I take one week off, and I come back with FIVE more players eliminated from the game. This is about the pace I expected for 50 and unfortunately also about the level of twists I figured to see taking out some favorites. For me, the Blood Moon was a bust. Maybe had they leaned into the Zelda bit (thanks, Tiffany) and invited the booted players back to wreak havoc, I’d have been more into it myself, but as the legend of Survivor goes – exciting idea, lackluster execution.
If we are going to merge the tribes at 17, just actually merge. While the beach would’ve felt bloated, we’d have seen a much more chaotic and fluid scramble ahead of tribal than what we got. If this was going to be a swap merely masked as a merge, why not just formally swap one more time and then merge at 14? If the show wanted to work in Exile Island, this would’ve been a perfect opportunity to swap into two tribes of eight and send one player to Exile like in the old days. Tribes of eight are so much more dynamic than tribes of five. Jeff insists that on smaller tribes there is “no room to hide” but I argue that there is “no room to play.”
Two of the tribes especially felt completely stagnant in strategy with the way the numbers fell, and maybe the result would have been the same, but I’d have preferred giving players like Genevieve and Colby a whole day and a half to find their footing after an unfortunate rock draw instead of, what, one afternoon? With limited time to talk between the immunity challenge and tribal council for these fresh new “tribes,” the end of the episode felt like a foregone conclusion the second after the division happened. “Swap-screwed” technically doesn’t apply since Jeff wouldn’t consider this as a swap, so just “screwed” is what I’ll call it.
My hope that this next week we can course-correct with an authentic merge episode, but it sucks to lose three players who were excelling. It’s been two weeks since I’ve talked power rankings, and I lost some higher ranked players since then, so let’s get into how I think things will go for the new Manulevu (I guess we finally ran out of names so now we’re just recycling two from the 30s).
I don’t think Joe is the next to go – the opposite, rather. He could be positioned for final three…as the goat. So, that is why I’m putting him dead last. His only memorable moment of the season has been his mental breakdown over people talking game. Since then, he’s simmered down, and he’s found a comfortable place in Coach and company’s alliance but other than that, he’s just floating.
Unsurprisingly, we don’t see Joe talking game as much as we do game being talked at him. It was sad seeing Genevieve realize her closest ally on the beach was Joe, and even he cast his vote for her. We didn’t see him give any insight into this or talk with Christian, Rick, or Aubry, so I’m left to assume he was just clued in last minute. I expect that to be the status quo for Joe the rest of the game – driving nothing and being told which direction to go. It may earn him a seat at the end but not a vote.
Was this her villain origin story episode? I appreciate the editors hearing the fans after the backlash from Zac Brown having more talk time than Tiffany this season and based on her visibility spike, I thought she was for sure a goner. While that wasn’t the case, Tiffany’s future in the game still looks turbulent.
The main tease of Episode 7 was her and Dee beefing with Jonathan over his betrayal to vote out Kamilla. At this point, Tiffany is only left with Dee as an ally and Aubry who also doesn’t have many other friends, so I fear that Tiffany could be an easy merge boot for having the least number of ties left in the game. What Tiffany may have going for her is that she’s the smallest threat by name alone, so if the logic is “bigger fish to fry” then Tiffany could escape the next immediate vote, but it’s tough to imagine Tiffany coming out on top over everyone. She’ll put in more effort than Joe to steer the game her way, but I’m doubtful of how successful she’ll be. The screentime spike this episode could just be setup for her to be booted in the next.
Close to the same number of allies as Tiffany – maybe even worse – is Stephenie. She started off so well but has now lost her entire original alliance of 4, since swapping she’s been to every tribal council, and now I don’t really know where she stands. She doesn’t have beef with anyone and vice versa which is why I consider her slightly safer than Tiff, but I don’t see this being the Guatemala Stephenie’s game where she commands it to the end.
Stephenie’s been a part of more voting blocks than she has alliances. She’ll stick to the old schoolers but isn’t really “in” with any of them from what I can tell. She’s voted with Christian, Ozzy, and Emily; she’s now voted with Jonathan and Chrissy, but I don’t see any of them necessarily protecting Stephenie. I could see Steph either being an earlier boot that’s an easy consensus vote or optimistically a late gamer but one without a major list of moves on the resume. The immunity necklace this episode will probably end up her biggest win of the season.
THE EPIC CONCLUSION OF AUBRY VS. GENEVIEVE!!!
…or was it? This was the climax Aubry’s story was building to, and in the end, she slayed her big dragon yet didn’t really get the glory edit. That feels damning for her future in the game. We saw more from the perspective of Christian and Rick debating whether to vote for a risky Genevieve or safer Joe. If Aubry were to take charge of this game from here, then this should’ve been her huge breakout episode. Then again, we know the show has come under fire by women on this season for favoring the edits of men, so it could easily be just another example of that.
Aubry also told Christian she would play the idol so that she wouldn’t have to worry about surviving the Blood Moon. When she didn’t, Christian shot her this ominous if not threatening look:
Does this strike as a selfish move against Christian? Aubry playing the idol wouldn’t have made it boomerang back to him, but I wonder now if her holding on to it makes it fair game for Christian to take it away from her by other means – means that would transfer it from Aubry’s pocket to his own. Aubry’s short of allies, so her biggest savior would be Christian’s alliance, but if Christian now has motive to take Aubry out, then her odds still aren’t looking good even with her biggest adversary out of the game. This entire season, it’s been Christian getting what he wants, and he wants that idol out of Aubry’s possession.
Not sure if it was just a little liquid courage from the Applebee’s Shark Bowl but Chrissy’s fangs came out finally after waiting for weeks – the smiling assassin. She played the “I understand it’s my time to go” defeatist act so perfectly as if she was Caryn Groedel herself out there. Not only did Chrissy dodge a torch snuff, but she successfully deflected the heat onto Jonathan who’s consider now the “villain” behind the Kamilla vote.
While a victor in that vote, Chrissy has a long way to climb if she wants to win this game. Her closest ally I assume is still Coach (TBD if Jonathan and Stephenie are “forever” or “for now” allies) who looks to be unraveling a little, so I worry how that could impact Chrissy and if she could be another “no major loss to anyone” vote. I feel like the “nerd” alliance is going to take over (Christian, Rick, Emily with their outer circle of Cirie, Ozzy, and Rizo) so Chrissy’s best move would be to hop on board and start geeking out with Christian and Emily. At best, though, that still puts her more in the passenger’s seat than the driver’s, but Chrissy has been at risk this entire time, so while we know she wants her foot on the gas, it would benefit her to let others crash out over the next few rounds.
Since my last write-up, Dee’s survived a tribal council without her name coming up and narratively drove the Colby vote, so she’s come a long way from being a total goner I had her pegged as at the beginning. Losing Kamilla, however, could be where her game starts to crumble. Old Kalo is broken over this, and I’m not so sure that she and Rizo will be as close after he’s warmed up to Cirie and spent alone time with Ozzy at Exile Island. In theory, that “poly relationship” could open a fourth spot to Dee, though that seems complicated. But, hey, it’s 2026.
While arguing with Jonathan next episode is justified, it looks public which will negatively impact both Dee and Jonathan’s games. It may even come to a point of those two going after each other with the vote. A smart player, however, could capitalize on that by keeping them both in the game to use as shields. Dee had an easy week, but the true merge episode will be more telling of where she stands. She seems to have more options than the others I have below her on my list, but she needs to gather up all those allies and form a majority alliance fast or else fall into that same “easy consensus vote” category.
Now that the tribes have merged, Jonathan has no further usefulness for challenges, and coming off a vote where he was guaranteed to piss off one side or another adds to his drop in social standing. It was no huge surprise to me that Jonathan chose the old school side over his own new era friends, and I do think that decision earned him more numbers, but the Blood Moon left his hands covered in blood and it could be hard for him to wash that off completely.
While some revenge votes could be coming his way, Jonathan has indeed proven to be a more evolved player who’s thinking more strategically this time around, and while he fits right in with the “honor and integrity” crowd, he recognizes that winning requires more than that. I’m most curious to see how, if at all, Jonathan fits into Christian’s game as the Christian coalition will still be the one to watch. Maybe those brains will employ Jonathan as the muscle to help keep immunity away from the opposition, so Jonathan’s physical prowess I suppose could still be used as a weapon for some time. I don’t think he’s as doomed as Kamilla’s parting request to drag him through the mud would suggest, but he has damage control to do.
I loved the immunity challenge for its callback to Coach’s “Martyr Approach” episode of S18: Tocantins – an all-time classic. Coach has been all over the place for me. Just when I think he’s setting himself up for a top spot, he puts his foot in his mouth by saying something he shouldn’t – he just can’t help himself.
Despite the declaration of war in the next episode, I think Coach is okay for now. Losing Genevieve and especially Colby is a major blow to the Tidewalker’s troops (RIP Oaken Warrior), but he still has some in good standing. Chrissy, Joe, and Jonathan should all stay loyal, and Rizo’s boyish enthusiasm to play with Coach could be an unexpected ally. I consider Coach and Christian’s the leaders of the two factions that I expect to drive the second half of this game, and with the numbers now, Christian might be ahead, but Coach isn’t completely out of it.
Unfortunately, Coach could accidentally target the players who he instead should scoop up as additional warriors to defend against Christian’s crew. Emily clocked Coach’s game too in the aspect of playing up being less aware of his actions than he already is, but Coach needs to act fast in finding new friends or else end up the “lame duck” he called Colby.
Maybe my favorite highlight of a messy episode was Emily suggesting they vote out Coach because Colby was a high medevac risk, so they could get rid of two birds with one stone. That is the kind of cold-blooded Survivor strategic thinking that makes me so glad Emily “I don’t give a fuck” Flippen was cast on this season. Colby also confirmed in his exit press that her assessment was accurate – he was a day away from being pulled for an infection in his foot.
I realize this could be a big if, but if Emily can keep herself from spilling secrets, then she should be relatively safe in this merge. She’s tight with Rick and Christian, she spent the swap getting closer with Ozzy who brings in his new polycule of Cirie and Rizo – that’s a solid 6 in a tribe of 14 which is huge considering that the other 8 are nowhere near besties with each other. Emily should be set up to go deep, and even if this “alliance” comes under attack, she shouldn’t be the first name written down. Emily’s challenge, then, will be outplaying the other 5 so that she has a stronger case in front of a jury. Right now, Christian looks to be the biggest jury threat, so to win this game, Emily will eventually need to cut her #1. She’s smart enough to know to do it, but the trick will be when.
Look at that legend.
I’ll finally admit, in the last two weeks, Rizo’s done well for himself. I wish he’d shut up about wanting to be a Survivor legend and show us rather than tell us why he is, but he’s going to have plenty of more rounds to play. I don’t consider the Charlie vote to be especially legendary, but he seems to have a sharp read on where needs to go post-merge.
Ozzy and Cirie will be key to his game in working him into the fold of what essentially is the original Cila tribe reuniting. I felt like his “alliance” with the women on Cila 2.0 was temporary at best, so while he could pick up with Dee, I don’t know that he’ll need to and he definitely doesn’t need to stick his neck out for her. Like Emily, Rizo should be safe because I think he’s done enough to avoid being a target as this season’s unknown – he’s played up his superfan persona which also softens him. Down the line, though, I think Rizo will try to make a big move that probably is a little too big and will backfire, but for now, I’d count Rizo among one of the least at risk of being voted out soon.
The way this woman never loses her cool – she just sits back, observes, and subtly nudges the game the direction she wants it to go.
Cirie’s old school, but she’s got the new era kids eating out of her hands too. She also spoke about the differences between the two schools of thought and that made Cirie stand out as someone who understands the importance of their balance in this 50th season. Cirie had a rough start with her name coming up Day 1, but since then, she’s proven again and again why she is a master at this game.
Dee was painted as the decision maker between Coach vs. Colby, but Cirie was the one who convinced Dee and Emily to vote out Colby instead of Coach, recognizing that Colby was a stronger glue of the honesty alliance even if physically weakened. I think Cirie’s locked into the endgame at this point; she’s survived the toughest part for her demographic in getting to the merge, and while Coach and Christian may be the leaders of their respective camps, Cirie has been quietly masterminding and puppeteering the tribal councils she’s attended without anyone taking notice.
There’s always the chance everyone wakes up and realizes sooner that she’s the biggest threat, but for the first time, I can see a path for Cirie to get to the end and win. I still worry about final immunity being her big hurdle and her ending up in that tragic final juror seat once again, but if she can reach final four and convince two people that the third is the bigger jury threat (someone like Christian) then I can see Cirie finally being rewarded with what she first sought after 20 years ago.
Ozzy went on a side quest this episode which ended up being an incredible advantage – searching the jungle for a scroll that grants immunity from three simultaneous tribal councils? Talk about a game changer! (Let’s not actually talk about S34: Game Changers.)
While out of the loop on the rest of the events of the episode, Ozzy established reconnection with Cirie and by poly proxy the young Padawan, Rizo. Ozzy’s gotten a lot of attention this season, but I’m still waiting for his big stamp on it; however, I’m starting to see the setup of maybe another story. His relationship with Cirie is going to pick back up in the narrative, and I could see a scenario where if this old Cila alliance either cracks or gets crushed, players like Christian and Rick are going to be the likely first targets, and if Cirie’s then eliminated for her masterful Survivor skillset, maybe all of this leads to the master Jedi passing on her wisdom to Ozzy to take it home for her.
Because of his history, Ozzy will always be seen as a lesser strategic and social threat than many of these other players, so he’s another one slated to stay until the end. He just needs to get off exile – literally and figuratively – and force himself into the mix by making moves. At the opposite end, a lot of players are going to play themselves out of the game, so Ozzy must find the happy medium.
The boys are back in town – or back in the hammock. It’s not quite crystal clear who’s in charge of the merged tribe since it doesn’t really exist yet, but based on all the relationships (positive and negative), Rick and Christian seemed to hold the most power. They are back with five original Cilas who seem committed to each other (the only shaky ground being between Christian and Ozzy who’ve to ease off each other) and each bring a couple of new friends into the fold – Rizo, Aubry, and maybe Stephenie if she has any interest in continuing to work with Christian. That’s a huge group and a powerful one if they can hold strong.
Rick’s name did get raised this week by Genevieve who pointed out to Christian that he and Rick were already eyed as a duo, but we’ve seen duos succeed in this game, so this isn’t an immediate death sentence. Rick would be wise, though, to try and branch out from Christian even if they remain each other’s #1s. Rick has two big risks in otherwise remaining so loyal to Christian. 1) They could be targeted in a split vote which could mean bad things for Rick if Christian gets his boomerang idol back, and 2) if they make it to final three together, I think Christian beats Rick. Therefore, Rick will need to break from Christian at some point if he wants to win this game. I could see risk #1 being Rick’s fate, as inevitably the tribe will try to split them, but for now, Rick and Christian are running the show.
It’d honestly be shocking if Christian plays this entire season from the top and soars all the way to the title of Sole Survivor, and while of course plenty of us are probably expecting his comeuppance, Christian currently seems secure in numbers. This next week with the real merge will be more telling since the past week was another one where he was leading only a small tribe on which he had immunity to boot so his name was never on the table.
If this Cila army can seal the deal, then I can see a path to the end for Christian. He’s already tried to prop up Rick as the ringleader by letting everyone believe Rick gave the boomerang idol to Aubry, so that could be his plan – paint Rick as the one to beat so all attention is on him at the endgame and not Christian. It’s a little hard to imagine Christian at final five or four and not being the target, but he’s also proven to be capable of winning immunity. The winner is not usually so prominently in our faces, but I’ve speculated if the show would dare dupe us this bad by building him up so much only to pull the rug out from under him at the end. As I’ve been saying about Christian, this season would be the one to give us a “surprise” in that the surprise is the obvious outcome happening.
Now on to the “screwed.”
Kamilla I may consider the least screwed of the three boots, but I’d still have rather seen her try and navigate a 17-person vote than a 5-person vote. With more room to play, she may have just played herself out of this spot. In the last episode, we saw Kamilla in a critical swing position and unfortunately with the rock draw, she ended up with the person she needed to swing her way after she had just swung against him. Oops.
I stand by my pre-season assessment that Kamilla would have been better off coming back not immediately after 48 to give time for her threat level to shrink, but I’m glad the show saw something more in her than just Kyle’s wingman. I hope we still get enough fieriness from this cast because Kamilla’s fire will be a major loss.
What in the actual fuck?
This entire season has been about how Genevieve’s game has evolved, and no other time in Survivor history has someone found two hidden immunity idols without the ability to play either of them. Genevieve’s boot feels like such a robbery, arguably one of the biggest of all time. She drew a rock that randomly left her with her archrival Aubry and two people she’d never talked to, Rick and Christian, who had a pre-existing tie to Aubry – then she had only a couple of hours to move mountains to move the vote off of her. What else could she have done? Painted Joe as a big threat? Please.
Genevieve’s story just feels incomplete and while it makes sense that one of Genevieve and Aubry would “get” the other one ... it didn’t really feel earned for Aubry. I’m just left with a sour taste over this with someone who was emerging as a superstar new era legend cut short by a bullshit twist. If I’ve learned anything from this, it’s that I should not have any deep investment in the players left because I don’t think this will be the last boot entirely out of someone’s control this season.
Colby may have had a little more room than Genevieve to argue between himself and Coach, but his boot also feels like a rob because he had done such an incredible job up to this shake-up to build himself an army of allies – something that no prior Colby had really done. I was excited to finally see him insert himself into strategy and try to drive the game, yet this was another example of Survivor growth truncated by a twist.
As a fan that’s been there since the beginning of the show, I do appreciate it giving this man a proper, powerful send-off the way they did. For anyone who found the show after S2: The Australian Outback, I don’t think they could fathom the level of cultural phenomenon Survivor was in 2000/2001. There’s the running joke that women named their babies after Colby but that’s how serious of an impact he and the show had at the time, so this boot not only struck emotionally as a farewell to a 25-year fan favorite but also as an in memoriam to all the true trailblazers of the game. I almost feel inspired to go back and re-binge those early seasons now to reminisce.
BUT, instead, we’ll move forward to what I hope is a real merge episode. If we’re in for more split tribals, then I don’t know how I’m supposed to write-up these rankings every week if the game is just going to flip back and forth with random rock draws. Oh my heck.
Like a relic from Ghost Island, Ryan's an old school TDT blogger who took a break in the middle of the new era but is back for Survivor 50 by popular demand...or at least Jeff Pitman's. For more #Survivor commentary, follow on Bluesky: @ryankaiser.bsky.social