited form.  The edits removed a section describing the three days after the contestants arrive at the site of filming, before the filming starts.  But also changed was his list of likely pre-merge boots. The orginal list was: "Peter, Patricia, Hunter, Kathy, Zoe and Robert."  When it came up the second time, it was "Peter, Patricia, Gabe, Sean, Sarah and Gina."  What's interesting is that Sarah, who again is being portrayed as dead meat, was included in the new list.  And Hunter and Kathy were both removed.  Hmmmm.