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TDT Survivor 12: Panama - Exile Island Spoilers
Filmed: Oct. 31 - Nov. 2, 2005
Airdate: February 2, 2006
Episode at-a-glance: RC | Exile | IC | Boot | Vidcaps
Spoilers - Click to jump to: Pre-show; Episode 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
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Vidcaps: Click to view
boats at exile island
Early Show preview (2/2)
courtney confessional
CBS Ep1 web promo #2 (1/27)
5-on-5 glass bottom boats?TVGuide Channel post-Ep1 challenges (1/22)
young girls are in big trouble
CBS 20-sec TV ad (1/26)
Gallery of all Pre-show and Episode 1 vidcaps: Click here


Reward challenge: Running on Exile Island - Bayoneta loses
In the CBS site's "Meet the Cast" video clip (vidcaps here; video here - Real media), there is a scene in which Jeff Probst yells "Go!" and a representative of each tribe races off into the woods. Visible are Ruth Marie (older women), Terry (older men), and Danielle (younger women). Presumably, since he's shown stretching, Austin is there too.

On the sidelines, we can see Bobby and Aras on the green mat, and all people shown are dressed exactly as in the official cast photo (see caps at right). Because of this, it looks to us like the castaways show up, get their buffs, and immediately compete in the Reward Challenge. The various single-tribe huddles shown in this area (apart from the photo ops) may be pre-challenge discussions of who runs which leg.

Update: As pointed out by VolcanicGlass at Blows, the 2/2 Early Show preview reveals that not only is the RC run immediately after arrival, but it takes place on Exile Island itself. As VG notes, four challenge stations are visible just behind the skull. Still not clear what's involved, apart from running the length of the island to get to the stations. But that's a start.

Who wins? Well, as you'll see below, since we're picking Misty as the first exile, we'd say Bayoneta, the younger women's tribe, would be heavily favored to lose. The winner isn't really all that relevant with four tribes.
Reward Challenge vidcaps - Click thumbnail to view larger image
four boats at exile island cast arrival probst talks
exile island, RC starts here Ep1 rc start exile island, with RC stations
Exile: Misty
Since the RC appears to take place immediately after arrival, on Exile Island, and the person exiled is banished from the RC-losing tribe, we'd guess they wouldn't be present to help set up camp. Assuming then that the bulk of the camp shots are from before the IC, we can rule out a few people as potential Ep1 Exilees (yeah, that's a lot of assumptions, but we have to start somewhere):

Older women: All are accounted for in camp, in clothes not worn in the RC. Older women don't lose the RC. older women ruth marie chops
Older men: Bruce, Shane and Terry are shown on a rocky beach. Bruce and Dan are each shown working on a raised shelter. Seems like everyone is at camp at some point. shane, terry dan chops
Younger women: Sally, Danielle and Courtney are all shown gathering shelter material together. Also shown bathing together. No sign of Misty, though. Misty = possible exile. young women young women
Younger men: All accounted for in camp. Bobby, Aras and Austin playing baseball; Nick shown in camp with Aras, Bobby and Austin (separately). nick nick

From this, the only real candidate for exile looks like Misty, who not only is not shown in camp with her tribe, but also is shown (below) with her tribe in a pre-IC lineup wearing her RC clothes (including long pants), and not the swimsuit bottoms her tribemates are all wearing. Guess she couldn't engineer a missile with which to escape Exile Island during her brief stay there.
Immunity challenge: "4x4" - Bayoneta loses?
TV Guide has extensive coverage of the first IC (thanks to Survivor2345andbeyond for scanning and posting this at Sucks): "The 16 castaways compete in the season's first immunity challenge, called 4 x 4, which involves swimming, paddling on rafts, a brain-teasing puzzle and a ring toss."

Who wins? With four tribes, it doesn't really matter who wins, or places second or third, so much as who comes in last, because the first three finishers won't be going to tribal council. Although we do see Aras directing the ring/rope puzzle on the beach, and Nick doing the ring toss, so the younger men may finish first. As for last, Wickchix has heard that "a girl" is the first person booted. Also, as pointed out by VolcanicGlass at Blows and MayanSun at Sucks, the immunity idol appears to be a tripartite one, featuring two detachable skulls, one of which Shane appears to be carrying, post-IC. So the older men appear safe, and one of the female tribes most likely loses.
Immunity Challenge vidcaps - Click thumbnail to view larger image
pre-challenge pre-challenge, idol the ic begins, almost
1st challenge? aras jumps ep1 ic
ep1 ic aras, ep1 ic nick's ring toss
bayoneta with rings casaya during, during/after? post-ic, shane with idol
BOOT: Melinda? Ruth Marie?
For the boot, Wickchix alleges that the first boot is "a girl" (which could, in theory, also mean an older woman). Of those, ChillOne's spoilers eliminate Cirie, Danielle and Courtney from boot contention. That leaves Misty, Sally, Tina, Melinda and Ruth Marie.

If Misty is indeed the first exile, and the first boot comes from her tribe, she would seem to be the logical pick for first boot. Unless they all feel guilty, or something, and/or Sally does something (or nothing) to irritate the others in Misty's absence. Either could plausibly go first, but we're fairly sure Misty is not the first boot, and she seems a far more logical pick than social (worker) skilled Sally.

On the older women's tribe, perhaps more of a stretch for "girl," Tina, Melinda or Ruth Marie could each theoretically be vulnerable. But Tina seems to have something of a story to come, according to Jeff Probst's press teleconference comments. And lots of people seem to have info suggesting Tina did relatively well. So... Ruth Marie or Melinda? Probst had a "we'll see if she makes it" picture of Melinda, and a "won't last long without food" comment about Ruth Marie. If we had to pick one, we'd guess Ruth Marie, being older, might be a more logical first boot. But Melinda does have a fairly extensive web site all set up, already. Hmmm.... We'll go with Melinda, after all.
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