Well, in theory... Pat Ferrucci's S34 recaps
Well, in theory... - S36
By: Pat Ferrucci
Survivor: Ghost Island analysis

Who still has a chance to actually win?

Episode 13: Who still has a chance to actually win?

Published: May 17, 2018

 

With just the finale remaining, Pat asks how Ghost Island ranks as a Survivor season, and who among the remaining players is most likely to win.

 
The expected utility of not moving

Episode 12: The expected utility of not moving

Published: May 13, 2018

 

Pat looks to Expected Utility theory to try to decipher Laurel's big decision in Episode 12 of Ghost Island - a decision that came out, once again, to result in not making a move.

 
Cognitive dissonance and idle contestants

Episode 11: Cognitive dissonance and idle contestants

Published: May 5, 2018

 

Pat looks askance at the lackluster move-making thus far in the Ghost Island post-merge, and argues that several strategists' hesitance to change the game can be explained by the theory of cognitive dissonance.

 
How to change someone's mind

Episode 10: How to change someone's mind

Published: April 29, 2018

 

In analyzing the possibility of Big Moves actually taking place, Pat talks about the Elaboration Likelihood Model, and the central and peripheral routes to attitude change in the brain, and how this applies to Survivor.

 
What the heck was Angela trying to do?

Episode 9: What the heck was Angela trying to do?

Published: April 22, 2018

 

Pat notes Angela's strategic and challenge-dominating breakout episode, and finds traces of agenda-setting theory in her efforts to target Michael: Not in directly calling for his ouster, but in framing the conversation around him.

 
Self-efficacy and the path of least resistance

Episode 8: Self-efficacy and the path of least resistance

Published: April 17, 2018

 

Pat looks at the strategic choices made following the Survivor: Ghost Island merge, and uses the concept of self-efficacy and perceived access to power to explain the decision to target Chris.

 
The annual merge-time power rankings!

Episode 7: The annual merge-time Power Rankings!

Published: April 6, 2018

 

With seven Ghost Island episodes in the books and the merge approaching, Pat takes a break from the theory and updates his pre-season contestant evaluations. Which player is now the most likely to win?

 
Voting alone? Different types of social capital

Episode 6: Voting alone? Different types of social capital

Published: April 2, 2018

 

Pat finds support for Robert Putnam's concept of different types of social capital - bonded and bridged - in Angela's big decision between James and Naviti in Episode 6 of Ghost Island.

 
Oh, those disruptive puzzles!

Episode 5: Oh, those disruptive puzzles!

Published: March 24, 2018

 

Pat returns to talk about the theory of disruptive innovation, and how it applies to Survivor: As the formats of challenges have changed, a different kind of player has emerged as a challenge threat. Will the strategy adapt?

 
How do we attribute that blindside?

Episode 3: How do we attribute that blindside?

Published: March 10, 2018

 

Pat explains attribution theory, and how internal vs. external attribution comes to bear in carrying out actions that go against one's instincts, such as Libby's decision to blindside her friend, Morgan, in Episode 3 of Survivor: Ghost Island.

 
Don't upset the machine, OK?

Episodes 1-2: Don't upset the machine, OK?

Published: March 2, 2018

 

Pat reflects on the twin exits from Survivor: Ghost Island's promising premiere. Using Gareth Morgan's metaphor of organizations as machines, both early boots stood apart in their individuality, upset the early tribe machines, and were removed. Plus a look ahead at the remaining contestants' chances.

 
TDT Ghost Island contestant draft

Pre-season: TDT Ghost Island contestant draft

Published: February 22, 2018

 

The True Dork Times writers (Andy Baker, Ben Martell, Dan Otsuki, Pat Ferrucci, Ryan Kaiser, and Jeff Pitman) assemble to draft fantasy teams of Ghost Island contestants, in an attempt to seize eternal* glory by having the team containing the winner. Unless one of the two undrafted players (Team Ghost) win, in which case everyone loses. (*Or until Fall of 2018, whichever comes first.)

 
Which mistake will I repeat?

Pre-season: Which mistake will I repeat?

Published: February 12, 2018

 

After Pat restricts his pre-season perusal to just their CBS bios, he ranks the contestants of Survivor: Ghost Island into tiers of win probability: Likely, Possible, Unlikely, and Impossible. Who will be the unlucky victim of his cursed winner pick?

 

Pat Ferrucci Survivor 36 recapsPat Ferrucci started watching Survivor when episode two of Borneo first aired. He's seen every episode since. Besides recapping here, he'll be live-tweeting this season from the Mountain Time Zone. Why? Because nobody cares about the Mountain Time Zone except when they want to ski. Follow him @patferrucci for Survivor stuff and tweets about anything and everything that enters his feeble mind. 

Other Well, in theory... editions:

Survivor: Ghost Island | Survivor: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers | Survivor: Game Changers | Survivor: Millennials vs. Gen X | Survivor: Kaoh Rong | Survivor: Cambodia - Second Chance

 

See also: The full True Dork Times index of past seasons.

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