X 13a Final four IC: Lex wins, Tom is booted, 2-2, due to prior votes.  Just ignore that tally part.
The Lex win here is based on the fact that the recap episode picture of Lex's torch with the immunity necklace (Fig. 1) has still not aired.  Two slightly different pictures, both shot at the same time, have been shown.  One was in ep11 (Fig. 2), right after Tom won the IC (?), the second was a nearly identical one from the start of ep12 (when Tom still had immunity?!?).  Since the second immunity challenge is usually a game of "Fallen Comrades," and the necklace is obsolete at that point, we think this means Lex will get the necklace again in this first IC.

Boot: Tom.  We don't buy Lex wanting to cut Tom's throat, especially if Lex is immune - why bother?  Lex made a pact on his sons that he wouldn't vote against Tom, and while Tom has betrayed the spirit of the agreement, neither he nor Lex has betrayed the letter of it.  And we don't see Lex doing so.  Ethan is the swing vote here, he could go with either MamaKim, and vote against Tom, or stick with the guys and boot MamaKim.  We now suspect the former.  Why?  First, it makes strategic sense for Ethan to do so, since his chances in the F2 are much better against either MamaKim or Lex than against Tom.  Second, Tom will not know who cast the second vote - Lex or Ethan, and will probably suspect Lex. Third, a neighbor of Tom's posted way back at the end of August that Tom finishes fourth, on Surviiivor.com's message board.  Both KimP and Teresa indicated there was a surprise still to come, and this is where it most likely occurs. Teresa specifically said it didn't surprise her, since she'd lived with the four Borans for so long and saw how they interacted, but it will surprise us, because of Mark Burnett's editing.  That would be the mini-alliance of MamaKim and Ethan.

X 13b Final three IC: LEX wins again, and chooses MamaKim for the final two.
Depending on whether MB follows the S1 or the S2 model, this could either be an endurance challenge, or Fallen Comrades.  Most likely, it's the latter, to give MamaKim a fair shot. If so, this could go any way.  Still, if Lex wins, he's in, and if MamaKim wins, she should pick Lex (or could he be the new Keith?).  If Lex is smart, he could turn an IC win into a 7-0 victory over MamaKim.  Lex has been chatting with every person, even Clarence, before booting them. He has knowledge, and he's well fed, so he still has brain cells.  So we think a Lex win is the most likely outcome.

Evidence for: (1) The rumor that Lex's son told people that his dad won the show - at least indicates Lex's son thinks he made the final two. None too compelling, we admit.

Jury vote: LEX versus MamaKim
Again, Lex has all those IC wins, as well as strategy going for him here.  And what has MamaKim done, exactly?  We don't think the jury will be able to remember anything, either.

Kelly: Here, MamaKim's betrayal of her will come back to bite MamaKim: LEX
Brandon: LEX
Frank: He even voted against MamaKim once, and will take a guy over a woman. LEX.
KimP: Might go either way here. MamaKim could have saved her, but didn't. But she's still not Lex: KIM
Teresa: Simply because she gushed about him on the Early Show, and because MamaKim failed her twice: LEX
Ethan: Should give the nod to his strongest competitor, but will instead go with: KIM
Tom: Like Frank, will take the man over the woman: LEX

That's LEX winning in a landslide, 5-2.  Nice work Lex, you earned it.
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On the other hand, if Ethan wins, he will almost assuredly opt for MamaKim.  At most, that will cost him Lex's, and maybe Brandon's vote. If so, that would shake down as an Ethan landslide

But screw it - we have nothing to go on, and we're usually wrong. We'll go with what we want to happen: Lex winning. Even though the rest of the world wants Ethan.  On to S4...