Episode 6: "Worst Case Scenario"
Survivor 21: Nicaragua Episode 6
boxscore
Filmed: June 28, 2010 | Aired:
October 20, 2010
- Ep.6 individual ICs: "Kitty Litter" - Both tribes compete separately for individual immunity, by digging up rings in sand with a paddle, and flipping them into a fanny-toilet, then placing them on a post. It's as exciting as it sounds. Holly wins for Espada, Jill for La Flor.
- Ep.6 Hero RC: "Kitty Litter" - In the final stage, the two winners compete in ring toss (landing three rings on hooks on a shield). It's also as exciting as it sounds. Jill wins for La Flor, meaning they go to Tribal first, and get a kabob feast while watching Espada's Tribal.
- Ep.6 La Flor Tribal: Marty suddenly realizes Brenda can't be trusted, tries to flip the vote on her, fails. But doesn't play his idol. So it's briefly a 3-3-2 tie, with Kelly B and Marty each getting three, and Marty and Jill voting Brenda. Kelly B goes on the revote, 5-1, as Jane refuses to switch out from voting Marty.
- Ep.6 Espada Tribal: It's pretty dull viewing for La Flor, as Yve is out, 6-1 over Dan.
Episode 6 scoring notes
- Individual IC scoring: For posterity purposes, the order of finish was as follows. Espada (7 people): Holly 3 rings, Alina 2 (trying to catch 3rd), Benry 2, Chase 2, Yve 1, Dan 1 (but can't catch it), NaOnka 0. La Flor (8 people): Jill 3, Kelly B 2 (trying to catch 3rd), Marty 2, Brenda 1, Sash 1, Fabio 1, Jane 1, Purple Kelly 1.
- Hero challenges: As always, hero challenges are scored like a duel (it would be a stretch to call this one a duel, even). So they count as half an individual challenge. Good news for Jill: She gets credit for 1.5 individual challenge wins (for ChW purposes) in 1.5 appearances. (1.0/1.5 for Holly.)
- Tie votes: As always, only the first-round votes count for VFB purposes in a tie. Bad news for Sash, mostly.
La Flor vote count: (First round)
- Kelly B received 3 votes, from Brenda, Fabio, and Purple Kelly.
- Marty received 3 votes, from Jane, Kelly B, and Sash.
- Brenda received 2 votes, from Jill and Marty.
La Flor vote count: (Revote)
- Kelly B received 5 votes, from Brenda, Fabio, Jill, Purple Kelly, and Sash (voted out, 3-3-2; 5-1).
- Marty received 1 vote, from Jane.
Espada vote count:
- Yve received 6 votes, from Dan, Jill, Marty, Tyrone, and Yve (voted out, 6-1).
- Dan received 1 vote, from Yve.
| Immunity challenge | Hero Reward challenge | Tribal council stats | Overall scores | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChA | ChW | Plc | % Fin | ChA | ChW | VFB | VAP | TotV | TCA | SurvSc | SurvAv |
| Benry | 0 | 1 | t-3 | 64% | - | - | 1 | - | 7 | 1 | 1.28 | 7.48 |
| Chase | 0 | 1 | t-3 | 64% | - | - | 1 | - | 7 | 1 | 1.28 | 7.48 |
| Holly | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1 | - | 7 | 1 | 1.36 | 6.85 |
| NaOnka | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14% | - | - | 1 | - | 7 | 1 | 1.25 | 5.15 |
| Alina | 0 | 1 | 2 | 86% | - | - | 1 | - | 7 | 1 | 0.95 | 5.15 |
| Dan | 0 | 1 | 6 | 29% | - | - | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1.05 | 3.24 |
| Yve | 0 | 1 | 5 | 43% | - | - | 0 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0.71 | 1.78 |
| Purple Kelly | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 38% | - | - | 1 | - | 8 | 1 | 1.20 | 7.34 |
| Jill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | - | 8 | 1 | 1.54 | 7.00 |
| Fabio | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 38% | - | - | 1 | - | 8 | 1 | 0.78 | 3.98 |
| Sash | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 38% | - | - | 0 | - | 8 | 1 | 0.78 | 3.98 |
| Jane | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 38% | - | - | 0 | - | 8 | 1 | 0.64 | 3.75 |
| Brenda | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 38% | - | - | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1.14 | 3.59 |
| Marty | 0 | 1 | 3 | 75% | - | - | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0.87 | 3.25 |
| Kelly B | 0 | 1 | 2 | 88% | - | - | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0.61 | 2.34 |
| Tyrone | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.05 | 2.35 |
| Jimmy T | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.87 | 2.20 |
| Jimmy J | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.66 | 1.29 |
| Shannon | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.23 | 0.10 |
| Wendy | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.90 | 0.00 |
Glossary of terms
- Challenge
stats
- ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
- ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
- ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
- SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
- Tribal
Council stats
- VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
- VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
- TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
- TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
- TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
- wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
- Jury
stats
- JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
- TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
- JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
- Overall
scores
- Survival Score (SurvSc). It's simply the sum of Challenge Win% (ChW%) + Tribal Council% (TC%) + Jury Vote%, for a maximum possible score of 2 (3 after the finale).
- Survival Average (SurvAv). It's a simple sum of fractional Challenge Wins (ChW), weighted TC Ratio (wTCR), and (eventually) a weighted Jury%. The latter two max out at six points total, for a theoretical maximum score of around 18 or so.