Episode 3: "Keep Hope Alive"
S22: Redemption Island Episode 3 boxscore
Filmed: August 21-23, 2010 | Aired: March 2, 2011
- Ep.3 duel: We finally get what was promised in the Ep1 preview of Ep2. Francesca gets the first two keys quickly, but Matt stages a comeback, and gets all three and unlocks his locks before Francesca gets key #3. First buff-burning (non-Randy).
- Ep.3 RC/IC: "Spin Cycle" - The only interesting Nicaragua tribal challenge is back, and Zapatera is throwing. Boston Rob "wins" it for Ometepe.
- Ep.3 idol (clue): Rob complains in confessional about how he can't take the rest of the day off after Ometepe "wins" because of idols, and grudgingly retrieves the clue from one of the reward chairs. Nobody notices.
- Ep.3 Tribal: Russell and Stephanie almost convince Julie to flip (would have been 4-3-2), but Julie stays true to her alliance, and Russell is out, 3-3-3 (5-1 on revote), over Ralph and Stephanie, respectively.
Episode 3 scoring notes
- MPF-D and duel scoring - Duels are individual challenges, but because the "arena" doesn't accommodate full-sized challenges, they're always less than full individual challenges in scale. So for SurvAv/SurvSC purposes, they only count as half of a ChA/ChW. It's also unfair to compare them to full individual challenges for MPF purposes (at max four competitors, mostly just two, meaning it's hard to earn less than 50%), but it's still impressive to keep winning, as Matt does (and Christine and Ozzy in the next season). So enter MPF-D, a duel-specific version of MPF. Scored the same way as MPF (Matt gets 1.00 for winning, Francesca 0.50 for second place). Hope that all makes sense. (For those of you checking the spreadsheets, duels are classified as Hero Challenges, fwiw.)
- Russell, Ralph, and Sarita's (first-round) votes were shown in the episode, and Stephanie's and Krista's are obviously for Ralph. But one problem of the RI format is no final words, just the booted player heading off to RI. That means we don't ever see the Tribal Council votes in the current streaming format. (I think they were originally shown as secret scenes on the CBS site, but are now long gone.) So hopefully I correctly noted them at the time.
Vote count:
- Russell received 3 votes, from Mike, Ralph, and Steve (voted out, 3-3-3; 5-1).
- Stephanie received 3 votes, from David, Julie, and Sarita.
- Ralph received 3 votes, from Krista, Russell, and Stephanie.
| Duel stats | Overall score | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChW | ChA | Plc | % Fin | MPF-D |
| Matt | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1 | 1.00 | 100% |
| Francesca | 0.00 | 0.50 | 2 | 0.50 | 50% |
| Immunity challenge | Tribal Council stats | Overall scores | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contestant | ChW | ChA | SO | VFB | VAP | TotV | TCA | SurvSc | SurvAv |
| Boston Rob | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 1.38 | 7.14 |
| Grant | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 1.38 | 7.14 |
| Ashley | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.88 | 3.64 |
| Natalie | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.88 | 3.64 |
| Phillip | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.76 | 1.89 |
| Andrea | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| Kristina | 0.14 | 0.14 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| Mike | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 1 | - | 9 | 1 | 1.62 | 7.24 |
| Steve | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 1 | - | 9 | 1 | 1.62 | 7.24 |
| Ralph | - | 0.14 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1.29 | 4.24 |
| Julie | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 0 | - | 9 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.24 |
| Krista | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 0 | - | 9 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.24 |
| Sarita | - | 0.14 | 1 | 0 | - | 9 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.24 |
| Russell | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| Stephanie | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| David | 0.00 | 0.14 | - | 0 | - | 9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.11 |
| Matt | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.06 | 2.25 |
| Francesca | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.44 | 0.00 |
Glossary of terms
- Challenge
stats
- ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
- ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
- ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
- SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
- Tribal
Council stats
- VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
- VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
- TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
- TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
- TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
- wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
- Jury
stats
- JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
- TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
- JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
- Overall
scores
- Survival Score (SurvSc). It's simply the sum of Challenge Win% (ChW%) + Tribal Council% (TC%) + Jury Vote%, for a maximum possible score of 2 (3 after the finale).
- Survival Average (SurvAv). It's a simple sum of fractional Challenge Wins (ChW), weighted TC Ratio (wTCR), and (eventually) a weighted Jury%. The latter two max out at six points total, for a theoretical maximum score of around 18 or so.