Episode 14: "I Can See the Million Dollars"
Survivor 38: Edge of Extinction Episode 14 boxscore
Filmed: July 3-7, 2018 | Aired: May 15, 2019
![Victoria out, [0]-2-[0]](../images/e14/f6tc-pb.jpg "Victoria out, [0]-2-[0]")
- Re-entry RC: "Don't Call It a Comeback" - Joe comes within inches of winning, but Chris pulls it out in the end. The Edge people finally get to head to Ponderosa.
- Final 6 Reward/ Immunity challenge: "Odyssey 6" - Julie eventually solves her puzzle from the outside in, brings Chris and Lauren for a reward feast.
- Final 6 voted out: Rick plays his idol for himself, voiding 3 votes and saving him; Lauren plays her idol for Chris, voiding 1 vote. Leaving just two votes, both for Victoria (idoled out, [0]-2-[0]).
![Lauren out, [0]-2](../images/e14/f5tc-pb.jpg "Lauren out, [0]-2")
- Final 5 idol: Rick finds his record-setting fourth one, and plants two fakes, which Julie and Lauren find. He also returns the half-idol to Chris, giving Chris a fully functional idol.
- Final 5 Immunity challenge: "Giant Tick" - All navigate the obstacles fairly will, Rick pulls out a win on the puzzle.
- Final 5 voted out: Chris plays his idol, voiding three votes, Rick plays his for Gavin (no effect), Julie and Lauren try to play their fake idols. Final score: Lauren idoled out, [0]-2.
- Final 4 immunity challenge: "Let There Be Rock" - Chris is slow, steady, and wins the challenge.
- Final 4 fire-making: Chris gives Julie his immunity necklace, then defeats Rick in firemaking. Rick out.
- Final Tribal Council and jury vote: Chris wins, 9-4-0 over Gavin and Julie, respectively.
Episode 14 scoring notes
- RC placement: 1. Chris wins (obviously) with 2 balls placed; 2-tie. Aurora and Joe each placed 1 ball; 4-tie. Eric, David, Kelley, Ron, and Wardog all working on the table maze, no balls placed; 9-tie. Reem and Julia, still crossing the rope bridge; 11. Poor Aubry, still trying to navigate the ropes.
F6 Vote count:
- [Rick received 3 votes, from Gavin, Julie, and Lauren, all voided by his idol play.]
- Victoria received 2 votes, from Chris and Rick (idoled out, [0]-2-[0])
- [Chris received 1 vote, from Victoria, voided by Lauren's idol play.]
F5 Vote count:
- [Chris received 3 votes, from Gavin, Julie, and Lauren, all voided by his idol play.]
- Lauren received 2 votes, from Chris and Rick (idoled out, [0]-2).
Jury vote count:
- Chris received 9 votes, from Aubry, Eric, Joe, Julia, Ron, Victoria, David, Wardog, and Reem (winner, 9-4-0).
- Gavin received 4 votes, from Aurora, Kelley, Lauren, and Rick (second place).
- Julie received 0 votes (third place).
| Reward Challenge | Overall score | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChW | ChA | Plc | %Fin | MPF |
| Joe | 0 | 1 | t-2 | 0.86 | 85.5% |
| David | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 0.55 | 77.5% |
| Aurora | 0 | 1 | t-2 | 0.86 | 72.3% |
| Chris | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 61.1% |
| Julia | 0 | 1 | t-9 | 0.23 | 55.9% |
| Ron | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 0.55 | 44.8% |
| Eric | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 0.55 | 44.3% |
| Kelley | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 0.55 | 42.2% |
| Reem | 0 | 1 | t-9 | 0.23 | 36.4% |
| Wardog | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 0.55 | 32.5% |
| Aubry | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.09 | 29.5% |
| Reward/ Immunity Challenge | Tribal Council | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChW | ChA | Plc | %Fin | MPF | VFB | VAP | TotV | TCA |
| Chris | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 0.33 | 61.1% | 1 | 0* | 6 | 1 |
| Rick | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 0.33 | 60.7% | 1 | 0* | 6 | 1 |
| Lauren | 0 | 1 | t-2 | 0.75 | 56.8% | 0 | - | 6 | 1 |
| Gavin | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 0.33 | 56.0% | 0 | - | 6 | 1 |
| Julie | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 55.6% | 0 | - | 6 | 1 |
| Victoria | 0 | 1 | t-2 | 0.75 | 50.9% | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| F5 Immunity Challenge | Tribal Council | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChW | ChA | Plc | %Fin | MPF | VFB | VAP | TotV | TCA |
| Rick | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 63.7% | 1 | - | 5 | 1 |
| Gavin | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.80 | 58.0% | 0 | - | 5 | 1 |
| Chris | 0 | 1 | t-3 | 0.40 | 55.8% | 1 | 0* | 5 | 1 |
| Lauren | 0 | 1 | t-3 | 0.40 | 55.4% | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Julie | 1 | 1 | t-3 | 0.40 | 54.3% | 0 | - | 5 | 1 |
| F4 Immunity Challenge | Final Tribal council | Overall scores | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChW | ChA | Plc | %Fin | MPF | JVF | TotJ | JV% | SurvSc | SurvAv |
| Chris | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 64.7% | 9 | 13 | 0.69 | 1.89 | 8.79 |
| Gavin | 0 | 1 | t-2 | 0.50 | 57.4% | 4 | 13 | 0.31 | 1.22 | 10.24 |
| Julie | 0 | 1 | t-2 | 0.50 | 53.9% | 0 | 13 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 6.11 |
| Rick | 0 | 1 | t-2 | 0.50 | 62.7% | - | - | - | 0.96 | 7.34 |
| Lauren | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.70 | 1.76 |
| Victoria | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.78 | 4.15 |
| Aurora | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.80 | 4.47 |
| Ron | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.92 | 5.19 |
| Wardog | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.79 | 2.38 |
| Kelley | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.72 | 1.36 |
| David | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.69 | 1.51 |
| Julia | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.84 | 2.93 |
| Eric | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.63 | 2.06 |
| Joe | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.04 | 1.58 |
| Aubry | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.65 | 0.48 |
| Reem | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.44 | 0.00 |
| Wendy | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.33 | 0.92 |
| Keith | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.32 | 1.40 |
Glossary of terms
- Challenge
stats
- ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
- ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
- ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
- SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
- Tribal
Council stats
- VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
- VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
- TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
- TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
- TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
- wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
- Jury
stats
- JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
- TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
- JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
- Overall
scores
- Survival Score (SurvSc). It's simply the sum of Challenge Win% (ChW%) + Tribal Council% (TC%) + Jury Vote%, for a maximum possible score of 2 (3 after the finale).
- Survival Average (SurvAv). It's a simple sum of fractional Challenge Wins (ChW), weighted TC Ratio (wTCR), and (eventually) a weighted Jury%. The latter two max out at six points total, for a theoretical maximum score of around 18 or so.