The competition responds:

Andy says:

I played in a fantasy baseball league many years ago where a friend of mine picked Jason Varitek first overall; he simply couldn’t bear the thought of not having 'Tek on his team. Every other owner in the league breathed a huge sigh of relief, of course, because all of the top players remained on the board. That’s sort of how I feel about Laurel going in this spot; with his #1 pick, Pat selected Varitek! WHEW. Okay, here’s the thing: I should love Laurel. She’s smart, she’s a fan, and she shares my wife’s name. But who is she bonding with on her tribe? The other women are self-identified “guy’s girls” and the men may very well be intimidated by Laurel’s triple-threat status. Plus, the elements are going to kick her ass (she’s tall and muscular and will be super hangry)... and Survivor doesn’t have a great track record with women of color leaving the game early. I’d love it if she stuck around—she seems kind and thoughtful and quite possibly charming—but I don’t think she will. Pat, she’s all yours.

Ben says:

Cydney Gillon.  This isn’t a bad pick first up, as I think Laurel does have the smarts to go very far.  Some people are immediately comparing her to Michaela, but I think they’ll realise she isn’t quite quickly.  This could cause them to relax, but it shouldn’t, because she’s still good – people may have forgotten Cydney already.  There’s an outside chance that she could be Cirie with challenge game.  Definitely a real contender.

Dan says:

Dudes… friends… readers… everyone, I have zero idea what I was thinking with my draft order. Laurel 5th is just one of many mistakes I made? She should’ve been more a 10 for me. Anyway, I like her on paper, but I can’t shake the feeling that her social game is going to be far too robotic. Yes, she’s smart and athletic, but in a winner-take-all competition like our draft is, she’d have to play perfectly to win with what I see as a (admittedly pregame) lackluster social core.

Ryan says:

Wow.  I ranked the #1 draft pick dead last on my own list.  It’s a bold strategy, Cotton – let’s see if it pays off for me!  Don’t get me wrong – Laurel will be a fierce competitor, but if she’s coming out of the gates strong, everyone’s going to take notice.  The big Survivor fan in her isn’t going to let her play a quiet game which could lead to an earlier departure than she (and Pat) are expecting.

Jeff says:

I'm not seeing the downside that Ryan does. Laurel seems really well-rounded, a legit fan, and solid socially. She'll be an obvious challenge asset early, but doesn't seem super-threatening post-merge. Good pick for Pat.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

MOTHERHANTZER! I wanted a reason to dance around and sing Arrested Development’s “Mr. Wendell” in my Hatch suit. Oh, well.

Ben says:

Jeremy Collins.  Last year, I put Ben at number 12, because when I looked at the cast he was the ‘obvious winner,’ and I didn’t think the obvious winner would be allowed to get deep.  Turns out I should have gone with my gut.  This year, I was determined not to make the same mistake.  Wendell is the ‘obvious winner’ on the cast, and he’s my winner pick. No thanks to Jeff who scooped my winner pick up before I could get to him, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Jeff go back to back and win the draft two years in a row.

Dan says:

The fact that all of us but Ryan had this dude in the top 5 I think says it all. He looks about as solid as anyone in the cast, and my only solace here is that I didn’t put him as my number one pick as I wouldn’t have gotten him anyway, so I should get my first draft choice. Right? Right?! ... (Ed. note: See next pick.)

Pat says:

I like Wendell, I do. So I think Jeff made a good pick here. But, you know, he’s 33. I know, I know: 33 is young. But in this season, Wendell might as well be on Social Security, so I’m wondering if he can fit in. 

Ryan says:

Evidently, I’ve just completely missed the boat on seeing Laurel and Wendell as the strongest contenders to be the next Sole Survivor.  I like Wendell enough, but he doesn’t scream to me as someone who’s got the best odds at winning.  He says he wants to play the game like too many different people (citing Tony, Sarah, Tyson, Brad, and Jeremy in a single interview) which makes me worry he’ll end up all over the place with his game.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

Great pick. I mean, Brendan shouldn’t even sniff the finals—he should be under constant assault after the merge—but there’s a good chance he gets in a tight alliance and rides things out for a while. And then, he might as well wear Batman’s utility belt to hold all of the idols and advantages Probst will give him.

Dan says:

...Wrong. Damnit. Look. Brendan even has my name in his! We were meant to be together. Boo, Ben. Boooooooo. What more can I say other than he was my number one pick, and while a lot of my comrades on here think he could be a pre-Merge or early-Jury casualty, I still think he’ll make it far. However, if my compatriots are right about his fate, I guess I got off the hook?

Pat says:

Speaking of Social Security, I’m not sure what Ben’s thinking here. Ben, it’s not Survivor: Thailand anymore; physical 40-somethings just aren’t winning this season.

Ryan says:

If Brendan is sitting at Final Tribal Council, I’d throw all my money on him, but that’s exactly why I see him having a tough time getting there.  Then again, all previously held notions about who can and can’t get to Day 39 were completely thrown out the window last season, so it’s tough to say what shouldn’t be possible anymore.  If Ben can pull it out, so can Brendan.

Jeff says:

I'm rooting for Brendan, because he seems like a really good, knowledgeable, well-rounded player, and besides, how can you root against a guy that almost made it on Survivor: Marquesas, kept trying, and finally had his chance 32 seasons later? He runs ultra-marathons! He likes the Smiths and Sub-Pop and Jack White! What's not to root for? Alas, he's also 41, so while he's almost the same age as Mike Holloway or Jeremy Collins were when they won, people on this cast will be looking at him like he's Joe Del Campo. All because someone wanted FigTayls 2.0 (noting that this season was cast before Cole-Jessica happened).

The competition responds:

Andy says:

I had a horrible first impression of Gonzalez… but then I listened to the podcast with Wigler, and found her articulate and observant and awesome… but then I heard what the other players thought of her pre-game and I think she’s doomed. At least I’ll get to break out the Gonzo Muppet Show trumpet early in the season.

Ben says:

Paloma.  Remember Paloma?  Me neither.  I couldn’t even swear to you exactly which late teens season she was on – I think Gabon?  Looking down the Malolo tribe, I just don’t see where Stephanie Gonzalez fits, and I’m not confident that tribe is going to win the first immunity either.  Gonzalez is my first one out pick, and failing that I expect a purple edit heading towards an unmemorable pre-merge run.  Sorry Dan, I think you’ve struck out. Her possible saving grace?  She looks like a potential challenge beast.

Pat says:

We all know I ranked Stephanie high, so I’m good with this pick. Of course, Dan should know me being good with a pick is probably a bad thing.

Ryan says:

I’m glad I’m not the only person to see a lot of potential in Gonzalez.  I wonder if she answers to that back home or if this was another forced naming to avoid confusing.  Would Steph and Stephanie have been so difficult?  Apparently so, but between the two, Gonzalez has much better odds of going all the way.  She reminds me a little bit of Michele with maybe a little more spunk and tomboy in her.

Jeff says:

Stephanie/ Gonzalez could be great if she's as lively, fun, and devious on the island as she seems in her Gordon Holmes and Josh Wigler interviews. Even if it's just in confessionals! Will she? I dunno.

The competition responds:

Ben says:

Casting sees Aubry Bracco, but I’m not buying.  I see something more like a quirkier Jessica Lewis.  I like Kellyn, and I hope she does well, but I get the sense she’s going to have some blind spots – and she’s unlikely to have a David Wright to bail her out.  Drafting her at 5 is a little bit of a reach – but I still think it’s a solid pick for Andy.

Dan says:

Everyone else had Kellyn at least in their top 9… and I just don’t get it. She seems decent on paper (I like her life experience foremost), but truly bland in a lot of ways especially in a season where a lot of people do appear to be real fans of the show. I don’t think she’ll go home immediately, but I just don’t see what y’all’re seeing. Time will tell, I s’pose—but hey, Gonzalez was my first draft, so I can’t talk much, right now.

Pat says:

Andy, welcome back to TDT. With that said, did you forget the age-old adage: Never draft someone who’s name can’t be enunciated. Or sounded out.

Ryan says:

I have so much love for Kellyn.  She says she’ll win because of her ability to make people feel comfortable and I can totally see that.  From watching Kellyn in interviews, her body language is one that makes you want to be best friends with her, but she’s also incredibly sharp and savvy.  Her bio reads, “I think I am just sweet and sour enough to come out on top” which perfectly sums up why I think she could win.

Jeff says:

I moved Kellyn way up in my own rankings after I sent off my draft list. This is a really solid first pick for Andy. I could easily see Kellyn becoming the new Kim Spradlin, probably doing so without all the challenge wins, but against much more formidable competition.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

Pretty sweet pick for going last in the first round, Ryan. Domenick is high-variance—the kids could pack him and the other geriatrics off to the Ponderosa nursing home—but if he settles in, watch out, he’s going deep. He’s a lot softer (in a good way) than the “I’m going to play like Tony” narrative would have us believe.

Ben says:

Better than Joe Mena, but definitely in the same casting type.  If Domenick does anything untrustworthy people will see him as Tony.  If he stays calm and collected they’ll see Boston Rob.  Domenick has a huge climb before him to make it anywhere near final tribal – but if he does you can probably pencil in the million now.  He could easily be the player who finds all the idols.  He’s a big swing for Ryan at number one, but a completely understandable swing.  (Having said that – can we stop trying to cast ‘the next Tony’ CBS?  It’s as played out as ‘the next Cochran’!)

Dan says:

Ryan, he was your number one? Really? I’m wholeheartedly with Pat on this one: never back someone who spells a relatively common name uncommonly. On top of that, he just seems like a grouch waiting to snap. He also seems kind of douche-y, and I have a real hard time believing he’s going to click with the season’s super-young cast. Good luck, man. I’ll stick with Gonzalez.

Pat says:

I’m not so sure I get this pick. This dude basically screams, “I’m not going to go with the flow.” And that’s a problem with a bunch of young folks on the island.

Jeff says:

A good pick. Domenick has a huge number of skills that should serve him well here. The downside is that everyone thinks he's a Tony/Russell/Boston Rob hybrid in the pre-game, so they're scared of him. But again, he seems to have a lot of interpersonal skills, and he's thought a lot about the game, so he might be able to overcome even that. I'm at least excited to see what kind of mischief he can create.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

As Bradley’s spot-stealer would say, “Bradley, zero chance of winning the game.” Here’s the thing: I think I’m going to love watching this guy. I want him to go deep. And it would be entertaining as hell to see him argue his case at Final Tribal. But he will be targeted relentlessly after the merge just because everyone else will know -- by watching and listening to him -- that he’s out for himself and himself alone. One of the more refined skills of Survivor is convincing the other players that you’re a supporting actor in the movie of their heroic victory. That sort of deference doesn’t seem to be Bradley’s thing.

Ben says:

Spencer Bledsoe.  Bradley even sounds like Spencer.  I don’t think Bradley will have the skills to get him to the end, and if he does I’m not sure people will give him the win.  Most likely, I think he comes across as one of the most threatening fans in a cast where there are many, and that’s not good for his chances.  The one thing he has going for him that Spencer didn’t is that he’s a little older, but if anything I think that might mean people are less likely to excuse his arrogant tendencies (where with Spencer, people more willingly forgave it during the game because he was young). I wouldn’t have wanted him this high.

Dan says:

I see a younger version of Domenick, one who’s way more conceited because he goes to a great law school. I just think back to his pregame interview where he said he likes to pick at people and taunt them—not to mention he used the word “simple” to describe folks—and I just don’t see him making it deep, let alone to the FTC.

Pat says:

I hope this dude grows on me, because, on paper, there is not a more annoying castaway. He’s going to think he’s so much smarter than he is and when he realizes he’s not the smartest, it’s going to bother him to the core.

Jeff says:

I love that Bradley is fully embracing the smug, condescending genius schtick that Spencer floated pre-game in Cagayan. Will he continue to do that in-game? Probably not, but it'll be hilarious if he does!

The competition responds:

Ben says:

I can’t put Stephanie J in a box.  She’s perhaps a more colourful, loud Laura Morett, but in some ways she feels like something entirely fresh.  I do get just a little bit of Tyson from her though (and it’s not just her Mormon past).  I think people are going to warm to her and like her while not really seeing her as a threat, and it could just be too late before they realise it.  Stephanie is in my group of genuine winner chances.  Good pick, Andy.

Dan says:

Andy, consider me stumped. While I don’t understand Bradley or Domenick above, this one floors me. This woman, despite being a longtime fan, seems like she’s going about a billion miles a minute, and I can’t see how that won’t drive people up a wall. Also, she wants to be remembered for being brightly colored. Ew. Hard pass.

Pat says:

To quote the great Mel Kiper, I like this pick, but I’m not sure how much value Andy got here.

Ryan says:

Stephanie may be the biggest dark horse in this whole race which is ironic given that she’s playing the game in clothes brighter than the sun itself.  I’d love to see Stephanie win because she seems like one of the most excited people to play.  That’s not saying others don’t seem enthused – Stephanie’s is just, like with many other things, on another level.  If this was a popularity poll, Stephanie would have been #1, but trying to pick the winner here, I sadly had to rank her lower.

Jeff says:

Stephanie's kind of in the same boat as Brendan, not because she's over 40, but because she's a mom. She herself told Josh Wigler that she sees herself as part of the "old people club" because of that. If she can fit in early, she should do pretty well post-merge. I just worry that she won't fit in early.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

The game is designed to get him deep. But he seems a be lacking guile behind the smile; I suspect that he’ll be easy to blindside. More than anything, though, it comes down to this: there’s no room on my team for someone who refers to himself in the third person while calling himself, “Survivor Seb.”

Ben says:

Dan, what are you doing?  Gonzalez, now Sebastian?  Sebastian has Ozzy Lusth written all over him, and I’d say his winner chances are pretty much the same as what Ozzy’s were in the two seasons he played that were full of returning players – zero.  I can’t see this group of fans ever voting to give him the money.

Pat says:

Fittingly, in the middle of the draft, we get a just-OK pick. I honestly have no idea what to think of Sebastian, which is why I ranked him right in the middle.

Ryan says:

Sebastian is surprisingly not a tool, but like some of his predecessors, he too will be the human dolphin with long hair who the tween girls fan over and uncomfortably ask questions to at the finale.  Also like those before him, Sebastian should do well enough to make the merge but finally get voted out somewhere mid-jury for being too much of a golden boy.  Threatening the tribe’s supply didn’t work for Ozzy so it probably won’t work for Sebastian either.

Jeff says:

Thanks to the reduced food and the chore list, he should go pretty far this season. He's also an actual fan, so that's cool. (Albeit a Rupert fan.) He could be the beneficiary of the F4 firemaking, but even so, can he win? Doubtful. (Again, he's a Rupert fan.)

The competition responds:

Andy says:

Who knew that Artificial Intelligence had advanced this far? And yet, the cybernetic scientists really need to work on the dermal layer; James looks like he’s my age, and I’ve got 20 years on him. While intellectually I understand why many of y’all might rate him highly—he’ll be good in challenges, he’ll work hard, he’ll be trustworthy and dependable—I just don’t FEEL it, you know? Listen to him talk, and then listen to Kellyn getting interviewed. There’s a substantive difference. And it’s all about empathy.

Dan says:

Ben, another solid pick, I think. Smart, athletic, and seemingly like a nice, genuine person. I’m a little surprised he made it this far down/I didn’t put him higher. Still, he’s one of the few this season who I don’t believe to be a hardcore fan, and that could hurt him. That being said, Ben, you’ve got yourself a swell looking team thus far.

Pat says:

Look at that, Ben. I should be mad you stole my next pick, but after last year’s draft, I’m just happy you might compete this season.

Ryan says:

While Bradley was the one who likened himself to Spencer, I could see James being the bigger Bledsoe-bot and having a tough time with making believably genuine connections with others.  He’s on the very high end of the intellectual spectrum and it’s rare to find someone who is equally high on the social spectrum.  That said, as a Harvard grad, he could be smart enough to just get by on faking it.

Jeff says:

James is all-around great, apart from the whole being-called-a-robot-by-Probst thing. Solid pick, and weird that someone who was in the top 6 for four people fell all the way to the #10 pick.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

Jeff’s a lot smarter than me, so I’m going to trust his read on Desiree. I, on the other hand, simply can’t figure her out. Is she going to be the resilient manipulator that we all hope she’ll be? Because she has that in her. But she also has the potential to flame out: She could turn on someone in her alliance... she could chafe at the leadership style of “The Noble One”... there’s a lot of volatility to her, I suspect. Has anyone with a potentially volcanic temper ever won Survivor?

Ben says:

This is the Michaela Bradshaw in the cast.  I love how softly spoken she is coming across so far, I think she’s going to translate well on TV.  But I’ll believe a jury will give $1 million to a 21-year old African-American woman when I see it.  Until then, I’m just going to hope Desiree has a deep run, because I think she’s going to be good TV.

Dan says:

Put Desiree seventh, I said. No one’s going to put her higher than that, I said. It’s strategy to get someone who seems like a great preseason UTR player who could cause havoc at the Merge as potentially your third draft pick, I said! *sigh* What the hell is wrong with me? Bravo, Pitman.

Pat says:

I honestly had to go back to my notes to remember Desiree. Those notes made me remember she works out at her college gym. So, yeah, there’s that.

Ryan says:

Half of us have Desiree near the bottom of our list while the other has her closer to the top.  Desiree seems spunky and scrappy which if channelled correctly could push her to the end, but on the flip side, those traits could push others away from her.  She may be able to endure a lot, but Survivor is known for pushing people to their breaking points especially with other people.  I have a hunch that if something or someone isn’t to Desiree’s liking, she’ll be vocal about it.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

I steadfastly refuse to pick Survivor bloggers and podcasters until they do well. Jacob, please show Nick and Max how it’s done? Please and thank you.

Ben says:

Rob Cesternino.  That is a very flattering comparison, but Jacob just doesn’t fit the modern ‘superfan’ casting archetype at all – he’s not in the Cochran mould.  The person he reminds me of most is actually Casey Abrams from American Idol.  I don’t think he has any true equivalent in Survivor history, and that could work to his advantage.  I also get the sense that, at least for now, everyone wants to work with him.  I think he’ll be well liked and go deep.  A very good pick from Pat down at 12.

Dan says:

While I’m not quite sure why Jacob got top five placement from Pat, Ryan, Ben, and Jeff, I really don’t get why he’s Andy’s number 20. He’s a blogger, which I love, but he’s probably the weakest physical male out there. Yes, in tribes of ten he can hide out a little better, but if I see a nerdy guy who loves Survivor, I think that’s someone I don’t want around come the Merge. Maybe his social game can float him, but that’s a big if in my book.

Ryan says:

Andy has Bob Ross Jr. at #20?  Let’s all paint Andy a picture showing why it’s wrong to brush Jacob off so quickly.  Everyone’s going to love Jacob.  Like I said in my cast assessment, the only way Jacob’s game goes south if he’s just so unprecedentedly bad at challenges that his tribe has to let him go.  Jacob may fear that about himself, but I don’t.  I think Jacob will be around for a long time, hopefully bringing some comedic relief and in a better way than coming up with analogies that make sense to no one.

Jeff says:

Great pick. I worry that if Jacob's tribe ends up losing a lot early he could become a target, but he seems really good socially, so I'm thinking he can work his way out of trouble, at least for a while.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

Nooooooooooope. Too much, too much, too much. I mean, this is horribly unfair, I’m going on next to nothing, but every pre-season video and still image shows Morgan in a state of high emotion. A big laugh. Huge smile. Even her body language is loud. I imagine living with her 24/7 would be exhausting and overwhelming. (I hope I’m entirely wrong about this and that she’s really very sweet and kind and won’t break my face if we ever cross paths.)

Ben says:

Ashley Nolan with less game.  The cast already thinks Morgan is Kim Spradlin, and that’s bad news for her, especially given how good she will be at swimming.  Morgan gives me the impression that she misses social cues, and that combines with people seeing Kim Spradlin means she’ll be targeted as a threat and won’t see it coming when she is.  Morgan may well make the merge, but she’s not going to be a major character in the season.

Dan says:

Athletic and attractive? Check! Self-proclaimed talking loudly to the point her friends need to tell her to cram it? Ooh. Don’t like that. I’d be baffled if her swimming prowess doesn’t make it to the Merge, but I have a hard time seeing how this Orca trainer wins it all.

Ryan says:

Morgan’s another one I like a lot but don’t know if she says “winner” to me.  She has a lot going for her on paper, but a lot of this cast is coming to play hard and while perhaps her ability to blend in will help her longevity, I’m not sure I could see her as “the one to beat” going up against a jury or as one who had a major hand in how the game was played.  I can definitely see her making it to the end, however.

Jeff says:

I think Morgan has the tools to go at least as deep as Ashley did last season. She doesn't seem like an overt schemer, so she should be fairly safe, as long as she's in the numbers, and she's built for the post-merge immunities. But as a non-schemer, can she win? Hard to say. Maybe.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

The only thing I’m looking forward to about watching Michael play is that gross “Tom Hanks in Big” moment where Michael reveals to Libby that she hooked up with a high school kid.

Ben says:

Nick Carty.  Michael is going to be bland and forgettable. He could well be a decent player, but his fundamental problem is that he’s mature for 18 but immature for 23 (which is the age he’s going to claim he is).  People aren’t going to give the money to either a mature 18 year old or an immature 23 year old.  Which probably isn’t a problem, since Michael seems like the type to be dragged along for muscle until the merge and then seen as an expendable member of the alliance. Even if he has game, I can’t see Michael reaching the end as anything other than a goat.

Dan says:

Let me be clear. I like Michael, I truly think he’s going to be around for the long-haul this season. As much as I would like to back someone who seems competent for an eighteen-year-old… I still qualify him with “competent for an eighteen-year-old,” not competent in general. I stick by what I said in my assessment: I think he’ll be around for a while, but as a pawn and not a player.

Pat says:

He’s 18, Jeff. He can’t even drink legally.

Ryan says:

I’d be seriously skeptical of any 18-year-old playing Survivor, even if they tell the cast they’re 5 years older than that, but then I remember that Fabio is also a Survivor winner, and he acted about 5 years younger than his actual age, which was already low at 21.  Michael seems like an impressively mature teenager and I have better feelings about him than I did with Will in Millennials vs. Gen X, but given that he’s young and athletic, he’ll have a tough time surviving once the merge hits.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

Apparently, Libby was wearing make-up at pre-game Ponderosa. MAKE-UP. You can have her, Ben.

Dan says:

Stereotypical hot blonde? I like her chances to make the Merge. Much like Michael, however, unless she is in the KR-Julia business of busting down archetypes, she’s a goat, not a gamer.

Pat says:

I don’t care how good, on paper, Libby might seem: You simply can’t root for someone who idolizes Elisabeth Hasselbeck, Ben. You just can’t. It’s forbidden.

Ryan says:

Sweet, beautiful, innocent Libby.  This game is way too cutthroat for her.  Libby will be like someone’s puppy dog but once that person’s gone, Libby may struggle to fend for herself.  Most will probably like Libby, but she could be someone seen as a safe, easy vote later in the game, and should she make it to the end, I don’t see her having a confident, convincing case to make for the jury.

Jeff says:

Libby's another player who seems a lot better than I originally thought, now that I've heard more interviews. If a non-superfan is going to do well this season, she's probably the one most likely to do so. Good pick.

The competition responds:

Andy says:

I love this kid. EVERYONE loves this kid. The other players are going to love him so much that they’re going to add another line to the chore chart: “Donathan being Donathan.” Activities that qualify: “Shaking his ass” (don’t glare at me—those are his words in a Wigler interview!)... “Saying something Eastern-Kentucky-unintelligible but everyone laughs anyway because he’s just so earnest and sweet about it”... and “apologizing for strategizing.” It’s the latter point that makes me pretty well convinced he isn’t winning, but the journey will be a fun one.

Ben says:

Mater from Cars.  I can’t be the only person who hears that, right?  Also Spencer Duhm from Tocantins.  Donathan seems like the sweetest person ever and every single person out on the beach is going to love him.  But I also think he has a lack of guile that is going to make it very hard for him to make effective game moves – he’s likely to either be transparent or hurtful.  In any event, I think that people would get him out before he reaches the end, because who wouldn’t vote for sweet Donathan?  Dan has redeemed his team slightly, though, with real value down here at 16.

Pat says:

After watching some videos and reading more, I understand why a lot of folks are higher on Donathan than I am. But, please, remember: This dude wants to change the world through dance.

Ryan says:

I’m surprised Donathan is #16 in this draft, but even if I think he’s likely to go deep, that doesn’t mean I think he’s a lock to win.  Donathan’s another person who I think a lot of people will love and will be a popular sought-after ally, having the second-most colorful personality after Stephanie.  For that same reason, he’ll turn into a massive jury threat later in the game that will likely fall just short of winning.

Jeff says:

Donathan is someone who could go really far, and I think he could win, but he seems too nice to play a backstabbing-heavy game. So if he does win, it would be because everyone loves him, and despises his opponents. But you never know, maybe he has a secret cutthroat mode that will surprise everyone.

The competition responds:

Ben says:

Probably Alexis Maxwell.  But in Chelsea, I see someone who could finally and legitimately be the Parvati heir CBS is looking for.  She’s a sultry NBA dancer, capable of flirting with the macho men.  She’s been showing off her geekness, so she’s capable of flirting with the nerdier crew.  She is an EMT, and that suggests to me she can flirt with the intelligent.  And I think she can also draw in the girls with a ‘women’s alliance’ plan if she wants to.  She’s so hard to pin down for sure, but if she pulled out a Parvati game it would make for an exciting season.

Dan says:

Andy, I think, much like me nabbing Donathan at 16, you getting Chelsea this late is a gem of a pick-up. If she doesn’t flare out in the first few boots, I think this girl could really make it far. If she positions herself right, I honestly think she could win. Again, great final addition.

Pat says:

To continue with the sports metaphors I’ve sporadically thrown here, Chelsea is the epitome of replacement-level player. I know she’s new to the game, but this exact person previously played like 3,451 times and never won.

Ryan says:

I’m totally judging a book by its cover but Chelsea looks like a lot of the people we see as early boots.  She has a quieter personality and while I think she’s physically capable of more than her small frame may suggest, she may find it difficult to make a strong impression with her initial tribe.  Then again, if people forget about her, she could last a while, but being forgotten about also won’t win her a million bucks.

Jeff says:

Chelsea is the kind of player who would be easily overlooked as a strategic threat, except that in the pregame, she was reading A Game of Thrones, which everyone noticed and found alarming. That seems like both a cool surprise and poor pre-game strategic thinking on Chelsea's part. Unless they all forget it the second the game starts. (They might.)

The competition responds:

Andy says:

Ryan, you’ve got three men… I’ve got three women… we need to get our two squads together and see what happens. Actually, we know what would happen: Bradley ends up with Kellyn… Domenick and Stephanie J would hang out… and Chelsea would completely shut down the Noble one (who would then sulk in the ocean while composing rap and counting his abs).

Ben says:

Jay Byars – and that’s his upside.  Ryan finishes off ‘team arrogant’ with a man who believes that his game-changing move could be hooking up and then convincing people that a power couple isn’t really a threat.  Uhhhhh, no.  Chris has a 0.0% chance of winning this game.

Dan says:

I mean, I don’t at all like his chances to win, and he seems overly macho/alpha enough that he might even not make the Merge. Still, he’s a lot better than Jenna and I think he’ll likely do better than Angela. So. Best of the remains, I guess.

Pat says:

So here’s some good value. I mean, I don’t think there’s any way in hell he wins, but Ryan’s made a good pick here. That’s good since he took Domenick with his first pick.

Jeff says:

My top impressions of Chris are that he sounds exactly like Coach, that it's always cool to have former baseball players on Survivor, and that he seems like a slightly jock-ier version of Matt Quinlan.

The non-drafters respond:

Andy says:

Hard to believe that a 23 year-old Venice Beach ad exec whose primary goal at the moment is overcoming RBF (Resting Bitch Face) isn’t getting more love. But here’s the thing: Kellyn doesn’t like her. KELLYN! I trust Kellyn. Kellyn knows people. Kellyn likes everyone. But she doesn’t like Jenna. That’s enough for me.

Ben says:

Morgan McLeod. At least, that’s what I hope Jenna’s like.  I really don’t think she has any chance of winning, but I’m kind of all for her leaning in to her ‘I’m more beautiful than everyone’ persona that feels like it’s lurking under the surface.  I also hope that her game seems more or less isolated from everything else going on around her, which is how Morgan’s seemed to me in Cagayan.  I like a surreal ‘did you apply for the wrong show?’ plot.  Other than Stephanie Gonzalez, she seems like the most likely person to be on the outs in Malolo.

Dan says:

She doesn’t seem athletic enough to compensate for the fact she describes herself as having no filter when there’s no food in her. Other than that, she seems like a filler pick by casting, and I don’t like filler.

Pat says:

Let me remind you what Jenna said in her CBS Q&A: “I have been able to manifest anything and everything I've ever wanted in my life.” Now you know why she went undrafted.

Ryan says:

I’m not totally surprised to see Jenna undrafted, although I’d have taken her over several others.  Jenna may go a decent distance in the game, but like the others, I don’t really see her name being flipped around on a parchment as Jeff reads, “the winner of Survivor: Ghost Island…” I’d maybe feel differently she not said she was open to being in a showmance.  She should have called up her girl Figgy to learn how that ends.

Jeff says:

Probst highlighted her as someone to watch this season, which makes me think he prepared a list in case someone asked him about this, and a producer looked over that list and said "Jeff, it's all men, you should include at least one woman," and in frustration, he just selected the name that was closest to his.

The non-drafters respond:

Andy says:

If she made an appearance during one of our editorial meetings in the executive boardroom of TDT, she could kick all six of our asses without breaking a sweat. So I’m worried. Can I draft her now, just to be safe? I like her, I do! I just think she was dealt an awful, awful hand.

Ben says:

Kelly Remington, perhaps.  Angela stands out in the Naviti tribe as the person who is far and away most likely to go home first. She could end up surprising us all, but I just can’t see anything about her that suggests she could win.  The only reason I ranked her as high as 16 is that if she somehow surprises me and turns out to be the Rimmer-like surprise of the season, she could be handed the win if she makes it to FTC.

Dan says:

Okay, hear me out, I had Angela ranked the highest of the TDT crew (though still at a humbling 14). I think, as the oldest woman out there, she’s got a lot of hurdles to overcome, but I wrote off Lauren the same way last season. This woman is fit, and while her personality may clash with some of the men out there, I think everyone as a whole is writing her off prematurely. I doubt she’ll win, but I think she’s better than we’re giving her credit for.

Pat says:

She’s old enough to be some of these folks’ mother. She’s on a season with a bunch of young folks and she’s a mom and a multi-decade veteran of the military. Oh, and she’s on a season with superfans and she’s one of the very few who is not. This will not end well for Angela, who I’m sure would do well on a normal season.

Ryan says:

Angela Perkins – 0% chance of winning this game.  It’s almost like they picked a cast specifically to torture this poor woman.  “Let’s stick her with a bunch of people almost half her age from totally different backgrounds in a game that already is unkind to strong-willed women over 40 and see what happens.”  Lynne Spillman must have hated Angela – not on a small level simply to pass on her, but on a level large enough to cast her with people she absolutely has no shot of winning against.  That’s cold.

Jeff says:

I don't understand putting Angela on this particular season. It's like they wanted to make absolute sure she had nothing in common with anyone, and thus zero chance to win. She probably would have done fine on MvGX.