We live in some strange times. Every time I read the news – which as a journalism professor is kind of my job – I get frustrated. It’s fundamentally amazing to me how hypocritical our leaders and citizens can be on a literally everyday basis.

 

But it’s also frustrating in Survivor. Admit it: Is there anything more frustrating when watching Survivor than seeing castaways criticizing others while doing the exact same thing themselves? OK, yeah, maybe only reward challenges involving pulling marbles out of a pouch are more annoying. But besides that? Nope.

 

You know where I’m going here: Holy crap, the hypocrisy of basically everyone out there except Mike and maybe Ryan. We saw Lauren, Devon and Ashley get upset with Ben because he flipped on them. Of course, he did this after overhearing them talk about him. And we the audience know these folks have been thinking about turning on Ben for days. On the other side, Chrissy almost weekly provides a masterclass in hypocrisy whenever she doesn’t have power.

 

Now, in everyone’s defense, we’ve seen the game turn a bit more personal than usual this season, but how can castaways – and people in general – act so strongly about certain actions when they’re doing the same things? Don’t they realize how dumb they look?

 

The answer is no, they don’t understand they’re being hypocritical. And this brings us to our theory this week: self-justification theory.

 

The theory has been around for a while but was furthered early this century by some European social psychologists; it basically builds on the idea of cognitive dissonance, which we’ve talked about before. In essence, this theory describes the mental gymnastics people’s brains compete in when they’re being hypocritical.

 

Fundamentally, when we display hypocritical behavior or beliefs, it’s because we’ve gone through either an internal or external self-justification process. International self-justification happens when a person simply convinces themselves something is not right. We see this all the time in politics. For example, people who believe Al Franken was right to announce his resignation but believe Donald Trump or Roy Moore are different. They’ve convinced themselves, despite tons of evidence, that Trump and Moore are innocent. Another example would be someone who continues smoking because they’ve convinced themselves science is wrong and smoking isn’t bad for them.

 

I would assume it’s internal self-justification that frustrates most of us. What happens on Survivor most of the time, I believe, is external self-justification. This is when people excuse their own behavior and think of it slightly differently.

 

 

Here’s where we get to this episode. Chrissy clearly lies in this game. We’ve seen her do it a hundred times. Yet, when Ben lies to her, he’s a horrible person. Why? Because she justifies her lies “as part of the game” but Ben got too personal when he was “smug.” Those are mental gymnastics. We saw the same thing with Lauren, Ashley and, to a lesser extent, Devon. They talked about eliminating Ben several times. In their minds, that’s OK because they “wouldn’t” have done it right then. But Ben actually making the move is different.

 

In the end, this is another theory that scientifically explains what we already know: People need to make excuses to act hypocritically with a seemingly clear conscience. We see it all the time on Survivor. My favorite example is how lying is always cool, but when you swear on your kids or something, it’s totally different. Heck, we even saw Joe needle Ben this way this season with the whole “swear on the Marine” thing.

 

Hopefully, though, this season – which keeps getting better – ends with a jury that won’t be hypocritical. I take back what I wrote above: The only thing more frustrating than a challenge revolving around picking marbles out of a pouch is a hypocritical jury.

 

OK, going into the final six, here’s what I’m thinking:  

 

Solewa

 

• Mike – Another week, another successful episode for Mike. I’m not sure he’s playing a good game, but the jury is filled with his one-time allies and he’s definitely played a flashy game. His performances at tribal council make it look like Mike is a savvier and a more in-control player than reality tells us. But Mike honestly owns a shot to win and I don’t think there is any way he isn’t in the final five.

 

• Chrissy – In the early part of the game, I really thought Chrissy was playing the best. But after reading exit interviews and watching her lose some power the last couple weeks, I really don’t think so anymore. Of all the remaining players, can Chrissy beat anyone besides maybe Ashley? She’s played, overall, a better game than Ashley and, I guess, Ryan and Mike, but that doesn’t mean she can win. Who on that jury would vote for her? I think, depending on who wins immunity and who finds immunity, Chrissy might be the person who doesn’t make the final episode. I hope I’m wrong though.

 

• Ben – What a great idol play. But… and there’s seemingly always a but with Ben… I just don’t see a move forward here. Ben is the biggest target left in the game. He doesn’t have any real close allies. He’s no longer in control of an idol. He’s been, from my recollection, truly awful at individual challenges. Where does Ben go from here? I’m enjoying his game, so I hope he at least makes the final episode, but I don’t know…

 

• Ashley – I still think Ashley is the only person left in this game who can’t win. I’m really not sure who she could sit next to – besides maybe Ryan and Chrissy – and pull off a victory. She still doesn’t have any signature moves she can point to as her ideas, and the editing continually illustrates her presenting ideas that would actually be bad for her alliance. With all that said, the immunity wins and the fact that people seemingly like her could help.

 

• Ryan – Unlike how he reacted when called out by Ali after that Roark boot, Ryan did a great job maneuvering the fallout with Ben and the surprise Joe boot. With it looking like both Ben and Chrissy have taken up the mantle of Biggest Threat Remaining™, Ryan will seemingly coast into the final five and then become a useful vote for people … all the while having some friends on the jury. I don’t in any way think Ryan should win this game, but he’s got a better shot than I thought maybe two weeks ago.

 

• Devon – While it seemed like Lauren and Ashley really believed booting Ben was the right move, that conversation near the water well proved Devon was playing the best game. His immediate understanding of the situation illustrated that while he came off as a surfer bro for most of the season, Devon is an awesome player who hopefully gets a call back soon regardless of the outcome of this season.  

 

You know, no matter what happens, we’re getting an awesome final five. I'm excited.