The premiere of Survivor 47 did a lot of things well: It delivered another aggressively game-savvy all-new cast, full of interesting characters, as has become the standard expectation. Episode 1 also managed to slightly pare back the tentpole Events that have cluttered New Era kickoffs, streamlining the proceedings down from seven to five set pieces, theoretically providing more time (two hours!) and space to fully characterize those new contestants.

In practice, however, those steps forward were shackled by a new, even more complex idol-finding mechanism that all but siloed off two of the contestants in their own mini-shows. Sure, we became quite familiar with Gabe and Rome and their approaches to the game via their idol hunting, but that came at the expense of almost everyone else on their tribes. Time saved, but then promptly wasted again.

Oh well, hopefully we'll actually get to meet the remaining pre-merge boots before they leave the show. Based on the 46 precedent for idol-finders, maybe we have already spent a lot of time with two of them.

Thumbs up to combining Sweat, Savvy, and the journey

The New Era premiere episodes have always been a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, no question, it's always a big celebration to kick off a new season and get to know a new group of contestants. On the other hand, there's the monotony of always getting three production-assigned (unthemed) tribes of six. You'll have an opening challenge of some kind, where one tribe wins their flint, then a variation on "Sweat vs. Savvy," and then on Day 2, you get a journey, with a boat showing up at each camp to whisk one player away. Finally, there's the standard IC & Tribal on Day 3, just like in Survivor Classic™.

Replacing the goal of the "Sweat vs. Savvy" tasks (winning camp supplies) with a simple Day 1 journey task, with just one representative from each of the RC-losing tribes (Aysha for Lavo, TK for Tuku) attending, was a welcome change. Sweat vs. Savvy separated two people from their tribes (on two tribes) for a long time on Day 1. The Day 2 journey also separated people from their tribes during a critical bonding period. Rolling these three events (two in 45) into one is a major improvement. The whole point of an extended premiere is to get to know the new cast. But if we're (1) watching two people do the "Sweat" challenge, then (2) watching two other people doing the "Savvy" challenge, and (3) watching another three people who aren't even on the same tribe do a journey together, that's a lot of time *not* seeing the new contestants build relationships with their new tribemates. And with three tribes, every return to camp (after Sweat/Savvy, after the journey) has to be documented. That's six return scenes scaled back to two. Much better. (One criticism here: Sweat/Savvy allowed each tribe the chance to get their camp supplies. The new system means one tribe is always screwed, no matter how hard they work for it, which is not great.)

I closed out the summer rewatching Nicaragua, which I believe was Jeff Probst's first season as showrunner. It's absolutely a Jeff Probst premiere, full of pointless busywork that ends up being ultimately meaningless (see also: Finding idols in 46). As a reminder: The Nicaragua cast was forced to "hike in" in fake tribes, along the way giving their first-impression thoughts on their competitors (one of whom was Famous Football Coach Jimmy Johnson). They then immediately go on a vague open-ended search for the Medallion of Power in a quasi-team/ quasi-individual scramble. (A lot of work for something retired by Episode 5). Then they have a mat chat about the Medallion and what it's for, *then* learn that these are not their real tribes, and it's old vs. young, and they're re-sorted accordingly. *Then* the younger tribe accepts the offer to give away the Medallion in exchange for useful camp items. Approximately a third of the premiere eaten away with production-directed subterfuge and pointless time-wasting Big Events, before we even get the two tribes to their camps.

So the big shock here is that after only six full seasons of the New Era, someone was able to convince Probst that maybe, just maybe, having three tribe camps to visit, plus two separate tasks (Sweat/Savvy), plus a journey, plus the standard two challenges and a Tribal Council was maybe starting to border just a teensy bit on Too Much.

The 47-edition Beware idol: Fun, but a time sink

The Beware idols have received tweaks almost every season (silly phrases x2, bracelets, birdcage, the hellscape torture Austin was put through in 45, the toned-down box of tricks in 46), which has helped keep them feeling somewhat fresh. The two main problems with the beware idols have been that (1) they silo off access to one person per tribe, and (2) they're very public, and any idols that escape the pre-merge timeframe undetected are almost certainly known post-merge. Also, because they're such a pain in the ass to find and activate, the finders are very reluctant to "waste" them, which produced the catastrophic string of people being voted out while holding them in 46. The 47 version retains all these problems and adds a bit more, although the core concept of the holder being able to level up the idol with additional tasks, last seen in 45, is a strong idea. It's just that in practice, the execution of all this is screentime sponge.

Let me say that again: letting the idol-finder take on additional risks in exchange for greater powers, and clearly spelling out the reward/risk difference is a satisfying and reasonably fair way to do this. Bravo to this change. Although it had to be a bit of a letdown for Gabe to go through approximately as much work as Tiffany did in the 46 premiere, only to receive a crappy 1-Tribal idol for his efforts, instead of a fully powered one. We saw Gabe go to fairly extreme lengths (pulling in Sue, reluctantly pulling in TK, making a huge racket with his box) just to get that 1-Tribal idol, then creating an early-morning ruckus smashing driftwood to transform that into a 3-Tribal idol. He could project that the final task(s) for generating a fully powered idol would likely be even more public and risky. An idol still only provides protection one time, and as everyone saw in 46, the danger of anyone else knowing you have an idol is substantial. (We can debate separately whether it was really a good idea to force Rome to contaminate Lavo's water supply to retrieve a key.)

The downside of the 47 idol system was also pretty clear: It means one player's side quest sucks up a huge amount of screentime, at the cost of learning about other players on that tribe. We got to see a fair amount of the Gata tribe, which was important because they went to Tribal. But outside of Gabe and Rome, did we really see much of anyone else in the Tuku and Lavo tribes?

On Tuku, we did get some Sue, because Gabe asked her to help as lookout during his search. We also got some TK, but we'd already seen him because he went on the journey. We did see some of Caroline as an ironic follow-on scene after Gabe talks about being tight with Sue - Sue has a confessional talking about how she feels a natural bond with Caroline ... who is not Gabe. Caroline also got to mock the men's adoration of TK. But good luck remembering anything Tiyana or Kyle did after they got to camp. The last time we heard from them was in the opening sequence's backstory confessionals.

Meanwhile, Lavo's non-Rome contestants were also painted in very broad, shallow brush strokes. Teeny's goal is to be everyone's friend, and it seems to be working. Sol, Kishan, Teeny, and Aysha are suspicious of Rome, and they catch him at the well right after he retrieves the key. Aysha is a podcaster (for RHAP!) who went on the journey. Kishan is an ER doctor, which we probably could have figured out from his chyron. For Sol, his sole characterization is that he's against Rome; for Genevieve, it's that she likes Rome. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

That's pretty pathetic for a two-hour episode. The whole point of the premiere is to let the audience to get to know the new contestants. As they introduce themselves to each other in camp, we also get to know them. We see different cliques forming, like "beach people" vs. "shelter people." This "new community" forms organically, and as the actions of camp-building and challenges unfold, we learn about the players as their first impressions start to shift, due to the pressures of the game. Instead of that, we saw a lot about hidden boxes inside of hidden boxes. Also a treasure hunt using photos. Is that *really* serving the audience better than meeting the players? Personally, I'd rather know more about where/how someone like Kyle fits into the Tuku hierarchy than how you can fit three idols and clue sets into a single box, but maybe that's just me.

The counter-argument to this is: You saw what happened on Gata. The entire strategic content of the premiere for them was Andy and Jon going off to carry bamboo, and the other four said, "Let's be a four and vote one of them out." There, done. Didn't matter that Andy melted down at the IC, and if anything, it just made the decision easier, because Jon was now the clear bigger threat. And therefore ... we need Big Events like journeys and overly elaborate idol hunts, because otherwise we'd just have three sets of people sitting around staring at each other for two hours.

Of course, there's an obvious, non-time-wasting solution for that: Go back to two tribes. Probst loves to talk about how the game has evolved during the New Era, and that each cast is playing in reaction to the season(s) that came before it. But everyone's figured out that, in a six-person starting tribe, you can get most of the way to the merge by just forming a solid group of four on Day 1 (and as James Jones points out, having a strong three within that four is also a good idea). So the reason there's no strategy is that there's no reason for strategy, because everyone can do 100% of that work in a few seconds, because the starting tribe size is always the same, and there's really only one formula that works.

So if production wants a note about how to simplify and streamline the premiere: Cut the journey and the "you have to EARN it" stuff. Go back to regular, fully-powered idols. Go back to two tribes (three is fine on occasion, just not all the time). Have a simple RC (for rice and flint, which they EARN by winning) to open the show, and have an IC in the middle. Watch the players adapt to the many more social/strategic permutations of a 9-person or a 10-person tribe. (It's been long enough since we had two starting tribes that this is like Tyler Perry suggesting the Panama/Cook Islands super-idol to Probst, who dutifully crammed it into Cagayan ... so maybe we should have Tyler suggest this.)

Fine, what is the lay of the land in each tribe, post-premiere?

Tuku: Caroline highlighted a potential men-vs-women split, noting that Gabe and Kyle were deeply in TK's thrall once he returned to camp with supplies. We also saw Gabe recruiting Sue as an ally, and Sue talking about her connection to Caroline. Out of all of these loops: Tiyana (except if Caroline wants to oppose an apparent men's alliance, Tiyana is needed - but Tiyana also said pre-game she wants to align with physical guys like TK, so maybe that's a future development). Other takeaways: Gabe looped both TK and Sue into his idol hunting, but TK came away suspicious of Gabe, while Sue helped out. If there is a men-vs-women split, Gabe could be the odds-on favorite to be the fourth for the women, via his connection with Sue. Or the as yet unseen TK-Tiyana connection could derail that. Whatever the case, Gabe has an idol. Will he know when to use it?

Lavo: We saw a clear four form among the non-Rome people (except Genevieve, who says she really likes Rome). The bad news for Genevieve: If the other four suspect Rome has an idol, guess who's their most likely target, to avoid being idoled out? Other takeaways: Sol is jacked (he's a Crossfitter) and is desperately needed for tribe strength in the first few early, likely physical challenges. Kishan worked both puzzles, as did Aysha. Aysha has some physicality that might help if something happens to Sol, but the rest of the tribe is more brains than brawn.

Gata: In Jon's exit interviews, he stated that the divide in the first episode was that there were three clear pairs: Jon-Andy, Sam-Sierra, and Rachel and Anika in the middle. But again, we also saw an alliance of four (Sam, Sierra, Anika, Rachel) form in camp while Jon and Andy were off fetching bamboo. If Jon's read that the four is actually two pairs, then Andy is in a great spot as the swing vote (but Rachel is hesitant to work with him, meaning it's the Sam/Sierra pair or bust). If it's really still a four, then Andy is in big trouble, although if Gata is the second coming of the also-yellow Lulu tribe, and keeps losing ICs, how the tribe divides after that is a mystery.

Crystal ball gazing, part 1: The opening Probst monologue

Last season, the game did not start until after Probst went on a seemingly bizarre tangent, informing the cast that some of them just would never mesh with their castmates, and thus had zero chance at winning. It was clearly shown for foreshadowing effect, but even as of Episode 6, it wasn't clear what was being foretold. In retrospect, as Probst says "no matter who you go to the end with," there's a close-up on Kenzie, who does better than just go to the end, and the shot slowly pans to Siga's Charlie and Ben at the end of the sentence, "you won't get the votes." So what do we see in this season's version?

Well, it's a lot longer (or it feels that way, at least), and there are a lot of stationary shots of full tribes, which may be meaningful, but probably aren't. What's useful are the headshots of single or multiple players cut into specific parts of the speech. Those are:

• "When you're tired or you're hungry, or you feel left out" - Quick cut to Tiyana, then Jon. Maybe the prophecy is complete with Jon's being the first boot, but it feels odd to shoehorn Tiyana in there randomly, no?
• "...you're gonna have the same cravings for community" - Cut to a nodding Rome, next to Kishan and Teeny. Rome isolates himself in the first episode (after criticizing Aysha for doing it to herself by volunteering for the journey). This actually could already be complete.
• "...a game that's played with humans" - A bouncing, nodding TK and a slight nod from Sue. (Eh, okay, they are indeed both in this game, and both humans.)
• "...the same humans you are forming your community with are your adversaries" - Tight shot of Jon and Rachel, and Jon turns to look at Rachel. This is basically the story of Episode 1. Done.
• "So you have to build a community with people you can rely on" - TK headshot, panning to ... "as you vote them out" headshot of Gabe. Interesting.
• "... then after you vote them out, you go back to them, trying to persuade them" - A side shot of Anika, who turns to face Probst. Anika is a finalist?
• "... to give YOU the vote for the million dollars" - Cut to a nodding Sam right after "the million dollars." This seems way too obvious to be true, but Sam definitely feels like a late-game player, at worst.

In all likelihood, after playing it straight with the foreshadowing in 46, the obvious move in the very next season is to use the same editing technique to actively mislead everyone. Sam could well be a zero-vote finalist. "Left out" Tiyana might make a deep run. So take this with a grain of salt.

Crystal ball gazing, part 2: The opening sequence

The other key piece of prognostication-by-edit is the opening sequence, the series of shots of silent contestants on the boat - interspersed with confessionals - that precedes their official arrival, Probst's "26 days, one Survivor!" spiel, and actually hitting the beach. In the new era, the people who gave confessionals in these have consistently been a roughly 50-50 mix of early boots and late-game important players. With the exception of (hiding in plain sight) Gabler in 43, every winner has had a confessional in this segment.

This season, those coveted confessionals went to: Sam, Aysha, Kyle, Tiyana, Jon (1st boot), Anika, Sue, and TK. There were also opening voiceovers from Gabe and Genevieve, which we know because those confessionals were in the original trailer from the 46 Aftershow. For the New Era, at least, the first confessional has always been by someone who at least made the jury (Evvie, Drea, Ryan, Carolyn, Drew, Tevin). No winners so far in the leadoff spot (bad news for Sam). Twice the winner has been in the last spot, though (Maryanne, Dee), so there's a 33% chance of that being good news for TK.

Having seen just the first episode, the early boots in this grouping seem most likely to be: Jon (Whoo! I'm batting 1.000!), Anika (she received a vote already, never a good sign), and one or both of Kyle or Tiyana (both edited out of the Tuku story so far). It's possible that Gabe and Genevieve, whose contributions were pared down from full confessionals to voiceovers, are also in short-term trouble, but that's mostly based on the events of Episode 1.

Shorter takes

Who are these people?: Probst leaned pretty heavily on the mud pit in the opening minutes being some transformative event, "birthing" the new contestants into Survivor. All the same, though, the audience is just trying to learn who these people are, and even for someone armed with hours of pre-game interview videos, it's pretty hard to tell which person is who when they're all coated in mud. On the plus side, I did note they've added Bruce Perrault Memorial padding to the beam spanning the entrance to the mud pit. See, production *can* learn and adapt when they want to.

Who is this person?: It was devastating to lose Jon Lovett in the premiere. In his short time on the show, he established that he was in the running to be one of the best confessionalists in the show's history. Consistently insightful, funny, and because he absorbed the show mostly in isolation, a player with the potential to deliver new observations, not just rehashes of conventional superfan wisdom. He just needed more time. But perhaps the biggest shock is that nobody on his tribe knew who he was (while at least two players this season - Teeny and Andy - know who Aysha is, from RHAP), nor had listened to Pod Save America. So he wasn't voted out because he was famous (at least to the extent the edit told us). Either way, start cranking up your "Lovett for 50" campaigns now.

The what tribe, now?: After the RC, Probst accidentally refers to the Lavo tribe as "Lava." Maybe red wasn't the optimal color for this tribe (whose emblem is a rat). Shoulda gone with orange.

New communities, representing...: Completely unnanounced in the premiere are the mascots/insignias of the tribes. Given the hoopla about Survivor history in Hunter's journey last season, seems like *someone* should have mentioned that Gata means "snake" in Fijian, and Lavo means "rat" (my online English-to-Fijian translator spits out "kalavo" for rat, and translates "lavo" as money, but there are plenty of native Fijian speakers on the crew, so surely someone actually vetted these names). They didn't stumble on those two names by accident, right? And of course, being Jeff Probst-run Survivor, the show then immediately screwed up the reference by cramming in a third tribe, Tuku, which apparently means spider, based on their buffs/flag. (Online translators come up empty there, but again, presumably someone who actually speaks Fijian okayed this.) Maybe they belatedly realized their error, which was why this wasn't announced. Sigh.