Now that we’ve crowned Savannah as the winner of Survivor 49, we can go full speed ahead into the long-anticipated Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans – the first in the New Era to feature a cast full of returning players. We also know that Rizo Velovic and Savannah Louie from S49 will be part of the S50 cast. The obvious question is how will these players be received by the 22 other more experienced returning players?

On one hand, Rizo and Savannah will have an advantage in that the other 22 players will know absolutely nothing about them or how they played in S49. The entire S50 cast left to play just a couple of weeks after the S48 finale aired, in which Kyle Fraser was named the winner. Filming on S50 was completed three months before S49 hit the airwaves in September. Their competitors weren’t aware of their strengths – how well they can lie, perform in challenges, earn trust, find Idols, stay loyal or form alliances. They won’t know about Rizo’s tendency to make a show out of Tribal Council, or Savannah’s tendency to be direct and confrontational. They won’t know how they were each other’s most trusted ally like they’ll know about Kyle and Kamilla. And of course, Rizo and Savannah will have gathered plenty of information on all the other players, having had the chance to watch them all play before.

But on the other hand, these two players won’t have had the opportunity to join in the pre-gaming activities the other players have. They’ll have no idea what pre-game alliances have been formed or how strong they may or may not be. The other 22 players may have already discussed who to target early. Many plans may have already been made that didn’t include Rizo and Savannah. They’ll be outsiders before getting on the plane.

So, the obvious question is this: Is playing in consecutive seasons an advantage or a disadvantage? Does being unknown to the other players help keep you safe, or is your challenge harder because you may not know why you lost the first time around?

The answer is yes ... and no.

The good news is that out of the nine people who’ve played in back-to-back seasons, five of them finished higher the second time around than they did as rookies. The other four finished in about the same position (within three spots) they did as rookies. Arguably, the only one who played worse the second time around is Russell Hantz, an anomaly player who excels at finding new ways to scorch the earth and anger his jurors each time he plays. He also may have thought he’d won the S19: Samoa season, as those votes were unknown before he started playing in S20: Heroes vs. Villains.

Back-to-back players have never been targeted early. The other players know they’ve been brought back for a reason, but being an unknown entity has never generated enough suspicion to prevent any of them from making it to the merge. But until Savannah, none of these players won the game either. Only three of them made it to the finals (Amanda, Stephenie, and Russell) and none of them had a reasonable chance to win in part because they repeated their rookie mistakes or created new ones.

So, let’s take a look at these back-to-back players to get a little perspective on Rizo and Savannah’s chances in S50. I’ll start with a brief review of how Rizo and Savannah performed in S49 similar to what I did with the other players in my 3-part S50 preview (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). Then I’ll take a look at each tribe and speculate as to how these players will compete with or against each other.

Savannah had had a three-week break between seasons as filming on S49 ended on May 15, 2025, and filming on S50 began on June 6th. Savannah was in a majority Uli tribe alliance for the entire pre-merge, partnering with Rizo, Nate and Shannon. She in fact was the initial unifying force in forming that alliance. Savannah helped Rizo find an Idol, which Shannon publicized after a swap. After a second swap, Savannah followed MC and discovered her following instructions to find a different Idol. Savannah spotted the keys MC was looking for and dove for them, but MC got them first. Incredulously, Savannah immediately made an insincere partnership pitch, which she acknowledged in confessional didn’t work. In her own confessional, MC noted how Savannah’s eyes bugged out during the pitch. It permanently alienated MC. Savannah and Rizo were fooled by Jawan and Sage into thinking they were still tribe loyal but instead helped blindside Nate first at the merge. Savannah made an identical bug-eyed “I still trust you” pitch to Jawan and Sage which they independently said failed, Sage adding Savannah was acting like a “mean girl.”

Savannah knew she was a top target, and to her credit won a split squad Immunity at final 10. A twist sent her to attend the losing team’s Tribal Council along with an Advantage where she could vote or bank an Extra Vote. Upon her arrival at camp, she annoyed some on the losing team by gloating about her good fortune (a recurring theme in her game). Then she kept the Extra Vote and told her partner Rizo about it. They removed MC, Rizo kept his Idol, and Savannah kept her Extra Vote. Then at final 9, Savannah won Immunity and helped bring Sophie S. to their side. Rizo flipped Jawan and Sage’s votes and they all removed Alex, with Rizo keeping his Idol. At the next vote, Savannah rubbed Kristina the wrong way. Kristina approached her with a partnership pitch (a very awkward one at that), but Savannah confronted her by point blank asking, “Who are you voting for? This is how I talk game.” This prompted a rattled Kristina to reply, “I don’t like that.” Later, Savannah was shocked when Sophie S. reported that Jawan and Sage had flipped back against her and Rizo. As the votes for Jawan were being read, Savannah taunted him, asking “Did you vote for me?” twice. Savannah used her Extra Vote but didn’t need it as the vote to boot Jawan was 5-3-2. A blindsided Jawan left the game appearing happier with Rizo than with Savannah.

Then at the next vote when Sophie S. was blindsided, Savannah flashed a mean girl “how dare you plot against me” glare at Sophie. At that same Tribal Council, Kristina described her relationship with Savannah as “A strong dislike.” Jury Management wasn’t one of Savannah’s strengths and she may or may not have been aware Rizo was using her as a shield. Several wanted Savannah out, but aside from Immunity wins, Savannah didn’t save herself. Most feared Rizo would play his Idol for her. Savannah wasn’t outwitting anybody. Savannah’s rough social play cost her jury votes from MC, Kristina and Jawan.

Outlook: Savannah will be safe early on because she’s an unknown entity, and her challenge talent will prevent her from being an early target. But if the rough edges to her social game surface, these more experienced players will have less patience for it than Sage and Kristina had. Being confrontational will backfire on Savannah quickly, especially if the veterans learn she won S49 – a weapon Rizo will have in his arsenal. Savannah’s inability to outwit may spell her doom too. Can she save herself without the threat of Rizo’s Idol to deflect votes away from her? I don’t think that’s very likely. If she doesn’t adopt a kinder, gentler social game, she may not make it to the merge. She got humbled at Final Tribal Council after Kristina asked her to name a loved one for every juror. Savannah swung and missed a lot on that question. That should tell her what adjustment she needs to make. Will she listen to that voice in her head or rest on the laurels she believes propelled her to the win?

Rizo had the same three-week break between seasons Savannah had. Rizo was in a majority Uli tribe alliance for the entire pre-merge, partnering with Savannah, Nate and Shannon. Savannah and Nate helped him find an Idol. Shannon also knew about it, and Sage publicized it after a swap. Rizo was shocked when Jawan and Sage, whom he thought were still Uli loyal, turned on them and helped blindside Nate first at the merge, Rizo holding onto his Idol. Rizo wisely didn’t overreact and made a sincere push to convince them he wasn’t upset. His efforts paid off when Jawan and Sage helped boot MC (in part because they feared Rizo’s Idol). Rizo made his best strategic move at the next vote convincing Jawan and Sage to flip back to his side. Rizo told them Alex had betrayed Jawan by exposing information (which was only partially true). Rizo had some luck fall his way at the next vote when Sophie S. (who had been shut out by her original tribe) told him he’d lost Jawan and Sage’s support. He was sincerely shocked at this revelation but made a show of it at Tribal Council. Even though he didn’t come up with the plan to boot Jawan, he owned the moment by playing a phony Idol and keeping his real one again. When Jawan was booted, Rizo stood up and said, “You flipped on me once, I wasn’t gonna let it happen again.”

Rizo’s next target Steven went on a Journey. Rizo adjusted to any possible Advantage Steven would have by suggesting to Steven they both target Sophie S. That plan happened to be on everyone’s mind, and she left unanimously. Rizo kept his Idol again. Rizo successfully bluffed about playing his Idol through a staggering nine Tribal Councils. The blindside on Alex at final 9 should have made Rizo the clear frontrunner and biggest target but he only had two votes cast against him entering the final 5. This raised the possibility that like Xander in S41, the other players weren’t taking him seriously. They certainly didn’t prioritize removing him. It’s possible the jurors were tiring of Rizo’s theatrics when they weren’t followed with any actual payoff.

Rizo appeared to be sandbagging during the Loved Ones reward, smiling as he “fell” into last place. He pulled off a Tony-esque bluff that his Idol expired at final 6 when it was actually good until final 5. This gave Rizo a free pass into the final 4 but also inspired Sage to call him a “little turd” twice. Did his jurors see him in the same light? Rizo lost the fire challenge to Savannah, and none of the jurors appeared to be disappointed he couldn’t win his way into the finals (like the S43 jurors were when Jesse lost). Rizo’s jurors playfully booed him at that season’s After show when he bragged about his many Idol bluffs. They didn’t care for his grandstanding, especially when he asked Probst to call him “Rizgod.”

Outlook: Unless Savannah exposes Rizo’s strategic talent (and there’s little reason to believe she will), Rizo figures to be pretty safe for a while. He comes off as a goofball superfan prone to theatrics. He doesn’t appear to create reasons for anyone to want him gone. Since he’s on a tribe with Colby, Kyle, Q, Angelina, Aubry, Genevieve & Stephenie, he could easily benefit from the women’s tendency to push back against typical Alpha Male behavior Q, and Colby like to display. I could easily see Rizo earning safety by being the calm, sane person others will vent to when complaining about others on the tribe. Rizo probably knows Survivor better than everyone on this tribe except maybe Aubry. He could get himself in trouble if he shows that depth of knowledge early on. Others might suspect he can outwit them (which he can). But if he continues his tendency to make a show out of Tribal Council, veterans will have less patience for it. It’s hard for me to see Rizo being more annoying than Q, Angelina or Genevieve. Why take him out ahead of others you KNOW won’t be cooperative with you? He’s more likely to leave if he falls on the wrong side of a swap by others who learn about him through Savannah.

Rupert had a three-month break, finishing Pearl Islands on 7/31/03 and starting All-Stars on 11/3/03. His castmates had a chance to watch the first seven episodes of Pearl Islands when they left to play in All-Stars, so Rupert wasn’t a completely unknown entity. Just the same, they had no idea how Rupert fared after the merge. They knew he was good at challenges but didn’t know how easily he could be fooled or how he got blindsided either. Rupert was able to earn trust very easily from those who didn’t know him, but he was just as naïve as he was the first time around.

As a rookie, he believed in Burton who played him for a fool and blindsided him. Burton convinced Rupert to help throw a challenge so they could remove one of the women who weren’t working hard or helping around camp. Burton’s real plan was to blindside Rupert to prevent him from going on a post-merge Immunity run. Rupert got saved when the opposing tribe got to kidnap him, sparing him a trip to Tribal Council. But after the merge, Rupert was fooled again by Burton and Fairplay which resulted in Rupert’s blindside. In All-Stars he repeated his mistake, choosing to believe in Boston Rob as much as he believed in Burton. At final 5, Rob knew he and Amber were outnumbered, so he tricked Rupert and Big Tom into thinking they were plotting against each other. Rupert took the bait, fought with Big Tom, then helped vote him out. Rupert also killed his own credibility along the way convincing his tribe to dig a shelter close to the shoreline, only to see it get washed away when the tide came in later that day.

Stephenie had a six-and-a-half-month break, finishing Palau on 12/9/04 and starting Guatemala on 6/27/05. Stephenie and Bobby Jon were stars to the Guatemala rookies and became the first to benefit from their celebrity status. The rookies had seen the entirety of the Palau season and didn’t want to vote her out because they thought she’d both teach them the game and bring them to the end. But after being hesitant and indecisive in Palau, Stephenie over-corrected, and became obsessed with being in control. Her paranoia caused her to lie to and blindside many of her alliance partners. She promised Jaime and Judd they’d go deep with her, then blindsided them both. She told Lydia she didn’t deserve to still be in the game. She also showed open disdain to those outside of her alliance. She completely overlooked the fact that the jurors have to want her to win more than her opponent. She angered or alienated too many jurors to have a chance at winning. She only got one Jury vote from Rafe, who took himself out of the game by freeing Danni from the final 2 pact they’d made.

Bobby Jon also had a 6.5-month break. Like Stephenie, Bobby Jon was applauded by the Guatemala rookies when they saw him running out to join them. He was reluctant, but he still accepted the leader role on his tribe, which won 5 of the first 6 challenges. His game fell apart after the swap when his tribe started losing, and he got into fights with Jamie from the opposing tribe. At the merge, Bobby Jon was in the minority, but he still used his relationship with Stephenie to make sure he made the jury this time around. Bobby Jon didn’t really make any adjustments and didn’t have a plan for keeping himself in the game. Both times around he seemed to think the game was more about working hard in camp and in challenges than in building social relationships and using them to advance and win.

Amanda had a three-month break, finishing China on 8/2/07, and starting Micronesia on 10/29/07. Amanda and her alliance partner James faced 10 rookies and eight returning players in Micronesia who barely knew who she was. Only two weeks of the China season had aired when they left for Micronesia, and Amanda wasn’t featured much in those episodes. Amanda chose an even better partner in Cirie than she did in Todd, but she still had no idea how to close out the game. Amanda didn’t know the results of the China season when she played in Micronesia. That’s probably why she repeated her mistakes. She was indecisive, whiny and wishy-washy in the last two Tribal Councils. While she didn’t know the China results, she probably should have known she didn’t win based on how harshly she was grilled by the China jury. Just the same, she still fell on her face down the stretch and did it worse than she did the first time. Instead of getting the eye rolls she got in China, some of Amanda’s Micronesia jurors were laughing at her.

Just like Amanda, James had three months to reflect on his rookie effort. But unlike Amanda, James was featured prominently in the first few episodes of China (specifically pushing over a tree), and his Micronesia cast members knew him much better than they knew Amanda. While Amanda was greeted by polite golf claps when she walked out, the Fans tribe shouted and cheered when they saw James. While he wasn’t as naïve in Micronesia as he was in China, he still lacked the strategic skills to identify the best moves to make to keep himself safe. He stuck with Amanda again, and they joined Parvati and Ozzy in an alliance. But like he was fooled in China when Todd blindsided him, he was just as shocked when Cirie blindsided Ozzy. While he was medevaced out of Micronesia, his position was more hopeless. It was only a matter of time until the women removed him. He had no idea how to save himself. He didn’t even have two Idols like he had in China.

Russell had a three-week break, finishing Samoa on 7/19/09 and starting Heroes vs. Villains on 8/9/09. That’s not much time to decompress and reflect, but I don’t think it would make a difference here. Since Russell never cared about having majority numbers, earning trust from many wasn’t his concern. But not knowing why he lost in Samoa clearly affected his play in HvV. Russell was so arrogant, he may have believed he’d won the Samoa season when filming began on Heroes vs. Villains. Russell didn’t change a thing – not that he would have if he’d known why he didn’t get the votes in Samoa. There has been speculation that Parvati got tipped off about Russell by her friends on the Survivor Production staff, and that might be why she was so open to working with him. But even if that’s true, it didn’t really affect his game much. He still took dead aim at anyone who wouldn’t obey him (Betsy and Laura in Samoa, Boston Rob and Tyson in HvV). He still mocked those who fell into a minority against his alliance (Dave in Samoa, J.T. and Rupert in HvV) and still sent jurors out of the game angry at him. Russell doesn’t learn from his mistakes because he never believes he makes any. He believes a “mistake” is when somebody doesn’t vote for him to win.

Malcolm also had a three-week break, finishing Philippines on 4/25/12 and starting Caramoan on 5/21/12. Probst was so enamored with Malcolm, he asked him to play again before he recorded his Exit Comments when he was voted out. Malcolm’s social game was just as excellent in Caramoan as it was in Philippines, and he didn’t make many mistakes he needed to correct. He was very well aware his biggest mistake was in failing to convince Denise he was still loyal to her at final 4. Like Amanda and James, Malcolm’s second appearance also featured 10 fans and 9 other returning players. The rookies were more than willing to follow the veterans. Nobody knew how he’d performed in Philippines, so he was free to tell any story he wanted.

The major difference between these appearances was his partners. While Denise was trustworthy, dependable, and knew when to keep her mouth shut in Philippines, Malcolm’s Caramoan partners Corinne and Eddie were the opposite. At the merge, Corinne clashed with Phillip and wanted him gone. Malcolm correctly realized Phillip was a minor annoyance, good shield, and wasn’t a threat to win. But Corinne told Dawn she had some of the fans in her pocket. Dawn realized Corinne could be too powerful if Phillip left, so she organized a blindside on Corinne. Corinne’s departure weakened Malcom’s alliance. He was guilty by association and found himself under suspicion from the other Favorites. Then later, Malcom’s ally Eddie leaked another one of his plans to Andrea, who shared it with Cochran. Cochran realized he was about to be outwitted by Malcolm and turned the vote against him. If Malcolm made any mistakes, it was in 1) not recognizing the strategic adjustments Cochran and Andrea made during the game, and 2) failing to convince Corinne to tolerate Phillip a little longer.

Zeke also had a three-week break, finishing MvGX on 5/12/17, and starting Game Changers on 6/6/17. After having only three weeks between seasons, Zeke probably didn’t reflect on the mistakes he made that got him voted out because he repeated them. In MvGX, Zeke entered the merge on good terms with the most players. Then he got power hungry and was unhappy that HE wasn’t making the voting decisions for everyone. He turned on his newfound ally Chris and got identified as a “leader” of a new alliance. While his side came out on top in a rock draw that removed Jessica, Zeke’s partner Hannah decided she related better to David, and she helped remove Zeke. In Game Changers, Zeke once again entered the merge as the most trusted player. But he didn’t like following decisions made by Cirie and tried to get Andrea voted out. His plan failed. Andrea played nice with him for one vote, then with Cirie’s help, removed Zeke next by convincing his closest ally Sarah to turn on him.

Michaela did some effective evaluation during the three weeks between her appearances (the same as Zeke's). She might have had more time than Zeke as she missed the Jury the first time around. She’s the only back-to-back player to miss the merge as a rookie. Michaela is one of the few back-to-back players who recognized her rookie mistakes and made sure not to repeat them. In MvGX, she dominated the Tribal Challenges, and got labeled a “Challenge Beast,” one of the few women to earn such a label. After a swap put her at a 4-2 advantage, Michaela built strong relationships with everyone on her swapped tribe and was sneaky enough to surprise Jay and Will when Jay found an Idol. She felt confident enough to share her long-term plans with them. That was her fatal mistake. Jay and Will already knew Michaela was too likable and too good at challenges to keep around. Now they knew she could outsmart them. They didn’t want to compete against her or help her vote out others they trusted. They also didn’t want her exposing Jay’s Idol, so they blindsided her just before the merge.

In Game Changers, Michaela did a good job of not exposing her strategy but she over-corrected, which rubbed others the wrong way. Her athleticism wasn’t a factor, but that wasn’t necessarily by her plan. Her Mana tribemates weren’t familiar with her challenge talent, so they put Malcolm, Caleb and Troyzan in the spotlight roles. Michaela pouted when they lost. After a swap, Malcolm and J.T. took those roles, and again, Michaela pouted, but she also recognized how it was helping her avoid the “beast” label she wore as a rookie. Post-merge, she wasn’t chosen to run a couple of Reward Challenges and pouted – even missing a Game Advantage tube mounted to the sit out bench. But she was smart enough to step out of a Get A Grip Pole holding Immunity Challenge after seeing how Andrea’s performances turned HER into a target. Michaela even acknowledged her sandbagging. However, her pouting put her on the outs with Malcolm, Aubry, J.T., Brad and Sierra, and even Debbie complained about her. But Michaela was well-liked by Sandra, Hali, Zeke, Andrea, Tai and especially Cirie, who bonded with and protected Michaela at the merge. But ultimately Michaela’s bad relationship with Brad spelled her doom, when in a bizarre Tribal Council in which Cirie unsuccessfully tried to use Sarah’s Vote Stealer Advantage, Brad convinced Sarah to remove Michaela instead of Cirie.

These two aren’t exactly back-to-back players as they served “advisors” during S39: Island of the Idols, which ended filming on 4/28/19. They had a three-and-a-half-week break as filming on S40: Winners at War began on 5/22/19. While they didn’t have the stress of playing the game in I of I, they still spent a month on the island, away from family and the comforts of home. Sandra even suffered an allergic reaction and ended up having both of her wrists bandaged by day 17. Without a doubt that affected her play in Winners at War in the same location. The temptation of voting out a two-time winner was too much to overcome, and Denise sent Sandra to Exile at the 8th Tribal Council. No doubt still feeling the effects of her allergies, Sandra opted not to wait it out on Exile, which was a wise decision since she was very unlikely to get a third win from a cast full of winners looking for their second.

Boston Rob, on the other hand, played the same game he always plays. He tried to intimidate others, exert control over their actions and take aim at anyone who wouldn’t obey him. He tried to forbid others from having private conversations too. The experienced winners had no patience for his nonsense and booted him 6th overall, even before removing Sandra. Producers claim Sandra and Boston Rob lived on the island through the entirety of S39 and found their own food. I have my doubts about that. I’ll never believe Boston Rob built that luxury 2-story shelter with an observation deck, hot tub and sauna. But simply being away from home for a month put them both at a slight disadvantage behind the other Winners at War players.

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Now to the forecast.

For S50, the Producers saw fit to separate everyone who’d previously played together with two exceptions. Ozzy and Cirie played together in Micronesia and Game Changers, and Stephenie and Colby played together in Heroes vs. Villains. Both pairs were in alliances together and are familiar with working together. But everyone else who played in the same season together are starting on separate tribes.

Purple tribe (Vatu)

Colby, Kyle, Q, Rizo, Angelina, Aubry, Genevieve & Stephenie

The biggest question I have on this tribe is how will they resist the temptation to kill each other? Q was headstrong and stubborn, and thought his tribemates should be obeying him and playing his game instead of their own. That’s exactly the personality type Aubry (with Scot and Jason in S32: Kaoh Rong, and Brad in S34: Game Changers), and Stephenie (with James in S20: HvV) clashed with. I can easily see these women having nightmarish flashbacks with Q. Genevieve showed a talent for driving her tribemates crazy too. Teeny was regularly frustrated with Genevieve and driven to tears by her once. Genevieve also supported Rome who was annoying everyone. If she’s consistent, she’ll align with Q and get in trouble because of it. Nobody in the entire history of Survivor has been as consistently annoying as Angelina. I wouldn’t be surprised if she STILL hasn’t realized how annoying she can be. Just the same, there’s no reason to want her gone early because everyone already knows she can’t win the game. That will leave Colby, Kyle and Rizo as the peacemakers, a role Colby has never embraced.

The other tribes appear to have better combinations of strong physical and puzzle performers. Aubry is the only proven puzzle whiz here. Rizo showed a talent for convincing players to vote against their best interests, leading the push to remove MC, Alex and Sophie S. instead of trying to flush the Idol they all knew he had. Will he be able to do that with smarter, more experienced players? I don’t see Colby, Stephenie, or Kyle having much patience for Rizo’s theatrics either. The biggest question I have is this: Which Colby will show up? If challenge beast S2: The Australian Outback Colby shows up, this tribe might win a couple of early challenges. But if “Superman in a girdle” S20: HvV Colby is there, look for this to be the disaster tribe. If they lose early, the meltdowns shown by Stephenie and Q will be fun to watch. The in-fighting might be the best thing for Kyle. That might overshadow the temptation to remove their only winner ASAP. This is just a guess, but I think Genevieve and Q are most likely to leave early from this tribe.

Orange tribe

Christian, Joe, Ozzy, Devens, Cirie, Emily, Jenna & Savannah

This tribe has a solid mix of brains and brawn. Ozzy has a reputation for carrying a tribe on his back to the merge. Unless he’s voted out early, there’s no reason to believe he won’t do it again. Joe is a proven challenge beast who can carry the load too. Cirie and Christian excel at puzzles, so they’ve got the brains covered. Devens is deceptively good at all types of challenges. And of course, Savannah won four Immunity Challenges as a rookie. This tribe probably won’t be losing early challenges. Jenna has been away from Survivor for so long I doubt she’ll be considered an early threat. Like Kelly Wiglesworth in S31: Cambodia, some will want to keep her around just for the coolness factor of playing with a Season 1 legend. Since nobody knows Savannah, she probably won’t be targeted early but after winning S49, I can easily see her being overconfident. She gloated a lot as a rookie and may do the same as a means of telling the veterans “I’m just as good as you are.” Doing so might be a mistake. Her direct, confrontational personality annoyed Sage, Kristina and MC and doesn’t figure to play well with experienced players either. Will Emily target Savannah because she reminds her of Dee?

However, Savannah was also good at forming an early majority alliance. Ozzy loves to align with attractive women like Amanda, Parvati and Elyse. I could easily see Savannah filling that position. Someone like Cirie might try to put Savannah’s vote in her pocket, but this group isn’t gonna allow another post-merge Immunity streak. And if they find out she won S49, she’s not getting near the finals. I think Emily is the most likely to be voted out first. She’ll make it an easy decision if she hasn’t learned to keep her mouth shut when she wants to confront someone. I could easily see Emily saying something like “How can you resist the temptation to take out a legend like Cirie or Ozzy?” in front of everyone and paying the price for it. But if news of Savannah’s win gets revealed early, Savannah could easily go first.

Teal tribe (Kalo)

Charlie, Coach, Jonathan, Mike White, Chrissy, Dee, Kamilla & Tiffany

Seeing the physical strength of Ozzy and Joe on the other tribe, there’s no way Jonathan is leaving from this tribe early unless he pisses off his tribemates or tangles with a snake like Jake did in S49. Most of this cast will want to be on “The White Lotus” and won’t kill their chance by voting Mike out early. On the surface, Dee appears to be an obvious first boot since she has won already. But I also think that’s a great reason to keep her around as a shield. Just like Sandra in S20: HvV, Dee can say “They won’t give me the money again,” and some might believe her. And unlike Savannah, Dee is smart enough to know how to move the target to someone else. I don’t think anybody will take Coach seriously enough to want him gone early, so he’s pretty safe too. Tiffany got blindsided while holding an Idol, so that lowers her threat level.

That leaves Charlie, Kamilla and Chrissy as likely first boots. All three came close to winning, with Charlie and Chrissy making it to the finals. Kamilla is crafty enough to create a reason to keep her around by putting a target on someone else. She did that to Charity, David, and Shauhin as a rookie. She’s great at puzzles, too. She’s less threatening as long as Kyle is on another tribe. My guess is Charlie or Chrissy is the first one gone from this tribe. Charlie was a little too dependent on Maria and Kenzie the first time around. He didn’t really create reasons to keep him. He didn’t have to because his tribe only lost one pre-merge challenge. And post-merge, Q was so hated and Maria too threatening for anyone to notice Charlie. But Chrissy was disliked by every woman in her first season. If she hasn’t adjusted her attitude in that department, she’ll make it easy to kick her out first. It’s a toss-up between Dee and Kamilla as to who’ll be targeted next, but whoever survives could make a very deep run.

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So, there you have it. I gave it my best shot. Seasons with all returning players are so difficult to handicap because we’re just not privy to all the pre-game maneuvering, which can help or hurt those who participate in it. Boston Rob’s pregame deals helped him a lot in S8: All-Stars, but Jeff Varner’s multiple pregame alliances didn’t do much for him at all in S34: Game Changers. Each player’s reputation can be a huge factor as well. Let’s just hope the Producers don’t interfere too much and just let these savvy players do their thing.

What do you think? Who is leaving early and who is positioned well for a deep run? Do former winners Dee, Kyle and Savannah have any chance at all? How about their close partners Kamilla and Rizo? Will they be targeted by association? Let me know in the comments.

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