Tiffany looks more and more secure with Cirie, and Joe ended up being the blabber to ruin the surprise Ozzy vote, so he too may have more loyalty to Cirie’s side which puts Emily in the most danger if they try to come after Rick. Thanks to his new real idol, Emily is set up as a prime Rick-ochet vote. Even with Tiffany, Joe, and an extra vote, Cirie’s side can’t cleanly split the votes, so they’d still have to rely on Jonathan or Aubry to accomplish that.

Given Jonathan’s “you’re full of it” remark toward Emily, he likely wouldn’t be that opposed to joining a Rick/Emily split either even if it’d be better for him to break up Cirie and Ozzy like he tried to do this episode. I’m curious about the big move Aubry’s talking about in the teaser, but another big scramble could easily land back on Rick and Emily, and since Emily’s the one without the idol, she’s the most at risk.

This is the best Rick has ever looked. His back was against the wall once again like it was in S38: Edge of Extinction, and knowing that, he brought the unhinged energy an episode needs to be exciting. Imagine a scenario where the tribe had to draw rocks to decide who would flip the coin, that person flips the wrong side, and they go home without a vote. That would’ve been an absolutely bullshit ending for one of these people, so thankfully Rick had the balls of steel to volunteer and spare us from that nightmare scenario. Why did the show even leave room for that outcome? The answer, always: Jeff is an idiot.

With the bold play, Rick earned himself an idol, and I don’t expect him to take it home as a souvenir, so he should be safe for at least the next vote (if he can hold onto it for longer – bravo). However, once it’s out of the game, Rick will follow. With eyes already on him for playing wildly with a fake idol, his target will only grow having a real one in his bag. Imagining him getting all the way to final three after this spectacle seems impossible – I won’t count him entirely out because he’s sort of been down this road before, but I can’t see everyone letting him run it again.

I love how much Joe hates Rick. I can certainly relate, but given how much of a boring buzzkill Joe has been this season, his loathing for Rick has ironically made me love Rick. Joe keeps trying to get him out and it just never works, so Joe keeps getting forced into voting out his friends. Rick and Joe’s is by far the funniest relationship/rivalry of the season.

I’m still out on Joe having any shot of winning, but he did show some loyalty to Cirie and company while also being keyed into information from the opposition against Ozzy, so Joe still is looking safe with everyone having bigger fish to fry. It’s hard to imagine him agreeing to work with any alliance that includes Rick, so if it comes down to Cirie/Ozzy vs. Rick/Emily as the vote, Joe seems like an easy vote against Rick and Emily. If Joe’s destiny in this game is to just get Cirie to the end and win, then I’ll forgive the questionable choice to cast him.

Honestly the most impressive move of the night was Tiffany’s flex of her forearm strength to win the immunity challenge in that particular position. That was insane.

Like Joe, Tiffany is another one now safely in the middle despite a rough start to the merge. I say “middle” only because she’s not in the core of either side of the tribe, but also like Joe, Tiffany looks to have more loyalty to Cirie than the Rick/Emily side. There’s still the connection with Aubry that we haven’t circled back to, which could come into play, and while being a swing vote here could make the next vote a move Tiffany could claim at the end, I worry for her that whichever way she goes, the ones that “win” her over will be the ones to win the game. I.e. Cirie or Aubry claim the social relationship as the reason they got Tiffany on their side rather than Tiffany positioning herself to have all the power.

I’m still enjoying Tiffany and while she rightfully sat back and watched a little with immunity around her neck, I expect she’s got plenty of fight left in her to hopefully keep the energy up in the home stretch we’re entering.

Jonathan’s tried to have a more active game this time around, but his wins/losses have been a rollercoaster: blindsided at his first tribal council with Charlie, successfully enacted revenge on Kamilla and Dee, lost his #1 Coach, was part of the Christian ouster, then lost his other #1 or #2 Stephenie. After the most recent L, he might be due for a W and with him pushing for Rick this episode, I expect he’ll at least start there in the next.

He could also stay on Ozzy, but if he doesn’t think he has Joe in on that, then I could see it falling apart once again. I do see a way, though, for Jonathan to get to the end and maybe even win if he plays the rest of this game correctly with this budding relationship with Aubry. They could pull of a big move against Ozzy/Cirie or do Rick/Emily first and then scoop up Tiffany/Joe to take out the trio. Jonathan has three locked jury votes at the moment, and that’s more than anyone else has which starts him off at final tribal council well. That could also be a reason to take Jonathan out at any time between now and final four which is likelier once everyone starts tallying up jury votes.

Is Rizo alive or is he being CGI’d into the show? He’s been such a prominent player and suddenly has gone ghost the last two weeks. Exit press has revealed he was pretty sick out there, probably due to playing back-to-back seasons, so maybe just hasn’t given the cameras anything to work with for a few days.

That’s not the optimal look to be cooling down as the game comes to a close. He got a brief word in last episode to keep the vote on Christian, but I don’t remember even seeing his face during this episode’s major scramble outside of a quick moment with Jonathan filling him in on some plan. On the contrary, Aubry’s story is one of heating up, so with Rizo on cooldown, he’s slipping for me. A Survivor legend is not one who starts to have lazy days toward the end.

Survivor is a weird game that can make people cry over a bowl of mac and cheese.

This was Aubry’s strongest episode yet with a lot of story and emotional content – a major new storyline as well with a tie-in to Michele winning over her in S32: Kaoh Rong. I may just be the biggest skeptic, and Aubry’s in a much better position now than she has been, but I’m not convinced this late bloomer story will be a winning one. Yes, Aubry’s rising in the ranks and she’s looking to finally act on that big move she’s been promising us for weeks now, but it has to be BIG in all caps to stand out.

Rick is at high risk of not even reaching three, and Emily, Joe, and Tiffany won’t have the jury support, but everyone else will be a tough opponent for Aubry. With the resume she has now, she’d lose to all of Cirie, Ozzy, Rizo, and even Jonathan but of the other five in the game, she has the most pieces to play with to change that especially if she gets credit for flipping the game against Cirie and her polycule.

The irony of Michele’s win being so controversial to fans to then be the winning strategy for Aubry on her fourth attempt (i.e. lay low and make a big move at the end) would be ... something. I have always supported Michele’s win and her being able to reach the end twice cements her as a top-tier player, so I’d be curious to see how those who were outraged over Aubry losing would change their tune now if Aubry wins using Michele’s playbook. On paper, Aubry is starting to tick all the boxes, but it feels “too little too late” for me. I’m feeling my #1 and #2 picks much more.

“Ah shit, here we go again having to save Ozzy.”

As soon as Cirie was told Stephenie was coming for Ozzy, and then Cirie by proxy, Cirie knew that Stephenie would serve no further benefit to her game, and Cirie successfully convinced everyone to get on board. Once again, it was another week of people running to Cirie in her hammock of power to fill her in on the gossip so that she could come up with the plan.

I really feel confident that Cirie is either the winner or the final boot of this season. I want so hard to believe that she’s going to win, but there are so many logical reasons why she can’t survive at final four. We’re not sure yet (I think) whether it’s automatic fire or a vote, and we know her unfortunate history with fire-making, but even with a vote, she may only have Ozzy’s support which would get her, at best, a tie to result in…fire-making.

I thought before she could somehow snow enough people (Ozzy and Joe being the likely suspects) to vote someone else out at four, but her name coming up again this episode as a real possibility for the vote made me feel less confident to keep her as my #1. It’s still Cirie or Ozzy for me, but Ozzy has an idol in case of any immediate threat, and he’s more of a shoe-in for Day 26 if he can make it to Day 25. Cirie has shown us every step of the way she’s still a master at manipulation and maneuvering, so I feel good about her but less great than I have been with this next week being one I expect to see Ozzy’s name come up again, and since he has an idol, that immediately brings Cirie’s up too.

Ozzy set up Cirie for my favorite exchange of the episode with when he asked her if she was sure she wanted to use the extra vote this round, and she quickly snapped back with, “You wanna go home?” Cirie is definitely the alpha of this alliance, but if she’s once again the fallen angel of the season right at the end, it’d make sense for Ozzy to go on and win the glory in her name.

Even Jonathan acknowledged this week that Ozzy has changed his game and is now more “intellectual” and “cerebral” – big words to describe Ozzy from what we’ve seen in his past. I wasn’t sure anyone else saw it besides Ozzy, this “Oscar” persona, but that was validation to me that Ozzy has been successful in changing the perception of him. With that compliment from Jonathan, that could also mean not just a vote but possibly a champion on the jury if Jonathan’s sitting on it with Ozzy sitting in the final three.

I want to believe Cirie’s winning this season, but if it’s not her, I’d be most satisfied then with it being her protégé. Cirie has more of the tools to win if she makes it to the end, but Ozzy has more of the tools to get there. I’m probably going to go back and forth on these two the rest of the season – and I hope I do because it means they’re both still in contention.

Like a relic from Ghost Island, Ryan's an old school TDT blogger who took a break in the middle of the new era but is back for Survivor 50 by popular demand...or at least Jeff Pitman's. For more #Survivor commentary, follow on Bluesky: @ryankaiser.bsky.social