The second week (three episodes) of SurvivorAU: Australia v The World spanned both the pre- and post-merge, and were a whirlwind (lightning storm?) of newly formed and newly shattered alliances. More big players left the game, but there are still many formidable competitors remaining.

Most satisfyingly, while there are still subclusters of people from the original tribes working together, there was a lot of cross-tribal plotting and counter-plotting in the first two post-merge votes. Nobody wants to see either initial tribe Pagong the other, and it doesn't look like that will happen here. Even if the big, telegenic "alliance" that led the 4-3-3 vote at the merge wasn't as real as it first seemed. (I know, nobody wants to hear that.)

Looking ahead, as big players continue to fall, people like Parvati and Luke (neither of whom voted for each other in either post-merge episode, despite Parvati's threats at the auction) are probably in some trouble, as is Shonee, and maybe also the surprise challenge beast, Kass (currently sporting an otherworldly 88.3% Mean % finish in individual challenges). It's a great season so far, and it's tragic that there will be just one episode left after the upcoming batch of three. Sigh, but yay, but sigh.

Episode 4: A lot of work for a 5-1 boot

On the one hand, there was a lot of intrigue in Episode 4: Both tribes thought they would have to vote someone out, we had a negotiated individual immunity win (will Parvati actually honor her promise?), and there was a lot of drama at Tribal once the World tribe settled down to actually vote someone out.

But it also seemed like a really convoluted way to get rid of just one person, and having tribal immunity decided by firemaking, especially after a grueling individual IC, really seemed to devalue the efforts of the people who fought to the finish. Luke was out in 4.5 groan-filled minutes, and was immune. Kass fought to 1 hr, 24 minutes, and was at risk (theoretically) of missing the jury phase. Not awesome.

As Mike Bloom pointed out on Bluesky, this could have been improved if players (like Tony) had been allowed to volunteer for fire-making, rather than forcing everyone to draw rocks. (Drawing rocks should always be the worst-case scenario.) On both tribes, there were clear hierarchies, and at least Tony (maybe not Shonee) knew he was in trouble if World voted, and would have had the chance to fight for his own survival. Oh well.

Having said all that, Tony absolutely saved the episode with his ridiculous "shoe idol" gambit. Why did he need the shoe tied to a rope, then placed around his neck, when his "fake idol" was a rock in his sock, which apparently wasn't even in the shoe? Who cares! It was perfect as it was!

There's probably some truth to the idea that if he hadn't gone on the offensive and attacked Parvati (guessing correctly?) for finding the key, he might have made it through Tribal. But then again, probably not, the women were obviously smart enough to split 2-2 on Tommi and Tony if they were really worried, and they didn't. Still, by directly taking on Parvati, Tony unwittingly burned his connection to the one person on his tribe who was trying to keep him in. (At least *someone* on that tribe can burn things.) A bad read, but I guess an appropriate outcome.

One calendar-related complaint about all this: Had there actually been a double boot here, this season could have had a final two. Instead, it's almost certainly a final three, which is a bit of a disappointment. I guess they still could, but they would have to *actually* boot two people at one Tribal (or at least in one day), and if they were going to do that, this was the very obvious spot to do so. But they didn't. Oh well. Final three it is.

Episode 5: Parvati's Ta'veren luck

In the Wheel of Time series (which was adapted for TV by Survivor: Guatemala's Rafe Judkins ... but sadly recently canceled), certain (main) characters are ta'veren, people so important to the world, they change the course of history as they move through it, either bringing misfortune to wherever they are, like a magnet, or having incredibly good luck. Parvati's playing a powerful game, but she's also been incredibly lucky - while also doing things that maybe drive that luck in her direction.

She came into the game *heavily* insulated by connections to people from outside the (Australian) game - a final three alliancemate in Cirie, a third and more-threatening US alumnus in Tony, a built-in female majority on her starting tribe, and most importantly, she'd also been in a tight alliance with David on a whole other show (Deal or No Deal Island), a connection nobody else knew about. The latter ended up not affecting the season, as David was first out from the Aussie tribe. But this amount of starting armor undoubtedly gave her a leg up over someone less well-known, like Rob Bentele.

But she's also been lucky in the game itself: She found the key for the box, after almost missing it completely. Everyone who helped her open it apparently agreed the idol (at Tribal) should be hers, and allowed her to grab it (it's hard to believe someone like Cirie or Lisa was not aware she had lagged behind at the Ep4 Tribal).

Then in Episode 5's merge/auction, her imposing presence both made her a target and rewarded her for being one - once again, bending the luck in her own favor. Luke sent her back to camp (she *nearly* talked him out of it, just by telling him he was making a mistake, which was extremely impressive), where she was given a glass jar full of cookies. Fans of AU8: Heroes v Villains would immediately suspect such an item might contain an advantage (it did), but Parvati seemed to have no clue, until she accidentally shattered the glass container while trying to bury it, then noticed the scroll in the debris. (It's an idol-steal advantage, which seems like overkill, but also may be useless this season - last season when it debuted, there had just been a challenge featuring two very public idols ... no such luck here, unless Kirby's popcorn had an idol she didn't notice.)

So far, Parvati has seemed like the season's center of gravity. Kirby sought her out for an alliance even before the merge. Shonee and Sarah both wanted the same after the merge. She has an idol and a potential second one via her advantage. Nobody has voted against her yet. She's the second-most likely person to win every remaining challenge (after Kass). She has an extremely close ally in Cirie, and there are only five boots left. Her chances of reaching the finals are looking really, really good.

Despite that, the preview for next week (tomorrow, by the time this is published) shows Parvati wearing her idol at Tribal Council, and stating she isn't sure whether she will play it for herself, or for Cirie. On the one hand, this looks like things have gone south for Parvati after (as she worried) bigger threats like Tony and Kirby were removed. But it could *also* be an attempt to weaponize her advantage. For it to work to her advantage, she needs to know who has an idol before voting begins. Publicly flaunting her own idol *might* goad an idol-holder (more likely Luke than Kass, I would guess) to respond with their own chest-thumping move of bringing theirs out. (At which time ... yoink!) It seems like it has a slim chance of working, but so did the shoe idol. So maybe?

Anyway, Episode's 5 main story was the resolution of the Week 1 friends-to-frenemies storyline between Sarah and Kirby. Sarah went out first (but is at least first juror), and as is often the case when Big Rivals are highlighted in Survivor, Kirby was immediately ousted in the next episode. What was odd about the Sarah boot was the made-for-TV moment of an apparent new Black Widow Brigade alliance, with Parvati and Cirie being joined by Shonee and Kirby. On the one hand: Yay for the nod back to one of the most memorable moments in (US) Survivor history. On the other hand, was it even a real thing that actually happened?

True, Kirby, Shonee, Parvati and Cirie did indeed all vote for the same person (Sarah) at the Episode 5 Tribal. What this framing hid, however, was that the International Three (Lisa, Kass, Tommi) were pretty clearly in on the plan (there was a scene of Cirie filling them in before Tribal, plus Lisa's hilariously tongue-in-cheek "If you can't trust Cirie and Parvati" voting confessional), but just voting Janine as a hedge against an idol. And the "Black Widows, OMG!" stuff felt especially ephemeral when Shonee immediately flipped back to working with Luke in the next episode, and Cirie (and eventually Parvati) turned on Kirby.

It's too bad the scheduling didn't allow for the weeklong break to come after this massive Tribal in Episode 5, allowing fans to speculate on the longevity and power of BWB 2.0, but oh well. The rushed delivery of moving on to Episode 6 the very next night undermined the fan service of Episode 5's (mostly misleading) story, but I guess at least it also spared us a week of online discourse like "Are the new Black Widows the greatest alliance this season, or in the history of alliances?" The schedule gives, the schedule takes.

Episode 6: Is Kirby's approach actually an advantage in a returnee season?

Kirby famously didn't watch Survivor before playing AU9: Titans v Rebels, has apparently made minimal attempts to catch up on what she's missed, and mostly didn't know who any of these people were, except the ones she'd met in person or knew beforehand (Luke). As she and others have mentioned in exit interviews, this allows her to see everyone as people, and try to connect with them genuinely - avoiding any of the misconceptions that might emerge from people who have been edited as characters on a game show. She also (as Sarah mentions in her exit interview with Shannon Guss), doesn't start the game steeped in the mostly unwritten (although there certainly are some written ones) strategic rules and theories of gameplay. That means she rarely overthinks things, but rather acts instinctively, based on what people have said or done directly. In an all-star returning player season like this, is it possible that's actually an advantage?

This seems like a weird inversion of something that appears empirically true: On US returnee seasons, players who are (relatively) unknown to the rest of the cast (Rupert in S8: All-Stars, James and Amanda in S16: Micronesia) or complete unknowns (Russell in S20: Heroes vs Villains, Zeke and Michaela in S34: Game Changers) tend to do quite well. Nobody has reason to fear them, not having seen their (full) seasons, and they come in with fewer connections than the longtime veterans generally do. Kirby sort of has the latter benefit (by choice), but she also enters the game having a blank slate as to who she's willing to work with. It helps that she enjoys working with big, bold players, and the cast is full of them. As Sarah attests in her exits, Kirby also has a magnetic charisma that pulls in those around her. This approach may not work for everyone, but it clearly works pretty well for Kirby ... or at least it did until people like Cirie started picking up on Kirby's threat level.

Kirby (wisely) seems to want to take a bit of time off before playing again, so maybe her reputation will die down a bit as other big players become SurvivorAU stars. But you have to wonder if Kirby will now forever have a "big threat" target attached to herself in the future. She's clearly a more-than-capable player. Hopefully she'll find a scenario where playing big doesn't set her apart, and she'll have a better shot at winning. (But it probably wouldn't hurt to keep tabs on the competition going forward, or maybe adopt Tony's Winners at War strategy of holding back early?)

Shorter takes

Does Parvati still owe Kass a win? - Way back in Episode 4 (before the merge, remember that?) Parvati negotiated herself an individual immunity win by promising to let Kass win the next endurance challenge. Kass complied ... and then in Episode 6, it was another Kass-Parv showdown, which raised the question of whether Parvati would honor her end of the deal. (Parvati shushed JLP when he brought it up, which makes two straight seasons in which he's been told to shut up during an immunity challenge - sadly, he won't get a chance at three.)

It's difficult to see Parvati's second place finish here as a fulfilment of that promise: Parvati was planning to vote out Kass at that time, and tried her best to win it herself. Probably a missed opportunity on Parvati's part here - she could have devalued Kass's win by offering to drop as soon as she (Parvati) knew she was about to drop out anyway, AND been seen as trustworthy. Now she'll probably be asked at some future time, and will have to reneg on her deal. Not great!

The one that got away - Speaking of challenges and big moments, something of a Survivor first in the first post-merge challenge, "Last Gasp," as it had to be called off mid-challenge due to lightning. (Then was unable to resume because the tide came in.) It felt like the show did the best it could have in switching over to a simple rock draw to determine who wore the necklace. Rob Cesternino suggested the four simply go under water below the submerged Last Gasp grates, and the last one still under wins ... not bad, but I'm guessing maybe the lightning threat wasn't completely past, an that was off limits? I dunno. As always, rock draws should never be the first choice. Hopefully it wasn't here. (But yay for Tommi, anyway.)