Survivor released 90% of the cast of season 50 in May. They probably figured the information would leak out anyway, so they revealed 22 of the record 24 cast members, holding back two members from season 49 who’ll be the first to play in back-to-back seasons since Zeke and Michaela in S33: Millenials vs Gen X and S34: Game Changers. The cast includes players spanning from season 1 in Borneo to season 49, but curiously none from seasons 21 – 31 (save for a few who made return appearances in Caramoan, Blood vs Water and Cambodia).

Like every fan, there are several players I’m disappointed didn’t make the cut. I’ve long since wanted to see Earl test his skills again, and I still think Vecepia’s innovative rookie game is deserving of a second appearance. Jonathan Penner still reigns as the best confessional narrator of all time. It feels incomplete without Jerri aka the first Survivor villain. A cleaned-up Todd would have been fun to see play again. After Sabrina’s personal tragedies took her out of the running for Cambodia, I was pulling for her too. She and Carolyn Rivera could have fulfilled my desire to see an older woman finally prevail. I’m also disappointed my two favorite New Era players Jesse and Omar missed the cut. But enough venting. It’s time to focus on those who made it in. Oh wait, one more gripe. How the hell did Carolyn Wiger not make the cut? She’s the most memorable player of the New Era by far! Did she turn it down?

So, in anticipation of the first all-returning player season since Winners at War, I’ll do a review of each player in the cast, including their best moves, worst moves, and the adjustments I think they’ll need to make to improve on their past performances.

As many of you know, I keep a ton of lists about Survivor players – Bonehead moves, Best player ever, Best player who didn’t win, Indecisive swing votes, those labeled as “leaders,” Sandbaggers, etc. For this preview, I’ll include the ranking I’ve given to each player if they’ve earned a placement on any of my lists. For this first edition, it'll be just the players from Borneo through Kaoh Rong - they're the first chronologically, and also the only contestants who have already played more than once.

Since everyone was a Survivor newbie in season 1, they were all very game-naïve. All of them were learning the game as they were playing it, and none of them had gotten to watch the game on TV before playing, either. Just the same, Jenna made sure her voice was heard in the voting decisions early on, after B.B. left first on her Pagong tribe. Ramona had gotten sick in the first few days and couldn’t contribute much in challenges or around camp. It was Jenna’s suggestion to remove her, even though Ramona said she was feeling better. While her Pagong tribe saw Gretchen as their “leader,” Jenna was chosen to meet with Sean from the Tagi tribe for an overnight summit to decide which camp would be used for the merge. Jenna had her tribe’s trust. Final 9 gave Jenna her most memorable moment when she was crushed to find out her family video hadn’t arrived in time. The next day, Richard celebrated his birthday by walking around in his birthday suit, and Jenna was his loudest critic. Her complaints, justified or not, started getting on people’s nerves, and some labeled her as annoying.

Jenna saw how Dr. Sean’s “alphabetical” voting strategy meant Greg was a target, so she voted for him. She also discovered Richard’s four-person voting alliance one vote later and came up with the strategy that could beat it. She told Sean if he stuck to his plan, he’d be doomed to a 5th place finish when the alliance voted him out. But Sean stubbornly insisted there was no alliance, and his plan was the only fair way to play. So, when Rudy won Immunity, Sean announced he’d be voting for Jenna instead of bouncing back to Gervase who’d saved himself with an earlier Immunity win. Had she been able to flip Sean and take Rich out at final 8, she might have destroyed Richard’s alliance and been in charge of her own alliance. But she couldn’t sway Sean and became the 3rd member of the Pagonging. Sean finished 5th, just like Jenna said he would.

In All-Stars, Jenna made the cast when Colleen Haskell and Elisabeth Hasselbeck turned it down. Jenna adjusted her approach and played a much stronger game from start to finish. She knew the game much better and came in with a strong plan. She established the voting culture right away, leading the push to remove all the previous winners first. That mindset carried over to other high-profile players as everyone in the All-Stars final 7 missed the final 3 the first time around. Jenna bonded quickly with Rupert who became her #1 partner.

After a swap, Jenna and Rupert aligned with Boston Rob and Amber. Jenna rode the safety of that alliance through to the final 6, then took aim at Boston Rob. However, her pitch to Big Tom came much too late, as he’d already committed to sticking with Rob and Amber. When Rob manipulated a fight between Tom and Rupert, Jenna lost any chance at uniting them against Rob and Amber. Jenna stuck around when Rob broke his word to Tom (losing his Jury vote in the process) and voted Tom out. Jenna still wanted either Rob or Amber gone but feared pulling a rock if there was a tie at final 4, so she helped vote Rupert out. Jenna knew her only chance was to win final 4 Immunity, but she couldn’t outlast Rob and Amber and got voted out, finishing 3rd.

Outlook: Jenna has shown the awareness to not only recognize the best move, but the ability to rally the troops and create reasons to target others. Working in her favor is the long gap between her appearances. Will anyone be worried about someone who hasn’t played Survivor since 2003? I see her positioned similarly to Kelly Wiglesworth in Cambodia. Most will be happy to have her around and won’t want her gone anytime soon unless her annoying side surfaces again. But unlike Kelly, Jenna will sneak up on them strategically. If she gets an alliance behind her, she could be calling the shots without anyone knowing she’s doing it. Jenna has never played with Idols or other Advantages (Extra Votes, Knowledge Without Power etc.), so she’ll have to adjust to those trinkets and the accelerated game play if it’s less than a 39-day game, which seems likely.

Colby totally dominated the physical game in The Australian Outback, setting the record that still stands today with five Individual Immunity wins (four physical and one trivia Immunity Challenge). He was a decent strategist that season too, wisely realizing he didn’t want to play while partnered with irritating Jerri and coattail rider Amber. So, he switched to join the smarter Tina and Keith. The tribes entered the merge with even numbers. In season 2, one of the tiebreakers was previous votes cast against you. At the Immunity Challenge, Colby stepped down so Keith, who’d received votes against him earlier, wouldn’t be vulnerable. He viewed it as “The right thing to do.” Colby was big on “doing the right thing,” which would be a defining theme for his Survivor strategy. Colby won the tiebreaker against Jeff Varner but now had five votes against him.

Colby got tired of Jerri and took a few nasty verbal shots at her along the way. He stayed loyal to Tina and Keith to the end, but did butt heads with Tina when he wanted Rodger gone. Tina won that battle and sent Amber home instead. Colby thought “the right thing” was to remain tribe loyal. Ultimately, Tina’s strategic brain was better than Colby’s, and she manipulated him into committing the biggest bonehead move in Survivor history (until Woo in season 28). Tina convinced Colby “the right thing” to do was to prevent the less-deserving Keith from making the finals. Colby bought it and took Tina instead of Keith, whom he would have beaten easily. Colby had a slight nasty streak, which cost him Jerri’s vote. He lost the million to Tina by one vote. Jerri voted for Tina.

In All-Stars, Colby benefited from Jenna Lewis’ plan to remove the former winners first. But he couldn’t overcome his reputation as a dominant physical player, and some of his nasty comments came back to haunt him. There was still tension between Colby and Jerri. After a swap, they ended up on the same tribe. Colby’s nasty streak surfaced again, and this time contributed to his exit. Colby told Shii-Ann she didn’t deserve to be an All-Star. A pissed off Shii-Ann connected with Jerri, who was happy to help remove “Captain America.” They convinced the tribe to boot Colby instead of former winner Ethan to prevent another post-merge Immunity streak for Colby. Jerri was proud to last longer than Colby this time around.

Colby did much better in Heroes vs. Villains, finishing 5th as the last member of the Heroes Tribe. Physically, he was a shadow of his former self, performing so badly James even said “It’s like Superman is wearing a girdle. Today he got beat by a gimp and a fat man, and Coach manhandled him earlier. He’s moping around camp like he doesn’t want to be here.” This actually made me wonder if his bad performances, and moping was intentional. Was Colby sandbagging it to eliminate the reason he was targeted in All-Stars? If so, it was a smart move but still wasn’t enough to get a win. His bad strategic brain caused him to: 1) endorse J.T.’s plan to give an Idol to Russell; 2) convince tribemate Amanda to let Villain Danielle have a clue to a Hidden Idol (he thought it was “the right thing”); 3) Ignore Sandra’s plan to boot Russell at the even numbers merge, final 9, and final 6; and 4) believe Russell when he pitched a final 3 deal at the final 7.

Outlook: The prospects for Colby depend on how he performs in the early challenges. If he looks like he’s engaged and interested in playing, he could be targeted early. But if HvV Colby shows up, and he looks like he’s sleepwalking through the game again, nobody will want him gone. What’s Colby’s motivation for playing? In HvV, he was hosting other TV shows and had reason to cultivate his positive image. He might not have been playing to win. Does he want to win now? If he does want to win, will he know how? Will he figure out “the right thing” to do to win over a jury?

Despite only winning one physical individual Immunity Challenge in three seasons, Stephenie is seen by many as the best female athlete to play Survivor. Without a doubt there is no tougher physical female competitor ... at least according to her reputation.

Stephenie’s social game in Palau was strong. When all 20 players were dumped on one beach without being separated into tribes, Stephenie quickly joined an alliance with Ian and Tom (the season’s two best players), along with Katie. Her hard work also endeared her to Jenn, Gregg, Jolanda, Bobby Jon and James. But when the players picked the tribes, Stephenie found herself separated from her three closest contacts when Bobby Jon picked her to be on his tribe. Her weakness was in the strategic game. She had trouble securing a new alliance and was often indecisive when she found herself as a swing vote – twice changing her vote after a tie. But her competitive drive earned her respect, as both James and Bobby Jon opted to keep her instead of one of the guys they had more in common with. Neither of them ever voted against her. She outlasted all of them. But that high level of respect hurt her at the merge, as the Koror women were intimidated, and didn’t want to compete against her. Jenn put it best, saying in confessional “Stephenie is the new girl. I met Stephenie and hit it off with her the first day. But that was before I knew she was such a stiff competitor. I’m really worried that the longer she’s with us, the more she’s gonna make friends and weasel her way in. As much as I like having her around, I think she needs to go as soon as possible.”

Stephenie returned the next season, in Guatemala with Bobby Jon, and together they were the first to enjoy the massive advantage veterans have over rookies. Both were seen as star players who could teach others how to play well. It was easy to convince others to cooperate with her, but the power went to her head. Stephenie was determined not to repeat the mistakes she made in Palau, but she over-corrected, and played a little too aggressive. She came off as dismissive and uncaring. While she formed the strongest alliance with Rafe, she was rude and nasty to those she blindsided. Jamie, Judd, Lydia and Cyndi all resented her. She made it into the finals but had no shot of winning against either Danni or Rafe because she’d been so nasty to those voted out.

In HvV, Stephenie was placed on the Heroes tribe with her Palau partner, Tom. The problem was everyone knew they’d align together. She made things worse during a challenge. Everyone agreed to listen to J.T., who’d run that challenge before, but Stephenie followed Tom’s lead in barking orders. Stephenie barked more than Tom did, and James barked at Stephenie. He continued laying into her after returning to camp. Stephenie couldn’t recover, and was booted to a 19th place finish, primarily because others wanted to break up a possible power couple.

Outlook: Stephenie was in an alliance with Tom and Colby in HvV but after being burned for her connection to Tom, I wonder if she’ll stay away from Colby this time. We know Stephenie will make adjustments, we just don’t know if they’ll be good ones. She figures to be one of the better female challenge performers, so unless her mouth puts her in a hole, she should at least make it to the merge this time around.

Like Sandra, Cirie is living proof that one doesn’t need to be a good athlete to excel in Survivor. Cirie is the best manipulator Survivor has ever seen. She engineered masterful blindsides in her first two seasons without drawing anger from Jury members or putting jury votes at risk. Much like Sandra, Cirie’s strength early on was appearing to be the non-threatening “free vote,” which usually meant other players shared information openly with her. She also excels at reading her competition and predicting their motives and actions.

In Panama, Cirie managed to control the majority alliance while never really being a member of it. When her tribe lost the first challenge, Cirie convinced them to boot their strongest member – Lumberjill Tina – because none of them would want to compete against her after the merge.

Her best effort was in Micronesia, in which she dominated everyone socially and strategically from the second Tribal Council (after Jonny Fairplay quit). Her highlight was coming up with a plan to convince Erik to give his Immunity to Natalie – after he’d seen the women blindside Ozzy, Jason and Alexis. A low burning fire and a shaky hand kept her out of the finals in her first 2 tries, finishing 4th in Panama, and 3rd in Micronesia. Aside from that, the only thing she couldn’t overcome was her reputation for being a master strategist and manipulator. Fireman Tom and J.T.’s fear of Cirie’s ability led to her an early 17th place finish in Heroes vs. Villains – her 3rd attempt to win Survivor. After an eavesdropping J.T. told Tom she’d turned Amanda against him, Tom said “She’s (Cirie) a brilliant strategist.” Cirie failed to secure one completely loyal #1 partner to accompany her to the finals. Had she done that with Amanda in Micronesia, she probably goes to the finals instead of Parvati, and likely would have won. She also had the bad luck of James’ medevac, which prompted Producers to switch from a final 3 to a final 2. Cirie was the easy favorite over Amanda and Parvati.

In Game Changers, Cirie was 7 years and 14 seasons removed from her last appearance in HvV when she was taken out by players who thought she was “too brilliant” to compete against. The good news was most of those in the cast hadn’t played against her. The bad news was one of those who had (J.T.) helped remove her from HvV. She started off in a bad spot, being placed on a tribe with J.T. and Ozzy, whom she blindsided in Micronesia. Her tribe also had strong challenge performers like Brad, Andrea and Sarah, whose collective presence made her more expendable in the Tribal phase of the game. Had they lost, the combination of Cirie’s intimidating reputation and lack of challenge strength may have made her an obvious target – especially when combined with natural foes Ozzy and J.T. But she worked on regaining Ozzy’s trust at the start, and it paid off when he needed her support after the first of two swaps. She fell on the good side of both swaps and entered the merge in a solid alliance with Ozzy, Andrea, Sarah, and Zeke. Her tribes never lost a pre-merge Immunity Challenge either and Cirie only sat out once.

Cirie’s low pre-merge profile paid off. Most of the players seemed to forget about her reputation, even after they watched Ciera, Tony, Malcolm, Sandra and Ozzy all get removed in part for their own reputations. Nobody recognized the need to remove Cirie (who was a better player than all of them except Sandra) – which was in part due to Cirie’s ability to build strong, trusting relationships. The majority of the jury acknowledged Cirie was playing the best game, even after her mistake of trying to use Sarah’s Vote Steal Advantage and missing the “non-transferable” part of the instructions. Despite the obvious betrayal, Sarah still kept her in the game. Cirie went out in unique and bizarre fashion (now known as “Advantagegeddon”) when 5 of the 6 players either had Immunity, an Idol, or a Legacy Advantage. Nobody ever voted against Cirie the whole game, or even discussed the urgency of removing her, and her jury gave her a standing ovation as she left.

Outlook: Cirie is the most popular player in this cast by far. That’s her biggest asset and disadvantage. She has proven she can fall victim to her reputation, but she has also proven she can overcome it. The only consistent flaw I’ve seen in Cirie’s game is she never secures a solid #1, ride or die partner who’ll stick with her over anyone else. Plenty of players in this cast would love to sail deep into the merge with Cirie, but plenty would also like the bragging rights of voting her out (like Ozzy and Denise did with Sandra). One amazing stat about Cirie is she has played 4 times but only amassed 8 votes against her. That’s mind-blowing to me. I’ll never bet against Cirie, who is capable of outsmarting everyone in this cast. I’m hoping she makes a deep run. A Survivor season with Cirie in it is always entertaining.

Ozzy is easily the best athlete Survivor has ever seen, and the best-equipped to survive in the wild. But unfortunately for Ozzy, Survivor is a social game. Ozzy lost to the better social/strategic player Yul in Cook Islands. Ozzy’s physical dominance makes him an ideal alliance partner – until the merge. But his arrogance – especially when he has power – makes others want him gone. The combination of his strength and arrogance is his biggest liability, which is why he finished 9th in Micronesia, right after the merge. Ozzy’s social game is all but non-existent. He trusts the wrong people and rudely shuns everyone else. He may have lost Cook Islands by mocking (with Parvati and Adam) those with body hair (a group that included Penner’s wife). Yul used this comment against Ozzy to get Penner’s vote. Ozzy lost by one vote.

In Cook Islands, Ozzy described himself as a loner, and acted like one at the start, largely keeping to himself. But it didn’t take long for his arrogant side to surface. Ozzy didn’t care for Billy and convinced his tribe to throw a challenge so they could vote him out. After throwing the challenge, Ozzy’s tribe was asked to send someone from the other tribes to Exile. Without checking with his tribe’s women, Ozzy chose to send Yul, who quickly found that season’s Idol. This angered his tribemate Cristina, who considered voting Ozzy out instead of Billy. After falling on the wrong side of a swap, Ozzy griped about being used to feed everyone. Yul was considering blindsiding Ozzy to prevent a post-merge immunity winning streak but ended up including Ozzy in a 4-person alliance after Penner and Candice mutinied back to their original tribe. Ozzy’s physical performances led the Aitu 4 to challenge wins both before and after the merge. Ozzy even tied the record Colby set by winning five individual Immunity Challenges. The cast was surprised to find out they’d have a Final 3 instead of a Final 2 but it seemed like Ozzy was fine with facing the superior strategist/social player Yul anyway. In the closest finals to date, Ozzy lost to Yul in a 5-4 vote.

In Micronesia, his arrogance blinded him and drew resentment from Cirie, Parvati, Tracy, Ami, Alexis and Natalie. When two rookies beat him in a Day 1 sprint, he didn’t realize how he could benefit from appearing to be beatable, so he continued his physical dominance, making himself a bigger target. When his alliance of four needed Cirie to get the majority, he allowed Cirie to change his alliance’s decision to boot Eliza, and didn’t realize she started taking power from him. He also foolishly put a “couples” target on his back by openly cuddling with, and kissing Amanda. As his position improved, Ozzy got arrogant and was rude to Cirie (when she didn’t want to take the boat to deep water) and Tracy (when she wanted to eat one of their chickens). At the merge Ozzy’s arrogance prevented him from realizing Cirie and Parvati weren’t blindly loyal to him. He also ignored James’ warnings about Parvati’s closeness to Natalie and Alexis. While he believed he’d engineered a blindside on Jason, he had no idea Cirie had already implemented a plan to blindside him. He was so confident, he didn’t play the Idol he’d found, and Cirie blindsided him, making him the second Jury member.

Then in South Pacific, his tribe saw through his weak attempt to socialize and also resented his arrogance. He repeated his “couples” mistake and made his partnerships with Semhar and Elyse too obvious – both women got booted by others who didn’t want him to be too powerful. Ozzy was so upset after losing Elyse, he threw a childish tantrum and said he was playing for himself, further alienating his tribe. Then the next night, he claimed to be a team player again. He was strategically inept too. When facing a possible even-numbers merge, he committed his Bonehead move and volunteered to be voted out to R.I. so he could beat Upolu member Christine. Ozzy feared she’d return to Upolu, but he either forgot about, or ignored the obvious signs Christine gave that she’d detested Coach. His unnecessary move saved tribemate Cochran (whom Ozzy had mocked) a trip to R.I. Cochran promptly defected to Upolu, in part because of the disrespectful and rude way Ozzy treated him (like laughing at Cochran’s horrified reaction after being splattered with blood after Ozzy beheaded a chicken). While on Redemption Island, Ozzy actually formed a smart plan – treat everyone who joined him on Exile well, beat them fair and square in a duel, then win his way to the finals where he’d face a Jury full of those who liked him more than those who voted them out. But he was so arrogant about his plan, he told everyone what it was, which only served to unite the remaining Upolu players against him. Ozzy’s athleticism kept him in the game through six duels. His competitive drive had his former tribemate/Jurors all wanting to vote for him at the end. He won his way back into the game but lost the Final 4 Immunity Challenge to Sophie. His bad social game with Albert, Sophie and Coach left him with no other options to save himself, and finished 4th, one spot short of the finals.

In Game Changers, Ozzy again entered as one of the biggest targets, right up there with Sandra, Tony, Cirie and Malcolm. Everyone except Brad was well aware of Ozzy’s reputation as the best challenge performer in the show’s history, and several spoke of the importance of removing him around the merge. But for the first time ever, Ozzy seemed to be very aware of his reputation for being arrogant, condescending and insulting. He made an adjustment, even if it wasn’t an effective one. Ozzy kept a lid on his arrogance, only proclaiming himself as his swapped tribe’s “leader” in confessional. He also mended fences with Cirie, who blindsided him in Micronesia, and the two were trusted partners at the merge. But Ozzy’s failure was once again his social game. He reverted to the loner Ozzy we saw in Cook Islands, and he believed others would keep him around because he caught fish for them. Then he let his arrogance slip out at the Final 12 Immunity Challenge ("Get A Grip""). Probst mentioned Ozzy had never lost that challenge, and Ozzy yelled “And I’m gonna extend my record too.” He didn’t. Tai beat him, and everyone who’d talked about booting him at their first chance made good on their promise.

Outlook: Ozzy’s most consistent failure is being a weak strategist. He can’t think of ways to keep himself safe when he doesn’t have Immunity. He spends too much time fishing, which also gives others a chance to plan how and when to get rid of him. Ozzy became the first player to make the merge 4 times but also set a dubious record for being voted out 5 times, including 3 times in the same season. Ozzy had 17 votes cast against him in South Pacific and has a career total of 34. Three more and he’ll tie Andrea’s career record of 37. So, the obvious question for Ozzy is can he get out of his own way? Can he control his arrogance and show enough humility to make his competitors want him to win? For someone who has tripped himself up as much as Ozzy has, that’s a tall order. It seems much more likely he’ll extend his record for being voted out.

For all of his eccentricities, and penchant for telling bullshit stories (“I was dropped into the Amazon jungle by a military helicopter, got captured by pygmies, was bound and clubbed, but escaped”), he found a way to make people listen to him when it came time to vote someone out. He influenced the early voting in Tocantins and hammered home his mantra of “Playing with strength and integrity”, but fell victim to Stephen’s strategy, landing in the minority when Stephen blindsided Tyson. After falling into the minority for the first time, Coach didn’t seem to have any idea how to save himself and even asked Stephen and J.T. to boot his remaining alliance partners before booting him. Just the same, Coach had a very influential voice on the jury as several members indicated how much they valued J.T.’s “strength and honesty” over Stephen’s strategy.

In HvV, Coach was largely a non-factor, putting an early couples target on his own back by getting too close with Jerri. He also tangled with Sandra, trying to blame her for a challenge loss when he was the one who insisted she sit out. But he did help shift the balance of power from Boston Rob to Russell after being impressed by Russell’s move to save Parvati with an Idol. He and Jerri agreed to a final 3 deal with Russell. But Coach found out the hard way why you don’t mess with Sandra, who got him blindsided before the merge.

Coach’s best performance came in South Pacific, but ironically, his penchant for lying ended up costing him a win. Coach united the most religious members of his tribe (which also included atheist Sophie), as the rookies largely followed his veteran leadership. When Ozzy handed him the most likely defector in Cochran, Coach took advantage and locked up a starstruck pocket vote. Coach made a few side deals but couldn’t keep them secret. Ozzy exposed their final 2 deal when he realized Coach wasn’t gonna keep his word. Coach never picked up on the fact that the Jury wanted honesty, and he foolishly stuck to claiming he “tried to play with honor and integrity” mantra, which he clearly didn’t adhere to. 5 jurors said they were leaning toward voting for Coach but would only do so if he’d be honest about how he lied to control his tribe. This meant Coach would have to admit he lied. He couldn’t do it. Sophie took advantage and happily exposed every lie Coach told all season. The jury appreciated her honesty and gave her the win. If he’d been honest with the Jury, he probably wouldn’t have lost 5 of their votes to Sophie because she wouldn’t have had the chance to expose his lies.

Outlook: Its doubtful Coach will be able to exert the control he had in South Pacific, but it’s equally likely none of these players will take him seriously enough to want him gone early. He’s so known for tossing bullshit around, will anybody believe a word he says if he makes it to the finals? I doubt it. Coach has played with Ozzy, Cirie, Colby, and Stephenie, so he should have a number of initial alliance options, but I don’t think any of them will see him as a #1 ride or die partner.

Aubry got off to a rough start in Kaoh Rong, almost having an emotional breakdown in the first few days while suffering severe dehydration. Debbie comforted her and coaxed her through it, but at the time Aubry didn’t know how significant that would be. Aubry initially aligned with the 3 younger Brains but quickly realized how the overconfident Peter and Liz decided they were in control. Aubry’s instinct was to remove Peter, but she let Debbie talk her into removing Liz instead. Physically, Aubry turned out to be very strong in challenges – especially while swimming – and didn’t get targeted for it. She built strong relationships with Neal, Debbie and Joe, which paid off when she was swapped with Joe. Aubry essentially carried his vote in her pocket for most of the game. Aubry unknowingly committed a fatal mistake at the second swapped tribe vote. She couldn’t decide if she should remove the untrustworthy Peter, or Beauty tribe member Julia, which would give the Brains better numbers. She gave no answer to Julia and Tai’s request to vote for Peter, which made them suspicious. She made it worse when she wrote down Julia’s name, then crossed it out and wrote Peter’s. Scot and Julia wrote Aubry off for the rest of the game. Even Joe questioned her decision. Scot and Julia eventually withheld their jury votes because of it, and Scot also convinced Jason not to vote for her.

Strategically, Aubry came into her own after the merge after Neal and his Idol were medevaced. She built trust with Cydney, and together they ran the rest of the game, with Aubry influencing the decisions to remove Julia, Debbie and Scot. She also pulled off the game’s biggest power shift when she convinced Tai to break his alliance with Scot & Jason. That resulted in giving her alliance power AND removing an Idol. Earning Tai’s trust paid off at Final 4 when he helped her force a fire making tiebreaker which she won against Cydney to reach the finals. Aubry’s social game had big flaws. Even Joe, who loved her, acknowledged she rarely made eye contact with him when they spoke. She shied away from those she wasn’t aligned with (Scot, Jason, Julia, Nick) and this hurt her at a crucial moment when she needed Jason’s vote to remove Michele. Jason even complained that Aubry wouldn’t talk to him. Aubry also didn’t know how much she’d angered Debbie and Cydney both of whom refused to vote for her because she helped vote them out. Her fatal mistake was crossing out Julia’s name, but had she not given in to Cydney’s desire to remove Jason, she could have removed Michele – the player who hadn’t angered anyone – and most likely would have pulled out the win. Aubry also failed to publicly own her moves at Final Tribal Council in a way that would make the jury aware of how much she was influencing the game. She also failed to expose the evasive, non-specific answers Michele gave at FTC that would show the jury how Michele never knew what was up.

In Game Changers, Aubry entered as “The one who should have won Kaoh Rong,” and chose to sandbag both her challenge and strategic talents. She knew the entire cast had just finished watching Kaoh Rong two weeks before leaving for Game Changers, and she’d have to address what could be an intimidating reputation, saying “I was proud of myself for keeping my physical abilities downplayed this time around. Once I realized there were enough people around with big enough egos that they didn’t see me as as big of a threat as I thought they might. I put myself out there for the diving and swimming.” Aubry’s second effort was a series of highs and lows. First, she aligned with Tony, knowing he’d be a good shield as others would want him gone. But then he got himself booted second overall after clashing with Sandra. Aubry never found her footing after failing to connect with Sandra herself, which put her on the outs with Hali, Michaela, and Varner. While her Mana tribemates never pushed to remove her, they rarely included her in their plans either. Aubry was often the last to find out where votes were going. She built a great relationship with Andrea and Cirie after the merge then won her first Immunity Challenge, only to see Andrea blindsided next. She reconnected with Tai at Final 6, and he protected her with his extra Idol, but then she lost her unprotected ally Cirie. Then Tai helped vote her out at Final 5. Aubry didn’t play badly, but never really recovered after picking the wrong initial alliance.

Aubry played a third time in Edge of Extinction, another season that mixed rookies with veterans. But unlike those other seasons, these rookies collectively opted not to blindly follow the veterans. Aubry found herself as the #1 target from Day 1. To make things worse, she was paired with Joe Anglim, and knew others would boot her first so Joe could help them win challenges. Aubry’s tribe won the first three Immunity Challenges, but she still had trouble securing alliance partners, being shut out by the rookies. Only Aurora considered trusting Aubry and Joe. Aubry realized how badly she’d need an Idol, and to her credit, promptly found one. She made it to a swap on a 5-person tribe with original tribemates Gavin, Victoria and Eric, and Wendy from the other tribe. When they lost Immunity, Aubry felt confident the others would booth the quirky, uncooperative and unpredictable Wendy. But savvy rookie Victoria did a great job of fooling Aubry into feeling safe. Aubry believed she’d finally secured an alliance, but Victoria blindsided Aubry, who didn’t play her Idol. Aubry spent the rest of the game on Edge of Extinction, failing to win her way back into the game.

Outlook: Aubry’s chances are good. After making an early exit in EoE and being out of control for most of Game Changers, her threat level should be low. She’s got a strong existing working relationship with Cirie and has also played with Ozzy and Rick Devens. Aligning with them could be good for Aubry who could use them all as higher-priority shields.

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Editor's note: We're rolling this out in three parts, because 24 players is a lot! Check back here next week for Part 2. And in the meantime, don't forget to leave a comment below.