I don’t know where Jonathan goes from here; he is the only person in the game now that didn’t vote for Coach & Chrissy. He just has Stephenie left at his side since Joe proved to not be the unbreakably honorable and loyal ally (I get why Joe changed his vote, but he’ll find a way to spin it so it doesn’t look like he betrayed Coach exactly). Despite picking Christian as his dynamic duo mate, we haven’t seen Jonathan make any connections outside of the Coach core, so he seems like the big, obvious target unless he’s immune.

Jonathan started off the game well and seemed to have a sturdy head on his shoulders, but he let himself develop a blind spot with Coach and get dragged down with the Dragonslayer. His only hope now is Obi-Wan – oops, I mean his only hope is to be used as muscle by either Cirie/Ozzy/Rizo or Christian/Rick/Emily for one to make the first move against the other. If not, Jonathan’s now an easy vote to keep the most peace at camp.

Stephenie is forcefully paired with Jonathan as another unfortunate player who made their bed with Coach. This next episode, Stephenie’s promised to slit everyone’s throats but I can’t see her coming through on that. She’s one step ahead of Jonathan due to pre-game history with Cirie and pre-merge history with Christian, making her the more likely candidate to picked up as a vote by either, but I don’t see a way for her to gain any momentum, so at best she’ll be dragged deeper in the game to be used as a vote until she’s no longer of use.

That said, I’m excited to see Stephenie out for blood. A void has been left by Coach and we need a new villain to fill it – I’m hoping that even if she spirals out fast, we see her aggressive fighter side from S10: Palau and S11: Guatemala. Call people out; tear down the camp; torch it (just don’t burn Cirie, please). If she gets scared like she did with the vote and goes out quietly, then I’ll be disappointed.

Joe literally got the teacher from Charlie Brown edit at tribal council as if he could be any less irrelevant this season. He made a new alliance with Tiffany because ... she was there. Then he tried to push a Rick/Aubry vote which was essentially met with, “Shut up, Joe.” This man has no shot at winning this game but I still think he’ll get dragged to the end as a big dummy.

His whole “won’t vote for Coach on principle” shtick quickly cracked when it came time to put pen to paper, so I don’t know what he thinks his game is anymore. Ride it out the end with Tiffany? Get out Rick and Aubry or die trying? Joe will at best continue as pawn to be persuaded or, at worst, an obstacle to be removed. I think Joe thinks he’s playing a solid game, however, so I hope the edit leans a little into the delusion – perhaps one thing he picked up from Coach.

Joe and Tiffany benefited big time by winning immunity together, or I fear their names would have been a very easy two to write down, or at least would’ve been a closer second choice to Chrissy/Coach. To Tiffany’s credit, she’s trying all that she can to recover from losing her two closest allies, Kamilla and Dee, in back-to-back votes. Unfortunately, all the sides are just too established. Cirie/Ozzy/Rizo are one; Christian/Rick/Emily/Aubry are two; Jonathan/Stephenie/Joe are three, and despite what we saw this episode between her and Joe, it’d be a terrible idea for Tiffany to side with the latter.

Tiffany needs to pivot and distance herself from Joe and find safety in one of the other two factions. She could successfully ride that middle for a bit, but eventually I do think Tiffany will end up a consensus type of vote to avoid something bloodier once maybe Jonathan and Stephenie are gone. I appreciate the fight Tiff in recent weeks, but the numbers are just never going to align for her to take over this game.

My favorite Rick move ever (to be fair, the list is short) was the way he set up and secured that “idol” at tribal council. I’ll give a nod to Stephenie for being smart enough to ask to see it, but given how unprecedented that was on US Survivor, what a time in the season to put on such a spectacle. I have no notes, for that played out as perfectly as Rick could have hoped – he had the numbers already to stay (only flipping Stephenie and Joe with the scare), but that sealed the deal in protecting both himself and Aubry.

Unfortunately, with every big move comes a big target and we heard a lot this episode from folks starting to target Rick over his history of idol antics, so this latest may set him down the path to a sooner departure. He and Aubry took some heat as a dangerous duo and I don’t expect that to die. Rick should be safe for a couple more rounds, but this one established him for me as the first target when inevitably the votes come after the nerd cluster, so Rick sadly fell a few spots for me even for as fun as he was this episode (and has been this season). He better hope he finds a real idol fast.

Her name came up as a potential vote, but Aubry still feels like the “middlest of the middle” that I dubbed her as last week. While tied to Rick this episode, I think she’ll be able to distance herself a little if he comes under fire as an idol whisperer threat. It was quick, but she also mentioned Cirie potentially being a key player for getting herself to the end, so it’s possible she may later jump ship from one side of Cila to the other and be a part of Rick (and Christian’s) demise.

Aubry has been consistently present though without making a major name for herself, and I keep saying that needs to happen in order for her to win, so if the next episodes are easy Jonathan/Stephenie boots, then what Aubry does after that will make or break her game. She has some of the foundation for end-game relationships but if she gets to the end, she’ll need to have driven more of the game than the current passenger type of play. Being a deciding vote in a Rick/Christian takedown would certainly be that driving move.

Emily’s in about the same spot as Aubry but a little more secure in my mind given what we saw this episode in votes being aimed at Rick and Aubry, labeling them as dangerous. Much like Aubry, Emily needs to branch out and not just settle for an endgame scenario with Christian and Rick. I have to think she knows this but we haven’t heard her speak on it yet which makes me wonder that if it does happen, will she instigate or will she just fall in line with someone else’s plan? She was the biggest advocate of the Coach and Chrissy vote, at least, but she needed Cirie to come in and secure the final few votes needed for her.

Special shoutout to Emily for also delivering the best laugh out loud moment of the episode – Rizo could hardly contain himself and had to send some loving parting words to his “hero” Coach Wade as he walked the walk of shame. Emily, however, didn’t share the exact same sentiment.

She couldn’t eye roll hard enough, thinking, “Did he really just give that corny ass goodbye?”

Ozzy’s in an exceptional spot in the game and spoke on being aware that he, Cirie, and Rizo are the true middle people in Manulevu. Ozzy is definitely looking to be a strong endgame contender, and he’s always been close to the top for me, so I struggle coming up with many scenarios where he’s in much danger. If the polycule gets targeted, I’d expect Cirie and Rizo to be the first votes for being bigger social/strategic threats, and if they instead run the rest of the game, then he’s sitting in front of the jury, easily.

My only worry with Ozzy, then, is Cirie. Will this older, more mature Ozzy have the heart to stab his closest ally in the back before final three like he needs to, or will his old school mind make a boneheaded move to make him the Colby to Cirie’s Tina? If Ozzy can stick with Cirie and be her co-pilot driving the plane, cut her or let her be cut at the end, then he could have a great narrative which Cirie could back up as his champion on the jury.

Cirie would beat both Ozzy and Rizo in a final three, and while we see more strategy from Rizo, I think the story Ozzy could tell at the end would (more narrowly) get him the win over just Rizo. Ozzy’s always talking about learning and growing from the past, and he healed his old wounds with Coach, so I could see a story coming together of healing and finally getting his shit together enough to be the Sole Survivor after 20 years of trying.

The mighty #1 of mine finally falls – not too far, but I’m starting to see the game slip from Christian/Rick/Emily more in favor of Cirie/Ozzy/Rizo. Christian at least has managed to prop Rick up as the ringleader so if the nerds end up as one side of the coming Cila war, he might escape being the first vote, but as soon as Rick goes, Christian will be in major danger.

Christian has taken his foot of the gas a little (as was needed) while still maintaining a pulse on the game. I’m curious what his plan will be now that Coach is gone, as it’d behoove Christian to probably pick up the leftovers of Jonathan and Stephenie before they get scooped up by Cirie and Ozzy, but will he? I’m sure he’s someone who doesn’t sleep at night and instead runs every scenario through his head, so surely he sees the danger in Cirie/Ozzy/Rizo together, but it’s going to come down to timing of which alliance makes the first move against the other that will decide which will be the ultimate victor. It could flip back, but right now, I think it will be Team Cirie.

That’s the face of anyone trying to have a strategic conversation with Joe.

Rizo continues to prove that if you’re good with Cirie, then you’re good for me. Rizo is on an impressive run and his current closest alliance with Cirie and Ozzy are running the show. Rizo has done a great job at building relationships with everyone in the game and has gotten at least shared credit in the votes, so there’s really nothing negative about Rizo at the moment – he could very well be on path to the end of the game with the one person coming after him (Chrissy) now out of the game.

While I have him near the top of the rankings, this might be just me, but I cannot envision Rizo actually winning Survivor 50. Cirie, Rick, and Christian he’d definitely be dead against. Ozzy on paper seems like a potential opponent, but with that, I’d wonder if any old school nostalgia would play a factor in jury votes going to Ozzy over Rizo – thinking that this is Ozzy’s last time while Rizo has more Survivor in his future. Rizo needs to get to the end with a combo of Joe, Jonathan, Tiffany, or maybe Emily. Those are several good options, but given who he’s working with right now, that’s tough to see. It does suck that something out of his control (like when he was born) could hurt his chances at winning, but that’s just my gut feeling. Him winning at least would suck less than I would have said it would several weeks ago.

Y’all ... I’m really starting to see it now! Cirie winning Survivor 50! The way she came back from Exile and completely ran the tribe like a boot camp to ensure Coach and Chrissy left instead of Rick and Aubry – like putty in her hands. She’s just so good at convincing people to vote the way she wants them to vote.

Final four still scares me for Cirie, but fuck it, I’m feeling in my gut that she works her magic there whether it be a vote or fire-making. Ozzy seems deeply devoted to her, so that’s one vote in her favor. If I think Joe’s the final three goat, then he could easily be manipulated not to target Cirie and instead see maybe Rizo as a bigger jury threat. Rizo is sharp and knows Cirie would likely be a big L for him in front of a jury, but maybe she convinces Rizgod to go up against herself to show that he, too, is a legend unafraid of taking on a Survivor titan like Cirie. If he truly believes his own hype, then he may just think he can beat anyone, but no one is beating Cirie if she gets there. Just let me live in my delulu era with her as my #1 pick to win this game at the moment.

Like a relic from Ghost Island, Ryan's an old school TDT blogger who took a break in the middle of the new era but is back for Survivor 50 by popular demand...or at least Jeff Pitman's. For more #Survivor commentary, follow on Bluesky: @ryankaiser.bsky.social