The competition responds:

Ben says:

I like that Ryan takes swings with his number one picks, but I’m not really seeing it with the Gavin pick. He does have the southern charm that someone like a Nick has, but he’s younger and has less life experience. I have a feeling that Gavin’s downfall could be a naïve trust in an ally at some point. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make the merge, as there’s no obvious reason to target him early.  But if he’s seen as a threat he’ll be the kind to go out around 8 (and not return from Extinction Island), and if he isn’t a threat he could be taken to the end as beatable. Gavin is on my list of people who could win, but I don’t think his stock is nearly this high.

Pat says:

I just couldn’t get past Fortnite, but clearly Ryan sees that as a strength.

Jeff says:

Solid first pick by Ryan, mainly because having four returnees will make Gavin's superfan status seem less threatening. On paper at least, Gavin's luck in being put on this particular season is pretty much the inverse of David Wright's. Tennessee/Kentucky accents have been all the rage on Survivor recently, but because this cast had only just seen Ghost Island, Gavin's twang will remind them of kind-hearted and loyal Donathan Hurley, not last season's winner Nick Wilson (whom they hadn't seen). On top of that, Gavin looks like a strong physical asset for his tribe, so he should face smooth sailing for a good chunk of the early- to mid-game. Then the knives come out. (Probably his.)

Dan says:

So, let me put it out there… I wrote for TDT for three seasons, and they ranged from mediocre at the best (Game Changers and HvHvH) to immediately forgettable (Ghost Island), but then I leave and we get David v. Goliath’s greatness? Salty. Anyway.... Despite what several of my cohorts think, I’m all behind this pick for Ryan. Gavin fits the archetypes of two of the past three male winners (namely Adam and Nick) in that they’re not weak physically… but not too strong either that they’re target at the Merge. They outwardly don’t seem like threats pre-Merge, either, which means, once Gavin hits the Merge, he knows enough about the game to cause some damage. Also, I think he vibes well with the cast. I think he’s got the best shot of a newbie to win, for sure.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

Grr! I wanted at least one returnee on my team and I wanted it to be Aubry!  As much as I’m trying to mentally and emotionally prepare for a potential Joe win, in my head and my heart, Aubry’s the only returnee I can actually see winning as long as the jurors aren’t a bunch of jokers, so this is a good pick.  Even when the odds are stacked against her, it’s never bad to bet on Aubry.  EGG!

Pat says:

I get Aubry is a smart player, but I’m not buying that she can win this game.

Jeff says:

Aubry lightly mocked her own luck in Game Changers as it aired, tweeting about how she was the Grim Reaper, because everyone with whom she tried to align swiftly left the game. So, considering Ben had lost all his picks by Day 21 in HvHvH, and by Day 25 in Ghost Island, it makes perfect sense that he'd pick Aubry as his standard bearer this time around. (Kidding! I think Aubry probably has the best chance of the four returnees to go all the way to the end without being voted out, and she's probably our best, Sophie Clarke-esque hope of keeping the final returning-from-Extinction player away from the million dollars, thus saving the franchise. No pressure!)

Dan says:

Damn… Aubry, as my ranking suggests, is my winner pick this season. Her profile isn’t too large (relative to the others), and she can play in the middle for a while. Plus, she can win a challenge late, and we know she can win that final fire making challenge (back when it was cool and not mandatory). Also, on a personal note, I’d love to see her win. I still think she was robbed in her original season, and a win for her would quell a long-held grudge of mine. Go, Bracco, go!

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

Eric is someone that could win if he makes it to the end because he looks like someone everyone will get along with, but his biggest obstacle is going to be actually making it there for that same reason, on top of being an obvious physical threat.  The firefighter should come under fire like many before him and see his torch put out somewhere around the middle of the merge.  Jeremy won, but remember, only on his second chance.

Ben says:

I can’t complain about Pat’s choice here.  Next after returnees, my draft order contained those people I see as most likely to return at final five from Extinction Island, as from there it only takes a couple of immunity/fire wins to find yourself at FTC and with the advantage of the jury getting to know you on Extinction. Eric seems like a prime candidate to return, and also seems likely to be very well liked by the jury. Firefighters have achieved well on Survivor in the past.  He has a drawback as well, though, and it’s that he doesn’t seem like he’s nearly as much of a fan as most of the rest of the cast.  It could count against him.

Jeff says:

Eric, asked to name his favorite player of all time, picked ... wait for it ... ask Arisa Cox to restate the question to stall for time ... trying to recall a player, what was that season they had us just watch? ... Woo. Yes, Woo. I mean, I enjoyed watching Woo, he was a big, fun character, but this does not bode particularly well for Eric's chances of winning. (Points to Pat for also mentioning Woo with his draft reaction.)

Dan says:

Pat got all three of his top picks. That, alone, is amazing. That being said, I don’t hate this pick, but I think he went a little early. Eric seems chill, man, and can ride the wave the way Devon and Alec have in recent seasons. That being said, he will be seen as a threat, and I don’t know if I see the killer instinct needed to win many seasons. But hey, Wendell deservingly won without it.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

Joe being Jeff’s #1 draft pick would be laughably bad in literally any other season like when I shot my entire load on Natalie, but even if it means beating a dead weasel, I’ll say again that this season is designed for Joe to be a top place finisher.  I had a little hope in ranking 5 people above him, but Jeff going all in on this season being all bad isn’t that out of the question.  If you’re to win our fantasy game again, Jeff, you’ll be prying that man tiara from the head of my cold, dead corpse!  Because, and not to be dramatic, but a Joe win would make we walk off the edge of a cliff.

Ben says:

Survivor social media’s main beef in its meltdown over this season’s theme seems to be ‘it’s rigged for Joe’, and for these reasons it is hard to walk past Joe, and I see why Jeff has taken him here (just like putting Ben and Wendell first, he’s the most logical pick on the cast). But the reason I had Joe at number 3 instead of 1 is that I’m not convinced he’s going to win a jury vote. I could see the citizens of Extinction Island framing him as the enemy, the guy that they have to make sure one of them beats to get back into the game. If he then beats them, I could see this translating into resentment in a way it might not for a newbie making their way back in. Especially if the cast themselves perceive the season as being ‘rigged for Joe’. Ultimately, I think Joe only wins if he can convince the other players that his game is more multi-dimensional than it’s perceived as being going in.

Pat says:

Good luck, Jeff. He’ll last a while, but he ain’t winning.

Dan says:

Sorry if some find this offensive, but I think Joe is highly overrated. Once the twist is revealed, hardcore fans should at least think about sending him packing just so he has to spend a ton of time in “extinction,” thus making it harder for him to get back into the game. Do I know exactly how the twist works? Nope, but mark my words, Joe will get the boot at some point (he’s too dominating in challenges not to). Maybe he’ll make it back into the game, maybe he won’t … but I hope so very, very much that a Jury wouldn’t give someone who was rightfully out the title of Sole Survivor. Ozzy might have gotten it in South Pacific if not for a puzzle, and if it comes down to it, I’m hoping for the same thing. Fell the golden boy with a challenge. Huzzah, irony. Side note … why not bring back Jay? Devon? Domenick? Hell, bring back Davie from David v. Goliath … man, I miss Davie.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

I love Kelley, but after her Second Chance showing, I unfortunately don’t envision her going far in this, at least not before getting voted out. The EoE twist is one that might preserve her place in the “game” through the finale, and I suppose Kelley could claw and crawl her way to a win like Joe, but if only one returns to the game via the twist and Joe's in that comeback challenge with Kelley, I say Joe takes it.  Thanks Joe!  Really, Kelley's only mistake in this game will be showing up to it, so if she has a sucky showing, we'll just say, "Wentworth ... does not count."

Ben says:

Like Aubry, but on the Blue tribe that I fear might go to tribal council more often early. I do think Kelley has some cushion in a tribe that isn’t performing (Wendy, Reem, David, Wardog) and so I think she is probably well safe until at least the swap – plenty of time for her to get her social footing within the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a great run from Kelley, and a win wouldn’t surprise me at all (she was inches away from being my winner pick).  But if she’s playing the game in the minority, I can’t see the majority letting her get too close to the end given her history of big moves and idol plays.  I also wouldn’t be surprised if she was swap screwed.

Pat says:

I get it: In previous mixed seasons, returnees win. I don’t believe a cast in 2019 will let that happen again. Especially when there are only four and it’s not Fans versus Favorites. Hence my rankings.

Jeff says:

Much as with her new tribemate, David Wright, coming back on this particular season is not the best draw for Kelley. She came very close to winning in Cambodia, a season many of these new players cite as one of their favorites, so everyone will be well aware of the potential threat she poses to their own chances. She's now a three-time player, she made the most successful idol play of all time, she's won individual challenges. She's an all-around threat. That said, she's also a really useful person to have around before the merge, so it would be pretty dumb to vote her out early. That should give her enough time to gain some solid allies, and rustle up an idol or advantage or three. Really, a lot depends on how receptive the newbies are to working with a veteran, rather than against them. It'll take some luck for Kelley to survive, but she could do it. And if she can make it to the end, she's a solid threat to win.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

Dan and I once again on the same page when it comes to the Kama kiddos.  “iS tHaT a MiLlEnNiAl ThINg???” – Jeff Probst.  I guess as a whole TDT isn’t too high on Victoria, but I hope she proves the gang wrong and, thus, me right.  Lauren Rimmer warned us about trusting redheads, and the Rimmer is never wrong, so I expect Victoria to be a real wolf in sheep’s clothing.  Underneath those freckles and fiery red locks might be a fierce player that no one sees coming.  I always expect greatness from anyone with as much snark as they have smarts, so I’m hoping valedictorian Victoria doesn’t disappoint.

Ben says:

Victoria immediately stands out as the person that I would want to play the game with if I hit the beach and only had first impressions to go on. It seems to me that both Dan and Ryan had similar reactions. So, I get the sense that this is going to be the general sentiment on the beach as well.  That gets her through the early game, but I don’t see how Victoria has any real control in the endgame given this season’s twists.  If there is any player who I think is most disadvantaged just by playing with returnees and the Extinction Island twist, I wouldn’t be surprised if that person is Victoria.  I’m sort of expecting a 5th place or 3rd place no votes finish – through no real fault or flaw of her own. Ranking her at 12, she’s the last person I have that I think has any shot of winning – but it’s a slim shot. Sorry Victoria, really wish you’d been cast on a different season!

Pat says:

She was a “valedictorian” at college and now owns a guinea pig. Does anyone see the irony here?

Jeff says:

Based on her bio and interviews, Victoria's probably one of my favorite new characters this season, but I just worry that she won't blend in on this cast. Swap her in for Jessica/Natalia on David vs. Goliath, or Chelsea/Des on Ghost Island, or Simone/Roark on HvHvH, and she could have done really well. Not sure she will here, though. She's just younger and New York City-er than most of the other newbies. My first reaction to any waitress/model from NYC, though, is always: "Could she be the new Courtney Yates"? And Victoria seems like... maybe? I hope she at least lasts long enough for us all to find out.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

OH YEAH!!  Rick’s another one we all agree is going to go deep, but no one went as far as making him their #1.  I worried Rick would be a little too caricature-y given his cartoonish introduction, but if someone has cold-hearted as me can warm up to Rick, I imagine the rest of the cast will be drinking his Kool-Aid too.  He’s going to be a huge fan favorite for sure, but that person is usually cursed with coming up close but never close enough.  I expect a vote around Day 35 or so to make Rick go from OH YEAH to OH NO!

Ben says:

Rick seems like the Christian of the season to me – charming but nerdy audience-favourite underdog on the team that hits the merge down in numbers, who no one will ever let get in control because they fear his ability to win. But I feel as though his presence in the season preview is a good sign for his longevity within the main game, and it’s not impossible that he could win a competition to re-enter the game. If he does make FTC, he seems like a good bet to be the winner.  For these reasons, I think he’s a very good get for Jeff down here at number 7.

Pat says:

Hey, look, we all ranked someone around the same. Clearly, Rick will win now.

Dan says:

I know I may be alone in this, but when I look at someone like Rick, I’m immediately scared if I’m out there with him. He’s clearly not there because he’s going to be a superhuman in challenges nor is he a model (no offense, dude). He doesn’t even fit into the Rodger/ Big Tom /Ralph/ Keith Nale niche of an aimless, amusing, and backwoodsy type that production likes to throw out there every now and then. What does that leave me thinking? He’s a fan and he’s smart. I like him on paper, but something tells me the returnees are going to cut him before he becomes too big of a threat. He could easily win this thing, but everyone would be insane to let him get to the end.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

Yikes, did I really rank Aurora lower than everyone else did?  I hate that because I love Aurora, but I love winning just a little bit more, and winning is something I worry about when it comes to Aurora.  She’s strong, smart, sassy, and super competitive – as a woman, those qualities just don’t work in Survivor and it’s a sad shame that's still ongoing.  If Aurora can reverse the curse of so many wonder women before her, I’d be so behind it, but this doesn’t seem like the season to be holding out such high hopes.

Ben says:

Aurora seems all set to be the ‘female villain edit’ of the season, but I don’t think she’ll deserve it.  I do also think she’ll have real game.  Aurora is the only first time female contestant I see having any meaningful shot at winning the whole game. I could see her creating good relationships and having strong social capital in a majority deep into the game.  I can also see that she could be strong enough physically that she’d have a chance of winning her way back into the game from Extinction Island.  Since I can see multiple paths to her being around in the finale, she’s a good pick for Pat here at 8.

Jeff says:

Aurora's going to be fun to watch, even if she tones down her bluntness (as she claims she will in her pre-game inteviews). But if not, Disney has taught me that people named Aurora take extended naps (on Extinction Island) then awaken to claim their thrones, so there's really no downside for Aurora this season.

Dan says:

I hope Aurora does well. She’s exactly the type of woman I want to see succeed out there, and I think if she doesn’t come across too strong at the outset, she’ll be sitting pretty for a while … but that is a big if. I’d love to see her emerge as a superpower out there, but if she pisses someone off early and pays the price, I won’t be surprised, either. Side note, if you start with Aurora and move up on this list (also while taking out Eric and adding Julia), I believe these are the most likely candidates to win. If anyone else wins, I’ll be pretty surprised, for what it’s worth.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

Chris strikes me the same as Eric, which is why I ranked them #9 and #10 in this draft.  Again, I think he’ll do fairly well and make the merge, and if he makes it to the end, I think he’ll have played an impressive game to get there with the ability to smooth talk and swing a jury (a tiny bit better than Eric, which is why Chris is my 9).  Chris will have Joe as a shield against getting the “golden boy” badge, but if Joe’s either out our immune, Chris is in danger.  At least he’s a lifelong fan of the game, so he should be strategically savvy, but all that really does is add “brain” to the “brawn” and “beauty” threat Chris exemplifies.

Pat says:

Wow, Ben really loves dudes who claim to be able to sell anything to anyone.

Jeff says:

Everyone points to Michael Yerger and Dan Rengering as Chris's recent Survivor döppelgangers, but for me, the real twin is Survivor NZ: Thailand's Josh Hickford. Before that season aired, I thought Josh had a good chance to go all the way ... but he ended up the sixth person out. I think Chris has a good chance, too, so (1) I'm sorry in advance, and (2) let's hope he does better than 13th place. To that end, Chris is a superfan, and seems like a solid contender to thrive on Extinction Island, so maybe he can seize the unexpected benefits of this dumb twist?

Dan says:

I thought someone already drafted Eric? Kidding, but really, he’s the same just less laid back and a bigger fan. If a head’s going to roll right at the Merge and it’s between them, Chris should get the boot before Eric every time. Not expecting much.

The competition responds:

Ben says:

I like Keith.  I think he might be something of a poor man’s Davie.  But I’ll believe a jury will give a 19 year old kid a million dollars when I see it.

Pat says:

Ryan and Jeff really liked this guy and I put him 16th. They’re willing to look past the whole 19 thing. I’m not. Let’s see …

Jeff says:

In my cast preview, I predicted that Keith might be this season's Matt Elrod, guiding people through the Extinction Island purgatory. Part of that thinking is also that Keith has the strength to withstand an extended stay there himself (which, now realizing that he's never camped before, might have been a bit optimistic). So let's hope instead that Keith is likable and connected enough that he never becomes a target, then makes a big move at the end to secure many jury votes. (Except that would mean Ryan would join me as a two-time winner, and we can't have that.)

Dan says:

Yes, Michael and Julia have changed the conception that teens can’t play this game, but he’s also not a model-esque person, and he’s one of the only people of color out there. He’s got a bomb story, and I’d love for him to go far. I just don’t see him being anything more than a pawn to someone else’s game.

The competition responds:

Ben says:

I felt brutal ranking Lauren this low.  I actually really think she’ll have game.  But she’s going to pair up with Kelley Wentworth and I’m betting that it’s going to end her game one way or another – whether it’s collateral damage to weaken Kelley, or because being in Kelley’s general vicinity gives her the appearance of being a threat, or because she turns on Kelley too early and isolates herself, or even because she gets to the end but is perceived as a pawn in Kelley’s story.  The best thing that could happen to Lauren is that Kelley gets taken out at the very start before Lauren gets too deeply connected with her.

Pat says:

Ryan and Jeff are really skewing young with these picks. I’m just not convinced.

Jeff says:

I like Lauren's chances for pretty much all the same reasons Ryan stated. Then again, Ben's scenario of a Lauren-Kelley alliance would be fun to watch, and if the implicit threat that combo poses gets Lauren voted out, that's good news for keeping Ryan away from the winner's circle this season, so I'm (reluctantly) for it.

Dan says:

Will she likely be around for a good chunk of the game? Barring a catastrophic performance by her tribe in immunity challenges, yeah, she will be. Do I think she’s much of a threat beyond that? No. No I don’t. She’s a lesser Victoria, to me, and as noted above with my pick, I’m Team Vicky all the way. (I say that, mind you, without knowing what kind of player Victoria’s gonna be.)

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

Ben with the bold pick compared to the rest of us by ranking Ron in the top half (third, even!) of the cast.  I don’t see Ron making the merge, especially being the oldest guy in the cast and a guy who’s admittedly assertive and aggressive when it comes to competition.  He’s going to step right into his teaching role and quickly get on Kama’s nerves.  If his bio is to be believed, he’ll also be wanting to vote out the returnees, and given Joe and Aubry’s popularity with the fans, I think that’ll hurt him in this cast.

Pat says:

Ben picked Ron because he’s hoping for some unique moments made.

Jeff says:

I ranked Ron this low because his life story is far too compelling for anyone to let him get anywhere near the finals. But after spending more time with his bio and pre-game interviews, he freely admits to being hyper-competitive when playing games, and a bit of a sore loser, and now I wonder if he'll actually be this season's villain, and end up voted out because of that? Neither path seems ideal for getting to the million, though.

Dan says:

Did not expect you to go this early, Ron. Look, I like Ron, but he’s clearly old (in Survivor terms), and he’ll win in the end. I doubt he’ll see a swap, but if he does, hell, he could surprise and make the Merge, but who would let him get to the end? Sure as hell not returnees.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

Julia being this low is a little surprising, but I can also see why she’s no one’s first pick.  I think she’ll play a solid, steady game but then become the type that can smell the money, so she’ll set out to make a Big Move™ which will cost her it all.  These are just my wild predictions — Julia’s someone I can see getting some bad cards dealt to her pre-merge or also lying lower than I expect her to and being a potential contender.  I’m basically covering my bases here and saying that Julia could land anywhere form 18th to 1st and I’d understand it.

Ben says:

Julia is a bona fide fan of the show.  But Julia is beautiful and kind-hearted and sweet and, in my opinion, will be treated by a lot of the fans out there as a recruit just because she presents as having the qualities of one, even if she shows her bona fides.  I’m also not convinced she has any killer instinct at all. I could see Julia being the merge boot or something like that – the person no one is willing to fight for because she isn’t truly in anyone’s plans.

Jeff says:

I share Ben's concern that Julia may be too nice, too caring (good qualities in a future physician), to play a cutthroat game. But there have certainly been seasons where that person ended up coming out on top — for example, Natalie White in arguably the first season of the modern idols era. But there have been other recent "nice" winners: Wendell Holland, Adam Klein, Michele Fitzgerald, Jeremy Collins. Sometimes a velvet glove helps soften the blow. Julia could do it, but I still think others on this cast have a more likely path to victory.

Dan says:

Pat does it again. Okay … I can’t believe Julia is going this late. She seems solid, solid, solid. Unfortunately, she is one of the few people of color out there, and that’s going to make her stand out. I think she’ll make the Merge without much worry, but after that, I’m worried her attempts at winning could be marred by people will see her as the threat I believe she will be. Best of luck, Julia. If my team or Aubry don’t win, I’m pulling for you all the way! (Also, Ben … Julia as #15? Excited to see why!)

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

Another returnee like Kelley that I’m SO sad to expect to see so little from in terms of survival.  Since Aubry lost at Final Tribal Council and it’s been confirmed (I think?) that David would have won Millennials vs. Gen X had he been there, one could argue that David played the best first game out of all the returnees, thus making him the biggest threat of them all.  With Aubry, Joe, and Kelley losing twice and David only once, that may make David stand out.  I’d say David has the absolute largest hill to climb out of anyone in this cast — I only ranked him at #12 because if he makes it to the end, he could still win, which I have a tougher time imagining from those below him, but that’s the biggest if when it comes to this season.

Ben says:

It’s kind of ludicrous that David has dropped as low as this, and in some ways Jeff has a steal – because if David somehow works a miracle and makes it to the end, he is guaranteed to win. But he’s going to be the returnee with the biggest target on his back, and the least to offer, on the tribe that I think is going to lose early.  David has first (or very early) boot written all over him this season.  There’s a chance he could win his way back in at the end, but it seems pretty slim to me.  I could never fully rule out David Wright – but he has a bigger uphill battle than anyone else on the season to have any chance of making it to the end. As much as I’ll be rooting for David this season, any episode that he survives will be a minor celebration.  And if there’s any bright spark in this season’s theme, it’s that we might just get David on our television for 12 more weeks than we would have otherwise.

Pat says:

You can tell all our rankings were odd since Jeff got David, but I have him ranked significantly higher than everyone else. Good pick.

Dan says:

Poor David Wright, going 14th overall. This, however, does seem like the right place for you to end up. You’re the most likely of the returnees to go home early, and while the season’s twist’s inner workings remain a mystery, I doubt you’ll make it back. You really got screwed here, homie. You should’ve come back on an all returnee season where you could blend in a touch more. Alas, I’m rooting for you buddy. Prove me wrong and win this shit.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

I guess Pat’s hoping for another Rimmer-esque showing from Reem?  We’re kind of mixed on this one, but I’m confident in where Jeff and I have placed her, and while both are a little too blunt for their own good, I don’t see Reem having the same kind of success as Lauren did.  Maybe she won’t be the first or second boot, but I have a tough time Reem making it to the end and winning.  She got dumped by her personal trainer at the gym, and that person was getting paid to spend time with her.  That doesn’t exactly give Reem’s social skills a rave review.

Ben says:

I like this pick from Dan, certainly over the remaining available options.  Reem is another with high first boot potential, but with players like Wendy and David on her tribe, she might have some time to work social angles.  In her First One Out interview, she pretty much hit every one of David Bloomberg’s rules for playing the game when describing how she wanted to go out and play.  If she can put into action what she said she was going to do, she could well be the next Lauren Rimmer.  Then again, she might never have the time to overcome first impressions.  Here’s hoping.

Pat says:

And the same thing with Dan and Reem. [Ed. note: Observe Pat's high Reem ranking.] Although, now I watched Reem’s video and I’m thinking my ranking was a wee bit aggressive.

Jeff says:

I originally had this for Julie, but it applies just as well to Reem: If there's one demographic group that has the odds stacked against their chances of winning, it's players over 40. Add to that the prevalence of women being voted out before the merge, and the odds are really stacked against Reem pulling this off. Which sucks, because she looks like she'll be a fun character.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

Julie seems really sweet, but I don’t see that “killer” in her that’s usually necessary to win the game.  Julie’s another one who I can see as an early boot or someone that last a long while by not making any enemies, but at the same time not making a lot of big decisions that would help her make a case to a jury.  Team Ghost  drafted at least one finale face in our Ghost Island game, which is more than Ben can say, so if history repeats itself, then of this season's undrafted three, I’d say Julie has the best chance of sneaking into the season’s end.

Ben says:

Julie is an ‘older’ woman without the redeeming feature of appearing to know the game the way that Reem does. I just can’t see any world in which Julie wins.  I think her best outcome is that the strength of the yellow tribe carries her past the early game, where she’s likely to have the biggest target, and then she’s able to float to the end where she’s beaten by someone whose game is more flashy.

Pat says:

Julie will come in third place in this game.

Jeff says:

Julie's a superfan, living out a dream 17 years in the making, and here we all are, saying it won't be successful. Good job, us. Still, the same probabilities knocking down Reem's chances also apply to Julie. Ryan's right, though, the undrafted Team Extinction will probably kick at least one of our butts this season, so maybe it's better to be here than to have been picked?

Dan says:

I had to go back and look up who Julie was to make sure that this wasn’t a “Julia” typo. That gives you my feelings summed up pretty well.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

From the first seconds we saw of Wendy back in December, I thought she could be a strong competitor, but after seeing a little more of her in the pre-game press release, I think her strong personality will negate any other ability she may have to do well in Survivor.  She’s got the biggest, brightest personality of them all, but I think it’s going to burst early, resulting in a quick boot.  Wendy may have more energy than the Energizer Bunny, though, so I can at least see her making a long run on Extinction Island.

Ben says:

I was rooting for Wendy after the season preview.  I still probably am rooting for Wendy.  But, after listening to First One Out, I can’t imagine Wendy’s tribe will be rooting for Wendy for all that long.  She can really talk, and I think she’s going to grate on nerves early.  And she’s on the weaker-looking tribe.  I’ll be surprised if Wendy makes it past two tribals with her torch alight.

Pat says:

Wendy will come in second place in this game.

Jeff says:

Big Wendy is here to be a big character, but it's not clear how long that will last. She pledged "I'd rather get voted off in a blaze of glory" than to play a boring game. But thanks to this season's twist, she can get voted off in a blaze of glory, then continue playing the game. Will she? Probably. Will she be the person coming back from Extinction? She will probably need to do it twice, so... that seems unlikely.

Dan says:

I just don’t see what you bring to this game other than the potential for some quirky confessionals. That’s not enough to win a game… even Fabio could win challenges.

The competition responds:

Ryan says:

WARDOG WARDOG WARDOG!!!!  No one’s going to love a wild-ass performance from The Wardog more than me and The Wardog himself.  From The Wardog’s bio and video releases, I’d say that The Wardog had a chance, but I’ve followed The Wardog’s social media presence enough in the days that followed to see The Wardog’s bark and bite at equal measure, and typically the winner isn’t as boisterous and getting into fights with former players before the season even airs.  However, The Wardog should still be a wonderful ride for as long as The Wardog lasts either in the game or on Extinction Island.  If there’s one thing I don’t think The Wardog is, it’s a quitter, but I could see someone else be a quitter because of The Wardog.  If the strategy once voted out is drive someone over the edge into quitting, then The Wardog may actually excel that, but for that same reason, I don’t see The Wardog winning it all.  Woof.

Ben says:

The Wardog talks a good game.  The best thing that the Wardog can do is say ‘Hakuna Matata’, find his Timon, and chill for the early part of the game.  The Wardog said that the Wardog didn’t want to look for idols before the swap – the Wardog needs to deliver on that promise to get footing in the game.  But the fact that the Wardog refers to himself in the third person as the Wardog on twitter, while already being on the offensive before the season even begins, suggests to me that the Wardog can’t keep his aggressive side in check. The Wardog compares himself to 7 past winners, and Phillip Sheppard. The Wardog might have got the last comparison right, but I’d say a better comparison is Joe Mena – brash, a little obvious, and disliked by too many of the Wardog’s fellow castaways to win.  The Wardog is one of the few who could win his way back to the game, make it to the end, and still not win due to just not being liked enough. Or the Wardog could back up his pre-game talk and surprise me with his calm.  But I’m not banking on it.

Pat says:

And the winner of Survivor: Age of Extinction? Ladies and gentleman … Wardog!

Jeff says:

The Wardog probably won't be an early boot. But he also probably won't win. He's going to get voted out at some point, because he's a law student, or because a poker player, or because people think he's too much like Tony, or too much like Joe Mena, or even just because he's a strong guy and the merge just happened. He's certainly got a shot at sticking it out on Extinction Island, but I still don't like his chances of actually returning to the game if he's up against Joe. Which seems like the most likely scenario.

Dan says:

You go by “Wardog,” and your average ranking was lower than anyone else’s in our draft. What else has to be said?