Jeff Pitman's Survivor: San Juan del Sur recaps
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Survivor: San Juan del Sur boxscores - Episode 14
"This Is My Time"
By Jeff Pitman | Published: December 18, 2014

Filmed: July 7-10, 2014 |  Aired: Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Keith wins advantage
Keith wins IC
Baylor idoled, 2-[0]

 

  • Ep14 Reward challenge: "Pole Dancing" - Keith wins advantage in the immunity challenge.
  • Ep14 Final Five immunity challenge: "Spoon Man" - After practicing, Keith easily wins, 3 balls to none.
  • Ep14 Final Five voted out: Baylor, idoled out, 2-[0], after Natalie plays her idol for Jaclyn, erasing 3 votes.

 

Jaclyn wins final immunity
Keith voted out, 3-1
Natalie wins jury vote, 5-2-1

 

  • Ep14 Final Four Immunity challenge: "Temple of the Dog" - Jaclyn pulls off a surprise comeback win.
  • Ep14 Final Four voted out: Keith, 3-1 over Missy.
  • Final Tribal Council: Natalie wins, 5-2-1 over Jaclyn and Missy, respectively.

 

Episode 14 scoring notes

Notes: Nothing particularly abnormal, except that Natalie successfully played her idol, saving Jaclyn, and that Missy sat out two of the three challenges (F5 RC, F4 IC).

 

Vote count (Final Five vote):

- (Jaclyn received 3 votes, from Keith, Missy, and Baylor, all voided when Natalie played her idol).

- Baylor received 2 votes, from Natalie and Jaclyn (idoled out, 2-[0]).

Vote count (Final Four vote):

- Keith received 3 votes, from Natalie, Missy, and Jaclyn (voted out, 3-1).

- Missy received 1 vote, from Keith..

Vote count (Jury vote):

- Natalie won, and received 5 votes, from Josh, Jeremy, Wes, Alec, and Keith.

- Jaclyn finished in 2nd place, and received 2 votes, from Jon and Reed.

- Missy finished in 3rd place, and received 1 vote, from Baylor.

Episode 14 boxscore, part 1
Reward Challenge F5 Immunity Challenge
Contestant ChW ChA SO Plc %Fin ChW ChA Plc %Fin
Natalie 0 1 - 2 0.80 0 1 t-2 0.50
Baylor 0 1 - 4 0.40 0 1 t-2 0.50
Jaclyn 0 1 - 3 0.60 0 1 t-2 0.50
Keith 1 1 - 1 1.00 1 1 1 1.00
Missy - 1 1 5 0.20 0 1 t-2 0.50
Episode 13 boxscore, part 2
F5 Tribal Council stats F5 Immunity Challenge
Contestant VFB VAP TotV TCA ChW ChA SO Plc %Fin MPF
Natalie 1 - 5 1 0 1 - 2 0.75 0.72
Baylor 0 2 5 1 - - - - - 0.50
Jaclyn 1 0* 5 1 1 1 - 1 1.00 0.55
Keith 0 - 5 1 0 1 - 3 0.50 0.79
Missy 0 - 5 1 - 1 1 4 0.25 0.32
Episode 13 boxscore, part 3
F4 Tribal Council stats Final Tribal Council
Contestant VFB VAP TotV TCA JVF TotJ JV% SurvSc SurvAv
Natalie 1 - 4 1 5 8 0.625 1.63 12.31
Jaclyn 1 - 4 1 2 8 0.250 1.04 6.15
Keith 0 3 4 1 - - - 0.68 5.37
Missy 1 1 4 1 1 8 0.125 0.81 4.03
Baylor - - - - - - - 0.75 2.30
Jon - - - - - - - 0.77 5.08
Alec - - - - - - - 0.59 2.68
Reed - - - - - - - 0.51 3.26
Wes - - - - - - - 0.69 3.51
Jeremy - - - - - - - 1.16 4.69
Josh - - - - - - - 0.61 1.88
Julie* - - - - - - - 0.11 1.70
Dale - - - - - - - 0.35 0.63
Kelley - - - - - - - 0.94 2.15
Drew - - - - - - - 0.15 0.40
John - - - - - - - 0.26 1.04
Val - - - - - - - -0.12 0.00
Nadiya - - - - - - - -0.56 0.00
Glossary of terms
  • Challenge stats
    • ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
    • ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
    • ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
    • SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
    • Plc: Place finished in an individual challenge
    • %Fin: Percent finish - roughly, percent of a win achieved, with 1 being 100%.
    • MPF: Mean % finish - mean of all % finishes in individual challenges.
  • Tribal Council stats
    • VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
    • VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
    • TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
    • TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
    • TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
    • wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
  • Jury stats
    • JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
    • TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
    • JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
  • Overall scores
    • Survival Score (SurvSc). It's simply the sum of Challenge Win% (ChW%) + Tribal Council% (TC%) + Jury Vote%, for a maximum possible score of 2 (3 after the finale).
    • Survival Average (SurvAv). It's a simple sum of fractional Challenge Wins (ChW), weighted TC Ratio (wTCR), and (eventually) a weighted Jury%. The latter two max out at six points total, for a theoretical maximum score of around 18 or so.

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