As we wind down into the endgame of one of the most fun seasons in a long time, Survivor fans are anxious to have their key questions about the finale answered, such as: When will Christian play again, and why isn't it next season? Could we do an Outcasts twist at Final 6, and put Christian and Natalie back in? Also, how did John's Mayor of Slamtown jacket travel from Davie's back all the way to Ponderosa, such that John later wore it while on the jury? Is there a secret portal that connects Kalokalo camp and Ponderosa? Or did Davie just toss it out of the helicopter, like Probst used to do with the prize package after those SOS challenges?
We can't answer all these questions, but we can try to
predict the jury vote, alongside valiantly
against our Survivor-writing best frenemies at:
As always, our challenge is to predict how each juror will cast their vote, or at least their order of preferences for the remaining players, and thus, who will win Survivor: David vs. Goliath. And obviously, to do so more accurately than the competition listed above. For this task, the TDT scribe roster from last season has been pared back to just three voices (Pat Ferrucci, Ryan Kaiser, and Jeff Pitman), but we're still plenty wordy about this sort of thing, so don't worry: You'll still be able to use this to fall asleep before finale night.
We individually ranked juror preferences for each of the people in the Final 6 (as well as the remaining players' perceived preferences for each other), then averaged the number for each juror (or potential juror), to come up with a consensus order. Full results are in a table at the bottom, should you be so inclined. Because we know everyone loves tables.
And as always, we hope to do this more accurately than the competition, above. Will this be season we finally pull that off? Eh, probably not. But let's try, anyway:
Juror #1: Elizabeth
Jeff Pitman - The early jurors
are the most difficult to predict, but we found a pretty
strong consensus for Elizabeth's preferences: She'd prefer
that an original David win the game, and she voted with Nick
on the Jessica boot at the Davids' only Tribal Council. She
then bonded with Kara at Camp Vuku, so she'll probably
prefer Kara over the other Goliaths. After that, maybe a
slight preference for the Goliath women over Mike, although
apparently we see (Elizabeth seeing) Angelina tipping
Elizabeth off about her being the target as more of a jury
management attempt than as a genuine human moment.
Pat Ferrucci - Out of everyone on
the jury, I think Elizabeth will be most loyal to her
original tribe. This makes sense, of course, since she was
the first on the jury voted out. We here at TDT remember
Elizabeth’s alliance with Nick, so he’s most
likely to receive her vote. Beyond that, Davie is a David
and then we all think Elizabeth will prioritize other women,
mostly because that’s who she talked to the most.
Juror #2: John
Jeff Pitman - John is a bit of a
mystery as a juror. His in-game story didn't overlap much
with anyone left in the game. His narrative consisted mostly
of briefly trying to work with Natalie on original Goliath
beach, light-hearted Brochacho hijinks at Tiva, and staying
Goliath Strong after the merge. Still, as a juror he's
seemed to enjoy the blindsides, so if Davie makes the finals
(he probably won't) John's a potential Davie voter. After
that, he'll probably go for people he saw making moves, with
a slight preference for Goliaths, hence the slight edge for
Alison over Nick. Since none of us picked Davie first (but
we all picked him second), it's hard to discern intent from
our collective rankings.
Juror #3: Dan
Ryan Kaiser - If Kara is in the
final three and Dan doesn’t vote
for her, then once and for all, we will know there is no
such thing as true love. On the opposite end of the
love/hate spectrum, Angelina has 0% chance of getting
Dan’s vote. Between the rest, I think Dan will
commend getting duped by the Davids and vote for Davie or
Nick if Kara is already on the jury. Between the two,
I’d give the slight edge to Davie since they both
likely shared a couple of nerdgasms during their time on the
island together. If none of those options are present,
then Dan defaults to Mike probably because Mike stuck with
Dan on the night of his demise. Dan probably
won’t see Alison as much more than just kind of
“being there.” (Will that be different for other
jurors?)
Juror #4: Alec
Jeff
Pitman - Alec was a surprise standout in
his time on the show, and he showed an admirable thirst for
gameplay and appreciation of Big Moves. It's not clear how
biggest mover and Alec's fellow Vuku flipper Davie ended up
down in fourth place, but that's mainly because Alec had a
lot of connections in the game. First is probably Nick,
respect for the vote steal play. Then a Shaka Brah to
Alison, with whom Alec worked most closely in the
post-merge. Then his fellow Instagram influencer Kara, for
some reason. Then Davie. Heck, even Mike has a shot at
Alec's vote. Sadly, Angelina does not.
Pat
Ferrucci - Alec is kind of a tough one to
predict, I think. Basically, just as it was in the actual
game, he’s the least likely to see original tribal
lines when voting. I think he’s also going to reward
strong gameplay. Alec and Nick strategized a lot together,
so he probably gets that vote. I admit, I’m a little
surprised that my fellow bloggers thought Alison would get
his vote over Kara, though. I don’t agree, but do
think he prioritizes some Goliaths over Davie. We’ll
see, though. If Nick isn’t sitting at final tribal,
Alec’s vote might really be live.
Juror #5: Carl
Jeff
Pitman - Carl was the Godfather, and
perhaps the chief proponent for the Davids staying David
Strong after the merge. As such, his fellow Davids, Davie
and Nick, are the most likely recipients of his jury vote,
should either reach the finals (with an edge to Davie, since
they were tribemates throughout, except while Carl was on
Exile). Angelina was working closely with Carl, so she might
be next, although Carl and Kara were Vuku tribemates, and
tried working together post-merge. Tough luck, Mike and
Alison. Have a beer instead.
Juror #6: Gabby
Ryan
Kaiser - I’d find it hard for a
David not to vote for a David, and of the two, Gabby was
more in sync with Nick during the game than she was with
Davie so I think she’d lean Nick’s
direction. The TDT average put Alison above Davie in
Gabby’s ranking which I could see given their
relationship that developed since their time together on
Tiva, but that theme though. I can see Gabby
being generally frustrated with Angelina and Mike for never
being straight with her except for Mike’s vote in the
Carl boot, so if Gabby goes for any Goliath, it’d be
Alison then Kara.
Juror #7: Christian
Jeff Pitman - Christian is, above
all else, a superfan. He reveres gameplay and strategy, and
he'll likely vote accordingly. He's also an original David,
but luckily for Davie and Nick, they've made the biggest
plays, at least the ones to which Christian was privy.
Christian's level-headed enough to vote for Mike, the author
of his own blindside, should Davie and Nick not be
available. Christian also worked briefly with his erstwhile
Strike Force alliance-mate Alison, and likely would respect
her ballot-dodging expertise, as they frequently saw their
names come up at the same Tribals. One of those four should
be expecting Christian's vote.
This marks the end of the current jury, but there should still be three more voters joining them, of the six remaining players. So we'll also try to project their preferences, sorted alphabetically:
Potential juror #1: Alison
Jeff Pitman - As one of the
bigger physical and strategic threats left, Alison could
well end up a juror over the remaining three eliminations.
If she does, she'll most likely stay Goliath Strong, since
the David she worked with the most (Gabby) is already on the
jury. Kara seems like the most likely recipient of her
praise, although after that it's less clear. Alison has
certainly "wow"ed at moves Nick and Davie have made, and has
sought 85-year-old Mike's good graces just this episode. The
one certainty here, as Alison has made clear repeatedly: No
matter how solid the jury pitch might be, Alison will not be
buying what Angelina is selling.
Pat Ferrucci - Just like in the
actual game, Alison seems loyal – but not that loyal
– to a whole lot of people at the same time.
Basically, she floats. I think Kara is her obvious
most-trusted ally most of the game. Then it gets a little
more difficult. She clearly trusted Mike this week and
probably knows pretty well how much he’s done behind
the scenes. We know she’s been the most vocally
against Angelina, so that puts the two Davids in the middle,
with Nick edging out Davie.
Potential juror #2: Angelina
Ryan Kaiser - She’s lasted
this long — I don’t see any reason for Angelina
to be voted out now. She was at risk just before and
just after the merge, but given her reputation, revenge rice
and all, the only more boneheaded move than not taking
Angelina to the end would be having taken Christian there
instead. For the sake of argument, if she’s on
that jury, we all agree Angelina will vote for her closest
ally Mike, the one she’s been with the whole game,
over anyone. Maybe she wouldn’t if he’s
responsible for her boot, but I can’t see him in that
position. After Mike, given her feminist narrative,
it’d make sense to see Angelina support a Goliath
girl. Our group as a whole said Nick would slightly
edge out Alison, and given the Jabeni jiving, maybe
that’d be true. Like I said, though, this
forecasting is mostly fluff because Angelina won’t be
casting a vote at final tribal council. She’ll
be doing what she does best and asking for one.
Potential juror #3: Davie
Jeff Pitman - Devilish Davie is
probably the biggest threat to win now that Christian's out
of the game, so there's a high probability he'll end up a
juror instead. If he does, his best frenemy Nick is
virtually guaranteed to receive Davie's vote, should Nick
reach the finals. After that, it's a lot less certain. It's
not really clear which of the Goliaths Davie has been
working with. Davie bonded briefly with Kara at Vuku, and
they had a plan to blindside Nick going, until Alison blew
it up, and Davie decided to pull the ripcord on it anyway,
after Nick fessed up about his fake idol. After that maybe
Mike? Sure... or Alison. Angelina did vote with
Davie, Nick, and Carl at the Tribal where Carl was getting
blindsided, but apparently we don't think Davie will value
that loyalty? Sigh, I dunno.
Pat Ferrucci - With Davie,
it’s pretty obvious that if Nick is sitting at final
tribal, he gets the vote. After Nick, though, it’s a
little more tricky. Last week, we saw Davie go to Kara with
his plan. He talked to Kara before anyone else, so we can
maybe assume Kara is second in line for Davie’s vote.
We know he’s worked with Mike in the past, so he gets
third. If we assume Angelina is last – because she
seemingly always is – then Alison is fourth.
Potential juror #4: Kara
'
Ryan Kaiser - Aside from Dan, we
really only have known Kara’s allies to be Alec and
Alison (Natalia too if we venture back to Vuku). Thus,
if she’s a juror and Alison is a finalist,
that’s where her vote should be going. Given the
theme of this season, I think any Goliath up against a David
in the finals is going to have the odds stacked against them
(oh, how I love me some good irony). Kara perceived
Nick as a big threat, so if he makes it to the end,
she’ll likely use those same reasons to give him the
million, although between him and Davie as the Davids, I
could see her heart guiding her more toward a Davie
vote. I had Mike and Angelina at the bottom of most
jurors’ voting likelihood, but their best bet is to
take Alison to the end. Kara’s vote they
wouldn’t have, but I think that’d be their only
chance at getting many others.
Potential juror #5: Mike
Jeff Pitman - Mike's almost
guaranteed not to be a juror, right? What's the scenario
where someone targets Mike? Well ... okay, true, he could
lose at F4 firemaking. So whatever, here are Mike's highly
scientific jury vote projections: He'll vote for his fellow
Rock Star, Nick. How could anyone turn down the guy who made
him make embarrassing sounds and hand gestures on national
TV? If Nick isn't there, Mike'll vote for someone else.
Davie? Sure, why not. Kara? Okay, sounds good. Alison? Fine.
Wait, can't Angelina even get a jury vote from Mike? She'd
vote for him! Please, Mike, it would mean the world to her.
(Sadly, that is a scene we probably won't see.)
Potential juror #6: Nick
Jeff Pitman - Unlike Mike, Nick
could well miss the finals, because he's one of the two
biggest winner threats left. Nick's preferences are probably
a bit easier to forecast, though: If Davie's around, he can
slam home Nick's jury vote just as easily as he can dunk a
buoy. If not, Nick's fellow Rock Star, Mike, would be the
next most likely gift recipient from jolly old Saint Nick.
Then Alison or Kara, maybe. Which means that, despite
Angelina working in lockstep with Nick over the past two
votes, we don't see him voting to give her the million.
Which probably says something terrible about us
collectively. We're sorry.
So that's the end of our projections. Should Nick reach the finals against any two Goliaths, he wins, handily. Should Davie do the same, it's depends a bit more who those Goliaths are, but he gets at least five votes. So in any David vs. two Goliaths final, we see the David winning. (Pretend to be surprised.) Should something truly unexpected happen, like an all-women final three, that would give us a 5-4-1 Alison victory, which would be a spectacular, thrilling end. Not as thrilling as Angelina winning, of course, but this is reality TV prognostication, not epic fantasy.
No matter what, it's been a great season, and there will be plenty to celebrate, no matter who wins.
Once again, though, we need to project a vote total in case of a tie-breaker between the various sites' projections. So here goes:
Final vote total: 7-3-0.
Those 7? Probably Nick. But we'll see.
As threatened, here are our individual voting results:
Juror | Finalist | Pat | Ryan | Jeff | Consensus |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elizabeth | Nick | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
Davie | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | |
Kara | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.0 | |
Alison | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4.3 | |
Angelina | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4.7 | |
Mike | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.0 | |
John | Davie | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 |
Alison | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2.7 | |
Nick | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | |
Kara | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3.7 | |
Angelina | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4.7 | |
Mike | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5.0 | |
Dan | Kara | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
Davie | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2.7 | |
Nick | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3.0 | |
Mike | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | |
Alison | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 | |
Angelina | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.0 | |
Alec | Nick | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2.0 |
Alison | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2.3 | |
Kara | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2.7 | |
Davie | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3.7 | |
Mike | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4.3 | |
Angelina | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.0 | |
Carl | Davie | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
Nick | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | |
Angelina | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3.7 | |
Kara | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4.0 | |
Mike | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4.7 | |
Alison | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5.7 | |
Gabby | Nick | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 |
Alison | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | |
Davie | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | |
Kara | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.0 | |
Angelina | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5.3 | |
Mike | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5.7 | |
Christian | Davie | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 |
Nick | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | |
Mike | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3.3 | |
Alison | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3.7 | |
Kara | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 | |
Angelina | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.0 | |
Alison | Kara | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
Mike | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2.7 | |
Nick | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3.0 | |
Davie | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3.3 | |
Angelina | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 | |
Angelina | Mike | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
Kara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2.7 | |
Nick | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3.3 | |
Alison | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3.7 | |
Davie | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4.3 | |
Davie | Nick | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
Kara | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2.3 | |
Mike | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3.0 | |
Alison | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4.0 | |
Angelina | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4.7 | |
Kara | Alison | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 |
Nick | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2.3 | |
Mike | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | |
Davie | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | |
Angelina | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 | |
Mike | Nick | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
Davie | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3.0 | |
Kara | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | |
Alison | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3.7 | |
Angelina | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4.0 | |
Nick | Davie | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
Mike | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | |
Alison | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3.7 | |
Kara | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4.0 | |
Angelina | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4.3 |
Other David vs. Goliath finale jury predictions
The TDT David vs. Goliath writer roster
Jeff
Pitman is the founder of the True Dork Times, and
probably should find better things to write about than
Survivor. So far he hasn't, though. He's also responsible
for the Survivometer, calendar, boxscores, and contestant
pages, so if you want to complain about those, do so in the
comments, or on twitter: @truedorktimes
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