Episode 14: "Seems Like a No-Brainer"
S22: Redemption Island Episode 14 boxscore
Filmed: September 20-23, 2010 | Aired: May 15, 2011
- Ep.14 duel: "A Leg Up" - This one goes a long time (over an hour), but in the end, Andrea wins, and is back in the game. Grant, Matt, and Mike head to the jury.
- Ep.14 F5 IC: "A Numbers Game" - This time it's the *actual* lamest challenge in Survivor history, just putting number tiles in order. Pathetic. Ashley wins, a few seconds ahead of Boston Rob.
- Ep.14 F5 Tribal: To the surprise of nobody, Andrea is voted right back out again, 4-[0] over an idol-playing Rob (as it expired). Andrea had tried to flip Ashley and Natalie, but Rob showed them his idol, and I guess nobody wanted Phillip out?
- Ep.14 F4 IC: "Meso Maze" - It's another split-second challenge win for Rob, who somehow solves his word puzzle before Ashley, despite her having three of the four words.
- Ep.14 F4 Tribal: Ashley is the next biggest threat remaining for Rob, so she's out, 3-1 over Phillip.
- Ep.14 Final Tribal and jury vote: Phillip gets a jury vote! (from Ralph). Everyone else votes for Rob, and he wins, 8-1-0. Poor Natalie.
Episode 14 scoring notes
- Duel scoring: There is no partial credit for SurvAv/SurvSc purposes in the final duel, because for the first time in the post-merge, it was actually do-or-die. Not so for MPF-D, though, because beating other people still got you closer to winning.
- F5 IC scoring: Rob and Andrea are clearly right behind Ashley, but it's unclear how far behind them Phillip and Natalie are. When Ashley has two rows to go, Natalie still has a bag tied to her balance beam, but it's gone as Ashley finishes. Similarly, Phillip has a visible bag behind Rob when he's in the 70s, but we don't get that shot of Rob again. So Rob and Andrea tie for 2nd, Phillip and Natalie tie for 4th.
F5 vote count:
- Andrea received 4 votes, from Ashley, Natalie, Phillip, and Rob (voted out, 4-1).
- [*Rob received 1 vote, from Andrea, voided by his (expiring) idol play.]
F4 vote count:
- Ashley received 3 votes, from Natalie, Phillip, and Rob (voted out, 3-1).
- Phillip received 1 vote, from Ashley.
Jury vote count:
- Boston Rob received 8 jury votes, from David, Julie, Steve, Grant, Matt, Mike, and Ashley (winner, 8-1-0).
- Phillip received 1 jury vote, from Ralph.
- Natalie received 0 jury votes.
| Duel stats | Overall score | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChW | ChA | Plc | % Fin | MPF-D |
| Mike | 0.00 | 0.50 | 2 | 0.75 | 88.3% |
| Matt | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3 | 0.50 | 86.7% |
| Andrea | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1 | 1.00 | 75.0% |
| Grant | 0.00 | 0.50 | 4 | 0.25 | 25% |
| F5 Immunity challenge | F4 Immunity challenge | Overall score | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChW | ChA | Plc | % Fin | ChW | ChA | Plc | % Fin | MPF |
| Boston Rob | 0 | 1 | t-2 | 0.70 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 73.2% |
| Andrea | 0 | 1 | t-2 | 0.70 | - | - | - | - | 55.8% |
| Ashley | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.75 | 61.4% |
| Natalie | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 0.30 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.25 | 38.8% |
| Phillip | 0 | 1 | t-4 | 0.30 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.50 | 37.7% |
| F5 Tribal Council stats | F4 Tribal Council stats | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | VFB | VAP | TotV | TCA | VFB | VAP | TotV | TCA |
| Boston Rob | 1 | 0* | 5 | 1 | 1 | - | 4 | 1 |
| Phillip | 1 | - | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Natalie | 1 | - | 5 | 1 | 1 | - | 4 | 1 |
| Ashley | 1 | - | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Andrea | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jury vote stats | Overall scores | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | JVF | TotJ | JV% | SurvSc | SurvAv |
| Boston Rob | 8 | 9 | 0.89 | 2.23 | 12.56 |
| Phillip | 1 | 9 | 0.11 | 1.08 | 2.54 |
| Natalie | 0 | 9 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 6.81 |
| Ashley | - | - | - | 1.08 | 6.03 |
| Andrea | - | - | - | 0.85 | 3.64 |
| Mike | - | - | - | 1.03 | 4.00 |
| Matt | - | - | - | 0.85 | 4.92 |
| Grant | - | - | - | 1.09 | 4.28 |
| Ralph | - | - | - | 0.41 | 1.35 |
| Steve | - | - | - | 0.44 | 1.24 |
| Julie | - | - | - | 0.43 | 1.43 |
| David | - | - | - | 0.32 | 0.92 |
| Sarita | - | - | - | 0.70 | 1.78 |
| Stephanie | - | - | - | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| Krista | - | - | - | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Kristina | - | - | - | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Russell | - | - | - | -0.06 | 0.24 |
| Francesca | - | - | - | -0.44 | 0.00 |
Glossary of terms
- Challenge
stats
- ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
- ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
- ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
- SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
- Tribal
Council stats
- VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
- VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
- TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
- TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
- TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
- wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
- Jury
stats
- JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
- TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
- JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
- Overall
scores
- Survival Score (SurvSc). It's simply the sum of Challenge Win% (ChW%) + Tribal Council% (TC%) + Jury Vote%, for a maximum possible score of 2 (3 after the finale).
- Survival Average (SurvAv). It's a simple sum of fractional Challenge Wins (ChW), weighted TC Ratio (wTCR), and (eventually) a weighted Jury%. The latter two max out at six points total, for a theoretical maximum score of around 18 or so.