Survivor 38: Edge of Extinction boxscores
Ep.2: "One of Us Is Going to Win the War"
By Jeff Pitman | Published: February 28, 2019
Survivor: Edge of Extinction boxscores

Filmed: June 2-4, 2018 |  Aired: February 27, 2019
Lauren finds idol
Kama wins IC
Keith out, 6-1-1
Keith: no decision


  • Ep.2 idol: Lauren finds Manu's idol near camp. Tells no one.
  • Ep.2 Reward/ Immunity challenge: "Serpent Turf" - Joe wins another challenge for the Kama tribe, hurrah!
  • Ep.2 voted out: Keith, 6-1-1 over Kelley and Wendy, respectively. No idols played.
  • Ep.2 decision: 404, file not found.


Episode 2 scoring notes


- None of the voting booth confessionals were shown, so we had to do some armchair handwriting analysis to figure out who cast the two stray votes (and for whom). Keith was obviously one, but which of the two votes came from him was a mystery. As it turns out: Wendy cast the vote for "Kelly," meaning Keith voted for Wendy. Yay, and thanks to Dalton Ross for forcing the contestants to each write an essay ("my most embarrassing moment") before they played.


Analysis summarized here, but see also the picture below. Key points: (1) Wendy's letter Y's (red lines) are two straight lines, with the longer one often tilted almost vertically, just like the Y in "Kelly." (2) Keith, in contrast, draws his lower-case y with a rounded bottom (matching the vote for Wendy). (3) Keith also draws his lowercase e almost larger than his d in words with "end" in them (green underline), as in the vote for Wendy. (4) He intermittently draws lowercase d (green arrows) with no vertical line (or curled tail) below the loop, as seen in the vote. Writing samples come from Dalton Ross's Instagram posts: Wendy, and Keith.


Ep2 stray votes


Vote count:

- Keith received 6 votes, from Chris, David, Kelley, Lauren, Rick, and Wardog (voted out, 6-1-1).

- Kelley received 1 vote, from Wendy.

- Wendy received 1 vote, from Keith.

Episode 2 boxscore
Immunity Challenge Tribal council stats
Contestant ChW ChA SO VFB VAP TotV TCA SurvSc SurvAv
Aubry 0.13 0.13 - - - - - N/A N/A
Aurora 0.13 0.13 - - - - - N/A N/A
Eric 0.13 0.13 - - - - - N/A N/A
Gavin 0.13 0.13 - - - - - N/A N/A
Joe 0.13 0.13 - - - - - N/A N/A
Julia 0.13 0.13 - - - - - N/A N/A
Julie - 0.13 1 - - - - N/A N/A
Ron 0.13 0.13 - - - - - N/A N/A
Victoria 0.13 0.13 - - - - - N/A N/A
Chris 0.00 0.13 - 1 - 8 1 1.00 7.00
David 0.00 0.13 - 1 - 8 1 1.00 7.00
Rick 0.00 0.13 - 1 - 8 1 1.00 7.00
Wardog 0.00 0.13 - 1 - 8 1 0.50 3.50
Lauren 0.00 0.13 - 1 - 8 1 0.47 2.80
Kelley 0.00 0.13 - 1 1 8 1 0.44 2.33
Keith 0.00 0.13 - 0 6 8 1 0.32 1.40
Wendy 0.00 0.13 - 0 1 8 1 -0.12 0.00
Reem - - - - - - - -0.44 0.00
Glossary of terms
  • Challenge stats
    • ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
    • ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
    • ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
    • SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
  • Tribal Council stats
    • VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
    • VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
    • TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
    • TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
    • TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
    • wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
  • Jury stats
    • JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
    • TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
    • JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
  • Overall scores
    • Survival Score (SurvSc). It's simply the sum of Challenge Win% (ChW%) + Tribal Council% (TC%) + Jury Vote%, for a maximum possible score of 2 (3 after the finale).
    • Survival Average (SurvAv). It's a simple sum of fractional Challenge Wins (ChW), weighted TC Ratio (wTCR), and (eventually) a weighted Jury%. The latter two max out at six points total, for a theoretical maximum score of around 18 or so.