As (not-quite) merge episodes go, Survivor 47's had a lot going for it. There was a solid dose of humor in Sue's continuing crime scene mysteries, more Genevieve ascendance in the otherwise pointless advantage search, and a playing-it-straight, piling-on sendoff for Rome that rivaled that of the late Roger Sexton's in The Amazon. Not to mention that Rome got to swap in for Jeff Probst in the "Previously On..." segment AND on the host's stump at Tribal Council. It could have been improved with less challenge bloat, but it did feature one massive step forward for the new era: Everyone (but one) voting and all but one eligible to be voted against at Tribal Council. You know, like normal Survivor.

It's not great that it took seven seasons for Probst to release his stranglehold on regular merge voting and the far greater array of strategic options that presents isn't ideal. Nor is it acceptable that - as the press release for the next episode reveals - the dumb New Era half-the-cast-immune thing is back next week. Like the "earn the merge" RC, it was just shifted an episode, thereby making it a "new twist." Ugh.

All in all, the only real problem with this episode was that it felt like production was terrified they would have to fill 90 minutes of episode with only - gasp! - the contestants playing the game. Hence back-to-back challenges for no obvious reason, and a listless advantage hunt that everyone (but one) gave up on after a minute. All while still continuing to prop up tired old new era "twists" like only half the cast being allowed to eat the merge feast (which is now the "merge meal," or at least it would be, except Jeff Probst said it was just a reward "meal"). It didn't need to be this complicated or time-consuming. What would have been so bad about seeing the tribes finally get to meet each other?

In defense of a normal merge vote

For me, the biggest failure of this episode was its insistence on rigidly adhering to the general structure of a New Era "three tribes living on one beach with no buffs" episode, even when doing so made no sense. The switch to one person winning individual immunity was a welcome change back to the show's original merge episode format. After that decision had been made, though, the remnants of the "earn the merge" stuff were completely unnecessary, and just felt like arbitrary cruelty, mixed with content purely there to fill a 90-minute episode (the RC).

That's because if you had one person winning individual immunity, you didn't need the dumb team-vs-team challenge that preceded the IC. You could have simply had all 13 people competing for individual immunity. (The near-perfect SurvivorAU: Titans v Rebels did that exact challenge for the first post-merge challenge! On Day 26!) That would have dramatically streamlined the episode, and allowed for other things (a full merge feast). Heck, throw an advantage into the merge feast, I don't care. You can still have the advantage at merge camp - let the finder sit out during the first section of ramp in the IC, and hop in during the first transition.

So the only real reason left for even running this reward challenge was to decide who got the food ... so why not just let everyone eat? You know, like a normal merge feast? What is gained by only half the contestants eating? As Jake eloquently pointed out in Survivor 45, in the usual New Era format, there was at least some logic to having the non-winners - who were the only ones eligible to be voted against - sitting glumly in camp as they waited for the power-brokers to return from their meal, where they had decided which of the losers to target. Here, the meal was just delaying the strategy. If everyone was eating, they could all be talking at once! If smaller groups and the dysfunction of having them separated is so important, how about two separate merge feasts?

Jeff Probst claims that production prefers the standard New Era merge-atory format because they belive when multiple people are immune, they make more daring strategic decisions (what Tyson Apostol - I think - delicately termed "immunity balls"). Rome happily blamed his exit on everyone playing "cagey" with so many people vulnerable. But that seems like incorrect thinking on both Rome's and Probst's parts.

Look back at every New Era season. Who was booted in this spot? Someone from the largest of the three tribes (numbers here). And it was almost never some key leader. It was usually someone on the bottom. Targeting the likes of Sydney or Lydia was hardly revolutionary gameplay. It was just picking the path of least resistance. Even before the New Era, the same thing more or less happened in other three-tribe seasons, like Kaoh Rong and HvHvH. All it takes is for two tribes to get together and say "Screw those other jerks." There's no real strategy there, just the power of numbers. (Another reason a swap to two tribes in Ep3 would have been ideal.)

The wide-open options in Survivor 47, in contrast, allowed the people on the bottom of Lavo's power structure (Teeny and Sol) to eliminate someone who had crossed both of them. Also, the two people on the bottom of Tuku (Kyle and Tiyana, who would have been the most likely targets otherwise, since Tuku had the most players left), were the two key drivers in shifting the vote onto Rome. Kyle didn't even have a vote, but he more or less directed the merge boot (shades of Omar). Yes, this was still "keeping powder dry," or whatever cliché you prefer. But it at least gave everyone agency, including the people already on the bottom.

Revisiting the premiere's opening monologue

Now that we've officially hit the merge (with buffs and everything), it's a good time to go back to the two sequences in the premiere that seemed heavily foreshadow-y. One is the opening segment (before Probst says "26 days, 18 people, 1 Survivor"), the traditional spot for season-long hints. The second is the new addition to the rotation: Probst's opening speech to the contestants upon arrival. Last season, the latter highlighted the final three. This season, it mostly seemed to focus on the pre-jurors (keeping in mind that we likely have one more pre-juror to boot in Episode 7).

I went through all this in my post-premiere recap, but it's worth looking back at it now that the pre-jury is almost complete. Here's the opening sequence, traditionally a mix of pre-jury and late-gamers, one of whom is often the winner:

This season, those coveted confessionals went to: Sam, Aysha, Kyle, Tiyana, Jon (1st boot), Anika, Sue, and TK. There were also opening voiceovers from Gabe and Genevieve, which we know because those confessionals were in the original trailer from the 46 Aftershow.

Our pre-jury opening sequence speakers are thus: Aysha, Jon, Anika, and TK. There's a decent chance that either Kyle (would have been in trouble had he not won immunity in Ep.6) and Tiyana (knows about Sue's idol, and is thus a threat to her) could join those already at Ponderosa next episode. (Seems unlikely that'll happen to Sam, Sue, Gabe, or Genevieve, although it would be funny if it's Sam, since both of these sequences are spectacularly pro-Sam.)

Following the opening sequence up, here again are the people who are on the screen during Probst's monologue (I deleted my post-Ep1 commentary from the original version):

1. "When you're tired or you're hungry, or you feel left out" - Quick cut to Tiyana, then Jon.
2. "...you're gonna have the same cravings for community" - Cut to a nodding Rome, next to Kishan and Teeny.
3. "...a game that's played with humans" - A bouncing, nodding TK and a slight nod from Sue.
4. "...the same humans you are forming your community with are your adversaries" - Tight shot of Jon and Rachel, and Jon turns to look at Rachel.
5. "So you have to build a community with people you can rely on" - TK headshot, panning to ... "as you vote them out" headshot of Gabe.
6. "... then after you vote them out, you go back to them, trying to persuade them" - A side shot of Anika, who turns to face Probst.
7. "... to give YOU the vote for the million dollars" - Cut to a nodding Sam right after "the million dollars."

So again, whereas the 46 version of this sequence was heavy on late-game foreshadowing, this season's edition is almost entirely about the pre-jury. The only person missing there was Aysha. We had: Jon (twice), TK (twice), [no Aysha], Kishan, Anika, and Rome. And since we still have one more boot to come in the pre-jury, that could be Tiyana, Teeny, Sue, Rachel, Gabe, or Sam. (Hey, half the remaining cast ... I like those odds.)

Of those remaining players, while Andy's heel-turn declaration of war (with Sol) on the Gata tribe was featured in this week's preview, it's probably not going to end up with Sam leaving the game here, because he seems better connected than someone like Kyle or Tiyana. Andy targeting Rachel is possible, since she was the first to turn on Andy. But the most likely final undateable person is probably Tiyana, because Sue wants her out and has an idol to help accomplish that task, and because that first pair of shots in point (1) would neatly capture the first and last boots of the pre-jury. Shot(s) #1 is also the only instance where there was a hard cut between someone still in the game and a pre-juror, the rest were shots where active players just happened to be standing next to someone already voted out. (Except the "million dollars" shot of Sam in shot 7, of course.)

Of course, it's also possible Tiyana actually wins the game (Kyle seemed to think she could when he was talking to Rome), in which case the pairing in shot(s) #1 would represent the alpha and omega of the season. So there you have it: Tiyana is either out next or wins the season. Quite a range of possible outcomes.

Shorter takes

Rome the host: A lot of fans groaned when Rome got to sit on Jeff Probst's stump, and deliver a (very accurate!) monologue on why the amulet twist is more of a disadvantage than an advantage. I can see that maybe Rome should have been clued in that he was receiving this opportunity at this exact point in time because he was the target, but Rome didn't seem to pick up on that, so no harm, no foul. Either way, *I* enjoyed seeing this more mentor-like version of Probst. The actual Survivor host clearly enjoyed watching Rome sub in for him, and if there's one thing that seems true of Probst, it's that when people he likes tell him a twist sucks, Probst will actually think about whether that might be true. That's good enough for me. (Please tell him about merge-atory next, Rome!)

Was Sue trying to get caught? According to the timeline we were shown on TV, Sue found the paint-filled idol on Day 8. (Two episodes ago!) Tuku did not attend either of the two subsequent Tribal Councils. She had almost three full days to clean the paint out of the idol. What on earth was she doing all that time? Why wait until the other tribes are about to show up at your camp? (And as Bruce Perrault and others have pointed out, why use the well water when there's a giant ocean mere steps away?) She seemed fairly panicked in the heat of the moment upon finding the idol, which is reasonable. But her decision-making did not seem to improve in the following 72 hours. Just bizarre behavior, but at least it's funny, so that makes it all worthwhile. Sue's paint idol is rapidly becoming the US version of Australian Survivor Simon's cookie "idol.""