Episode 9: "Running the Camp"
Survivor 21: Nicaragua Episode 9
boxscore
Filmed: July 5-7, 2010 | Aired: November 10, 2010
- Ep.9 RC: "Three Little Pigs O-Course" - It's a pretty elaborate design for a simple obstacle course (a more epic build than most new era ones), but the challenge is kneecapped by a rock draw that gives a men's team and a women's team, and the men win easily. In response, Survivor will go with all rock draws, all the time.
- Ep.9 reward: The men get a tree-top ziplining experience, followed by a barbecue, where Marty hatches a plan to use NaOnka as the decoy vote to blindside Jane.
- Ep.9 IC: "Flashback" - A very basic memory game, and only Brenda can remember six items twice.
- Ep.9 Tribal: Sash and Brenda foolishly side with Jane/Holly/Chase, and Marty is out, 7-4.
Episode 9 scoring notes
- This Tribal was the real inflection point for Brenda and Sash's games. They had the choice of booting either Marty (Jane's side's preference) or Jane (Marty's side's preference). If they stick with Holly/Jane/Chase, they're enabling their toxic "good vs. evil" narrative, which in no way suits either of their games, and strengthens a three-person core alliance. If they let Marty linger another round, as they initially preferred, yes, he temporarily builds his power with Dan/Benry/Fabio. But they also change the tone of the game to a more strategic, less emotional/"honor and integrity" one. And he could still be taken out at the next round. They'd have needed to do damage control with Purple Kelly and NaOnka, but that seems doable. Obviously in hindsight, it was a bad choice by Brenda because she's the next boot. But just on its face, it was a bad choice by both of them, because it reinforced a jury-phase narrative that hurt their respective chances of winning.
Vote count:
- Marty received 7 votes, from Brenda, Chase, Holly, Jane, NaOnka, Purple Kelly, and Sash (voted out, 7-4).
- Jane received 4 votes, from Benry, Dan, Fabio, and Marty.
| Reward challenge | Immunity challenge | Overall score | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChA | ChW | SO | ChA | ChW | Plc | % Fin | MPF |
| Marty | 0.20 | 0.20 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.91 | 77.5% |
| Holly | 0.00 | 0.20 | - | 0 | 1 | t-6 | 0.45 | 76.3% |
| Chase | - | 0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.73 | 73.4% |
| Fabio | 0.20 | 0.20 | - | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.64 | 67.0% |
| Brenda | 0.00 | 0.20 | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 62.5% |
| Benry | 0.00 | 0.20 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.82 | 59.8% |
| Jane | 0.00 | 0.20 | - | 0 | 1 | t-10 | 0.14 | 50.4% |
| Sash | 0.20 | 0.20 | - | 0 | 1 | t-6 | 0.45 | 44.3% |
| NaOnka | 0.00 | 0.20 | - | 0 | 1 | t-10 | 0.14 | 31.5% |
| Purple Kelly | 0.00 | 0.20 | - | 0 | 1 | t-6 | 0.45 | 33.2% |
| Dan | 0.20 | 0.20 | - | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.27 | 24.2% |
| Tribal council stats | Overall scores | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | VFB | VAP | TotV | TCA | SurvSc | SurvAv |
| Chase | 1 | - | 11 | 1 | 1.19 | 7.81 |
| Holly | 1 | - | 11 | 1 | 1.19 | 7.58 |
| Purple Kelly | 1 | - | 11 | 1 | 1.08 | 7.34 |
| Benry | 0 | - | 11 | 1 | 1.04 | 6.61 |
| Sash | 1 | - | 11 | 1 | 0.96 | 6.28 |
| NaOnka | 1 | - | 11 | 1 | 1.18 | 5.48 |
| Brenda | 1 | - | 11 | 1 | 1.33 | 4.59 |
| Fabio | 0 | - | 11 | 1 | 0.80 | 4.48 |
| Dan | 0 | - | 11 | 1 | 1.00 | 3.33 |
| Jane | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0.71 | 2.45 |
| Marty | 0 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0.65 | 1.34 |
| Alina | - | - | - | - | 0.70 | 1.81 |
| Jill | - | - | - | - | 1.27 | 4.15 |
| Yve | - | - | - | - | 0.71 | 1.78 |
| Kelly B | - | - | - | - | 0.61 | 2.34 |
| Tyrone | - | - | - | - | 1.05 | 2.35 |
| Jimmy T | - | - | - | - | 0.87 | 2.20 |
| Jimmy J | - | - | - | - | 0.66 | 1.29 |
| Shannon | - | - | - | - | -0.23 | 0.10 |
| Wendy | - | - | - | - | -0.90 | 0.00 |
Glossary of terms
- Challenge
stats
- ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
- ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
- ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
- SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
- Tribal
Council stats
- VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
- VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
- TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
- TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
- TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
- wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
- Jury
stats
- JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
- TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
- JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
- Overall
scores
- Survival Score (SurvSc). It's simply the sum of Challenge Win% (ChW%) + Tribal Council% (TC%) + Jury Vote%, for a maximum possible score of 2 (3 after the finale).
- Survival Average (SurvAv). It's a simple sum of fractional Challenge Wins (ChW), weighted TC Ratio (wTCR), and (eventually) a weighted Jury%. The latter two max out at six points total, for a theoretical maximum score of around 18 or so.