Savannah is fucked.

If she sees more than two tribal councils, I will eat a rock. Nearly everyone in this cast considers her an immediate “foe.” The cast should be fully aware of the danger of letting an unknown player deep into a returnee season mainly from watching Russell steamroll in Heroes vs. Villains. He didn’t win (thank god), but he certainly did damage to which Colby and Coach can personally attest. “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” – several cited this saying when talking about Savannah.

I almost suspect the show of wanting to stack the deck against Savannah in a “first to worst” storyline for ultimate shock value. She’s starting on Cila with 5 old school vs. 3 new era, and Joe may as well be old school with the way he plays. I cannot see her having anywhere near the power she had in 49. Savannah will be completely at the mercy of the other 23 players, and I suspect little mercy in Survivor 50, so for that reason, Savannah’s my #1 pick for first boot. Had she waited a few years to come back, I think she would go much further, but here I fear the worst.

Q is…something. He talks a big game but is a big red flag to everyone else’s. The way the cast talked about him in interviews, you’d think he was going out of his way to put on a one-man show at Ponderosa. On his Vatu tribe, I’m again sus of a little manufactured drama with him being placed next to Aubry – on 46, Q targeted someone because she reminded him of Aubry, and I’m sure Aubry is aware of this. That is definitely going to play a factor in tribe dynamics and not in a good way for Q.

He was thrown a bone with also getting Rizo (a scary unknown like Savannah), Kyle (the freshest winner on everyone’s mind), and Angelina (notorious for a long list of memes from S37: David vs. Goliath), but I don’t expect any of these shields to be big enough for Q. I think a deep run for Q in this game would be entertaining, but I just don’t think it’s realistic. Anyone wanting to work with Q would be making a BIG MISTAKE.

Financial Analyst Emily Flippen! I know she was initially against ever playing again, so I was pleasantly surprised to see her in the cast because she’s one of the favorites of the new era. She said she wasn’t happy with her arc and last impact of going from a hard to soft human, so she’s back to land somewhere more in the middle. Emily received a mix bag of feedback in the “Friend or Foe” game, but my gut is that she’ll end up making more foes than friends. She’s bold, she’s blunt, and she doesn’t back down from a fight. This makes Emily great TV, and while she said she doesn’t care about how others perceive her, that’s kind of…a giant part of the game.

Emily is such a unique person that I struggle to see where she’ll fit in with this cast. I’d love for Emily to go far, and she has a strategic mind but still is going to be relatively lacking socially. My main hope for her is to just not be First Boot Emily Flippen but I think the first Cila votes would be Savannah and Emily, so I worry for my fellow finance girl.

I’m obviously not feeling very high on a lot of new era folks, but this is all coming from the cast who called out a lot of them as big threats/targets, even in a cannibalistic way – thankfully more dynamic than just the “old vs. new” theme I worried about. Dee is considered by many the strongest new era winner. I honestly wasn’t that blown away because I think she benefitted from a tight Reba 4 alliance that inexplicably never had too many shots fired its way. Personally, I’d be more afraid of Kenzie or Erika maneuvering their way to another million, but most of this cast seems determined to not let Dee have much wiggle room either.

Dee is one, however, who if given an inch will take a mile. That’s why it’s imperative for anyone afraid of Dee to deal with her immediately. Looking at her starting tribe of Kalo, she has several other players who came within a few jury votes of winning the game – Charlie, Coach, Chrissy, and Mike. Kamilla also has some heat on her for being unanimously praised as the “would have won” player at the 48 Aftershow, so I think Dee has ways she could get out of an early predicament. However, I don’t think she has a way win this game twice.

It’s wild to me that Kamilla is more feared than her friend Kyle whom everyone watched WIN just about a week before flying out for 50, but honestly ... tea. She’s so deadly. She comes off as sweet and innocent, but watching her even with a quieter edit to prop Kyle up on the show, it’s clear she’s a Survivor forced to be reckoned with. She only scored a few more “friends” than Dee, and even Kyle doesn’t want to be tied to her because it will make them both bigger targets.

Like Savannah, I think I’d put Kamilla much higher in rank if her season wasn’t so fresh on everyone’s minds. Kyle may have just won, but Kamilla just almost won which I think has scared everyone into thinking “we can’t let her win this time either.” Kyle’s such an obvious threat that it makes Kamilla ironically seem like an even bigger threat because she’s less obvious being a non-winner. I unfortunately see her being roped right in with Dee on Kalo as two dangerous women that have to go early.

Rounding out the group of players who I consider mostly dead in the water based on pre-game vibes, it makes sense that I’ve got Kyle and Kamilla placed together like they were in 48. It hardly needs any explanation: Kyle is the freshest winner on anyone’s mind and he’s more arguably to me the most dominant winner of the new era – well, next to Gabler. They probably didn’t cast him because they wanted the other 23 to stand a chance.

I kid. But Kyle is no joke. He’s incredibly well-rounded and excels at every aspect of the game. What he has going for him and why I give him a small chance more than Kamilla (and more than the other two winners) is that he’s a potentially big shield for others who can be dropped at any moment. He’ll always be easy to throw on the table so I could see him being kept on the menu for a while, but I think his BEST placement is early merge. Like with Dee and like Kamilla, they’re great players, but it’s just a matter of how much time he’s allowed to stay.

While nearly everyone lumped Savannah and Rizo together, once they hit the beach, I think Rizo will fare better than his fellow 49-er. He’s young, he can play the goofball kid role, and I think those two will make him a little disarming. He may regret the “Rizgod” confessional being literally the only thing the cast saw of him, but I expect him to play that up as a joke and maybe make some inroads.

More than zero, but I don’t give Rizo many odds at running the game like he did previously. A lot of his and Savannah’s success was from fear and mistakes of the players around him. After that first merge vote, he was in a minority of 3 against a majority of 7 who fumbled their numbers advantage so hard. I thought I’d hate Rizo a lot more than I did, so if even I can come around to “he’s okay” then I think he’ll be very likable to this cast. That said, I see him more of a piece or pawn to others rather than so much the strategic leader he was in 49. It’s too soon after 49 and there’s too much still unknown about him from the rest of the cast to let him have that kind of authority again. He’s another one who I could see dropped at any point as a “break glass in case of a clusterfuck vote” when an easy common enemy is needed, which is why I don’t rank him much higher.

I was honestly surprised by mostly the vibe that old school friended each other and foed new era while the new era kids are just as against themselves as they are the older vets (giving me hope that old school won’t be annihilated like in S40: Winners at War). Rick was shockingly more unpopular than I thought he’d be with the cast. I imagine everyone else is skeptical of him because of what they saw on the show. He was entertaining depending on your taste level, but he gave us TV because he was kind of a sneakster and a shit stirrer which the edit spun positively.

Outside of Survivor, Rick is fun, but as a player, I’d want his ass out. He’s going to find idols, he’s going to mess up my plans, and he’s going to take away my airtime – the latter is probably why Coach called him a foe. I didn’t expect Rick to be the most “foe” old schooler, but it makes sense. Most of the people who called Rick a foe, though, are not on his starting Cila tribe (interestingly) so I think he’ll start off okay – we also already know he’s tied to the Billie Eilish Boomerang Idol which is a sequence of words I never thought I’d type, so that will protect him somehow – but Rick may get some bad news come the inevitable swap ... again.

I made Cirie my winner pick with S34: Game Changers, hoping she’d finally get her win but instead she got eliminated in one of the worst ways ever witnessed on the show yet, which Jeff still considers iconic. I will always root for Cirie and I’ll never discount her ability to win over people who are against her, but it’s hard to imagine Cirie overcoming all the obstacles ahead of her in 50. She’s always been a Survivor winner in all but official title, but she does have the title of The Traitors winner, which is nothing to be overlooked here. For better or for worse, everyone’s eyes are on Cirie maybe more than anyone else in this cast.

Cirie landed near the middle of the pack when it came to “friend or foe,” but leaned slightly toward the friend zone. However, that may have more to do with people just having a hard time calling Cirie a “foe” – even some of the “friend” responses mentioned being a friend for now but a foe down the line. I’d rank her lower if she also just wasn’t so fucking good at this game, so I think she’ll last longer than her threat level should otherwise suggest, but I pause on putting her higher for that same reason. Winning would be even harder for her than that balance beam.

Colby’s not even that old, but he’s almost double the age he was when he first played and kind of comes across like the grandpa of the group. Colby has progressively grown less and less in tune with the game each time he’s played, so add all the new era twists and bullshit on top of that and I think Colby’s in for a wild fucking ride in 50. A huge, missed opportunity was casting him with his fellow old school hero, Rupert. Imagine those two stumbling upon a piece of paper saying, “Congratulations you have found the Tom Hanks Didgeridoo of Power! Before any immunity challenge, blow into it and you will be taken to Exile Island which will allow you to skip the next tribal council as well as earn you a chance to play for the Hidden Immunity Volleyball.”

I don’t think it’d take even that much to confuse Colby. Colby will play the oldest of old school games to keep the tribe strong, stay loyal, and get the “good guys” to the end. Unintentionally, this may make him someone that no one has any issue with keeping around for a long time because he’ll be pretty harmless. I just don’t see Colby having the kind of agency or authority in this game that he’ll need to win. It’s sad because I was a big Colby fan in 2001, but I think we’ll just see a case of the game evolving while his approach to it has not.

No one called Stephenie and Colby a duo like they did Savannah and Rizo or Kyle and Kamilla, but a majority of the cast linked these two together in terms of wanting to work with them, and starting on the same tribe, I think these two will grow to become one of the tightest partnerships in the game. While both have the brawn, where Stephenie edges out Colby is the brain. I expect Stephenie to involve herself in more conversations and drive the game rather than let it play out around her like the little laxer Colby.

I rank Stephenie on the lower end of middle because she’s still polarizing. She’s not hugely considered a threat to anyone, but we know Stephenie is an aggressive player hungry to finally get her win. She’s got the physical game still 20+ years later, she knows how to make it to the end, so if she actually delivers socially, she might just pull off the endgame again. I have a hard time seeing her beating many of the players left on this list ahead of her, but maybe she drags two old school-minded brutes like Joe and Colby to Final Tribal Council and talks circles around them because she owns being cutthroat.

Aubry at her peak was a huge name in Survivor, but her lesser performances on her return appearances I think will help her in 50. She wasn’t put into the same category as this cast like Chrissy and Charlie as big threats for almost winning the game even though she’s famous for being one of the most argued over runners-up. My only pause with Aubry is that I just don’t know who she’s going to click with here and she just floats in the middle for me among this list. She favors old school, but several people commented on her giving off an unapproachable vibe at Ponderosa which isn’t good.

Luckily, once they can talk on the beach, that issue should solve itself. Beyond that, I think she’s in a great starting position on Vatu to not take any early heat. I think this game will play heavily into taking out the perceived biggest threats, so Aubry would be wise to try and fade into the background, but it’s a tricky game because a winner can’t play too much in the background. I’m getting a softer and much more chill read of Aubry here – I think she’s going to do well, but I don’t sense her being one of the top dogs to come out of in the end.

When it comes to power rankings, Tiffany is right there in the middle with Aubry for me and it’s because she was probably the most surprising one in the cast. Several in the cast said they had zero read on her – I think it was Colby who didn’t even know who she was when her name was mentioned (probably more of a Colby problem than a Tiffany problem).

I don’t see Tiffany really being the one of the ones in charge of the game, but if I had to go with the safest pick of who will go far, I’d have to go with Tiffany. I liked Tiffany in 46, but of the new era, she wasn’t a huge standout to me. However, here that works superbly to her advantage. A lot of her story and game was tied to Q, so assuming he’s out early, I’m interested to see Tiffany step out into a bigger name of her own. It just feels weird to me to think Tiffany maybe won Survivor 50, but I don’t think anyone expected Amber to win S8: All-Stars, and that’s how this casting pick feels to me – Tiffany could be surprisingly underestimated as a potential winner.

Jonathan, like Tiffany, is another safe pick to go far for me but I don’t see him winning unless he’s in the final three with Colby and Joe (not to put that out in the universe). Everyone wants to work with Jonathan in the pre-merge phase of the game, so I think he’s a lock to survive it, but I could see him going at any vote beyond that. I could also see him being completely overlooked because all he’s known for is his strength, so he’s got makeup to make it to the end, but I don’t think he’ll swing a jury like he can swing a tree trunk.

I do appreciate that Jonathan is an old schooler at heart, and I think he’s got a solid, secure head on his shoulders – smarter strategically than he’s given credit for – but to bring some Traitors lingo into this, I think a “gamer” is going to win and ironically, I think Jonathan will just look weak next to someone a little more strategically savvy if he makes it to final tribal.

I could pretty much copy and paste the above for Joe, but I rank him just ahead of Jonathan because while they’re very similar, I think Jonathan’s a larger praised physical threat, so if both make it to merge and the vote ever does shift to “vote out the challenge beast” I think it’d be Jonathan before Joe.

Joe is so naively friendly toward everyone in this cast – only calling out Savannah and Rizo as potential foes – and I think everyone will pick up on that. While he was a little more backstabby than he’d ever admit on 48, especially with this crew, he’s going to let everyone around him do the dirty work which will get him no blood on his hands but no real merit to his name either. If I had to write out a boot order, I think I’d put Joe at final tribal council finishing in the exact place he did last time, so his odds at talking to the jury again I think are very high, but him convincing them to give him the win is debatable.

Starting with Angelina, everyone knows her as the meme queen – Natalie’s jacket is the funniest fucking thing in at least the last 20 seasons. I think she’s seen as dangerous because no one takes her seriously, but it’s been several years since her first season. She’s a mom now, and having watched herself play, I fully feel as though she’s going to come into this as an Angelina 2.0 who surprises a lot of people.

Once she’s allowed to talk to people, I think they’re going to realize “oh, she’s not a complete wackadoodle,” especially when she’s got Q next to her being Q. Colby will have a hard time getting over her, but I could see Angelina, Aubry, and Genevieve connecting on Vatu with maybe Stephenie as another mom who will bring a begrudging Colby into the fold. Angelina is my darkest horse to win, but she has it in her. This could be a major growth arc for her, and she’d be able to sell that well in front of a jury. If the Survivor gods are generous, Angelina will win Survivor 50, but I wouldn’t bet my favorite jacket on it.

Genevieve has some heat for being such a ferocious, emotionless force on 47, but like Angelina, once people can get close to her on the beach, I think she’s going to suck them in for the long haul. I want an old schooler to win just because that’s “my” era, but Genevieve would be the new era player who I’d most be satisfied winning 50 because she’s just such a fun player to watch.

Yes, everyone considers her a threat, but a few months ago, I just watched Parvati powerhouse her way to a second win on Australian Survivor, and while Parv had a lot of other big names to distract from her threat level a bit, it showed that a major threat can still win. Genevieve had a quieter start on 47, and if she does the same in such a way where she can immediately lessen her threat level, then I think she’s a strong contender to win. Genevieve is just so smart that at any sign of danger, she’ll know what to do to avoid it.

I was also surprised to see Charlie’s name come up “foe” as many times as it did. I went into 46 ready to be the conductor of the Charlie hate train with all the Spencer vibes he was giving me (Charlie may be the reason Spencer isn’t on 50 too), but I found myself surprisingly rooting for him on his run – I just was rooting for Kenzie more so I was happy with how that one ended. Unfortunately for Charlie, a lot considered that loss a “rob” so he’s coming into 50 considered practically a previous winner.

Why I rank Charlie so high and someone more like Kamilla low is that Charlie just gives calmer vibes. He’s still working with a little of that boyish charm and while people are eying him as a threat, once they get a chance to talk and hang out with Charlie, I think those feelings will dissolve. I don’t recall Charlie ever being flustered, so he’s going to be seen as a sturdy and reliable ally. He’s looking for another Maria, and I could see him finding that in Chrissy on the Kalo tribe. It may be a little on the nose, but if Charlie can just get Chrissy to vote for him on a jury, that could be the one vote needs this time to win.

I love and adore Chrissy, and if I was playing, I’d also be a Charlie seeking her out as my #1. A lot of players have this perception of her being a bit cold and calculated, but she’s sweeter and bubblier than a lot of what we saw on the show. Watching Chrissy play and playing with Chrissy I think are very different experiences so I’m hoping she can flip a lot of these “foes” to friends early in the game.

The new era hates women of a certain age, but she’s starting on a tribe with the two oldest men, Coach and Mike, and Chrissy herself has challenge beast status, so I think she’s going to be able to break that new era mom mold. She’s scary on paper, but again, I think face-to-face, she’s far less intimidating. She’ll have her moments where her name comes up, but she’s incredibly intelligent and she’ll be able to push a target off her back with the help of allies she’s made through a strong social game. Chrissy is a strong winner pick for me – she has everything a Survivor needs to win. I only don’t rank her higher because a lot of the players know that already.

With Mike, will it just be kissing ass for a guest appearance on The White Lotus? Who knows, but whether it is or isn’t, it all bodes well for Mike. In retrospect, what a wonderfully different timeline we’d be living had Mike won S37: David vs. Goliath, but a David sitting next to two Goliaths at the end of that season was just too cheesy of a victory to not grant. In this cast, most of the players are Goliaths so Mike won’t have to worry about that again.

Mike is also extremely intelligent and despite him being the oldest in the cast, he’s proven to get along with players of all ages and archetypes. I could very much see Mike steering the ship for a lot of this game. His hurdle will be endgame where he has to get himself to final tribal council probably without winning immunity. A tree branch nearly took him out near the end last time, so I’m not banking on him going on a challenge run, but maybe someone will think since he lost to a jury once, he can do it again, but I think if he’s sitting there, that’s not happening.

For the record, Mike would be a foe for me because he flew Natalie Cole all the way to Thailand only to allow her lines to be edited out of her scripted TV debut episode. For that alone, I hope he doesn’t win 50.

Christian is a literal genius, but it sounds like it’s forgiven because he’s such a big, fun, goofy character, and often those big personalities don’t have the biggest brains. For as cerebral as he is, he’s also incredibly kind and compassionate. In a very cutthroat cast like this, that’s going to resonate. Yes, he’s a threat in his own right, but he’s someone most people in this cast want to keep close, and once they share a beach with him, that sentiment is only going to grow.

Like Mike, Christian will have to dodge some bullets at the end of the game, but depending on who he’s there with, that could apply to everyone who makes the finale. This game is so fast paced now that people want a fast thinker like Christian next to them. I could see him getting cut close to the end, but if he makes it to the end, he’s going to be tough to beat. Imagine Joe vs. Christian at final tribal – a David vs. a Goliath in speech giving. They’d be there until dawn and that’d only get them past Christian’s opening statement.

I can’t believe I have Ozzy at #3 and in even greater disbelief, I’m kind of here for it? Ozzy has always been that laid back surfer bro, but with age, I think his cockiness has worn off. He seems to have grown up a lot seems more aware of his social surroundings. He’s most remembered as a challenge beast, but he only came 1 vote away from winning his first time and with each time he’s played, while he didn’t place as well, he picked up more of the social and strategic games to make him a very well-rounded player.

Ozzy will surely still soar in challenges, but with his age, he’s not in his prime like Jonathan, so Ozzy won’t be such the obvious challenge threat to eliminate (if people even care at all anymore). However, Ozzy could still be overlooked as just a challenge beast, but he’s someone who most people want to work with and if he can get to the end, he’d have a great 5-season story to wrap up. I don’t think I’d be afraid to take Ozzy to the end, and if that’s what everyone else thinks, that could be his ticket, and they could be in for a big surprise by a very different Ozzy at his second final tribal council.

It’s also insane to me how in love with Coach everyone is. I think I’d consider him otherwise the most polarizing player in all of Survivor history. You either love Coach or you hate Coach. There can’t be anyone who just thinks he’s just flat. I hated him at first, but I grew to love him and appreciate him as one of the most iconic characters of all time. I’m thrilled he’s back. The new era needs this boost of personality back in the game.

That said, we’re coming up on 20 years since Coach 1.0. He’s grown a lot, and the last time he played, he almost won. The only reason he didn’t is because he didn’t know how to own his game, and he knows that now. Coach knows how to lead an alliance to the end, and so many in this cast are big fans of Coach. He’s still Coach, so there’s still an element that isn’t taken too seriously which his great for him when people are looking at who to take to the end. If I was on that jury, “Coach winning Survivor 50” would have a nice ring to it – the dragonslayer finally slaying the biggest dragon after almost two decades.

The BEST story, though, in Survivor 50 would have to be Jenna Lewis winning. On paper, someone who played in S1: Borneo in their early 20s to come all this way to 50 and beat out everyone who played the game after the oldest of OGs would be the coolest story of all time. That’s my only major worry for Jenna. If she’s at the final four without immunity and assuming the fans correctly voted to get rid of forced fire-making, does anyone take her to the end? I’m not totally sure, but if they do, this game is hers.

Jenna was beloved in Borneo but she was kind of a bully in S8: All-Stars – responsible too for making that season so rough, with all the Romber enablement, not to mention voting out Tina and Rudy first. While Jenna has matured a lot, and I love that it sounds like she’s kept up with the show so she’s studied its evolution into the new era, I don’t think a little of that “edge” coming back out would be a bad thing for her. If she plays a little aggressively or ruffled some feathers, that could make her more of an appealing opponent to go up against. Jenna seems a fun, lovely, vibrant woman but she’s ready to see some blood. More than anyone else, I’m excited to see Jenna play, and most people in the cast feel the same, so I think she’s someone that is going to go very far.

It may be a little too optimistic to place her at #1 going into the season, but if there’s something that can really reawaken the Survivor fire in me that the new era has put out, it’d be someone from the 1st season of Survivor winning the 50th, so I’m going to try and manifest that for her and for all of us.

Like a relic from Ghost Island, Ryan's an old school TDT blogger who took a break in the middle of the new era but is back for Survivor 50 by popular demand...or at least Jeff Pitman's. For more #Survivor commentary, follow on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/ryankaiser.bsky.social