The
Official True Dork Times
Survivor Boot Logic
The Ultimate Survivor will be: TINA
BOOT LOGIC
All scenarios for the final IC result in Keith going to the Final Two. Well, that's logic for ya. According to "Dark Rivers," Keith is mysteriously evicted from the final 3. There are two scenarios for this to happen: one is Colby wins IC, and since "my game with Keith is done," boots him. This does not fit with his behavior in the past two episodes, however, where he elected to keep Keith, despite this statement. Tina winning IC is less likely, but could happen. Choosing Colby would be seen as an attempt to reward Colby for his previous challenge wins, would pay Keith back for giving him immunity at the merge, and would satisfy the still-unfulfilled CBS preview that claimed "The one they trust the most could become the ultimate betrayer."
Rumor also has it that Tina wins it all. In a Tina-Colby matchup, this is quite possible. Check out the votes:
Guaranteed Tina votes:
Elisabeth, Rodger.
Leaning Tina: Alicia, Nick, voting along tribal lines. If so, this is enough
for victory. Nick may in fact lean towards Colby, though, since they're now
friends.
Guaranteed Colby votes: Amber.
Toss-ups: (1) Jerri - could finally be the occasion for her long-rumored "Black
Widow" role, denouncing Colby for his betrayal, or Tina for hers.
(2) Keith: Will probably vote against whoever boots him, although he's more
likely to vote against Colby than Tina.
So it's Tina, somewhere from 4-3 to 6-1.
Bootee: Keith. We had been on the fence between Colby and Elisabeth, but since the Boston Herald says it's Keith, it probably is. This does fit MB's pattern of broadcasting someone's boot one week (the previews of the Keith-Colby catfight in Ep.12), only to have that person actually leave the next week. We still think Colby would be a better choice, but we don't control Bessy's voting.
RC: Tina. The CBS website preview shows extensive footage from this challenge. This is a complicated, physical challenge, made up of pieces of previous challenges. It starts with the survivors shackled, and navigating a blindfolded rope maze. They then solve a puzzle, giving them a key to unlock the shackles. Then they carry a can of water across a balance beam, towards another teeter-totter structure identical to the one Colby lit up in Ep.10. Beyond the teeter-totter is a basket of wood, which is used to build a fire on the other side of the teeter-totter. The fire burns through a retaining string, flipping up the teeter-totter to light a game-ending fireworks display. Tina is shown farthest along in the challenge, carrying wood. Keith has been rumored to win this, but the only pictures of him show him standing near the rope maze, looking glum. We'll go with Tina, even though Colby is a master of physical challenges.
IC: Elisabeth. The only way the Keith boot makes sense is if Elisabeth (next logical bootee) gets immunity. This makes it "anyone's game," and sets up a 2-2 tie, with Keith and Tina rightly voting Colby, and Elisabeth and Colby voting Keith. Since Keith now has more prior votes, he's gone. It's possible This challenge (Colby wearing red bandana, Lis in striped shirt) appears to be more mental, probably the long-awaited "Paired Off" concentration game. Colby's memory seemed pretty good in Ep.12, so he is also a threat to win this one. But the perplexed look on Elisabeth's face in the previews suggests she might take it.
The only remaining question this week surrounds the identity of the "surprise guest". Last week's TV preview clearly had a snippet of a female voice following Tina's "Welcome to Barramundi!" shout. Could be Elisabeth, but it sounds more like a response. This suggests it's not Rudy Boesch, Richard Hatch, Mike Skupin, Crocodile Dundee, or Bryant Gumbel (among other rumored guests). Maralyn "Mad Dog" Hershey is a possibility, but we'll go with Rosie O'Donnell, assuming a Tina RC win. Rosie was not taping her show in November, so she was available. This would explain Keith's utter indifference. Another possibility is that Colby wins RC yet again, and it's his mom (he does look awfully happy for it to be Rosie, but then not happy enough for it to be his beloved Mama - shouldn't he be the first to greet her? It's not as if helicopters are whisper-quiet). We'll go with Rosie.
Bootee: Rodger. This will not come without a few tears. Most from Mark Burnett himself, as he sees his ratings sag with only boring, unlikeable people left. Basically, this is another case of misleading previews. The TV preview shown after Episode 11 strongly suggested a Colby-Keith rift would lead to the ouster of one or the other. The CBS web site also explicitly hints that this is the case. But Keith and Tina, no matter how much they dislike Colby, need his reliable vote to get to the Final Two. A Final Four of K/T and the two Kuchas would be death for Keith, since his four votes against would kill him in a tie-breaker vote against either Rodger or Elisabeth. So one of the Kuchas has to go. Rodger is a good choice, since he is the biggest threat as a Final Two opponent. To force the issue, we also think Lis wins immunity.
RC: Tina. Several long-standing rumors claim that Tina got to call home from the Outback. The previews clearly show a satellite dish, and Cingular is the only major sponsor not to have had a gigantic Product Placement Shot. The challenge itself is an online trivia contest, under the canopy shown in the previews, in which each Survivor's loved one must answer "survival trivia." Whoever gets the most correct answers gets a 30-minute online chat. Elisabeth, Colby and Rodger are all shown crying in the previews, as they sit under the canopy. We're guessing that they don't win (and that this is foreshadowing that they don't make the final two, as with Jerri and Amber's crying shots in the previews). So we'll go with Tina here. It's not a call home, but close.
IC: Elisabeth. No, we don't think the ephemeral, alleged Jeff Probst statement, "Lis kicks butt," refers to a string of IC wins (it's a little late for that, anyway). But Lis winning immunity would neatly seal Rodger's fate as the bootee. This is the "shackles and chains" challenge shown in the previews. Our guess is that it involves running around in the dark, at various shed-like stations, looking for keys to unlock your shackles. Rodger, Keith, Colby and Tina are all pictured participating in this event (Colby and Tina could each be construed to be "leading" in their shots). The one missing is Elisabeth, who, by process of elimination, we annoint as the winner.
Bootee: Amber. Hmm. We were strongly leaning towards Colby, but both the Boston Herald and Ellipsiiis say it's Amber. Since they have better insider info than we do, we're inclined to agree. The only thing suggesting this is the shot of Amber hugging Colby, with Amber close to tears. Amber is a threat to Ogakor, in the sense that she could easily hop over to join Lis and Rodger, and pick off Colby, Keith, and then Tina. Maybe they have simply grown tired of her red headband. Who knows?
RC: Colby. The CBS previews suggest the RC winner stays behind while the others go to camp to enjoy the flood; and asks if this will "affect this person's standing" with the tribe (apparently not). ClickTV's synopsis says the flood hits the camp while the RC is happening. We see Lis saying "Oh my God!" as she walks behind a shirtless Rodger, presumably returning from RC. So we can probably rule out those two. The next two people shown (after a jump cut) are Tina and Keith. Probably not them, unless it's fancy editing. That leaves Amber and Colby. The Early Show previews show the RC as the same rope-following course that Gervase won in S1. Since this is a physical challenge, Colby is the best bet to win. Plus, Colby is shown in a blue T-shirt and cowboy hat arriving at the challenge, and wearing the same clothes while hugging Amber the next morning. Thus, Colby gets to spend a night riding horses and eating.
IC: Colby. Since CBS kindly neglected to show the IC in their previews this week, this is sheer guesswork. Keith and Tina have to be smart enough to see that Colby is going to keep winning ICs until he's in the Final Two, so his not being booted this week suggests he gets immunity yet again.
This should be an interesting episode, which should blow a lot of putative "spoilers" out of the water.
Bootee: Nick. There's still a 4-3 Ogakor advantage, and despite Amber's friendship with the departed Ms. Manthey, she'll still stick with her former tribemates. By winning immunity, Nick made himself a target. He's already sick, and now hungry. He won't win immunity again. This could explain why we see him comforting Elisabeth in the CBS previews - she's crying because he knows he's toast. Also picked by the Boston Herald, and just about everyone else on the planet this week.
RC: Everyone/Amber. The Reward Challenge is an auction for food this week. It's unclear how someone can "win" this, but we suspect almost everyone eats, and eats a lot, getting sick (all but two). This fits CBS's claim that "The Reward Challenge is enjoyed by all, but not without its natural consequences for all but two." Amber does look happy in the Early Show previews, maybe she gets the top bid (and shares her wealth, but not without mulitple "Oh my God"s). So, if pressured to pick one winner, we'll go with Amber.
IC: Elisabeth. CBS previews show a set of seven oil rig-like structures, with Colby, Lis, Keith and Amber running to and from them, carrying wood. Apparently involves building a fire, perhaps to set the entire rig on fire (similar to a challenge in S1). The last shots of the CBS preview show Elisabeth running apparently across the line of towers, perhaps towards where the immunity necklace is hanging (visible in some shots to the left of Colby's tower). She's smiling, leading us to believe she wins.
One more question remains: What is the sacrifice they make for more rice? There's not much to go on here, apart from shots of the deal going down while Rodger, Nick, Keith and Colby stand in the water (other shots show just Nick and Rodger). There are many, many theories floating around. The most likely in our view is that each survivor has the option of giving up immunity for this voting cycle, in exchange for bags of rice. Since Rodger and Nick do not appear to be participating in the IC (at least from the carefully-selected camera shots available), maybe they take this offer. Tina is also unseen, which could make three noble victims. In Nick's case, this gets him the boot.
Yes, we know this is a tenuous call, because logic really dictates it should be Nick this week. Why would anyone want to vote off the one person you're guaranteed to win against in the Final Two? But we can make up a coupla scenarios to explain it, so at least we're thinking.
The CBS site suggests Jerri raises a stink about wanting to be Colby's partner in the obstacle course Reward Challenege. And for good reason: Colby's going to win it. It looks like either Jerri or Amber gets to be Colby's partner, and helicopter away for a day of snorkelling at the Great Barrier Reef. It's tough to tell who it is, but we think it's Jerri.
This creates one of two
scenarios:
(1) Jerri gets left behind when Colby and Amber jet off, 'cuz "it shoulda been
me, not that Amber." The US preview shows many pics of Jerri looking grumpy,
and this could be her sitting around the camp, generally making herself unwelcome.
Also, with the rising river water, the remaining survivors may note that their
campsite is in danger of flooding, thanks to Jerri's insistence on building
it in a (formerly) dry creek bed (although we think this likely occurs next
episode). Either way, this would not endear her to her fellow survivors.
(2) Jerri and Colby go off to have fun in the sun, leaving everyone else to sit around and complain about her. The US CBS preview has a shot of Amber collecting wood - this would be a good opportunity to unite against Ms. Pushy Manthey, who forced her way onto the winning RC team, despite everyone's objections. There is no love for Jerri in Barramundi amongst Kucha, Keith and Tina.
Either way, the Australian preview shows Keith and Colby chatting in a tent, with the immunity idol suggestively draped behind Colby (Pick: we think Colby wins the IC, too). They are discussing "this is for a lot of money". Keith also says "Kucha is in a good position tonight, because we're voting on of our Ogakor members out." The evidence, we think, combines to all point to Jerri, no matter how much obfuscting, misleading, and outright lying towards that conclusion MB and CBS have done in the past.
Or, they could all decide to ditch Amber while she's out collecting wood. Who knows? (shrug).
Excuse time for Week 7: (1) So the Debb spoiler turned out to be accurate. We'll be damned. (2) Okay, so we significantly overestimated Ogakor's intelligence: You retards knew it would be a tie vote, why would any of the Ogakors ever have voted against the only guy on their team (Colby) who was getting them through the immunity challenges? Have you not two neurons to rub together between the five of you?
Kucha is doomed. As in Survivor 1, the next four weeks will be a boring, tedious parade of Kuchas getting voted off like clockwork. Alicia would be the most likely target, since she's the most likely to win immunity. She's our grudging pick. We were picking Rodger, because a Kentucky spoiler says he has planned a big party for this Wednesday (when the show airs). This fits with the final four spoiler, as well. Perhaps he breaks his collarbone, instead (heh heh).
Note: there has been another recent "spoiler," which makes little sense, apart from driving up CBS's ratings during the upcoming doldrum weeks. It seems completely implausible. But it predicts either Tina or Alicia leaving this week. We don't believe a word of it. Most likely planted by Mark Burnett himself, just like the Gervase "x".
This looks pretty clear-cut. Kucha will not vote against each other, while Keith and Jerri clearly would, if not other Ogakors. One or the other will rally the Kuchas to vote against their foe, and the Kuchas will happily agree to this. Immunity is the only way out, and the chances of that seem remote for Keith. We rank it about 50-50 for each of them.
The chances of another deadlocked tie vote at Tribal Council seem slim, but if there is one (presumably a split between one Kucha member and one Ogakor member), this will work against Keith, as well, who picked up votes in his previous face-off against Mitchell.
There are three important questions here:
(1)
Who gets injured in Kucha?
(2) Which tribe wins immunity?
(3) If Ogakor loses again, which way will Colby vote?
Question
1: Who gets injured in Kucha?
We suspect this is a massive red herring. If it's an accident,
whoever it is will probably return once tended to. Nonetheless, the most likely
victims are, in order of likelihood:
(1) Michael
- spends too much time running around with knives not to injure himself eventually.
(2) Jeff - a return of the mysterious illness?
(3) Rodger - he appeared near death during the obstacle
course. It shouldn't take much to push him over the edge.
Again, whoever this is, it will not play an outcome in
the voting. Although, if it's Michael, and Kucha loses immunity, they
could use this as an excuse to get rid of him, since he will be useless once
incapacitated.
Question
2: Which tribe wins immunity?
As above, this may not be as important as it seems. Ogakor
is split down the middle, and even with a 5-5 merger, either Keith or Jerri
will successfully lobby the Kuchas to vote against his/her foe. This will initiate
a one-by-one picking off of the former Ogakors, until all that are left are
Kuchas. We suspect that Kucha will win anyway, though, using the injury
as added incentive to win.
Question
3: If Ogakor loses again, which way will Colby vote?
This really boils down to: how smart is Colby, really?
Colby appears to be leaning against his pseudo-alliance with Jerri and Amber.
But if he's smart, he would realize that Keith is the biggest post-merger threat,
since he cooks. The Kuchas will be looking for Ogakors to pick off, and are
likely to keep Keith around longer, since he provides a service. And Keith
will turn the Kuchas against Jerri and Amber, further depleting Ogakor's voting
power. For Ogakor to stay strong, Keith has to go. Then again, Colby may be
dumb, and vote for Jerri, who would be the first to go post-merger, anyway.