It happens every season. It happens so much it becomes predictable. Somebody gets themselves under immediate suspicion by disappearing from the tribe and hunting for an Idol.

You can understand why it happens, too. On a very basic level, it causes resentment. While the others are working on necessities like fire, food, water and shelter, the Idol hunter sends a message: “I’m not gonna do my share of the work.” Also, at the very start of the game, players will go with ANY reason to put the target on someone, whether or not there’s any real concern. It’s an instant way to make your tribemates consider removing you. We’ve already seen this happen to Sai and Star. Last season, it was Rome and Gabe. In 46 it was Venus and Ben, 45 it was Sifu and Katurah.

I file this under the category of “Playing too hard, too fast.” But this isn’t the only way to get yourself into early trouble. There are many ways to play too hard, too fast. This week, I thought I’d take a look at some of the way-too-aggressive players in Survivor history.

Boston Rob Mariano (Marquesas)

Boston Rob has never changed his strategy from his rookie season. He clearly stated the plan he’d use every time he played when he said in confessional “It’s important for me to have people on my team that are gonna do what I tell them to do and not know that I’m tellin’ them to do it. It doesn’t matter if my team is stronger physically, or even stronger mentally. Just that they obey.” Rob prioritized control over Challenge wins. So even after his tribe lost the first two Immunity Challenges, Rob took dead aim at Hunter – the player his tribe really was listening to, and their best athlete. He got rid of Hunter, but suffered immediate blowback when Rob found himself on the wrong side of a swap.

Despite being in a 5-3 hole, Rob still lusted for control. Instead of trying to work his way into a majority, Rob tried to take over. First, he aggressively confronted Gabe, trying to intimidate him into defecting. Then he confronted opposing alliance leader John. John was put off by Rob’s aggressiveness and lies, and got Rob voted out first at the merge. Rob reached the finals in All-Stars, but his aggressive, confrontational style angered too many jurors who gave the win to Amber. Rob did the same thing in Heroes vs Villains, confronting and threatening Russell (“It’s better to play with me than against me.”) Russell promptly flipped two of Rob’s allies, including Jerri, who remembered the abrasive way Rob treated her in All-Stars. Then Russell removed Rob. Boston Rob got a win in Redemption Island with all kinds of “unofficial help” from Producers but got himself booted pre-merge again in Winners at War by trying to forbid his tribe from having private conversations.

The lesson: Don’t be a control freak.

Roger Sexton (The Amazon)

In the first Men vs Women season, Roger went straight after “leader’ status by chastising those he thought weren’t working hard enough and threatening them with being voted out as part of his power grab. In one exchange on day 7, Roger asked Daniel to get water. Daniel said he would, but apparently didn’t move fast enough for Roger, who then said “Forget it, I’ll do it myself. This prompted Daniel to tell Matt he was sick of being ordered around by Roger. Rob Cesternino picked up on the growing resentment towards Roger. He and his then-partner Deena led the push to boot Roger at the merge. Much like Boston Rob, Roger’s need for control ended up spelling his doom.

The lesson: Don’t give orders.

Nicole Delma (Pearl Islands)

Nicole’s Survivor season is a classic case of “don’t rock the boat.” When Andrew Savage took the “leader” role (at Nicole’s suggestion), Nicole could have easily kept her head down and appeared to be cooperative while manipulating his decisions in the shadows. After losing Immunity, Savage wanted to boot either Lill or Ryan S. because of their weak challenge performances. But that’s not what Nicole wanted. Nicole disliked Tijuana’s temper, so she asked Lill to vote for Tijuana. Lill relayed the request to Savage, who relayed it to Tijuana, and just like that Nicole was under suspicion. When Nicole’s partner Darrah learned of the plan, she got upset with Nicole for not clueing her in sooner. Tijuana confronted Nicole in front of Darrah. Nicole denied trying to switch the vote, but nobody believed her. Even Darrah didn’t trust Nicole anymore, and Nicole ended up getting voted out first overall. Had Nicole simply kept her mouth shut and gone along with Savage’s plan, she’d have stuck around. Nicole made an unnecessary move that not only cost her the trust of her closest ally but got her voted out instead.

The lesson: Don’t try to flip the vote if the person leaving isn’t in your alliance anyway.

Jolanda Jones (Palau)

Jolanda was aggressive from the moment she got on the boat. When the players were told two Immunity necklaces (one for men and one for women) could be found on shore, Jolanda stood up and switched places with others at least two times jockeying for position. Then she outran Jenn to reach the women’s necklace. The players weren’t assigned to tribes yet but were told to build a camp. In the DVD commentary, Tom said Jolanda learned he was a Firefighter and asked him to work on making fire. Then later, when she saw him working on the shelter, she knocked something out of his hand and said “I thought I told you to work on the fire.” Tom was put off immediately. When she realized her high heel shoes wouldn’t work in the jungle, she yelled “Do we have a strong man here?” Jeff responded and she handed him her shoes and a machete and said “Are you Hercules? Chop off these heels.” Jeff was put off faster than Tom was.

But her fatal move came in the first Immunity Challenge. Tribes were given the option of carrying one or all four heavy items (a fire making kit, two water jugs, a bag of rice and a tarp) through an obstacle course that included a wall to climb over, a swamp pit. The winner would get all the items they chose to carry. Tom told his tribe to only take the fire making kit, but Jolanda insisted her tribe take everything. Jolanda’s tribe got blown out, mostly because they couldn’t get their supplies past the obstacles. She paid the price when she was voted out first.

The lesson: Leave the water jugs behind.

Sylvia Kwan (Fiji)

Like in Palau, the 19 players weren’t divided into tribes but were told to build a camp on the first day. Sylvia stepped up and announced she was an architect, so she could direct the shelter building effort. This prompted Alex to publicly appoint her the “leader,” a role she embraced. Sylvia got on people’s nerves by giving orders and micromanaging. She was surprised when Probst told her she’d be dividing the tribes and then would go to Exile Island where she’d get a clue to an Idol, then join whichever tribe lost the first Immunity Challenge. She ended up on the “Have-nots” Ravu tribe that didn’t get to use the camp everyone built on day 1. But despite missing out on a full day of bonding while on Exile, Sylvia remained pushy, prompting Michelle to say, “Sylvia is too bossy.” Anthony and Rita agreed that things were better before Syliva joined their tribe. Sylvia took a beating at Tribal Council with Rocky, Anthony and Yau-Man all mentioning how pushy she was. She survived that first vote but was booted at the next one. Simply letting someone else step up to be leader on day 1 might have given Sylvia a much longer Survivor life.

The lesson: Don’t be the leader.

Dave Cruser (China)

Dave knew how to make an impression ... a bad one. While the tribe was building their shelter, Dave let loose of a loud fart, prompting complaints from 3 of the 4 women. None of them chose to align with him. At Tribal Council, Probst asked if anyone wanted to be leader. Dave’s hand shot up and he said “We don’t have time to mess around. I didn’t want to take this position at all, but if I don’t kick someone in the butt to do something, I don’t know what’s gonna happen. But I will step up to get this tribe together, then focus on the challenges.” Dave got the “leader” title, but watched his tribe ignore his request to vote Ashley out. Nobody cared what Dave wanted. In confessional, Erik said “Dave has a lot of good ideas, but if someone else has an idea, there’s still a sense that he’s gonna go with his idea ... Dave isn’t a good leader.” Dave exhausted himself working in camp, ignoring his tribe’s requests to save some strength for challenges. He ignored their requests and gassed out in a challenge. So when his tribe lost the third of four Immunity Challenges, they voted Dave out. Dave pushed his agenda way too hard.

The lesson: Do what the majority wants ... and don’t fart around the women.

Ace Gordon (Gabon)

Ace seemed to think he was smarter than the rest of his tribemates. The problem here was the rest of the tribe knew he felt that way because he was very condescending. Like Sylvia, Ace started off on the wrong foot by giving orders on how to improve their hut shelter. Ace unintentionally showed his strategic cards when he suggested his tribe throw a Reward challenge because the pillows and blankets weren’t worth the effort. Then he insisted their smallest member Paloma participate in the tough physical challenge. This alarmed Corinne, Jacquie and Bob who suspected Ace was protecting his partner, the annoying Sugar. When the players were told to pick new tribes in a schoolyard pick, Ace pushed hard for Kenny to pick Bob. But Kenny got suspicious of Ace and chose Kelly instead. Ace lasted a few votes and even fooled Matty into thinking he was a loyal partner. But even the naïve Matty eventually saw through Ace’s lies. Kenny convinced Sugar that Ace was using her and she helped vote him out when she stopped trusting him too.

The lesson: Don’t be pushy about Reward Challenges.

Tom Westman (Heroes vs Villains)

Tom’s “My way or the highway” style served him well in Palau in part because the opposing Ulong tribe couldn’t win an Immunity Challenge. This gave Tom plenty of time to cement the alliances and relationships, which he rode to a win. But when returning for Heroes vs Villains, he didn’t adjust to playing with smarter, more experienced players. To be fair, Tom started at a disadvantage because he hadn’t networked much in the Survivor community since he won, and didn’t know most of the players. He was also placed on the same tribe as Stephenie from his first season, and most suspected they’d be an instant power couple. Just the same, Tom announced on day 1 “I don’t think anybody would stick with their game plan if it didn’t work the first time around.” This told everyone Tom was going to play the same game. They knew he’d stick with Stephenie, and several prioritized breaking them up. They survived one vote intact, but the next Immunity Challenge was one JT had done before. Tom suggested they all let JT lead them. Then Tom started barking orders, making it hard to hear JT. Stephenie followed Tom’s lead and did the same thing, which infuriated James. Stephenie left next. Tom found an Idol and saved himself (resulting in Cirie’s exit), but that’s where his luck ended. While Tom’s aggressiveness wasn’t the direct result of his loss here, it definitely played a huge part in weakening his initial alliance.

The lesson: If you tell people to listen to JT, listen to JT.

Christine Shields-Markoski (South Pacific)

South Pacific was the fourth season (after Guatemala, Micronesia and Redemption Island) to mix returning players with rookies, and all of them aired before the South Pacific cast started filming. So, when Christine saw Ozzy and Coach walking out on day 1, she should have known those two would have an advantage in experience, player/fan worship and in “unofficial” assistance from Producers. So, it made absolutely zero sense for her to say, “While it’s nice to see them, they’re both temporary players.” That turned Coach and Ozzy against her immediately. Then while the tribe was building the shelter, Christine said “I’m gonna go look for firewood,” and disappeared. Albert immediately told everyone Christine was Idol hunting, and Coach put a permanent target on her back. She found an Idol clue, but not the Idol and was the first one sent to Exile. She won a few duels to stick around but was eventually eliminated by Ozzy, who remembered her statement. There just wasn’t any good reason to call someone out in the first few minutes. Christine thought she was putting a target on Coach, but she ended her game before she could start it.

The lesson: Don’t target the star players on day 1. (Or at least be subtle about it.)

Brad Culpepper (Blood vs Water)

Brad didn’t play too hard too fast as much as playing too honest too fast. This season gathered pairs of loved ones in the cast – 10 returning players and 10 of their family members. Brad played with his wife Monica. They were all shocked to find out the returning players would oppose their loved ones on the other tribe. Brad made the mistake of telling Probst he’d consider throwing a Reward Challenge if it meant Monica could get a tarp. This angered several on his tribe and really set the tone for his downfall. Brad didn’t realize Probst should be treated like an enemy, trying to trip you up into making a mistake. Brad created several other reasons for players to want him out but failing to lie to Probst effectively ended his game before it began. Nobody ever fully trusted Brad after this statement.

The lesson: Don’t let Probst fool you into exposing your strategy.

Shirin Oskooi and Max Dawson (Worlds Apart)

Max & Shirin put a new spin on the “Too hard, too fast” concept. They were more “too superfan, too fast.” On day 4, Max casually announced “I’m going for a swim,’ stripped naked and walked off. Shirin soon followed suit by walking around bottomless. Max said in confessional “I’m tipping my cap to past Survivor greats (aka Richard Hatch).” Max and Shirin bonded over their shared Survivor geekdom and would have endless conversations discussing Survivor trivia. This not only separated them as a power couple, it annoyed their tribemates. Carolyn said ““Max, are you kidding me!!! Max & Shirin are too close. She does whatever he does. They’re both a 10 on the crazy scale.” Tyler said “What frustrates me is that Shirin is getting more confident the longer she’s here. Good for her for feeling free around camp, but not good for anybody else. It’s distracting and difficult to deal with.” Without a doubt, Max and Shirin’s inability to control their superfan geekiness put them both in a can’t win position. Max only survived one Tribal Council. Shirin lasted longer because of her goat status and finished 8th.

The lesson: Don’t be the biggest Superfan

David Wright (Millennials vs Gen X)

I was originally gonna write about Rachel Ako because she was so initially confrontational and bragged about her ability to solve puzzles and didn’t come through, even refusing to swap out once. But then I realized a better example was someone who started off horribly and made a great adjustment. David was the epitome of nervous, neurotic fear and paranoia. He winced as others chopped bamboo. He accused Ken and Paul of hiding an Idol. Then he bounced from player to player, proclaiming “I trust you.” This backfired when Bret told Chris “He’s a little paranoid and it makes me nervous.” Then David blatantly searched for an Idol, prompting Jessica to say in confessional “David was out madly looking for an Idol while we were building the shelter, and that upset a lot of people. If he has an Idol it would complicate things. So, if we lose, it’s gonna be David.”

David and Rachel volunteered to do a puzzle and both sucked at it. But unlike Rachel, David agreed to swap out as soon as Jessica asked him while Rachel waited. That may have saved David as Rachel was booted first. David got the message and calmed down. He won a little favor by making the tribe’s first fire. Then he found an Idol, which gave him more confidence. I’ve often said Cochran made the best rookie to returning player adjustment when he played in Caramoan. David made the same adjustment in two days after nearly getting voted out first. David made it to the final 4 as the favorite to win the game.

The lesson: Don’t be the first one on the puzzle.

Domenick Abbate (Ghost Island)

You might wonder why I’m including someone who came within one vote of winning the game as playing too hard too fast. Much like David, Domenick did adjust his game a little, but he never really learned how to stop creating problems for himself. That’s what ultimately cost him the win. On day 1, Chris Noble volunteered to be the tribe’s “leader” and run a challenge to win fishing gear and shelter building supplies. A twist allowed the leader to sacrifice the building supplies if he thought his duo would lose the challenge. Chris took that option, keeping some fishing gear. Domenick immediately spoke up to criticize Chris’ decision. That ignited a Domenick vs Chris battle that lasted into the merge. Winning that battle kept Domenick in the game but didn’t help him win it. He continued to be confrontational down the stretch. Much like he alienated Chris, Domenick did the same to jurors Sebastian, Donathan, Kellyn and Chelsea, who all voted for Wendell to win.

The lesson: Don’t publicly call somebody out. Do it in the shadows.

Molly Byman (Island of the Idols)

Molly wasn’t quite as aggressive as most on this list. She was very perceptive and wasn’t shy about sharing her observations. She was the first to notice Jason was gone for long stretches and made sure everyone suspected he was Idol hunting. She was quick to join an alliance with Tommy, Dan, Kellee, Lauren and Jack, but didn’t stand out as it’s leader ... to any of the men. However, her tribe’s women were on to her. Noura labeled Molly as lazy, but everyone wrote off the quirky Noura and didn’t take her seriously. Lauren however, had everyone’s respect. So, while Molly was trying to convince the men to remove Noura, Lauren targeted Molly, saying in confessional “Hey Molly, I’m watching you like a friggin’ hawk, and I know your game. I’m not gonna sit there and let your game play me. I’m gonna play you. The biggest threat right now is Molly. Why get out the people like Noura and Jason when I can use them, and I don’t have to be a sheep, be herded and told what to do?” Tommy summed it up perfectly in his confessional, saying “I do think it’s a little too early to make this move, but they’re petrified of Molly ... I’m so torn because they feel Molly has too much power.” As it turns out, the women thought Molly was playing too hard with the men, and it cost her. She was blindsided and voted out first from her tribe.

The lesson: Don’t piss off the women.

Rocksroy Bailey (Survivor 42)

Rocksroy did what most older Alpha male types to. He appointed himself the “Leader” and gave orders on how to set up camp. In confessional, Zach said “Rocksroy has taken on the most leader-like role through 40 odd seasons that I have ever seen. And in a new era of Survivor, it paints a huge target on your back right out of the gate.” Tori said “Drea comes up with this idea of getting out Rocksroy. It’s a really good idea because he helped us with the shelter. We don’t need him anymore.” Rocksroy had no idea his pushy attitude put a target on his back. He lasted into the merge, probably because several saw him more as a finals goat than a threat. But his aggressive actions in the first few days guaranteed he’d have no shot at winning.

The lesson: See Sylvia Kwan’s lesson.

Maddy Pomilla (Survivor 44)

Maddy was doing a good job of blending into the middle of everything. She avoided doing the “Sweat” challenge, nudging Brandon and Matt G. into doing it. But when she and Brandon were alone in the jungle he found the key to the mysterious birdcage. She caught a glimpse of him hiding it and flashed a suspicious side eye. He came clean about finding it and suggested they tell everyone else. That’s when Maddy made her mistake. She tried to talk him out of it and suggested they keep it to themselves. Instead of taking advantage of the position of knowing who has the Advantage, she tried to force an alliance with him. That cost her an ally as Brandon confirmed in confessional, saying “I do want to keep it a secret, but the fact that Maddy wanted to keep it a secret made me super nervous. I just knew I can’t trust Maddy.”

This one is a tough call because having a partner who can keep a secret is invaluable. But once Brandon said he wanted to tell the others, Maddy should have gone with the flow. Then she’d have the option of leaking the secret to others as a means of earning their trust. Brandon found the Idol and everyone knew it. That’s when Maddy made another mistake. She pushed for others to vote him out, labeling him the leader by calling him “The Godfather” and “Kingpin.” Maddy thought she had a majority primed to blindside Brandon, then watched in horror as Jaime and Matt G. each played their Shot in the Dark. They’d both promised to vote for Brandon. Maddy looked even more sick when Brandon played his Idol. Maddy ended up getting voted out with only one vote cast against her…by Brandon. Maddy learned the hard way that trying to line up votes against someone when everyone knows they have an Idol can backfire.

The lesson: Go with the flow.

Kevin learned Maddy’s lesson last week.

I have one note from my rewatch of last week’s episode. When the tribes did the number game (whoever throws the lowest unique number will go) to see who’d go on the Journey, I originally thought it was totally random. But then I realized if you wanted to go, you’d probably throw a 1 or 2. If you didn’t want to go, you’d throw a 5. Mary was on the bottom and had nothing to lose, so it figured she’d throw a low number. Sai wanted to prevent Mary from going, so she’d throw low too. But for everyone else, it was interesting to see what they did.

For Lagi and Civa, David, Chrissy, and Kyle all threw a 5. Shauhin threw a 4. They didn’t want to go. Joe and Mitch threw a 2, Thomas, Kamilla and Charity threw a 1. Eva threw a 3, so maybe she was undecided? In pregame, Chrissy said she’d go all out to get an Advantage, so I wonder what changed her mind?

Vula had 2 rounds. Cedrek threw a 5 and 4, Justin threw a 3 and 4. Kevin threw a 2 twice. Mary threw a 2 and 1. We didn’t see what Sai threw the 2nd time, but the first time she threw a 1.

To me, this means, Sai, Mary, Kevin, Joe, Mitch, Thomas, Kamilla and Charity are the “Too hard, too fast” candidates this season.

Will Sai’s aggressive play back up on her this week? Will someone else on Civa start playing too hard? Will Star’s desire to remove Eva backfire? Will Eva get booted by targeting an Idol holder? Will Thomas asking Shauhin to “just lose” Star’s puzzle guide cause Shauhin to remove Thomas for being too sneaky? Will I ever write a longer intro than this one? Let’s find out.

And away we go ...

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Mary is playing like she’s got nothing to lose, which is probably a good thing. She knows she’s not in control and doesn’t have to worry about who is lying to her because they’re all lying. Most of those who play with a little fear don’t get very cocky or overconfident.

Sai: “I shouldn’t have had to use my Idol.” You wouldn’t have had to use it if you never told anyone you had it in the first place. That’s the reason Kevin went after you.

I believe David when he talks about his less than impressive home life. But talking about it with these players might make them suspect he’s angling for sympathy. “I’m playing so I can start a family” is a good reason to play. But it’s also a good reason to vote him out if they think he’s sincere. That speech might have served him better once the Jury phase began.

Getting all this non-strategic content about Civa confirms my suspicion that they’re not gonna lose anyone before the merge. But Lagi might throw a challenge to remove Star.

Joe uses some of the nails from the Tool Kit they won to build a bonfire? He might regret that decision when they have to build a new merge shelter.

Damn, Bianca hit Thomas pretty good with that pole last week. A scar like his is a good way to catch out-of-sequence editing. If we see a confessional from Thomas in which his eye is totally healed, we’ll know that confessional was recorded long after day 6. The opposite is true too. If his eye is healed while he’s in the game, but he still has that scar in confessional, we’ll know Producers pulled a Natalie White. Her “I think I can beat Russell because…” confessional was recorded after the merge on day 34 but was shown as part of the day 9 episode. Many viewers thought she knew what she was doing much better than she actually did because of that confessional.

Shauhin has the most accurate read on his tribe’s dynamics. If they go to Tribal Council, he might be the decision maker.

Wow, Star isn’t even there for the bonfire? Star is pretty bad at this game.

Thomas doesn’t like how close Joe and Eva are. Neither does Shauhin. Check out the side eye he’s flashing to Thomas.

Sai to Mary: “We should stick together.” Mary doesn’t buy it.

Sai: “I do drink a lot of water. That’s why I can survive off of not drinking a lot of water.” Sai what???

So, Sai tries to order Cedrek and Justin to take their turn watching Mary. Like I said last week, Sai thinks Cedrek and Justin are working FOR her, not WITH her.

Mary should change her name to Ben Driebergen or Boston Rob. That way, Idols would find her whenever she needed one.

Mitch in confessional “We’re firing on all cylinders, everyone’s clicking as a tribe.” Mitch sounds like he thinks Survivor is a team game. Mitch is wrong.

Charity is a little late to the “We should form an alliance” party.

So is Mitch.

Kyle knows he’s in the middle of two pairs. He should be thinking of a cover story to tell one of them after he chooses to stick with the other. If his cover story sucks, too many people know he has an Idol. They might already be planning on how to separate him from it.

And Eva is late to the “I don’t want Star to want to work against me” party too. But she came up with a great way to see if Star would lie to her.

Then Star does the right thing by using Eva’s pitch to turn Bianca and Thomas against Eva. Bianca is buying it too. Maybe Star does have some game.

Thomas knows Star is a wild card he won’t be able to control. That’s actually a great reason to get rid of Star in the short run BEFORE she gets that Idol. But he wants to help her get it? Oh wait, I forgot. Thomas didn’t get to see how much damage Andy did to his tribe last season.

A blindfold challenge. The spotlight role is being the caller. If I’m a guy, I’m stuffing a bunch of leaves down the front of my pants ... just in case.

Shauhin, Cedrek and Kamilla are the callers with all the pressure. I think Cedrek’s voice is too soft for this. Mary’s voice is louder, and you know she’d try her best because she’s on the bottom.

Wow, Joe scoped out that course before he put the blindfold on.

Cedrek: “Sai, to your left!” He should know that pointing won’t do Sai any good.

Sai hears “To your left” and goes to her right? Cedrek should say, “To your other left.”

Cedrek: "Sai, turn to 9:00!" Sai’s clock is upside down. She turns to 3:00. Justin points. Uhh, Justin, she’s blindfolded.

After taking one “in a spot he’ll remember” as Probst put it, David wisely walks sideways.

Shauhin to Joe: “Watch the pole!” Uhh Shauhin, he’s blindfolded.

Damn, Shauhin destroyed that puzzle. I thought Thomas and Bianca were Lagi’s puzzle masters. Has Shauhin been sandbagging his puzzle talent? I think so.

Cedrek is doing a better job on the puzzle than Kamilla, but the lead she had was too much to overcome.

Hmm ... Shauhin moved out of the way so Thomas could take the Idol from Probst. I wonder why he did that?

Bianca is going on a Journey and her tribe chooses Justin and Kamilla to go with her. Kamilla wanted to go last time, and Justin didn’t want to go. If I’m on Lagi, I ask for a volunteer first. That way, I can identify the aggressive player. (Side note – dammit, I didn’t note what number Bianca threw last week. Now I have to go back and check). Ok I’ve checked. Bianca threw a 2. She wanted to go. She probably asked for the trip this time.

Mary is gonna bluff that she’s got an Idol. She should have tried that last week. And it’s working because now Sai wants to put a vote on Justin.

Cedrek doesn’t think Mary has anything, but Sai won’t listen to him. This is why Sai isn’t a good alliance partner. She is too “My way or the highway.” She is pretty much ordering him to vote for Justin.

These three get the same sign the last three got. I wonder if it will be the same puzzle?

Nope. This game is total random chance. This really sucks for Justin. He has absolutely no say in how his game will be affected. His fate is determined by a literal roll of the dice. Sorry Probst, that’s not Survivor to me.

Kamilla gets an Extra Vote. Bianca and Justin lose their votes. As Mike White would say, this isn’t fun to watch.

Kamilla thinks her tribe is too damn honest. That’s the perfect time to lie to them. But by telling them the truth, if someone wants to turn on her, she just gave them more incentive.

Bianca lies about losing her vote but comes clean to Thomas. Will he do the same thing with her? Nope. He keeps his mouth shut about his Advantage. Thomas played it smarter.

Thomas’ eye is a little more healed in this confessional. I wonder how long after Day 7 was this confessional recorded?

Justin comes up with a plausible lie, which might actually keep him safe. But now they think he’s got his vote.

I like the way Justin and Thomas played this. They know Survivor is an individual game from day 1.

Cedrek tells Justin that Sai is gonna vote for him. Last week he told Sai the truth and turned on Kevin. Does that mean he’s turning on Sai this week? Cedrek is too honest for this game. In my pregame column, I said “Cedrek struck me as soft spoken and humble. He won’t get into fights, but I wonder if he’s got what it takes to blindside someone while keeping his cover. I fear he’ll feel too guilty about it. He’s the type who might warn someone they’re being targeted.” He has warned someone twice now.

Last vote, Cedrek told Sai the truth, and she doesn’t believe him this time? And now she thinks Mary is gonna tell her the truth? Sai is really bad at this game.

We might actually get a three-way tie. What happens then? Cedrek will know Justin lied to him about having a vote. Will he turn on Justin? Mary and Sai will probably still vote for each other, which would make it Cedrek’s decision. It’s only 9:05. A tie vote and extended negotiation seems certain.

I hope Mary’s bluff works. If she’d tried it last week, Kevin might still be around.

Sai vs Mary is a little like Rachel vs Genevieve last season. But Rachel and Genevieve were both better players ... so far.

Once again, I have no idea who is leaving. Neither does Sai.

Mary plays her Shot in the Dark, so that means there are only two votes in the Urn.

Mary’s safe!

Probst: “One vote left.” Cedrek’s face: “Say what?”

Only Cedrek and Sai can vote in the revote. Goodbye Justin. That really sucks for him.

Why take a commercial break now? It’s only 9:15! The decision is obvious. We could have gotten a little more from Lagi or Civa.

Wow, Cedrek voted for Sai and there’s another tie! It’s all on Cedrek now. I was totally wrong. This is a no-brainer for Cedrek now. He just wrote Sai’s name down. She’ll never trust him again. In fact, as soon as they returned from the last Tribal Council, she said “We have to rebuild trust now.”

Another tie! What happens now? Cedrek can’t pick one rock.

Cedrek takes the urn, and Sai can’t believe it.

Another tie! Sai’s reaction should confirm for Cedrek that she won’t have his back anymore.

An official deadlock. Probst says normally, the tribe would have an open discussion, then go to rocks. Does Probst expect Cedrek to negotiate with himself? Is Cedrek actually thinking of keeping Sai? She just told you how much you just hurt her. Sai is so clearly an emotional player who can’t be depended on.

Cedrek: “I make my decision with this stipulation ...” Justin knows he’s a goner.

Cedrek thinks Mary and Sai can get along? If I’m Mary, I immediately say this won’t work. Justin might work with her. Sai never will. If I’m Justin, I say the same thing. I throw Sai under the bus with everything I’ve got.

Cedrek keeps Sai, and Justin is totally screwed. Cedrek made a horrible call. Sai will NEVER forget Cedrek wrote her name down twice.

This was a Survivor first. My head is spinning.

In Justin’s Exit Comments, he says “I flew too close to the sun.” I disagree completely. I can’t see what he did wrong that was fatal. He didn’t want to go on a Journey, he didn’t have a choice to play the game, and he didn’t really have a choice but to bluff about having a vote. I said I didn’t like his decision to cut Kevin loose, but I can’t say that was a fatal decision even in hindsight. Who could have seen this coming?

In hindsight, it appears that Justin lying to Cedrek is why Cedrek voted him out. I don’t know about that because Cedrek wrote Sai’s name down twice. His gut told him to side with Justin. I think I can reasonably conclude Cedrek is too indecisive to win this game.

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Recap

What the fuck?

No, seriously, what the fuck?

The only positive I can see coming out of this is the possibility that I could finally see the “frenemies” strategy come into play. But for that to work, Mary and Sai would have to convince the other two tribes they don’t like each other first. That would take a lot of convincing acting. I think Mary could do it, but Sai doesn’t have a prayer.

Since I can’t make heads or tails of what happened on Vula, I’ll limit my questions to Lagi and Civa. Do you like how Thomas is playing? Is he turning into a Villain, or wisely keeping his head down by keeping his mouth shut? Who might leave first on Lagi, even if it doesn’t happen until the merge? Did Kamilla do the right thing by being honest about her Extra Vote, or will it get her targeted? Who is most vulnerable on Lagi or Civa if they fall on the wrong side of next week’s swap? Are all three Vula safe now since they have no power? Could they turn into the next Tika 3? Let me know in the comments.