Survivor 40 boxscores
Ep.14: "It All Boils Down to This"
By Jeff Pitman | Published: May 17, 2020
Survivor: Winners at War boxscores

Filmed: June 25-29, 2019 |  Aired: May 13, 2020
Natalie wins, re-enters game
Michele wins F6 IC
Denise out, [0]-[0]; 4-0

 

  • Ep.14 EoE return RC: "Don't Call It a Comeback" - Natalie almost manages to blow her bevy of advantages, but thanks to dropped balls by Wendell and Tyson, still pulls off the win.
  • Ep.14 Final 6 IC: "Slide On" - Michele gives everyone a healthy headstart, then kicks it with her fave puzzle.
  • Ep.14 Final 6 voted out: In the traditional spot for screwed-by-idols results, Denise gets semi-Ciried. Natalie, Tony, and Ben all play their idols, wiping out the only votes (4 for Nat, 2 for Ben). On the revote, everyone just votes Denise, so she's out, [0]-[0]; 4-0.

 

Natalie finds idol
Tony wins IC
Ben out, 3-2

 

  • Ep.14 F5 idol: Tony spends all night looking for the idol, only for Natalie to swoop in at the end and take it.
  • Ep.14 Final 5 IC: "5 on 5" - The challenge crew, exhausted from a 13-lane build two days earlier, lets people toss two sandbags to win. Tony takes it.
  • Ep.14 Final 5 voted out: Ben gives Sarah his blessing to vote him out, she accepts, 3-2.

 

Natalie wins F4 IC
Tony wins at fire, Sarah out
Tony wins, 12-4-0

 

  • Ep.14 Final 4 IC: "Simmotion" - Natalie and Michele last to the 5-ball stage, Natalie wins.
  • Ep.14 Final 4 fire: In a back-and-forth contest, Tony wins, eliminating his partner, Sarah.
  • Ep.14 Final Tribal and jury vote: Tony wins! 12-4-0. Survivor > Edge of Extinction. As seen on Zoom.

 

Episode 14 scoring notes

Notes:

- *F6 Tribal Council: Nobody received VFB credit, because all six first-round votes were voided. If they'd split the vote as Tony wanted, maybe someone could have. Oh well.

 

F6 vote count:

- [Natalie received 4 votes, from Ben, Denise, Sarah, and Tony, all voided by her idol play.]

- [Ben received 2 votes, from Michele and Natalie, both voided by his idol play.]

 

F6 revote:

- Denise received 4 votes, from Ben, Michele, Natalie, and Tony (voted out, [0]-[0]; 4-0).

 

F5 vote count:

- Ben received 3 votes, from Michele, Natalie, and Sarah (voted out, 3-2).

- Michele received 2 votes, from Ben and Tony.

 

Final jury vote:

- Tony received 12 votes, from Adam, Amber, Ben, Boston Rob, Danni, Denise, Kim, Nick, Sarah, Sophie, Wendell, and Yul (winner, 12-4-0).

- Natalie received 4 votes, from Ethan, Jeremy, Parvati, and Tyson.

- Michele received 0 votes.

Episode 14 boxscore - re-entry challenge
Ep14 Reward Challenge  
Contestant ChW ChA Plc % fin MPF
Natalie 1 1 1 1.00 75.0%
Nick 0 1 t-4 0.54 66.7%
Wendell 0 1 t-2 0.88 65.7%
Sophie 0 1 t-4 0.54 60.6%
Tyson 0 1 t-2 0.88 58.9%
Jeremy 0 1 t-4 0.54 58.7%
Kim 0 1 t-4 0.54 57.5%
Boston Rob 0 1 t-4 0.54 51.9%
Parvati 0 1 t-4 0.54 51.9%
Yul 0 1 t-4 0.54 51.9%
Amber 0 1 t-4 0.54 51.9%
Danni 0 1 t-11 0.15 32.7%
Ethan 0 1 t-11 0.15 32.7%
Adam 0 1 t-11 0.15 28.1%
Episode 14 boxscore - F6 boot cycle
F6 Immunity Challenge F6 Tribal Council
Contestant ChW ChA Plc % fin MPF VFB VAP TotV TCA
Natalie 1 1 t-2 0.75 75.0% 0 0* 6 1
Tony 0 1 t-4 0.33 67.9% 0 - 6 1
Ben 0 1 t-4 0.33 60.1% 0 0* 6 1
Denise 0 1 t-4 0.33 53.9% 0 - 6 1
Sarah 0 1 t-2 0.75 52.9% 0 - 6 1
Michele 1 1 1 1.00 50.2% 0 - 6 1
Episode 14 boxscore - F5 boot cycle
F5 Immunity Challenge F5 Tribal Council
Contestant ChW ChA Plc % fin MPF VFB VAP TotV TCA
Tony 1 1 1 1.00 71.5% 0 - 5 1
Natalie 0 1 t-3 0.40 66.3% 1 - 5 1
Ben 0 1 2 0.80 62.3% 0 3 5 1
Sarah 0 1 t-3 0.40 51.5% 1 - 5 1
Michele 0 1 t-3 0.40 49.1% 1 2 5 1
Episode 14 boxscore - F4 cycle & Jury vote
F4 Immunity Challenge Jury vote
Contestant ChW ChA Plc % fin MPF JVF TotJ JV% SurvSc SurvAv
Tony 0 1 4 0.25 66.8% 12 16 0.75 1.81 13.73
Natalie 1 1 1 1.00 73.0% 4 16 0.25 0.86 4.35
Michele 0 1 2 0.75 51.7% 0 16 0.00 0.73 4.53
Sarah 0 1 3 0.50 51.3% - - - 0.65 3.80
Ben - - - - - - - - 0.88 3.60
Denise - - - - - - - - 0.80 4.39
Nick - - - - - - - - 0.89 3.36
Jeremy - - - - - - - - 0.82 2.91
Kim - - - - - - - - 0.71 2.84
Sophie - - - - - - - - 0.75 2.89
Tyson - - - - - - - - 0.78 2.39
Adam - - - - - - - - 0.89 1.99
Wendell - - - - - - - - 0.93 2.06
Yul - - - - - - - - 0.91 3.66
Parvati - - - - - - - - 0.61 2.01
Rob - - - - - - - - 0.56 2.00
Ethan - - - - - - - - 0.66 2.44
Danni - - - - - - - - 0.34 1.28
Amber - - - - - - - - -0.55 0.10
Sandra - - - - - - - - 0.95 4.04
Glossary of terms
  • Challenge stats
    • ChW: Challenge Wins. For tribal challenges, a contestant earns a fraction of 1 win, depending on if they participated (no points for sitting out). So in a five-person tribe's win, each participant gets (1/5) of a point, or 0.2 points. Duels (or individual RCs as in Ep1) at Redemption Island count as half a challenge (and half a win). Individual challenge wins count as a full point.
    • ChA: Challenge Appearances. Used to calculate ChW%. Fractional for tribal challenges (same as ChW), except sit-outs get charged for an appearance, because they could have participated.
    • ChW%: Challenge Win%. Simply, ChW% = ChW / ChA.
    • SO: The number of times a contestant sat out of a challenge.
  • Tribal Council stats
    • VFB: Votes For Bootee. The number of times the contestant has voted for the person who was ultimately voted out. Applies only to initial votes (no points for revotes in case of a tie). Special case: In a final three TC, where only one vote is cast (by the F3 IC winner), only that vote counts.
    • VAP: Votes Against the Player. The total number of tribal council votes cast against the contestant. Again, only initial votes count (no penalty for revotes), and here a hidden immunity idol (if played) erases the votes. In the special case of a final three tribal council above, only the F3 bootee receives a vote against.
    • TotV: Total votes cast during the tribal councils the player has attended (again, only initial votes count). Used to adjust for different vote totals as tribes shrink.
    • TCA: Tribal council appearances. The number of times a contestant has attended tribal council (at which they voted).
    • TC%: Tribal Council percent. Attempts to reward voting for the bootee (which players controlling the vote almost always do), while punishing receiving votes yourself. The formula is: TC% = [VFB - (VAP/TotV)] / TCA.
    • wTCR: weighted Tribal Council Ratio. Very similar in intent to TC%, but calculated as a ratio of VFB to VAP, while also scaling to a uniform number of TC appearances. The formula is as follows: wTCR =2* [VFB / (4+VAP)] x (14/TCA). I originally tried (1+VAP) to avoid dividing by zero, but this overly rewarded getting zero votes against relative to just one vote against, which seemed silly. (4+VAP) scaled that effect back comfortably. 14 was used as the scaling factor for TC appearances because there are usually 14 episodes, then a final scaling factor of 2 to bring maximal scores up to roughly even with ChW and JV% high scores.
  • Jury stats
    • JVF: Number of jury votes for the contestant to win. Maximum nine (Earl Cole, Fiji), theoretically.
    • TotJ: Total number of jurors. Necessary to not punish unanimous 7-juror winners (JT Thomas, Tocantins).
    • JV%: The percent of total jury votes cast for the contestant, or Jur% = JVF/ TotJ. This number is used, raw, in SurvSc, and is scaled in SurvAv (multiplied by six) to make it similar in size to ChW and wTCR.
  • Overall scores
    • Survival Score (SurvSc). It's simply the sum of Challenge Win% (ChW%) + Tribal Council% (TC%) + Jury Vote%, for a maximum possible score of 2 (3 after the finale).
    • Survival Average (SurvAv). It's a simple sum of fractional Challenge Wins (ChW), weighted TC Ratio (wTCR), and (eventually) a weighted Jury%. The latter two max out at six points total, for a theoretical maximum score of around 18 or so.

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