Come on in, guys! Once again, heading into the season finale of another Survivor season, this time Game Changers, we are pitting our prognosticatory powers against those of our fellow scribes at (alphabetically):
The game? Which finalist will each juror vote for, and thus, who will win Survivor: Game Changers? Last season, Andy Baker, Pat Ferrucci, and Jeff Pitman did this for #TeamTDT, this year we've lost Andy, but gained Ben Martell and Dan Otsuki. 33% more predictive power! (Note that our power last time was good enough for fourth place. Out of four. Woo!)
We're ranking juror preference order for the people in the Final 6, then averaging each pundit's number for a particular juror (or potential juror), to come up with a consensus order. Let's get to it!
Juror #1: Hali
Consensus: Cirie > Sarah > Aubry/Brad > Tai/Troyzan
Hali’s jury videos do seem to give a good sense of what she sees as important. She sees Cirie pulling strings as the godfather, and I definitely think Cirie gets Hali’s vote if she makes the end. Sarah vs Brad was a tough call, but the direction through three videos seems to be that Sarah has some upward momentum and Brad possibly some downward momentum, so if things continue in that vein I’m thinking Sarah would get Hali’s vote over Brad. Aubry gets her vote if it’s the other three at the end.
Hali: Cirie > Sarah > Brad > Aubry
Hali was just such a non-entity for the bulk of this season that I just don’t know what to make of her. However, she is long enough removed that I think she could actually make a good, objective choice considering how long it’s been since she’s played and not being overly close to anyone left—at least not that we saw. So… gameplay vote with a little social thrown in there for good measure? Oh, yeah, and she never seemed to get that along with Brad despite his pretty decent game. So that’s worth noting.
Hali: Cirie > Sarah >> Aubry? >>> Culpepper
Honesty, I literally have no idea where Hali’s head is at. I feel like the people she was most likely to vote for left the game recently. But, as Andy Baker wrote last year, “The further removed one is from the game, the more likely a player is to be ‘objective.’” I mean, I’m going to add a caveat to that: Unless your name is Debbie. However, I’ll take Andy’s advice here, but I do think Hali will hold a grudge against Brad, so:
Hali: Sarah > Cirie > Aubry > Tai > Troy > Brad
Hali's smart, she's athletic, but she's not a superfan. She does have a track record as a juror, in which she voted for underdog challenge beast Mike Holloway. As a defense lawyer, she champions underdogs, so that makes sense. Brad the (now-underdog) lawyer seems like the player Hali should most identify with, but she sees Cirie as the one running the show. She does also mention Sarah's move-making in her jury video. Could a Brad IC streak turn him into the second coming of Mike, though? Hmm.
Hali: Cirie > Brad > Sarah > Troyzan
Juror #2: Ozzy
Consensus: Cirie > Sarah > Aubry/Brad > Tai > Troyzan
Ozzy’s opinion on Sarah seems to be increasing all the time, to the extent it’s not impossible she could knock Cirie out of first place by the time they arrived at final three, but for now I still think Cirie carries Ozzy’s vote. Ozzy acknowledges Sarah’s game as cutthroat but is willing to reward it. He may speak for the vibe of Ponderosa as a whole when he says he can’t see Brad winning, but he’s still talking about Brad as the leader of the three boys.
Ozzy: Cirie > Sarah > Aubry > Brad
Let's look at who Ozzy's voted for before: Amanda and Sophie. I'd argue both of these votes are very based in emotion: adoring Amanda and not liking Coach… also not liking Parv. As such, I think his trend will continue because, as we saw, Ozzy's hair might be longer than ever, but the man is essentially unchanged. Gameplay will matter some, but if Ozzy feels as though someone of the people before him have wronged him or are unworthy to be called a Survivor, he'll shun them. If you didn't screw him over…you should like your chances.
Ozzy: Cirie >>> Aubry > Sarah > Culpepper
We know Ozzy likes player similar to himself: Athletic providers. That’s why I think Ozzy will reward whatever male makes the final three. I do, however, think Ozzy will put aside old grudges and reward Cirie potentially. I think he’ll look down on disloyalty. So:
Ozzy: Brad > Cirie > Tai > Sarah > Aubry > Troy
There's still a chance that Brad could swing Ozzy's vote with a big move in the final three Tribals, but Ozzy's jury video makes it pretty clear he's voting Cirie (in the unlikely event she makes it that far) or Sarah (although he doesn't think she'll get there). Or maybe Aubry. If Brad sweeps the remaining ICs, it could be interesting to see if that sways Ozzy's vote.
Ozzy: Cirie > Sarah > Aubry > Brad
Juror #3: Debbie
Consensus: Brad > Cirie > Tai > Aubry > Troyzan > Sarah
Debbie has examined her vote from the viewpoint of every philosopher in history, and also the viewpoint of Gru from Despicable Me, and she isn’t going to vote for Sarah. I think Cirie has possibly tipped Debbie over the edge to her perception of gameplay rather than loyalty, but after that Debbie will go loyalty down the line. Tai gets the taibreaker over Troy, because Kaoh Rong.
Debbie: Cirie > Brad > Tai > Troyzan
Debbie, I think, is a stubborn one. If she doesn’t find you particularly worthy when she left the game, I don’t think there’s much anyone can do to change that at the FTC. That being said, she seemed to scoff at the majority ditching Zeke while it had the numbers, so perhaps that’s a black mark against Cirie, Aubry, and Sarah. Then again, her whole relationship with Brad is just so confusing, who knows where that stands? Still, I think Debbie likes Tai. So…Tai?
Debbie: Tai > Culpepper > Cirie >> Sarah
If I had any clue what Debbie would do, well, I’d be a lot more intuitive than I am. I think Sarah does not get Debbie’s vote. Besides that, heck if I know. Here’s my guess:
Debbie: Brad > Aubry > Cirie > Tai > Troy > Sarah
Debbie is probably the only person who came out of the Michaela boot thinking "That was great for Cirie!" It helps that she really, really still seems to dislike Sarah. Coupled with her tempestuous affection for Brad, and ties to Tai, safe to say Sarah will not be getting Debbie's vote under any circumstances. Probably not Aubry either, who was her last season's Sarah. : |
Debbie: Cirie > Brad >>> Tai > Troyzan
Juror #4: Zeke
Consensus: Sarah > Cirie > Brad > Aubry > Tai > Troyzan
Zeke is very likely to go full David Murphy, and it might well work. Zeke clearly has more stock in the idea of Sarah winning than anyone else has in their particular horse in the race on the jury. If Cirie and Sarah somehow both make it to final three, Zeke’s persuasion skills might make things interesting. He’s made his feelings felt on Aubry and Brad as well.
Zeke: Sarah > Cirie > Aubry > Brad
Zeke is someone I firmly believe will assess the finalists as objectively as he is able to do so and pick the most game-changing one of them. Both Cirie and Sarah were tight with him out there, so either could grab his vote if they find themselves in the end. That being said, Cirie is a legend and Zeke is a fanboy. That’s a perfect storm.
Zeke: Cirie > Sarah >>> Culpepper >> Aubry
Considering the secret scenes and all, I think it’s pretty safe to say that if Sarah makes it to the end, she’ll take home Zeke’s vote. Besides Sarah, though, I bet Zeke will reward who played the best game. He’ll be objective. So how do I think Zeke’s sees the game so far? Well:
Zeke: Sarah > Brad > Cirie > Aubry > Tai > Troy
Above all else, Zeke is superfan who appreciates strategy and making moves. After the last boot, in his jury video he sees Sarah as the runaway winner, as long as she makes the finals. If Sarah's not there, he clearly appreciates Cirie's and Aubry's strategic chops, and ability to stay in the game while out of the numbers. But he's also keeping an eye on new underdog Brad.
Zeke: Sarah > Cirie > Aubry > Brad
Juror #5: Sierra
Consensus: Brad > Sarah > Troyzan > Cirie > Aubry > Tai
Sierra’s hard to figure out. She does seem to be more in the personalities than in the game, and I think she has a pretty poor read on what has been going on. I’m guessing her opinions could be moderated by people who turn up and explain events going on. However, it looks like she will be willing to forgive Sarah’s betrayal, and in that case she might be inclined to vote for Sarah so at least she was screwed over by the winner. I’ll go down the line with loyalty after that.
Sierra: Sarah > Brad > Troyzan > Cirie
To me, Sierra’s vote comes down to two things: 1) does she know Sarah voted for her? and 2) does she care, if she does know? Regardless, I think voting loyalty might trump faux-friendship.
Sierra: Culpepper > Sarah >>> Cirie > Troy
This is another castaway I’m not sure about. I don’t think Sierra will hold a big grudge against Sarah, but I also don’t think she’ll vote for Sarah over Brad. I think, like most jury members, this is all about Sarah, Brad and Cirie. Then the rest of the three is all a guess. So:
Sierra: Brad > Cirie > Sarah > Troy > Aubry > Tai
Sierra has an independent streak as a juror. She declined to vote for Mike in Worlds Apart, instead choosing Carolyn, someone she'd worked with and trusted. From her jury video, she says she's still rooting for "my boys, Brad and Troyzan." She sort of wants to respect Sarah's gameplay, but is still sort of mad, too. If Sarah gets to the end with an ideal set of opponents in Troyzan and Tai, Sierra might be the only Troyzan voter.
Sierra: Brad > Troyzan > Sarah > Tai
Juror #6: Andrea
Consensus: Cirie > Aubry/Sarah > Brad > Tai > Troyzan
Andrea is likely to put stock into who played the best game, but she also articulates the worst thing about Sarah’s game, which is that to many people she has come across as a bit false and disconnected. Cirie clearly gets Andrea’s vote as someone who can vote her out without hurting her feelings. I also think that Andrea will perceive Aubry as deserving if she makes the end, but she’ll reward Sarah’s gameplay if she can remove the rest of Andrea’s allies.
Andrea: Cirie > Aubry > Sarah > Brad
Andrea’s first two Jury performances went to people who played great strategic games whilst using overall social game as a tie-breaker (Cochran > Dawn). As such, I think we can expect something similar from her here, and even if Sarah scorned her, I think she could still nab her vote!
Andrea: Cirie >>> Sarah > Aubry >>> Culpepper
On her way to Ponderosa, Andrea congratulated Cirie for a good move. And Andrea is one of the few jury members who know what Sarah did, and didn’t orchestrate. So while I think Andrea will be objective, her reality is a wee bit different than some of the other current jury members. So:
Andrea: Cirie > Brad > Sarah > Aubry > Tai > Troy
Andrea's comments after the Michaela boot make clear she's not 100% on board with rewarding Sarah's deception. She'll happily vote for Cirie or Aubry instead, because she feels personally betrayed by Sarah, in a way that she doesn't with Cirie. Should it be an all-dude final three, who knows?
Andrea: Cirie > Aubry > Sarah > Brad
Juror #7: Michaela
Consensus: Cirie > Sarah > Aubry > Tai > Brad > Troyzan
There’s no doubt in my mind that Michaela votes Cirie first and Sarah second. After that, she’s left with four people that she had conflict with or just couldn’t make it work with, and it’s hard for me to figure out who she’d be most likely to leave in the cold. In the end, I think she’d go for her two original Mana tribemates. While they may not have had great working relationships, I don’t think she really holds it against either of them.
Michaela: Cirie > Sarah > Aubry > Troyzan
Without ever seeing Michaela on a Jury, it’s hard to know just how she’ll swing. Will we get a tempered, pragmatic Michaela, or a fiery, go for the throat and pick apart answers one? Jeez, I really, really hope it’s the latter, because aside from Cirie, I think Michaela could provide some witty, clever quips to tear down the finalists. I hope her Jury debut is as good as it can be (to be honest, it’s part of the reason I’m excited for the finale!).
Michaela: Cirie > Abstain from voting >>> Sarah > Aubry >>> Culpepper
I think it’s relatively obvious who Michaela will vote for first and foremost, but then it becomes a bit more interesting. She thinks Sarah made a terrible move voting her out. She doesn’t really like Brad. I’m not sure how much she cares for Troy. Maybe she thinks highly of Aubry? She likes Tai. Ah, I’m confused. But, don’t fear, I will guess:
Michaela: Cirie > Tai > Sarah > Brad > Aubry > Troy
From her exit interviews, Michaela clearly regarded Cirie as her one true alliance, at least after Zeke left. So in the unlikely event Cirie reaches the finals, Michaela is 100% a Cirie voter. After that, she worked closely with Sarah and Aubry, although it's unclear to whom she feels closer. Maybe she was with Sarah slightly more often? She likes Tai, but couldn't trust him. After that, she also says she likes Troyzan, but couldn't work with him. Being the rare Brad sixth-place voter is why Michaela is awesome.
Michaela: Cirie > Sarah > Aubry > Tai > Troyzan > Brad
So there you have it. Our predictions for the jury of Survivor: Game Changers.
But wait! There's more! Again!
Double Jeopardy: The not-yet jurors
Since we're still at the final six, and have three more jurors-in-waiting, we also have to project the preferences of everyone still playing. Yay! So... here we go. Alphabetically:
Potential juror #1: Aubry
Consensus: Cirie > Sarah > Brad > Tai > Troyzan
Overall, I think Aubry will want to reward the person she perceives has played the game the best. I wouldn’t be surprised if her vote is a reaction to the Kaoh Rong ending in that she completely rejects the reasons why Michele won and chooses to vote in the way that would have given her the win (not necessarily consciously). This means Cirie and Sarah. With no options for who played a good game left after that, I think she might reward her friend Tai over two people I don’t think she has any connection with.
Aubry: Cirie > Sarah > Tai
Aubry is a lover of the game, and one who plays with cold hard facts and logic. While this might get her into trouble when it boils down to more emotional and go-with-the-gut plays that could make her an even higher caliber player, I think it will allow her to sit back and assess who played the best overall game despite potentially getting axed at day thirty-eight. Although emotions may be high, I think Aubry will look for someone who seems a little like how she sees herself: sensitive and an underdog. Also, remember her praising Culpepper for his raw emotions all those weeks ago? Hm....
Aubry: Culpepper > Cirie > Sarah
Aubry is a potential juror who I think will look at the game objectively. Although, because she’s been in the dark on a few of the surprise votes we’ve seen, I think she’s a solid Brad vote, then it becomes a little more tricky. So:
Aubry: Brad > Cirie > Sarah > Tai > Troy
Aubry and Tai both acknowledged Sarah as the person running the game and making moves in the last episode, so with no prior jury voting record for either of them, there's a reasonable chance they (or at least Aubry) would choose her. After that, probably Cirie. Then maybe Tai, as a consolation for losing to Michele? And then authentic Brad. Sorry, Troyzan.
Aubry: Sarah > Cirie > Tai > Brad
Potential juror #2: Brad
Consensus: Sarah > Cirie > Troyzan > Aubry/Tai
I think that Brad wants to be seen as someone who would reward good gameplay. In that vein, he could be convinced to vote for either Cirie or Sarah, but I think he’d go with Cirie first (as I think the majority, including his allies Debbie and Troyzan, would likely lean that way).
Brad: Cirie > Sarah > Troyzan
If Culpepper gets booted, I think he’ll be out for blood against any who put him up there whilst being merely “parts of a we.” People like Tai and Aubry, who haven’t really made major waves themselves this season, would likely get the brunt of his frustration. I think, however, he may just respect a mastermind behind his foil more than sheer loyalty… just maybe.
Brad: Sarah > Cirie > Troy
I think there is a strong chance Brad and Sarah end up facing off at final tribal, so I’m not sure these next two matter. But, I do think it’s a difficult guess with Brad. Will he vote for loyalty (Troy?) or will he vote the best remaining player? I’m honestly not sure. So:
Brad: Cirie > Sarah > Troy > Aubry > Tai
As with Sarah, if Brad somehow misses the finals, it will be the biggest edit-reading upset since Ken McNickle not winning Millennials vs. Gen X. But if he had to vote for someone? Probably Sarah? Then maybe Tai or Troyzan. He doesn't seem to have much respect for Cirie or Aubry.
Brad: Sarah > Troyzan > Tai
Potential juror #3: Cirie
Consensus: Sarah > Aubry/Brad > Troyzan > Tai
I expect Cirie would reward a good game. If Sarah takes Cirie out before the end, Cirie would know that’s what she needed to do. I think she’d also be likely to give the money to Aubry over Brad, but she doesn’t seem to have much of a reason to give it to the others.
Cirie: Sarah > Aubry > Brad
Let’s cut to the chase with Cirie. She’s a major name playing for her fourth time. She knows what she’s doing and she’s going to reward like the old schoolers of her time: who’s the biggest overall threat left standing? I think that could likely be the person who’s been on the right side of the numbers every Tribal they’ve attened. Maybe she’ll be biased based on personal relationships or fallout from blindsides, but everyone has a little bias in them. Cirie just has less than the norm.
Cirie: Sarah >> Culpepper >>> Aubry
I think Cirie will be very objective in who she votes for. And because of that, she’ll reward good play from Brad and Officer Sarah … not much else. So while I sure hope Cirie is not a juror, here’s what I think:
Cirie: Sarah > Brad > Aubry > Troy > Tai
Let's be perfectly honest: Cirie is not making the finals. Again. So we have to ask ourselves how she would vote. Historically, she's respected strategists and leaders (Aras, Parvati). She'll respect Sarah's moves. Would she value her alliance with Aubry over Brad's being genuine 20 days earlier? Yeah, probably. After that, it's a toss-up.
Cirie: Sarah > Aubry > Brad
Potential juror #4: Sarah
Consensus: Cirie > Brad > Aubry > Tai > Troyzan
I don’t really get the sense that Sarah has much of a relationship or respect for Aubry. I do think she’d vote for Cirie, but after that I expect her loyalties would lie with people from the other side. Tai might get her vote over Aubry and Troyzan.
Sarah: Cirie > Brad > Tai
If Sarah goes home in the finale, I have a hard time believing it’s due to something other than a blindside. Do I think Sarah will hold a grudge against those who voted for her, even against those who were against her the whole game? Why yes. Yes, I do. As such, her order is a little murky to me, but I don’t think there’s any way she’d give her vote to Troy or Tai.
Sarah: Cirie >>> Culpepper >>> Aubry
This is another person I’m not sure about. But I do think Sarah will vote objectively. She voted for Tony even though he screwed her over. She did have more time to digest that one on the jury and, of course, it was a choice between Tony and Woo. But I do think she’ll vote for who she thinks legitimately deserves to win. So:
Sarah: Cirie > Brad > Tai > Aubry > Troyzan
I find it hard to believe there's any way Sarah doesn't make it to the final three, considering nobody has bothered to vote against her yet, and she has guaranteed immunity at Final 6. She made a big play against Cirie this episode, but that's gotta be because she sees her as her biggest threat. After that, more strategy?
Sarah: Cirie > Aubry > Brad > Tai
Potential juror #5: Tai
Consensus: Aubry > Sarah > Brad > Cirie > Troyzan
Ultimately I believe Tai would reward the people who he felt closest to and had the most respect for. I think this would be Aubry first, and it was hard for me to pick the toss up between Cirie, Sarah, and Brad. While I think he would be conflicted in all three counts, I think he would ultimately be led by the majority and follow, as he usually does. Therefore I’ve picked that he’d go Cirie > Sarah since that’s the way I believe most would lean.
Tai: Aubry > Cirie > Sarah
Sweet, sweet Tai. Again, without seeing him on the Jury before, it’s a little tougher to say how he’ll vote. However, knowing Tai and seeing him for an entire season two out of the last three seasons makes me think he’ll go with a little emotion. If Culpepper and Troy are mean to him, they lose his vote, historic loyalty be damned. He does seem to have a connection with Aubry, however. So…
Tai: Aubry >> Cirie > Culpepper? > Sarah?
If you can get inside of Tai’s head, more power to you. I can honestly say I have no idea where Tai would go with his vote. I’m leaning toward Sarah only because we know he thinks of her as a threat. He also likes Brad. Other than that, I’m at a loss. But, I must do this:
Tai: Sarah > Brad > Aubry > Cirie > Troy
Tai cited Sarah as the person controlling the action this week. His closest connection is probably to Aubry. After that, maybe Brad, depending on how Tai leaves the game. (If it's via his own idol in Brad's hands, definitely not.) Maybe Cirie next? Hard to say, since Tai gets along with almost everyone.
Tai: Sarah > Aubry > Brad > Cirie
Potential juror #6: Troyzan
Consensus: Brad > Sarah > Cirie > Tai > Aubry
We’ve heard so little from Troy that it’s impossible to know where his head is at. However, he is a fan of the game and I think he’d reward his buddies but also reward decent play. My guess is Brad would get his vote first, and after that he’d reward whoever he felt played the best game. But I could see him being influenced by history in picking Cirie.
Troyzan: Brad > Cirie > Sarah
Sometimes it hard to remember he’s been on this season. Because of that fact, it’s super hard to pick just what will dictate his voting. I’m sure he won’t do anything too strange and pick Tai or Aubry above the rest, and his bond with Brad seems too strong to ignore…but after that?
Troyzan: Culpepper >>> Cirie >= Sarah
I think this might be the easiest one yet. We know exactly who Troy would vote for first and I don’t think he’s really had a dispute with anyone left, so maybe he’ll be objective? The guess:
Troyzan: Brad > Sarah > Cirie > Tai > Aubry
Even though Troyzan isn't much of a fan favorite, it's still pretty ridiculous that Survivor brings him to play the game, he starves himself for 35+ days, and then they can't be bothered to include him in the finished product. As such, who can possibly know how he would vote? Mostly for Brad, I guess.
Troyzan: Brad > Sarah > Tai > Cirie
Before we go, a few final words:
So, where did I end up? It looks fairly clear cut to me – in fact, I think I might have landslide votes across the board. Cirie > Sarah > Aubry > Brad, and I still don’t think it will be close. Based on my guesses, it looks like Cirie would win 8-2 over Sarah, Sarah would win 8-2 or 9-1 over Brad and Aubry, and Aubry would win about 6-4 over Brad (which would be an interesting finish, if the edit had given us any reason to believe Aubry could win – instead, I think it’s clear Aubry won’t make the end unless it’s against Cirie or Sarah. A Cirie vs Sarah final tribal is probably the only chance of having people genuinely exchanging ideas on the jury about who deserves it more, so let’s all root for that (seemingly unlikely) outcome!
To be completely honest, I seem to have done very badly each time we’ve played this whole Jury Jeopardy game, but, you know, just like Cirie, I’m going to try and try again. Maybe I’ll win one of these times?
Probably not. Wish me luck. Or wish everyone else bad luck. Different strategy, same result, right?
So that's it. Disagree with our picks? Think we're close, but no cigar? Leave a comment below, or argue with us on twitter: @golden8284 (Ben), @DanOtsuki (Dan, obviously), @PatFerrucci (Pat, also obviously) and @truedorktimes (Jeff). And don't forget to check out our worthy competitors (below), one or all of whom may have predictions more to your liking.
Oh yeah... almost forgot... my belated answer to the tiebreaker question of "What will the jury vote total be?" Here, I'm putting my faith in hashtags: #WWMD = receive one vote as the second-place finisher. So...
Vote total = 9-1-0.
Other Game Changers Jury jeopardy entries
Other True Dork Times Game Changers pre-finale recaps