TDT Survivometer land o' spoils

Episode 11: "The Big Adventure" (Air date: December 27, 2001; filmed August 10-12, 2001)
Our picks: X RC - Tom (you can't have a big, airplane-flying, balloon-riding adventure without Big Tom. The adventure is staying aloft). We were pretty damn close here, and did pick Lex to join him...
X IC - Lex. Still a-waiting for that torch pic. Even with the hike to TC pic, we couldn't tell whether it was Tom or Lex...
X Boot - Tom, and MamaKim defects to Teresa and KimP. Alternatively, she sticks with Boran, and Teresa is out. Slight edge to Tom. Ugh. We can't believe we fell for that.

Episode 11: "The Big Adventure" All we have to go on is what the CBS site gives us this time. View the web preview here.
What CBS says	What we think it means	What actually happened
(1) One person wins a day and night away at a magnificent safari and gets to invite another to join. Together, thanks to a little bourbon, they have an incredibly memorable time.	(1) Again, Tom has to be involved in some way here. It's hard to believe he wins something, but look at the competition. As Cranky Andy points out, Big Tom's favorite drink closely resembles bourbon, making him the likely winner.	(1) Well, what we said here was correct. But Tom was the tagalong, and Lex won, instead of our backwards pick.
(2) The tribe members get to know each other a little better through their respective families, who participate in a challenge.	(2) The real question here is: Is this the RC, or the IC? Tom was rumored to have contacted home, but this sounds more like taped stories from home, and the contestants are quizzed on the details. It would be odd, even cruel, for this not to include an actual familial contact for the winner. But at an IC? We already know about the safari reward, but the clue says memorable, so perhaps this is indeed the RC, since it involves memory.	(2) Okay, we got that this was the RC. Big whoop.
(3) One tribe member attempts to form an alliance along gender lines. Only the votes will reveal whether this plan has worked. Will it?	(3) The fact that CBS brings this up on both their web site and the after-show previews leads us to believe that this does not actually happen. But if Lex wins immunity, this could be MamaKim's only chance at the final three. If she can vote off Lex, she, Tom and Ethan are in. But if Lex is immune, she has to take this chance while she can. Tom must be the target, due to his 3 prior votes.	(3) Apart from Clarence being booted, nothing CBS has ever hinted at in questions has ever turned out to be correct. We thought this was number two. And it was, although not in the sense of being correct.

Reward Challenge
Apparently also recycled from Survivor 2 (EPMB is an eco-friendly kinda guy). Survivors watch videos from home, and the winner gets to fly off in a plane, then take a balloon ride (most likely with another survivor; strategically, Lex is the obvious choice). Tom supposedly got to contact home in some way, so perhaps he wins this one - maybe the winner actually gets to make a phone call? Most likely the challenge involves remembering details from everyone's videos, and Tom has a decent memory, especially for people ("an elephant never fergits"). The reward includes bourbon, one of his favored beverages (more drinking footage = good CBS ratings). Plus, he puts the "Big" in "Big Adventure." The RC plus reward takes up two days.

Immunity Challenge
Waiting for previews, but chances are, Lex wins again. He needs to stick around anyway. And while they could have taken the pic with the necklace on his torch before the IC, we're starting to think that shot was included in the preview of the "next 18 days" as foreshadowing, because he just keeps winning immunity.

Boot
If Lex does win immunity, it's either Tom or Teresa. This requires MamaKim's decision - to go for an all-female alliance, or stick with Boran. Ethan has done nothing to merit her treason, so it seems a little odd that she would ally with Teresa and KimP. But we're starting to think that this has been in effect since Episode 9 or earlier. KimP's water-cooler talk of Brandon "setting me up" could really have been because he was supposed to be voting with them. MamaKim has been shown in two episodes explicitly saying people should not go against an existing alliance, at this point in the game. Well, we think that point is now. We think CBS registered the three remaining women's nickname domain names because they had an alliance, but MB has edited this part out, to build up the misdirection. Anyway, in a 3-3 tie, both Lex and Tom would lose in a men-vs.-women vote. Even if Lex does not win immunity, he's the smart choice to keep, just because everybody loves Tom, and you don't want to face the jury against him. Silas apparently knows Tom, so he must have passed through the base camp at some point. Never mind.

Either that, or the Pagonging of Samburu continues, and KimP or Teresa is tossed out of the boma for the hyenas to munch on. Since CBS has not seen fit to provide more previews, this is all we have to go on.