Entering last week’s episode, Mike White figured to be the safest one on his tribe. Stephenie had just lost her trusted ally Q. Ozzy and Stephenie both still wanted Angelina gone, and Emily promised Ozzy she’d help boot Angelina next. But when the votes were read, there was Mike White being blindsided in a plan engineered by his friend and S37: David vs. Goliath castmate, Christian. Mike White was trying to manipulate Christian by pointing out similarities between Emily and Gabby from S37. Mike warned Christian that Emily will come after him, just like Gabby did (even though Gabby’s attempt failed). Mike was so confident he’d convinced Christian to vote Emily out, he didn’t even bring his bag to Tribal Council.

The only problem was that Christian knew Mike White’s game better than Mike thought he did, and swiftly turned the tables on his friend. This brings up an interesting dilemma in seasons that feature returning players with relationships outside of the game. Sometimes the person most capable of blindsiding you is the one who knows you the best and you trust the most. This is also why it’s much harder for me to anticipate moves in an all-returning player season than in an all-rookie season. I thought this would be a good time to take a look back at a few reasons why sometimes a good friend can be your worst enemy in Survivor.

The earliest examples of course come from S8: All-Stars. Despite the fact that none of these players anticipated an all-returning player season and probably didn’t pre game as hard as today’s players do, there were still some game moves affected by existing relationships.

We all know how Boston Rob appealed to his friendship with Lex to save Amber after swap. Rob promised to return the favor and of course lied to Lex claiming never to have made that promise at the merge when Lex was voted out. But there were other relationships/friendships all over that cast. Ethan confirmed he’d dated Jenna Lewis, and Amber, and of course dated Jenna Morasca for a long time. Kathy Vavrick-O’Brien and Rob Cesternino were also friends with Boston Rob, pre-All-Stars. Just last week, Tina Wesson confirmed she tried to pass notes to Rupert while at Ponderosa before the game began. Ethan’s relationships may have been why he was the last winner removed. He of course was also friends with Lex from playing together in S3 Africa, but that didn’t stop Lex from writing Ethan’s name down. Friendship only went so far with Lex, who said, “This is a business trip” as the game began.

In S11: Guatemala, Stephenie and Bobby Jon both returned after playing together in S10: Palau. They maintained a friendship in the six months between ending filming on Palau and the start of Guatemala. Their relationship became a factor when Bobby Jon’s outnumbered tribe merged with Stephenie’s. As the “leader” of his tribe, Bobby Jon was a sitting duck, but Stephenie respected his request to make sure he made it through the first vote to get a seat on the Jury. It also put a few more bucks into Bobby Jon’s pocket than merge boot Brandon Bellinger.

In S16: Micronesia, there were three sets of existing relationships in play. Ami Cusack and Eliza Orlins were alliance partners in S9: Vanuatu, Ozzy, Parvati Shallow and Jonathan Penner all played together in S13: Cook Islands, and Amanda Kimmel and James Clement had just played together in the previous season in S15: China. Penner took dead aim at Parvati at the start. Parvati tried and failed to rally support against Penner, who was eventually medevaced. A reluctant Parvati helped blindside Ozzy at the merge. Ami and Eliza initially aligned together despite Eliza betraying Ami in Vanuatu. They were separated at a swap, then Ami was voted out pre-merge. James and Amanda were the only previous partners who stuck together 100%, and even at that, Amanda was part of a women’s alliance that excluded James.

In S20: Heroes vs. Villains, S7: Pearl Islands winner Sandra Diaz-Twine was reunited with alliance partner Rupert, but had no problem writing his name down and saying, “I’ll write your name again, and if I’m up there in the final 3, you’ll still give me your million- dollar vote.” She was right. And of course, Amanda and Parvati became very close friends after being partners in Micronesia, even appearing in a movie together in 2009. They tried working together after the HvV merge but then Amanda tried to flush Parvati’s Idol and fed her a very transparent lie. Parvati saw through the lie and gave Idols to Jerri and Sandra, then helped vote Amanda out at the next Tribal Council. Parvati knew Amanda well enough to know when she was lying. While on the Ponderosa, Amanda found out from subsequent jurors that Parvati was trashing and mocking her to the remaining players. Each new juror told Amanda about a new Parvati insult. By the time Parvati reached Final Tribal Council, Amanda was fuming. Amanda voted with the other Heroes jurors and Courtney to give the win to Sandra. Parvati and Amanda didn’t speak for some time after that season.

I think the best example of a friend actually being a foe happened in S27: Blood vs. Water. Aras Baskauskas and Gervase Petersen had been friends for years. They planned on helping each other through the entire season. In fact, in the first Immunity Challenge, Aras helped Gervase eliminate his reputation for being good at challenges. Gervase pretended to be a horrible swimmer, and “floundered” in the water, putting his tribe way behind. Aras was no stranger to sandbagging, having earlier bragged about doing it in S12 Panama Exile Island. During that challenge, Aras, swam back to “rescue” Gervase and help him finish the swimming portion. Both were smiling while doing it. There was even a Secret Scene later that season in which Gervase explained the entire play. The name of that scene was “I CAN Swim.”

But what Aras didn’t plan on was those who saw their loved ones voted out early (Gervase, Tyson, Caleb, Hayden & Monica) would unite against the remaining intact loved ones pairs. Gervase and Tyson began plotting against Aras long before the merge. Aras and his brother Vytas stood out as by far the most intimidating pair. So, when Vytas won the first Individual Immunity Challenge, Aras was blindsided and sent to Exile Island. Aras never saw it coming. He was suspicious of Tyson but never figured his friend Gervase would turn on him.

I think something similar happened with Mike White and Christian. Many fans (including myself) thought Mike would at least make it to the merge because so many players would be hoping to get cast on >The White Lotus. Mike sure was confident Christian wouldn’t move against him. Mike never considered that Christian, whom he’d outwitted in S37, would by hyper-aware of making sure that wouldn’t happen again. Mike also didn’t realize that since Christian had already made an appearance on The White Lotus, he was immune to that temptation.

Existing relationships also played a factor in S31: Cambodia, and S40: Winners at War, but I don’t recall any betrayals or blindsides on the level of Christian vs Mike or Gervase vs Aras. Wendell Holland and Michele Fitzgerald had dated and broken up before WaW. They had a pregame alliance with Nick Wilson. Michele let Parvati talk her into voting against Wendell, but he prevailed at that vote when Parvati was sent to Exile. Tony and Sarah pulled off the opposite move. Most thought Sarah was still angry with Tony because he betrayed the “Cop oath” Sarah thought her fellow police officer would honor in S28: Cagayan. But most of the WaW players were unaware they’d made up. Tony and Sarah kept their reconciliation a secret and rode the most loyal partnership into the WaW final 4. But Tony did leave Sarah out of the biggest move of the season when he blindsided Sophie. Tony saw the two of them getting close and suspected they’d work against him.

Should Christian be keeping a closer eye on his pregame friends Emily and Angelina? He will if he’s smart. Charlie, Coach and Dee have hung out with Ben from S46. Will they take aim at each other? Should Cirie be worried about Ozz ... naah, never mind. Ozzy can’t plan a blindside unless everyone goes fishing with him.

By the way, if you’ve been watching the NCAA Basketball Tournament, you’ve been hearing the Zac Brown Band’s song “Give It Away” coming in and out of commercial breaks. I can hear the fan base screaming at the screen now.

Back to this season. I watched and rewatched Genevieve’s second Idol find to see if she was “nudged” to the right spot. My results are inconclusive. It could be the editing, but when she found it, the first cut was of Genevieve looking on the ground to her right. She turns to her left and spots the Idol. A closeup shot of the Idol showed it was tucked in between palm fronds at about ankle height. But when she picked it up, the Idol was much higher up between palm fronds about thigh high. These of course could merely be reshoots of something the cameras missed the first time. I’d be more suspicious if we first saw Genevieve walking away from the cameras, then suddenly walking back towards them just before finding the Idol. But we do know Production wants all of these Idols to be found too.

When Ozzy gets left out of a vote, his pattern is to blow up, realize blowing up was a dumb move, then come back into the fold. He has done this in every season he has played except S34: Game Changers. I’m guessing he calms down before the next morning and won’t be mad at Christian for long at all.

With two tribes going to Tribal Council tonight, it seems certain Ozzy will be back there again tonight. I’m thinking he’ll still want Angelina gone, and Stephenie will keep him focused on that target. So the question is which of the other 2 tribes will go? I still think the combination of Jonathan’s strength and Kamilla’s puzzle brain will keep Cila safe, so we’re likely to see the Genevieve vs Aubry war resolved tonight. Aubry will be a fool if she doesn’t play her Idol. She has seen too many warning signs to ignore.

And away we go…

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Right off the bat, I reminded myself that Genevieve and Colby don’t know Aubry has an Idol yet. Q and Stephenie didn’t find out until after the swap, so unless they shared that info at the last challenge, Genevieve and Colby will think Aubry is an unarmed sitting duck.

Ozzy is pretending he’s not mad. Hmm ... I don’t buy it. Neither does Christian. Christian is smart to realize Ozzy is looking at him but talking to Cochran.

And Ozzy says in confessional “Would I have voted out Mike White? No, I would have blown up their game,” which confirms Christian made the right call. I still say Ozzy will come back into the fold, just like he did in S13: Cook Islands, S16: Micronesia, and S34: Game Changers. He also did in S23: South Pacific when his tribe removed his pocket vote Elyse, but he didn’t embrace Cochran after the merge.

Ozzy is meditating? Aras did that in S27: Bood vs. Water too. He got the overhead helicopter (now a drone) “Hero” shot while he did it. Then he got blindsided.

Ozzy: “My ocean of thought is churning, and there’s waves crashing through this awareness.” Good lord, he’s starting to sound like Coach. What’s next, are we gonna see him doing some “Ozzy-Chi” on the sand?

And sure enough, Ozzy is apologizing to Christian the next morning. He’s done that before. We’ll see if he’s being sincere.

FWAP!!!

Ozzy doesn’t realize Stephenie is lying to his face, trying to save herself until she can reunite with Colby and Genevieve. She’s had a lot of good luck falling her way on this swapped tribe.

Wow, who’d have figured Devens would be the one Jonathan trusts the most between the three non-Kalo members? In pregame interviews, more players listed Devens as a “foe” than a friend. Nine players, including Dee, Jonathan, Rizo, Charlie, and Kamilla said they didn’t trust him. This means Devens is playing better than he did the first time around. Not once have we seen anyone targeting him, except maybe Joe, who didn’t list him as a “friend” or a “foe.”

FWAP!!!

It’s interesting that Charlie waited for Jonathan to throw out Rizo’s name first. Charlie and Jonathan want Rizo gone, but Dee realizes the importance of forming a relationship with everyone. This still hinges on Kamilla. Does she want to work with Cirie? Will she be open to embracing Cirie and Rizo? I think she’ll do the smart thing and tell everyone “yes,” then make a decision later.

Whether or not Dee is being sincere with Rizo, she has convinced him not to work against her. Yeah, Dee is a smart player.

My definition of “irony” is Coach saying he’s socially aware.

Even in confessional, Coach sets up a lie, saying “To get me, Colby and Joe somewhat near the end would be quite an accomplishment.” My first thought here is Coach will cut one or both of them to sit next to a goat at the end if he can. Coach pitched the same thing in S18: Tocantins to Jerry, Brendan, Tyson and J.T. He wrote Jerry and Brendan’s names down, and hinted he’d do the same to J.T.

Coach to Joe: “You’re the most resolute and stalwart person to play this game, including myself.” My translation: “You lie less than I do.” Joe seems to be buying it, but Colby is trying not to crack up when Coach pitches him. Is he laughing with Coach or AT Coach?

Coach is giving out nicknames now? Is he emulating “the Specialist” Phillip Sheppard, who handed out nicknames left and right in S26: Caramoan.

And right on cue, Coach lies his ass off and tells Aubry he’d love to work with her. In confessional, he says, “I’m finally myself! This is finally me, world!” Funny, I’m seeing the same Coach I’ve always seen.

Charlie tries to lie to Rizo, and Rizo sees through it. Charlie’s move backfires and he turns Rizo against him. Rizo is a smart strategist, I said as much last season. I still think he’d rather be famous more than being a winner. But props to him for seeing through Charlie’s lie. I don’t understand why Charlie had to bring up this subject at all. It would be better to just let Rizo keep thinking his secret was safe with Charlie.

Dee in confessional: “I thought Charlie was the most dangerous player here. I actually think he’s the dumbest player here.” Don’t get mad at me Charlie, Dee said it. I just agreed with it.

Cirie’s strong social game has lured Rizo in as he tells her about the Idol. But dammit, I still want to know how Kamilla feels about it. Who does she want out, and why? Maybe Zac Brown knows.

Colby is sitting out of this challenge? That’s a bad sign for Genevieve. Now I think this tribe might lose this mostly physical challenge. Even with a bad foot I think he could toss sandbags or throw a grappling hook better than Aubry or Chrissy. Jonathan and Ozzy are making Joe look pretty bad so far.

Joe seems gassed. The Audio Dept. turned the sounds of his gasps up to 11.

Charlie: “I’ve never seen Joe this gassed.” Is there an echo in here.

Probst called him “Hubicki” again.

Tiffany gets to toss first. She did this challenge in S46. Q lost it that season by missing a lot of tosses.

Nice comeback for Kalo. Tiffany was the MVP. She made up the time Joe lost when she opened those bags of coconuts so quickly. She landed a sandbag too. Coach also did well with the grappling hook. The Genevieve vs Aubry war will continue, but the Rizo vs Charlie war takes center stage. Since Genevieve isn’t going to Tribal Council, we don’t have to wonder if she’d get the Idol before Tribal Council if Rizo gets booted. I don’t think Ozzy’s in trouble.

Who has to go to Tribal Council first?

FINALLY, we get to hear from Kamilla! Rizo pitches her with a lie about Kyle endorsing him. Is she buying it?

Kamilla in confessional: “I’ll pretend to believe it for now.” Kamilla is a smart player. What did I tell you? I knew she’d play it this way.

Charlie thinks he has his army assembled. He gets to Kamilla after Rizo, and she plays dumb. Kamilla: “Charlie’s game is too slow.” I said it last week. Charlie should have been recruiting the women even before that talent show. This vote will swing on Kamilla’s instincts.

Charlie in confessional: “Right now, there’s not all that much strategy going on because we’re all ready to fire our shots at Rizo.” Charlie sure sounds comfortable.

Everyone on Vatu seems like they’re on board with booting Angelina. Stephenie makes the bad move of agreeing to be the decoy vote. Since Angelina voted for Emily, why not ask Emily to be the decoy? How will Emily screw up the plan this time around?

Ozzy wants Christian’s Shot in the Dark, and he thinks Christian will hand it over? That’s a pretty weak play. But it does present Christian with a new challenge. How does he lie his way out of this?

I don’t know which line from Christian I liked better: “I had no idea what a Polly Prissypants” Ozzy was.” Or “Dick head.” My dog has been awakened by my spontaneous burst of laughter again. Thanks, Christian.

Emily blindsides Ozzy at the last vote, and now he’s dedicated to keeping her on his side, even asking her to remove Christian. Emily wanted Ozzy gone but is uber-concerned about keeping his trust.

FWAP!!! FWAP!!!

Ozzy asks Emily, Angelina and Stephenie to boot Christian. But instead of giving him a convincing “yes,” like Kamilla gave to Rizo and Charlie, Angelina tells Ozzy, “I’m just weighing all the options.” And in confessional, Angelina thinks she’s in full control of this vote. Angelina is really bad at this game. Failure to say anything but “yes” is equal to saying “I’m thinking of voting against you.”

Emily sides with Christian and blows up Ozzy’s plan. I’m telling you Christian, even though Emily just sold Ozzy out to you, she’s going to do the same thing to you. It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when she’ll do it. You need to plan her removal NOW!

FWAP!!!

Will Ozzy get blindsided while holding an Idol again?

Christian in confessional: “I’ve been working my tail off trying to reestablish trust with Ozzy, and it hurts me to my core. That’s so anodyne.” Dude, you’re too damn smart. I have no problem admitting I had to look up that word.

Christian gambles with his Shot in the Dark, which really isn’t that valuable anyway. Who knew those dice had each player’s name on them?

And now Ozzy is considering working with Christian again?

FWAP!!!

Rizo tells Cirie he has an Idol, then Cirie tells Rizo she’s got an Extra Vote? WHY Cirie WHY????? I’m so disappointed! He didn’t need to know that! Now he has a good reason to put a target on you later on. But who knows? Maybe Rizo is such a huge Cirie fan he won’t betray her.

My dog wasn’t asleep long enough for my groan to wake her up. She’s still awake from the “Dickhead” line.

Right on Cue, Rizo says, “I want to be the greatest player of all time.” Yeah, it’s more important to him to be famous than to be a winner.

We find out from Devens that Savannah blew up his S49 game and told her tribe about Rizo’s multiple Idol bluffs.

But Kamilla makes me proud by keeping her mouth shut.

Christian is safe, and Survivor already told us why. At the end of last season, the teaser for S50 showed Christian saying, “My fate in the game might be decided by Jimmy Fallon.” We haven’t seen him saying that yet this season (thanks again, Pedro), so we know Angelina is a goner. My only question is will Ozzy return Christian’s Shot in the Dark ...

... and who goes to Tribal Council first.

Vatu goes first. This will be anti-climactic.

I appreciate Probst’s attempt at impersonations. His Jonathan wasn’t good, but his Colby and Christian were pretty spot on. I want to see him do Phillip. Feathers optional.

I’m thinking this will be a 4-1 gang tackle on Angelina.

Probst asks Angelina, “How will this tribe be different after tonight.” I don’t have the data, but I think he has asked that question to the player who gets booted a LOT. If he asks you that question, play your Idol or your Shot in the Dark.

Yep, 4-1.

Did Angelina really ask Emily, “Did you vote for me?” Probst only showed four votes. If two people had voted for Stephenie, he definitely would have shown that other vote.

Entering this season, Angelina topped my “Worst Players Ever” list, and she didn’t do anything to change that status. She didn’t play worse than last time, she just didn’t play at all. She depended on Mike and Christian to keep her safe. She didn’t play an active role at all.

Tribal Council #2. Will Kamilla teach Rizo how a good player reacts to someone who grandstands, or will she cut Charlie loose for playing slower than she’d like? I think Charlie sunk his own ship with his weak play on Rizo.

Ironically, I think the only thing that will save Rizo is an Idol bluff that fools Kamilla.

Hearing all this talk about Rizo’s game hints he’s leaving. But I’m thinking about how well Dee and Cirie played this. They should be the top two targets, yet nobody brought up their names at all.

Now I understand why we didn’t see how Kamilla feels about Cirie. If we knew, this vote would be as anti-climactic as Angelina’s.

Rizo holds on to his Idol. There will be suspense.

Bye Charlie.

By their reactions, I already know Devens and Jonathan were left out. This makes me wonder why Devens and Cirie didn’t compare notes. I think Kamilla decided to play with more dependable partners Dee and Cirie. And I’m loving that!

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Recap

I give credit where it’s due. Rizo figured out how to prevail at this vote. He earned trust very quickly from Cirie, Kamilla and Dee. Props to the Rizgod, even though I still dislike his grandstanding.

But I also have to repeat that Charlie sunk his own ship. By telling Rizo such a transparent lie, he fired a warning shot and completely destroyed the element of surprise he had on his side. He also waited way too long to get his tribe’s women on his side.

In S46, I saw Charlie mostly as a follower. The only move I saw him initiate was asking Maria to side with him, Ben and Tim instead of his tribe’s women. But that move only worked because Jem got too aggressive and spooked Maria. The rest of the season, all of the moves that kept Charlie alive were initiated by either Maria or Kenzie. He lost primarily because his jurors actually saw some of Kenzie’s moves but were in the dark about Charlie’s. Charlie didn’t make it on my “Best Players” list because of this. And since the first move I saw him instigate totally backfired, I feel validated in my initial conclusion.

On one hand, booting Angelina seems unnecessary for Ozzy and Emily because she’s an easy pocket vote who can’t win the game. They’re fools for thinking Stephenie will stick with them. But it’s a smart damage control vote for Christian because it completely removes the DvG suspicion from him. Most in the game will realize he has lost his two closest friends and is less of a threat.

This was an interesting contrast on how to be the swing vote. Kamilla gave an immediate and convincing “yes” when both sides pitched her. She filled them with confidence and they stopped plotting. But Angelina wasn’t as convincing. She gave Ozzy reason to reconsider going after Christian. Play like Kamilla. Don’t play like Angelina.

I was surprised to see Joe struggling so much in the challenge. After eating so well at the Zac Brown café, I expected him to do better. Granted, nobody swims like Ozzy, and Jonathan is great at everything that doesn’t have a puzzle, but Joe should have been closer than he was, especially on a full stomach. He made up for it with the sandbags, though.

And speaking of Jonathan, this vote didn’t work out so well for him. Being left out of the loop by Kamilla and Dee reduces his options at the merge since he didn’t have Tiffany on original Kalo either. He’s almost forced to reconnect with Coach and Chrissy now, and they have other viable options that don’t include him.

Wow, a 17-person merge. That’s got to be a record. The possibilities are endless here. The most intriguing to me is Christian, Devens, Cirie and Emily recruiting Aubry by filling her in on the Idol. Aubry in turn will bring Tiffany into the fold. Tiffany and Cirie could in turn bring in Dee, Kamilla and Rizo. Ozzy will go straight back to Cirie. That group of 10 could have all three Idols, and an Extra Vote.

It’s pretty easy to see Stephenie running right back to Colby and Genevieve, who’ll then make her part of the “integrity” crew with Joe, Coach and Chrissy. That would leave Jonathan on an island, unless he decides to take a mid-level position with the “integrity” guys.

I wonder if that will make Chrissy the default merge boot since she’s unarmed and has already annoyed several players. With Angelina gone, she’s the most annoying player left.

But what if it’s a fake merge, like in S5: Thailand? Or what if they just put the same three tribes on the same beach like in S24: One World? Would any of these players see that coming?

Christian, Ozzy and Emily have a chance to tie Denise’s record of attending every Tribal Council in a season. And since there are more players this season, they might attend more than she did in S25: Philippines.

What do you think? Did Charlie screw up his own plan by waiting too long to implement it? Was his pitch just too awkward and transparent? Should Ozzy or Christian have removed Stephenie instead since Angelina would be drifting without a rudder? When should Christian remove Emily? How will that phony Idol or Cirie’s Extra vote come into play? Is Rizo destined to be blindsided by Cirie, Dee and Kamilla? What happens to the Aubry vs Genevieve war now? Did Ozzy return Christian’s Shot in the Dark (I didn’t look in my rewatch, and it’s past midnight. I’ll check later)? Were Probst’s impressions any good? Let me know in the comments.