Episode 3 of Survivor 47 showed the six-person Lavo tribe - split just like the Gata tribe had been, into three pairs - deciding on an outcome much the same as we saw in the premiere. They kept the more volatile player that had irritated/worried everyone, and jettisoned a capable strategist/superfan instead.

In the Aysha-vs-Rome case we saw here, there were of course other factors that played into that, namely Rome's rapidly growing arsenal of advantages. He had an idol that he absolutely had to play this round (which everyone knew about), and having just watched 46, there was a very high probability he would play it for himself. He also had an advantage from the Ep3 journey, which only a select few knew about.

We weren't privy to Teeny and Kishan's internal discussions about Rome's advantages. That's probably because it was unnecessary. We just cut to the finish, where Teeny stated in confessional that they tipped the balance in favor of keeping Rome, rather than trying to pull off a move against him or his ally, Genevieve. This is a change in the game, spurred on by an avalanche of advantages combined with tiny starting tribes.

When you think about it, the math for Teeny and Kishan's decision made sense. Had Teeny and Kishan joined up with Sol and Aysha, as they seemed to originally be leaning, they had two votes each, so they could split between Rome and Genevieve. Teeny and Kishan both knew about Rome's vote steal advantage. One worry is they didn't know who the idol would be played on, Rome or Genevieve. So it's a 2-2-[0] tie with no advantage play, but that's beatable on a revote, 3-1. The problem is Rome's advantage. If Rome also used his vote steal on Sol or Aysha, suddenly it's a 3-2-[0] or 3-1-[0] scenario, with Rome and Genevieve piling three votes on either Sol or Aysha. No matter what Teeny and Kishan might have tried to do, one of the Sol/Aysha pair would have been voted out.

The only real defense possible here for Sol and Aysha was for them both to play their Shots in the Dark and hope that whichever one the others were targeting hit on that 1-in-6 chance. Teeny and Kishan could split their votes between Rome and Genevieve, Rome plays his idol on one, and Rome and Genevieve both vote for Sol or Aysha, but they're Safe. (Sol and Aysha don't vote, because they both plays SitD.) In that scenario, one of Rome or Genevieve is out, 1-0. But again, if Rome plays his vote steal on one of Sol or Aysha, that person then can't play their Shot in the Dark, and is a sitting duck. Combined with the idol, a vote steal is really powerful on a six-person tribe.

Obviously, Rome didn't play his advantage, so the non-Rome four could have called an audible at that point, and gone ahead with a straight 2-2-2 split (but if they were too obvious about it, Rome could then have played his advantage, and it's implausible to completely switch targets an alliances on a dime like that). And as we saw, the most likely scenario was Rome survives this vote, and Teeny was (rightly) worried about an idol-hunting frenzy as soon as they returned to camp, and Rome's advantage coupled with another idol will be even more powerful with five people left. So the calculation was just to bend to this power now, get in on their side, and hope for the best going forward.

So in a world of always six-person starting tribes, if the majority has both an idol and a vote steal advantage, it is pretty close to unbeatable. Just hope your four-person majority has both, I guess?

This feels less like an evolution of strategy, and more like extinction.

Imminent death of the single-use idol?

But strategy isn't the only thing on production's kill list. On the "On Fire with Jeff Probst" podcast (as summarized by Mariana Loizaga at InsideSurvivor, who thankfully listened to it so that I don't have to), last season's runner-up Charlie Davis pointed out to Probst that idols that expire after a single Tribal are basically risk-free individual immunity necklaces. You could give them to someone else, but why bother? They don't have any real decision-making associated with them, so they do not fit the "dangerous fun" theme Probst has touted for the New Era. Probst promised to take these comments back to production, and predicted that his own podcast is influencing Survivor. So ... so long, single-use idols?

If so, that's fine, because Charlie is completely right. All Rome's single-use idol really did was make an already small six-person tribe even smaller, with only five people eligible to be voted against at their first vote. Since there's not really any drama associated with that, it's hard to believe that's what production was hoping for. (Although the fact that we've already plowed through two idols by Ep3 means if there's dead space in Eps. 4-5, they can easily fill that with people hunting for idols again. Hurrah?)

The obvious solution to this problem is: Turn the single-use idol into a two-Tribal idol instead, like the pre-merge one Gabler had in 43. It's still an idol with very limited power, but there's at least one crucial decision to be made, in whether to hold it or play it at that first Tribal. Especially in the context of the New Era pre-merge (which only lasts five episodes), an idol that expires after two Tribals is long-lived enough that it could potentially last until the merge (-atory). It's not uncommon for a tribe to only attend Tribal once in the pre-merge, so there's a good strategic reason to save it. But as we saw with the 47 cast reacting to the lessons of 46, there's also a lot of comfort in playing it right away, getting rid of the potential target, and being guaranteed one-time safety. It'll still mostly be played immediately, probably, but there's at least potential strategy there.

The terrible, horrible, no good, very bad journey twist

We thought we'd escaped this after that first journey in 44 faded into distant memory, but the awful Bag o' Tricks is back. It's the "dilemma" where instead of making a decision, everybody is forced to play, whether they want to or not, and they have a 2-in-3 chance of losing their vote. It's Russian Roulette, except the the six-shooter has four chambers filled with bullets, instead of just one! What fun! (Extreme sarcasm intended.)

Well, actually, hold up: There was *one* good thing about this journey: Unlike past New Era second journeys (41-43 and 45-46, at least), this one came on what otherwise would have been an off day, rather than being crammed in between the RC/IC and Tribal. This was good for multiple reasons: (1) Nobody on any of the tribes knew who else would be attending, and (2) Nobody was excluded from the camp strategy discussions on Lavo before Tribal. That means nobody was screwed by the decisions of the winning tribe (Gata), and then further screwed by the shitty twist itself. So at least there's that. (On the other hand, from the CBS press release, the post-IC journey is back next week, so production has learned nothing, this was just a fluke.)

Also - Yes, more praise! Albeit not for production - Rome played this really well, portraying himself to Kyle and Anika as being on the bottom of Lavo, with Sol and Aysha as running the show. A really smart move that can only help him going forward.

But that's where the praise ends. This journey was otherwise pretty awful, because it was designed to punish the attendees. Aysha noted in her exit interviews that nobody from Lavo wanted to go on the Ep1 journey (for which she eventually, reluctantly, volunteered). This kind of crappy player treatment is not going to improve that, Jeffrey!

Why? Well, let's get the basics out of the way: As noted in the rules (above), the journey bag contained three scrolls, and each attendee was forced to draw at least once. Two of the scrolls took away that player's next vote. One gave them an unspecified advantage. Again, they *had* to draw, whether they wanted to or not. So as a player: 2-in-3 odds of losing your vote, zero choice about whether you want to accept those terrible odds.

On its face of it, this is very bad news for the players on the journey. But wait, it gets worse!

Again, you have 2-in-3 odds of losing your vote. But if you take the bait, and after already losing once, go for that 50-50 chance of gaining an advantage on your second draw (the only choice involved here), and you're successful (!), it's not actually clear what happens next.

We saw what Kyle's scroll said when he lost his vote (above). "You cannot cast ANY votes at your next Tribal Council." That's pretty strong language. It means, even if Kyle had come in holding an extra vote, he would have been unable to use both his regular vote and his extra vote at the next Tribal. We don't know what his advantage would have been if he had been successful. It's tempting to think every bag had a vote steal advantage, but note that in our one historic precedent (the Ep1 journey in 44), that was not the case. Lauren won the "Bank a vote" advantage on the first try, while Sarah got the "inheritance advantage" on her second draw, after first losing her vote (and poor Matt lost two votes). Sarah had no vote when Tika went to Tribal in Episode 2.

But for argument's sake, let's assume someone who lost their vote had drawn again and won the vote steal advantage. They would still be unable to cast their own vote (the Sarah precedent). Can they then use the vote steal and cast someone else's vote? More creatively, could they steal someone else's vote, then trade that in for a Shot in the Dark? (Normally, they're unable to use their Shot if they lost their vote.) Or ... are they still unable to cast ANY votes, meaning now two people can't vote?

There's nothing on Rome's advantage scroll, nor in the bag rules, that says the advantage restores anyone's vote if they lost it. So (again, Sarah precedent) presumably their own vote is long gone. But it also doesn't say what happens if they had already lost the ability to "cast ANY votes." There's a non-zero chance here that using that advantage when you have no vote also makes someone else's vote vanish in a puff of logic. Are we edging closer to the Probstian ideal of nobody being able to cast a vote at Tribal Council, and it's all just one big rock draw?

Fan fiction-y scenario: what if one person each at Tuku and Lavo finds and takes the new first Beware clue next week, thereby losing their votes, and Kyle, Anika, Rome, and those two people are all then swapped onto a new 5-person tribe right before the IC? Then let's say that tribe finishes third, and after the challenge Rome races around and finds the new Beware clue at his new swap camp, but can't complete his task. Nobody has a vote, and Rome also can't use his vote steal advantage, because nobody else has a vote, either. Jeff Probst: [*shudders orgasmically*]. (Sadly for Probst, there's no indication of a swap next week.)

The most likely scenario here is production didn't think this through, and intended for someone to lose their vote, then use the vote steal to once again be able to vote. No player is going to argue the opposite, unless someone shows both scrolls to their (pretending) ally who is also (again pretending) "not" a lawyer, and that attorney then raises a stink at Tribal that the advantage holder should not, in fact, be able to cast the stolen vote. (Like the "non-transferrable" incident - a phrase that is now missing from Rome's advantage.) It's also possible that the other bags had other equally shitty "advantages" like "Bank a Vote," which, again, also should not have worked if Lauren had lost her vote first.

What's the take-home message of all of this? Easy. If you're on Survivor 49, under no circumstances should you ever, ever, EVER volunteer to go on a journey, because chances are good (could be 67%-ish, even) that you'll be screwed over by production. (As were those on Lavo who didn't want to go, and also didn't want Rome to go. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.)

Shorter takes

Goodbye, Mr. Flint: I'm still 100% out on taking the flint away after an IC loss, but if we had to grind through seven (okay fine, I'm sure it's also in 48, so let's say eight) seasons of it, at least we had the delightfully odd shot of Genevieve (above), seeing her tribe hopelessly behind in the IC, bidding adieu to their flint, which was sitting next to her on the sit-out bench. (This also would have been a great title for the episode, instead of the cliché analogy Probst delivered at Tribal, sigh.) Even dumb ideas that have been flogged to death can still produce sparkling moments of entertainment.

The Sol-and-Rome show: There was a great sequence in the pre-Tribal segment, with Rome convincing himself that he'd snowed Sol into thinking Rome had lost his vote, which Sol saw through (not that doing so really helped him). But the best part was this exchange:

Rome (After repeatedly telling Sol he should vote for Aysha): "If I was you, I would just draw the continent, Asia, like ... [collapses into giggles.]"

Sol (Sarcasm level 11): "Yeah, that would be extremely cool of me."

Several hours later at Tribal, a mysterious vote appears (Sol immediately glares in Rome's direction):

What's hilarious about this is that Sol essentially told Rome he was an idiot, to his face, and Rome did not pick up on it in any way. Sol is Jim Halpert to Rome's Michael Scott here. Hopefully they're both stuck on a tribe together for a while longer still, and we get a lot more of this dynamic.