Well, in theory... Pat Ferrucci's S33 recaps

Ep.13: Who holds the most finale power?


Hello fellow Survivor fans. Can you believe we’ve reached the end of this season? And, more amazingly, can you believe after all the seemingly odd play, we reached the end of what I consider a top-10 season overall?


It’s so weird to think about since, for me at least, when I rank seasons of this show, the best ones are always filled with great players and great play. Here, I’m not sure if we have any great players and I know we haven’t seen much great play. But this season is, for lack of a more inventive phrase, a hell of an entertaining ride.


For pure entertainment, I’m not sure if we’ve seen a better season. I mean, don’t get me wrong, a season like Cagayan featured a couple great players, great play and a ton of entertainment, making it much better than this season. But on a week-to-week basis, did any season pack more consistent entertainment than Millennials vs. Gen X? I’m asking honestly.


In the comments, can anyone name a more thoroughly consistent season for entertainment?


With that said, as promised earlier this season, for this finale preview, I’m doing away with the theory and just giving a power ranking. Here’s the way I see each contestant remaining, and their chance for victory. So let’s do this, ranked from least likely to most likely to win. Just remember, though, things can change during the finale. I mean, Hannah might win every remaining immunity challenge and subsequently lead the ouster of Adam, then Jay, then David. Stranger things have happened. Or not.   





  • 1. Hannah — Do I think Hannah played worse than everyone else remaining in the final six? No, I don’t. But no matter how I construct a final three in my mind, I can’t see Hannah taking home the million. Even against Bret and Ken, I still think one of the Gen Xers, probably Ken, wins out. And, of course, the chances of that final three are about the same as the chances of me winning the title of sole survivor … this season. It just ain’t happening. So I feel bad, but I’m putting Hannah in the lowest spot. Well, actually, let me just say, she kind of deserves it since she pushed for Sunday’s ouster at the expense of an actual player. That was a really bad play, unless you want third place and no votes at final tribal.


  • 2. Bret — You can probably tell from the Hannah section, I don’t think Bret can win this game either. I do, however, think in some weird Ken-Bret-Hannah final three, Bret would get more votes than Hannah. Maybe I’m wrong, but the point is still the same: Regardless of whether you think Hannah or Bret would get more votes against Ken, you probably agree neither can win, right? Besides the editing that made it clear that Bret did not actually steer strategy at all, I just can’t understand whose votes Bret would earn. To me, of these final six, it’s Bret who actually played the worst game. He has no Big Moves™ to point to and no real strong allies on the jury, except Chris and Sunday. Not much else to say here.


  • 3. Ken — Oh, Ken, Ken, Ken … how I wish you played a better game than you did. While at times you certainly seemed a wee bit underrated (like when you’d point out subtle strategy happening), at other times you were simply awful, like with Will. I do think there are enough Gen Xers on the jury, and millennials who just didn’t think much of Hannah, that Ken would win the mythical Ken-Bret-Hannah final three, but I don’t see how he beats any of the three other folks remaining in the game. That’s why he’s in this spot. Not much else to say about Ken. Maybe I’ll run into him some day in Colorado? There’s probably a better shot at that than him winning.


  • 4. Adam — I had a tough time deciding between these next three, but, in the end, I think Adam is clearly No. 3. Why? Well, while I think, depending on how the finale goes, he could beat just about anyone, but as it stands now, a lot people weren’t taking his game too seriously. He flipped too much for some. He pissed some others off. He played too hard and too fast for others. And, ultimately, Hannah convinced him and others not to ditch David when he had the chance. So while I definitely think Adam can win this game, he loses to both Jay and David in the final as of now.


  • 5. Jay — How did I decide between Jay and David here? Good question. It was a super tough call. Basically, in my mind, the most likely final three is Jay, David and Hannah. If I had to predict how the final goes down – and I know I’m going to be super wrong – I think Adam goes home first on Wednesday. Then I think Jay wins immunity and the three of Ken, Hannah and David decide to take out Bret. After that, at final immunity, I think Jay wins again. That forces David and Hannah to boot Ken. Or at least Jay and Hannah to write Ken’s name down. So with this final three, I think Jay gets the votes of Michelle, Taylor, Will, and Bret. I think Hannah gets zero votes. And I think David takes home the votes from Chris, Zeke, Jessica, Sunday, Adam and Ken. That would mean David wins 6-4. And, I have to say, I’m not confident in that Sunday vote, but this is what I think right now. I’m also not confident in the Bret vote, so I split the difference. Jay’s played a hell of a game. I think he’s played the best game of the season, but I just can’t convince myself he beats David. Nope.


  • 6. David — Basically, what we have with David is a guy who’s done well in immunities, is thought of as a strategic beast and is somewhat clearly who the editing favors (tight with Adam). For all those reasons and obviously because of the jury makeup, I think David beats anyone remaining. And if he’s not against Jay, it might be a blowout. If he does sit at finals with what I bet is his preferred duo of Hannah and Ken, he wins unanimously. Therefore, he sits here, at the top of my power rankings.


That’s it for this week. I’ll be back next week to wrap up the season. In the meantime, let’s talk about this season’s entertainment factor in the comments. And I hope you all enjoy the finale.


Pat Ferrucci Survivor 31 recapsPat Ferrucci started watching Survivor when episode two of Borneo first aired. He's seen every episode since. Besides recapping here, he'll be live-tweeting this season from the Mountain Time Zone. Why? Because nobody cares about the Mountain Time Zone except when they want to ski. Follow him @patferrucci for Survivor stuff and tweets about anything and everything that enters his feeble mind.