As we wind down into the endgame of one of the most fun seasons in a long time, Survivor fans are anxious to have their key questions about the finale answered, such as: When will Christian play again, and why isn't it next season? Could we do an Outcasts twist at Final 6, and put Christian and Natalie back in? Also, how did John's Mayor of Slamtown jacket travel from Davie's back all the way to Ponderosa, such that John later wore it while on the jury? Is there a secret portal that connects Kalokalo camp and Ponderosa? Or did Davie just toss it out of the helicopter, like Probst used to do with the prize package after those SOS challenges?
We can't answer all these questions, but we can try to
predict the jury vote,
against our Survivor-writing best frenemies at:
As always, our challenge is to predict how each juror will cast their vote, or at least their order of preferences for the remaining players, and thus, who will win Survivor: David vs. Goliath. And obviously, to do so more accurately than the competition listed above. For this task, the TDT scribe roster from last season has been pared back to just three voices (Pat Ferrucci, Ryan Kaiser, and Jeff Pitman), but we're still plenty wordy about this sort of thing, so don't worry: You'll still be able to use this to fall asleep before finale night.
We individually ranked juror preferences for each of the people in the Final 6 (as well as the remaining players' perceived preferences for each other), then averaged the number for each juror (or potential juror), to come up with a consensus order. Full results are in a table at the bottom, should you be so inclined. Because we know everyone loves tables.
And as always, we hope to do this more accurately than the competition, above. Will this be season we finally pull that off? Eh, probably not. But let's try, anyway:
Juror #1: Elizabeth
Jeff Pitman - The early jurors are the most difficult to predict, but we found a pretty strong consensus for Elizabeth's preferences: She'd prefer that an original David win the game, and she voted with Nick on the Jessica boot at the Davids' only Tribal Council. She then bonded with Kara at Camp Vuku, so she'll probably prefer Kara over the other Goliaths. After that, maybe a slight preference for the Goliath women over Mike, although apparently we see (Elizabeth seeing) Angelina tipping Elizabeth off about her being the target as more of a jury management attempt than as a genuine human moment.
Pat Ferrucci - Out of everyone on the jury, I think Elizabeth will be most loyal to her original tribe. This makes sense, of course, since she was the first on the jury voted out. We here at TDT remember Elizabeth’s alliance with Nick, so he’s most likely to receive her vote. Beyond that, Davie is a David and then we all think Elizabeth will prioritize other women, mostly because that’s who she talked to the most.
Juror #2: John
Jeff Pitman - John is a bit of a mystery as a juror. His in-game story didn't overlap much with anyone left in the game. His narrative consisted mostly of briefly trying to work with Natalie on original Goliath beach, light-hearted Brochacho hijinks at Tiva, and staying Goliath Strong after the merge. Still, as a juror he's seemed to enjoy the blindsides, so if Davie makes the finals (he probably won't) John's a potential Davie voter. After that, he'll probably go for people he saw making moves, with a slight preference for Goliaths, hence the slight edge for Alison over Nick. Since none of us picked Davie first (but we all picked him second), it's hard to discern intent from our collective rankings.
Juror #3: Dan
Ryan Kaiser - If Kara is in the final three and Dan doesn’t vote for her, then once and for all, we will know there is no such thing as true love. On the opposite end of the love/hate spectrum, Angelina has 0% chance of getting Dan’s vote. Between the rest, I think Dan will commend getting duped by the Davids and vote for Davie or Nick if Kara is already on the jury. Between the two, I’d give the slight edge to Davie since they both likely shared a couple of nerdgasms during their time on the island together. If none of those options are present, then Dan defaults to Mike probably because Mike stuck with Dan on the night of his demise. Dan probably won’t see Alison as much more than just kind of “being there.” (Will that be different for other jurors?)
Juror #4: Alec
Jeff Pitman - Alec was a surprise standout in his time on the show, and he showed an admirable thirst for gameplay and appreciation of Big Moves. It's not clear how biggest mover and Alec's fellow Vuku flipper Davie ended up down in fourth place, but that's mainly because Alec had a lot of connections in the game. First is probably Nick, respect for the vote steal play. Then a Shaka Brah to Alison, with whom Alec worked most closely in the post-merge. Then his fellow Instagram influencer Kara, for some reason. Then Davie. Heck, even Mike has a shot at Alec's vote. Sadly, Angelina does not.
Pat Ferrucci - Alec is kind of a tough one to predict, I think. Basically, just as it was in the actual game, he’s the least likely to see original tribal lines when voting. I think he’s also going to reward strong gameplay. Alec and Nick strategized a lot together, so he probably gets that vote. I admit, I’m a little surprised that my fellow bloggers thought Alison would get his vote over Kara, though. I don’t agree, but do think he prioritizes some Goliaths over Davie. We’ll see, though. If Nick isn’t sitting at final tribal, Alec’s vote might really be live.
Juror #5: Carl
Jeff Pitman - Carl was the Godfather, and perhaps the chief proponent for the Davids staying David Strong after the merge. As such, his fellow Davids, Davie and Nick, are the most likely recipients of his jury vote, should either reach the finals (with an edge to Davie, since they were tribemates throughout, except while Carl was on Exile). Angelina was working closely with Carl, so she might be next, although Carl and Kara were Vuku tribemates, and tried working together post-merge. Tough luck, Mike and Alison. Have a beer instead.
Juror #6: Gabby
Ryan Kaiser - I’d find it hard for a David not to vote for a David, and of the two, Gabby was more in sync with Nick during the game than she was with Davie so I think she’d lean Nick’s direction. The TDT average put Alison above Davie in Gabby’s ranking which I could see given their relationship that developed since their time together on Tiva, but that theme though. I can see Gabby being generally frustrated with Angelina and Mike for never being straight with her except for Mike’s vote in the Carl boot, so if Gabby goes for any Goliath, it’d be Alison then Kara.
Juror #7: Christian
Jeff Pitman - Christian is, above all else, a superfan. He reveres gameplay and strategy, and he'll likely vote accordingly. He's also an original David, but luckily for Davie and Nick, they've made the biggest plays, at least the ones to which Christian was privy. Christian's level-headed enough to vote for Mike, the author of his own blindside, should Davie and Nick not be available. Christian also worked briefly with his erstwhile Strike Force alliance-mate Alison, and likely would respect her ballot-dodging expertise, as they frequently saw their names come up at the same Tribals. One of those four should be expecting Christian's vote.
This marks the end of the current jury, but there should still be three more voters joining them, of the six remaining players. So we'll also try to project their preferences, sorted alphabetically:
Potential juror #1: Alison
Jeff Pitman - As one of the bigger physical and strategic threats left, Alison could well end up a juror over the remaining three eliminations. If she does, she'll most likely stay Goliath Strong, since the David she worked with the most (Gabby) is already on the jury. Kara seems like the most likely recipient of her praise, although after that it's less clear. Alison has certainly "wow"ed at moves Nick and Davie have made, and has sought 85-year-old Mike's good graces just this episode. The one certainty here, as Alison has made clear repeatedly: No matter how solid the jury pitch might be, Alison will not be buying what Angelina is selling.
Pat Ferrucci - Just like in the actual game, Alison seems loyal – but not that loyal – to a whole lot of people at the same time. Basically, she floats. I think Kara is her obvious most-trusted ally most of the game. Then it gets a little more difficult. She clearly trusted Mike this week and probably knows pretty well how much he’s done behind the scenes. We know she’s been the most vocally against Angelina, so that puts the two Davids in the middle, with Nick edging out Davie.
Potential juror #2: Angelina
Ryan Kaiser - She’s lasted this long — I don’t see any reason for Angelina to be voted out now. She was at risk just before and just after the merge, but given her reputation, revenge rice and all, the only more boneheaded move than not taking Angelina to the end would be having taken Christian there instead. For the sake of argument, if she’s on that jury, we all agree Angelina will vote for her closest ally Mike, the one she’s been with the whole game, over anyone. Maybe she wouldn’t if he’s responsible for her boot, but I can’t see him in that position. After Mike, given her feminist narrative, it’d make sense to see Angelina support a Goliath girl. Our group as a whole said Nick would slightly edge out Alison, and given the Jabeni jiving, maybe that’d be true. Like I said, though, this forecasting is mostly fluff because Angelina won’t be casting a vote at final tribal council. She’ll be doing what she does best and asking for one.
Potential juror #3: Davie
Jeff Pitman - Devilish Davie is probably the biggest threat to win now that Christian's out of the game, so there's a high probability he'll end up a juror instead. If he does, his best frenemy Nick is virtually guaranteed to receive Davie's vote, should Nick reach the finals. After that, it's a lot less certain. It's not really clear which of the Goliaths Davie has been working with. Davie bonded briefly with Kara at Vuku, and they had a plan to blindside Nick going, until Alison blew it up, and Davie decided to pull the ripcord on it anyway, after Nick fessed up about his fake idol. After that maybe Mike? Sure... or Alison. Angelina did vote with Davie, Nick, and Carl at the Tribal where Carl was getting blindsided, but apparently we don't think Davie will value that loyalty? Sigh, I dunno.
Pat Ferrucci - With Davie, it’s pretty obvious that if Nick is sitting at final tribal, he gets the vote. After Nick, though, it’s a little more tricky. Last week, we saw Davie go to Kara with his plan. He talked to Kara before anyone else, so we can maybe assume Kara is second in line for Davie’s vote. We know he’s worked with Mike in the past, so he gets third. If we assume Angelina is last – because she seemingly always is – then Alison is fourth.
Potential juror #4: Kara'
Ryan Kaiser - Aside from Dan, we really only have known Kara’s allies to be Alec and Alison (Natalia too if we venture back to Vuku). Thus, if she’s a juror and Alison is a finalist, that’s where her vote should be going. Given the theme of this season, I think any Goliath up against a David in the finals is going to have the odds stacked against them (oh, how I love me some good irony). Kara perceived Nick as a big threat, so if he makes it to the end, she’ll likely use those same reasons to give him the million, although between him and Davie as the Davids, I could see her heart guiding her more toward a Davie vote. I had Mike and Angelina at the bottom of most jurors’ voting likelihood, but their best bet is to take Alison to the end. Kara’s vote they wouldn’t have, but I think that’d be their only chance at getting many others.
Potential juror #5: Mike
Jeff Pitman - Mike's almost guaranteed not to be a juror, right? What's the scenario where someone targets Mike? Well ... okay, true, he could lose at F4 firemaking. So whatever, here are Mike's highly scientific jury vote projections: He'll vote for his fellow Rock Star, Nick. How could anyone turn down the guy who made him make embarrassing sounds and hand gestures on national TV? If Nick isn't there, Mike'll vote for someone else. Davie? Sure, why not. Kara? Okay, sounds good. Alison? Fine. Wait, can't Angelina even get a jury vote from Mike? She'd vote for him! Please, Mike, it would mean the world to her. (Sadly, that is a scene we probably won't see.)
Potential juror #6: Nick
Jeff Pitman - Unlike Mike, Nick could well miss the finals, because he's one of the two biggest winner threats left. Nick's preferences are probably a bit easier to forecast, though: If Davie's around, he can slam home Nick's jury vote just as easily as he can dunk a buoy. If not, Nick's fellow Rock Star, Mike, would be the next most likely gift recipient from jolly old Saint Nick. Then Alison or Kara, maybe. Which means that, despite Angelina working in lockstep with Nick over the past two votes, we don't see him voting to give her the million. Which probably says something terrible about us collectively. We're sorry.
So that's the end of our projections. Should Nick reach the finals against any two Goliaths, he wins, handily. Should Davie do the same, it's depends a bit more who those Goliaths are, but he gets at least five votes. So in any David vs. two Goliaths final, we see the David winning. (Pretend to be surprised.) Should something truly unexpected happen, like an all-women final three, that would give us a 5-4-1 Alison victory, which would be a spectacular, thrilling end. Not as thrilling as Angelina winning, of course, but this is reality TV prognostication, not epic fantasy.
No matter what, it's been a great season, and there will be plenty to celebrate, no matter who wins.
Once again, though, we need to project a vote total in case of a tie-breaker between the various sites' projections. So here goes:
Final vote total: 7-3-0.
Those 7? Probably Nick. But we'll see.
Other David vs. Goliath finale jury predictions
The TDT David vs. Goliath writer roster
Jeff Pitman is the founder of the True Dork Times, and probably should find better things to write about than Survivor. So far he hasn't, though. He's also responsible for the Survivometer, calendar, boxscores, and contestant pages, so if you want to complain about those, do so in the comments, or on twitter: @truedorktimes