After years of fan wishlists and shameless begging from pre-merge boots (I'm looking at you, Brian Corridan), it's finally coming: a "second chance" season of Survivor filled with contestants who didn't quite make the impact necessary to be deemed "All-Star," "Favorite," "Hero," "Villain," or "Most Bangable." The producers assembled a batch of players but are giving fans complete control as to who makes the cut, because someone caught the fine print they were hoping we wouldn't see. (Alas, nobody on the ballot was eliminated before the fifth episode, so your annoying co-worker will continue to tell you how awesome he thinks it would be to see a season of all the people who were voted out first.) As you'd expect, the options range from OMG! to WTF? to AHNNCA (Aw hell no, not Culpepper again).
So now that we've officially been given permission to stop caring about Worlds Apart, let's enter the brief window of time in which we will care about Second Chance, before the boot spoilers come in and we realize how awful it's going to be. Jeff Probst gave an interview to EW.com with some details about how the voting works, but naturally, he left out some key details. Below is an annotated and translated version that might clear up some discrepancies.
ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY: You guys have been listening to the fans a lot lately—like giving us three seasons in a row with all new players—and now you're giving the fans even more power by letting them pick your cast. Tell me how this new fan-voted twist came about.
JEFF PROBST: Well, like a lot of Survivor ideas, we've wanted to do this one for a long time because we knew we had a group of really good players who didn't last in the game long enough to warrant being put on an all-star type of season. [To warrant being put on an all-star type of season, you need to last a while. You know, like Francesca.] But we believed they had great game inside them if they were to be given a second chance. So the key came down to timing, because we always wanted the fans to be the deciders in this group. [We wanted someone to blame if it sucked ass.] We wanted the fans to make the decision, and then we immediately wanted to be able to go shoot the season. [If we had more time to think about it, we'd probably just play it safe and have Rupert for a fifth time. Everybody loves the pirate.] So this is the first time our shooting schedule has allowed us to pull that off, because we're actually shooting earlier in the year than we normally do. [Stay tuned for season 2 of The Jeff Probst Show, coming this fall to TBS!] So it lined up. And the minute it did, we pitched it to CBS and they said, "This is great, this is the perfect time to do it. Let's do it." [We went in to Moovnes's office when he'd just popped a Viagra and was about to have a quickie with Julie Chen, so he'd agree to anything to get us out of there.]
What I love about it is that all the people competing for votes have only played once, so we're not getting folks that have played two or three times already. I have to imagine that was a conscious decision to keep it feeling fresh.
That was the point. The point was, we have all these great players—people that we liked enough to put on the show—but in most cases, they got cut early…too early to have made the jury. [Except for the 75% of players on the ballot who did make the jury or finals.] And if they didn't make the jury, then they probably weren't known enough to be an all-star. [Like that one dude from that early season who wore a Red Sox cap and quoted The Godfather...Boston Todd? No, that doesn't sound right. Boston Jed? Yeah, that was it!] And yet, you would look at them and think, "Man though, they had great game. If they had just lasted a couple of more votes, who knows?" There's always going to be people who deserve a second shot because they just didn't get far enough the first time, for whatever reason. And then the no winners thing was the other part of it—it's not a second shot if you've already won. So it was people who have only played once and have not won. [So basically people like Tony and Denise are punished for being successful? I blame Obama.]
Big Brother did a fan voted all-stars season back in 2006, but only allowed the audience to pick half of the cast so they could make sure that certain players they really wanted in the show made it regardless of being voted in or not. Any concern about giving this much power to viewers to pick the whole cast?
We've been on so long that our philosophy has evolved. Six or seven or eight years ago, we would not have given them the power to choose everybody for the exact same reason you just said. [Now we trust the audience enough to pick 62.5% of a list we've already determined.] But as more time goes on and as our relationship with our audience deepens [I'm thinking of having the audience spend the night in my virtual living room], I'm certainly a proponent of taking bigger chances. [I might let the audience try some butt stuff.] You said at the top of this that we continue to let our fans be involved, and I like to have fun on Twitter and say, "I hate memory challenges." And then people go, "We love them! We love them!" And I'm like, "Okay, they'll be back." [Whatever.] Those aren't do or die decisions. [We don't let fans make those anymore after the backlash from our "Should we pull Russell Swan off of life support?" Twitter poll. #SAVERUSSELL barely trended.]
The real truth is that fans are much better at telling you what they don't want—they're not always so good at telling you what they do want. [I changed the word "women" to "fans," but otherwise I took this verbatim from my 1980s stand-up routine.] It's like [Henry] Ford said: "If I'd asked people what they wanted, they would've wanted a faster horse." I believe that to be true. Sometimes fans will say this is what we should do and they don't know what they're talking about. [I'm referring, of course, to the infamous petition, "Let a Dog Play Survivor."] This is a case where the whole premise was based on picking people that we think either played a great game and it got cut off early, or they barely got started and we think they have a better game. Or, in the case of a couple of people, the first time they played, they were maybe lambed…they were virgins. [Which is why all of this season's contestants will receive a special pre-game "pep talk" from Parvati Shallow.] And we feel like maybe they learned something and it'd be fun to watch them play a second time—kind of like Amber when she came back and everybody said "Why Amber?" [Because Elisabeth said no.] And I still remember Lynne Spillman and I talking and saying, "Because what if? What if she's figured it out? That would be fun to watch." [And I still remember Mark Burnett saying, "Don't let Amber board that plane until we know for sure that The View is a done deal."]
So that was kind of the idea from the beginning is, when we do this, let them choose. The power we had was putting the list together, and as people will see, we took some chances. [Like the chance that nerdy fans might go all Baltimore on our asses when they find out we cut Greg Buis.] We put some people on here that are obvious, and we put some people on there that fans may go, "Wow, really? Huh." It's your call: Who do you want to see? You pick! [#SAVEBUIS]
One thing I remember from the Big Brother voting is that for the most part, the people voted in were all from very recent seasons—because, you know, out of sight out of mind. Are you concerned that you might get all very recent contestants, and that folks from the very early seasons like Kelly, Kimmi, Jeff Varner and others might not make it because of how long ago they were on the show?
I think that's a good question. In a perfect world, having Kelly Wiglesworth—who is the ultimate second chancer, because she was the first runner-up; she lost by one vote to Richard Hatch in the first season [Lasting all 39 days, coming within one vote of winning, and setting a still-unbroken challenge record? That doesn't scream "all-star" the way blindly following Jerri does], so there's certainly a little bit of nostalgia for someone like Kelly that you'd love to see—but you give it to the fans. [And let them take her, and do whatever they want with her, with no ill regrets.] And the beauty is, the people who are watching the show are telling you who they want. So if they choose everybody from the last five seasons, let's go. I'm good with that. [I get paid either way.] We have great people. I look at the people on this list and I'm happy to have any collection of 20—10 men and 10 women—and really, honestly, ultimately I don't care. [*puffs a cigarette and pulls down sunglasses as I rev up a motorcycle*] It'd be great if we had it diverse going back to season 1 all the way to season 30, because that would represent our entire run. But if that's not what they decide, that's okay. What was important to us was that we give you the choice. [Quick poll: should we make every challenge this season a memory challenge? The first 12 people to tweet me decide!] We're giving you people that span the globe—it's up to you who you want.
You are calling this twist "Second Chance," and you clearly mentioned it's for people that did not win the first time around. But you have two people in Mike and Carolyn that are still in contention for the current season airing. By having them be potential contestants in a second chance season, isn't that a huge spoiler in big neon letters that they do not win this season?
Oh my God, I didn't even think of this! [DURRRRRR!!!!!!] You've just caught me off guard! [Laughs] [He's buying it. This is my best acting since Two and a Half Men.] As you would expect from Survivor, we found a way to add a little twist, a little layer of mystery, into the Second Chance voting. [Nice save. Whew, that was a close one. Now just don't say Will's name at any point in this interview or it will be a dead giveaway that he won.] So the definition of Second Chance is, contestants who have only played once and never won. So, that means either Mike and Carolyn both lost, or one of them could be, ultimately, ineligible. [So, that means either Worlds Apart has the most horrible winner of all time, or we're wasting a voting slot on someone for the sake of a last-minute "shocker" at the reunion.]
So people could throw all of their voting into Carolyn, and then if she wins Worlds Apart, you have to tell them that their votes don't count? That's kind of a bummer for people wasting all that time voting for her!
Well, that's the way it goes. This is an interactive, fun game, and this is, in a way, like being blindsided. [I think Americans would enjoy the electoral process a lot more if random ineligible candidates were thrown into the mix.] And the good news is, if it was Carolyn who won and she had a bunch of votes but wasn't able to play, then whoever was the eleventh woman would suddenly be in the game and that would be fun for them. [Fun, unnecessarily torturous, it's all the same!] It's just a fun way to do it, and I wouldn't want it any other way. There's like an implied agreement that everything that happens on Survivor will have some sort of "Huh, is that all there is to it? Or is there something else?" [Oh crap, I said Will's name!]
Not to lobby, but I really think Shane Powers and Jim Rice would be fun to see again.
You are hitting on what we hope will happen, which is true fans will vote for people they remember. [See, it's another memory challenge! You guys love those things!] They may have to think for a minute, but I agree with you—that's why Jim Rice is on there, because he was a really interesting guy, very conniving, good player, but got voted out early. What would happen if he had lasted a few more weeks? [Could he have helped Ozzy or Coach win? That's the real question.] Who knows? He could've been a perennial all-star—that's what fun about Second Chance. I can tell you one thing: from talking to these guys, there is a level of motivation that rivals even the most hardcore fan who finally gets on the show, because some of these people—like, Savage has been waiting since Season 6. [He knew Pearl Islands was a lost cause.] That's what, 13 years or something like that? Pining over this, thinking over and over again. Kelly Wiglesworth thinking about one vote didn't change my life—that one damn vote. [Then again, Dr. Sean was right; that Fat Naked Fag calendar really was worth it.] And hers will have been almost 16 years. So those people have had a lot of time to think about it, and I think that makes the stakes for them really big. And yet, someone will still be the first person voted out of Second Chancers. [Let this be a warning to all potential contestants: for the next two weeks, steer clear of Danny Bonaduce.]
If Michael Skupin hadn't fallen in the fire, Jeff Varner's whole deal in Season 2 could have been completely different as well.
If Jeff Varner didn't step down for peanut butter! Jeff Varner said he has not had peanut butter since, and that was Season 2, fourteen plus years ago—because he stepped down and got voted out. [And he didn't even get a Playboy spread out of it.] And he got voted out on a rule that we used to have, which is if there was a tie, then whoever had the most total votes at that point went home. We since got rid of it, because it didn't really seem like that was an appropriate way to break a tiebreaker. [Using votes to break a tie? In a game that's all about voting? What the hell were we thinking?!] So Varner could make the case that "I was voted out on something you guys don't even use anymore." Savage could make the case, "I got voted out on the Outcast twist," which I've said is one of the few times I think we blew it. [One of the other times is when we let a dog play Survivor. His name was Mike Borassi.] So there are those kinds of stories, and then there are stories like Natalie, who played with Boston Rob and the story about her was—a lot of people would say she was just a young girl who was dragged to the end. But, in being dragged for 39 days, she was being dragged by one of the best—did she pick anything up? [Herpes.] I don't know. If you're interested, vote for her. [What a heartfelt and enthusiastic endorsement.]
Woo kept saying after his season that he did not regret taking Tony to the end, and would do the same thing again. If he makes it back in, I would be fascinated to see if he would actually stick with that line of thinking or not.
Yeah, Woo is definitely a well-liked guy. The kids loved Woo. [But you have to be at least 13 to vote, so tough shit, tweens.] I've wondered—should I be in an alliance with Woo? Or does he still have some resentment and bitterness and maybe that's a bad choice, I don't know. But he's a likeable guy. And all of the people we've mentioned so far—if all of those people made it, I'd be through the roof. They're all great—no matter who you pick, I could give you a story about why I think they'd be fun. [But, you know, I really don't care either way. It's all so Whateversville to me, man. *takes another puff of the cigarette and puts another pair of sunglasses over the ones I already have on*]
So how is the announcement of who actually makes the cast going to work?
Here's how this is going to work—you vote up until the first hour of the finale when we're live. [Yeah, we're doing that whole live finale thing that nobody likes. Stay tuned for exciting segments like, "Questions From a 9-Year-Old Girl Who Has a Crush on Joe," "Viewers Incoherently Babble About Watching Survivor," and "Here's How Much Food the Contestants Eat in a Day, and Here's How Much You Eat, You Fatass."] We're in Los Angeles, we kick off the show, we start running that last episode. And for an hour, the polls are still open.
Up until 9 p.m. Eastern.
Then they close. Then we finish this season, we have a reunion show, and in the audience will be the 32 people with their suitcases ready to go. [They will get more airtime at the reunion than 2/3 of the current cast.] And at the end of the reunion show, we will do a live reveal of the new cast and they will literally leave the studio, get on a bus, and start heading out. [Thus ensuring that, one hour after he or she is crowned the winner, the Worlds Apart champion will be completely forgotten, at least until they get arrested in a few years for tax evasion, shooting a puppy with a bow and arrow, or skateboarding while high (or hey, why not go for the hat trick?).] And what I love about these guys is they know that—they know that it's going to be in front of everybody, and you're either in or you're out. And that speaks to what I talked about: that motivation. They don't care that they might be embarrassed by not getting the votes, because they want it bad enough that they're willing to risk that. That's a ballsy move, to sit in an audience on a live television show and know that you may be told yes or you may be told no. [It's pretty ballsy to put yourself in the same shoes as potential baby daddies on Maury.] And if you're told no, it really is being voted out. The audience of your favorite show just told you, "We don't want to see you, sorry." [But don't feel too bad for them; they'll all be featured on a special episode of The Jeff Probst Show about dealing with rejection, this fall on TBS!]
So now that we've got that covered, let's get down to the main event: the 32 contenders. Why should you vote for them? What will they bring to the season if they get another shot? And what does a casual fan (i.e. my mom) think of them? Here's a look at the potential cast members of Survivor: L̶e̶f̶t̶o̶v̶e̶r̶s̶ Second Chance.
- Why She Should Make It: The first runner-up is a Survivor legend whose five consecutive challenge wins make up a record that has yet to be broken after 15 years. As the sole member of the Tagi Four left out of the original All-Stars, a return engagement is way overdue. Plus, she's the only person here who is namechecked in the press release about the vote, and as the apparent inspiration for the whole Second Chance season at that. That's obviously total BS, but it seems like she's on the producers' shortlist.
- Why She Won't: Recency bias is the main thing working against her. That said, it's also up in the air as to how willing she'd be to play the alliance game this time. She certainly doesn't seem like the type to make pre-game deals in any event, which might put her at an early disadvantage.
- My Mom Says: "She looks a lot older now. I liked her back then."
- Odds: 85%
- Why She Should Make It: She's responsible for one of the most memorable arguments in Survivor history, and if Alicia could earn a slot on All-Stars pretty much entirely because of it, surely the target of her finger-wagging is worthy. And from Boston Rob's fafaru PTSD and Gervase's larvae redemption, gross food challenges make for fun recurring story arcs between seasons, and Kimmi has a great one with her refusal to eat cow brain followed by a triumphant "I can eat a worm!" It'd be fun to reunite her with chicken fight instigator Jeff Varner too.
- Why She Won't: She's an early boot from a very early season, so unless a band of sympathetic chickens power votes, she has an uphill battle. I don't think the producers would dig back 14 years unless they were truly interested in seeing her return, but she's probably the least likely of the old-school bunch to make it. (If only five pre-All-Stars contestants--including four who had already played a second time--made the cut for S20, I sadly don't see the same amount appearing on S31.)
- My Mom Says: "I remember she was loud."
- Odds: 30%
- Why He Should Make It: He just missed the cut for the original All-Stars, and apparently was in contention for some sort of alternate Outcasts twist in Pearl Islands. The producers have clearly wanted him back for a long time, and anyone who's a fan of hysterically quotable confessions should feel the same way. Varner is probably the earliest example of my favorite archetype for Survivor contestants: a sort of Michael Bluth who realizes he is surrounded by crazy people and acts as a surrogate for the audience. While you're sitting at home wanting to shake the shit out of Kimmi, or thinking, "That's classic Mike, he's an idiot," Jeff is out there feeling the same way.
- Why He Won't: Outback was huge, but again, being a pre-jury boot on a season that aired 14 years ago is tough when you're competing for viewer votes.
- My Mom Says: "Oh, I remember him! He was funny."
- Odds: 40%
- Why She Should Make It: Not only was she crafty and adaptable, she could very well be the most genuinely nice person ever to play Survivor. Even the most cynical of viewers would be hard-pressed to think of something negative to say about T-Bird. She was pretty much cast to fill the Tina Wesson role in Africa, and since Tina was so lovable and easy to root for on Blood vs. Water, why not let Teresa fill those shoes again? Plus, there really isn't anyone else comparable on the ballot. As backwards as it sounds to say about a southern white woman, Teresa would add some diversity to this group.
- Why She Won't: Sigh...14 years. I want it to happen more than Lindsey wants the world to know about her menstrual cycle, more than Frank wants Mitt Romney in the White House right now, more than Big Tom wants an invite to a synagogue-sponsored trip to IHOP...but it's gonna be a tough one. But hey, if she could survive the hardest season of all time, maybe she can pull this off. Let's all join hands and sing "Tomorrow" at the top of our lungs as we pray to Mother Africa to make this happen!
- My Mom Says: "I don't remember her, but if you say she was nice, then I'll vote for her."
- Odds: 35%
- Why He Should Make It: Isn't this guy, like, Probst's BFF or something? There are very few players who can legitimately claim they were screwed over by a twist, and Andrew is one of them. It's very likely that he would have ended up as the merge boot regardless of the Outcasts twists, but we'll never know for sure. I totally get why so many people can't stand him, but he was a fantastic character who probably would have returned a long time ago if he hadn't been overshadowed by the likes of Rupert, Sandra, and Fairplay (and who wouldn't be?). Besides, even if you aren't a fan--don't you want to see him lose legitimately so he can no longer use the "Outcasts screwed me over" excuse?
- Why He Won't: "So he got outlasted by someone who had been voted out already, big deal. He should have just won his way back on Redemption Island like Lil did." - rusellwasrobed99, a 16-year-old who started watching in Samoa and is going to code auto-voting software to get Stephanie and Mikayla to return.
- My Mom Says: "What season was he on?" [I explain it was the one with Rupert, Fairplay, and Sandra, and that he was eliminated because of the Outcasts twist.] "Yeah, he deserves to come back."
- Odds: 50%
Shane Powers
- Why He Should Make It: He's arguably the single biggest "Why has he not returned yet?" player in Survivor history. If I remember correctly, Jeff Probst was talking about bringing Shane back before Panama even started airing, so why he was passed over for Micronesia and Heroes vs. Villains is extremely puzzling.
- Why He Won't: Considering how much he's been dicked around in the past when it comes to returning, there is a very real possibility that this whole pool of returnees things is an epic Joe Schmo Show-style prank on Shane that the other 31 are in on.
- My Mom Says: "I don't think I saw that season."
- Odds: 55%
- Why He Should Make It: Terry somehow managed to absolutely dominate yet simultaneously remain the underdog the entire second half of the game. While Panama was airing, it was easy to paint Terry as a cocky Tom Westman wannabe with a mean streak, but the fact is, the guy made great television. Haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate but Terry is not gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake it off--he's gonna kick, kick, kick, kick, kick your ass and rub, rub, rub, rub, rub your nose in it. (Also, like fellow challenge badass Kelly Wiglesworth, he is the only person to make the final four in his season who has yet to return. And do you really want to live in a world where Aras and Danielle get to play twice but not Terry?)
- Why He Won't: After watching Colby go from unbeatable in the Outback to sucking in Samoa, do we want to run the risk of watching Terry suffer the same fate?
- My Mom Says: "Oh, I liked him." [I explain that he was from the same season as Shane.] "Maybe I'm confusing him with Tom. But I think I remember Terry."
- Odds: 55%
- Why She Should Make It: One of the scrappiest underdogs in Survivor history, Peih-Gee was like a cockroach that couldn't be killed. (I say that in the most complimentary way of comparing someone to a cockroach possible.) If there were any justice in the world, she wouldn't even be on this ballot, because she would have been on Micronesia and kicked copious amounts of ass the second time around. But better late than never for another chance.
- Why She Won't: She's been such a major fan favorite since China aired that it's easy to forget that she was fairly unpopular during the first half of the season (largely because she and Jaime controversially--but totally sensibly--threw a challenge after a tribe swap). She's got the support of the hardcore fan community for sure, but casual viewers are a question mark.
- My Mom Says: "How do you pronounce her name? Who was on her season?" [I only name Courtney.] "Oh, she [Courtney] was the one you liked. Did you like Peih-Gee?" [I respond affirmatively.] "Ok, then I'll vote for her."
- Odds: 65%
- Why He Should Make It: As Gervase would say, "Don't let that shutout final vote fool you!" Stephen happened to be sitting next to the greatest social player in Survivor history at the end, but he was a fantastic, charming strategist who sadly stumbled at the Final Tribal Council. He may very well be the best runner-up of all time. (Parvati supporters, you have a legitimate argument too. Colby fans, maybe. Ozzy lovers, just...no.) He's too smart not to have learned from his mistakes, and he's kept a high profile in the fan community with his Rob Has a Podcast activity and People.com column.
- Why He Won't: Somewhere out there in Merica, there has to be at least one shortsighted person--I'm looking at you, rusellwasrobed99--who's all like, "Yeah, it'd be nice to have him play again, but then he can't be on the podcast for a whole season!" Not to mention the small but vocal group of avocado aficionados who still haven't forgiven him for his poor cutting technique.
- My Mom Says: "He's kind of familiar. He looks a lot more dapper in this picture than I remember him."
- Odds: 75%
- Why She Should Make It: She breathed some life into an otherwise dire endgame in Samoa by actually putting a (temporary) obstacle in Russell Hantz's march to the finals. Like she says in her video, she should have been more aggressive throughout the entire game, but unlike others, you get the sense that she's actually gonna follow through on correcting that mistake.
- Why She Won't: Samoa is chronologically in a tough spot for a poll of this sort--it wasn't recent enough for the majority of the audience to instantly remember Monica, and she's not really seen as an icon to the diehard fans.
- My Mom Says: "I don't remember her. Why do you want me to vote for her?" [I explain that Monica was one of the few people who stood up to Russell Hantz in his original season.] "Oh, she was against Russell? Then yeah, I'll vote for her."
- Odds: 60%
- Why She Should Make It: None of the 16 newbies on Redemption Island really benefited from Rob and Russell being there, but Stephanie took one of the biggest hits--if she hadn't been so attached to Russell, her spunky, aggressive style could have led to success.
- Why She Won't: Half of her campaign video is just a love letter to Russell. Also, the threat that the season will be boring without you would carry a little more weight if you didn't come from the single most snoozeworthy season of all time.
- My Mom Says: "I don't remember her." [I explain that she was one of Russell's allies.] "No. No Russell allies."
- Odds: 50%
- Why She Should Make It: She's got the Amber factor in her favor: a young, naive girl the first time around who the audience and her fellow players may discount, only to find that she learned from her mistakes and has matured into a stronger strategist.
- Why She Won't: She had the Amber factor the first time too, with Boston Rob taking her all the way to the finals. And does anyone really want to see another Amber win an All-Star season?
- My Mom Says: "Her? She was useless!"
- Odds: 75%
- Why She Should Make It: Because apparently Mellisa McNulty is unavailable.
- Why She Won't: Did she actually, like, do...anything? If all it takes to get a spot on Survivor is to have a creepy dude watch you bathe all the time, then sign up for a membership at Jean-Robert's gym if you wanna get on S33.
- My Mom Says: "I don't remember her at all." [I explain that she was the object of Brandon Hantz's creepy affections.] "Oh. I remember that but I don't remember her."
- Odds: 35%
- Why He Should Make It: He's funny and strategic, and there's the off-chance that some nearsighted, colorblind baseball fans will vote for him.
- Why He Won't: He's sort of in a dead zone, timing-wise. South Pacific aired just long enough ago that its players aren't fresh in most viewers' minds, and although Jim was absolutely a standout contestant during that season, he didn't really do anything to leave a long-term mark. The hardcore fans who remember someone like Jim also remember his spiritual predecessor Jeff Varner, and why settle for Jim when the original king of snark is on the table?
- My Mom Says: "I don't remember him either." [I try to remember a moment or personality trait but all I can think of is "pot dealer."] "Oh." [I then explain that he was closely aligned with Ozzy.] "I never really 'got' Ozzy."
- Odds: 10%
- Why He Should Make It: He was one of the biggest characters in One World, and probably the only person post-merge who wasn't directly or indirectly playing for Kim to win. Plus, he favorited a tweet of mine where I complained about the possibility of him returning, so at least he has a sense of humor about himself.
- Why He Won't: He's admittedly polarizing, but I feel like there were more detractors than supporters. Plus, millions of viewers Eternal Sunshine'd One World out of their memories. I think some of the contestants that season probably did too.
- My Mom Says: "Oh no! I don't want him to come back at all."
- Odds: 30%
- Why She Should Make It: If Kim hadn't been so intent on chewing bubble gum and kicking ass in One World, Sabrina seemed like a solid enough strategic and social player who stood a decent shot at winning.
- Why She Won't: Kim ran out of bubble gum on day 1, and the rest of the season became futile. If the voting pool were limited to, say, the last ten seasons or so, Sabrina would be a perfectly acceptable choice. But it's not, and she isn't.
- My Mom Says: "I don't remember her." [I explain that she came in second to Kim.] "Maybe I kind of remember her. But I don't know."
- Odds: 50%
- Why She Should Make It: All things considered, I would argue that she's actually the most entertaining female on the ballot. She's an unusual case of a villain character who realizes her role but is not forcing some over-the-top bitchy persona to create controversy. She just naturally rubs people the wrong way and doesn't seem to care.
- Why She Won't: ...And that includes the audience. The producers would undoubtedly include someone who caused so much drama, but they (supposedly) aren't in charge here.
- My Mom Says: "Oh, she was terrible. I don't want to see her again."
- Odds: 65%
- Why He Should Make It: Any contestant who inspires the catchphrase, "Fuck you, Brad Culpepper!" obviously left his mark. And being famous outside of Survivor can only be an asset when it comes to the voting.
- Why He Won't: The guy is being sued as a result of his first Survivor appearance, and his wife regrets him playing. Unless he plans to pick up a piece of firewood, yell "OWWWWWWWWWW MY BACK!" and quit on Day 1 in order to help his case for the lawsuit, something doesn't really add up about him coming back.
- My Mom Says: "He was the worst. I wanted Hayden to come back." [I say that John Cody was also from that season.] "Oh, I really wanted him to come back."
- Odds: 30%
- Why He Should Make It: For such a mild-mannered guy, Vytas had just the right mix of charm and shadiness to stand out even in a season filled with over-the-top personalities.
- Why He Won't: Aras was a nice guy in Survivor: Panama, but ultimately a pretty forgettable winner. It was the sibling rivalry that helped him stand out in Blood vs. Water. Would Vytas be worth watching without his brother?
- My Mom Says: "I liked him."
- Odds: 70%
- Why She Should Make It: She had a low-key start but eventually emerged as a gamer. But let's be real here: she's on the ballot for one reason. That heart-wrenching "Laura (Mom)" vote pretty much sealed her fate--maybe not in Blood vs. Water, but it's a surefire way to guarantee yourself a return engagement.
- Why She Won't: ...Of course, it was only a smart move in that respect. When she, Katie, and Hayden decided to risk drawing rocks a round later, it wound up being a bold but ultimately "too little, too late" play that could have been avoided. But really, anyone who is willing to both vote out their mother and draw rocks is kind of a badass, so if she does get this second chance, hopefully she gets off the ground with the big moves right away this time.
- My Mom Says: "The one who voted out her mom? Yeah, she was good."
- Odds: 95%
- Why She Should Make It: Tasha is likable, smart, attractive, entertaining, and she has the best record of individual challenge performance by any female since Kelly Wiglesworth. Plus, she was on a very popular recent season. There is literally no reason she shouldn't make the cut.
- Why She Won't: Because life and Survivor casting aren't always fair. (Just ask Greg Buis.)
- My Mom Says: "Oh, I liked her a lot."
- Odds: 95%
- Why He Should Make It: He's a fan favorite who could never seem to catch a break during a hugely popular season.
- Why He Won't: He will.
- But Really, Just Play Devil's Advocate: There is a 100% chance Spencer will be on this season.
- What if We Find Out That He Was Using Steroids and His Olympic Medals Are Revoked?: That was Crystal Cox. Spencer is coming back. Deal with it.
- My Mom Says: "I wasn't a huge fan of his, but I like him. I'll vote for him."
- Odds: 150-200%
- Why She Should Make It: She's not afraid to make big moves, and she's quite possibly the most self-aware, genuine female villain ever on the show. Don't count on her using a second chance as a shot at improving her image ala Jerri Manthey...if anything, Kass is probably going to be even more unapologetic this time around.
- Why She Won't: Although she's a recent player, the fan vote format may work against Kass, since she had a pretty icy reception, much like Ivette from Big Brother 6--and even if it's true to the Chaos Kass persona, is trolling said fans about being on the ballot really the best way to win them over?
- My Mom Says: "She caused drama, I'll give her that. I'll vote for her."
- Odds: 95%
- Why He Should Make It: If he had simply written down "T-O-N-Y" on day 38, Woo wouldn't even be eligible for this winner-free season. He literally came closer to the title than anyone else here. Plus, S30 is proof that it helps to have someone likable towards the end. And that's Woo.
- Why He Won't: The only thing standing in his way is the possibility of Cagayan oversaturation. I don't think the producers necessarily object to featuring four or more representatives from such a beloved season, but there are 20 slots here with essentially 28 seasons' worth of contestants to pull from (many of which obviously are not represented in the voting pool, of course). That seems excessive. Plus, S30 is proof that it helps to have someone who will strategically rock the boat towards the end. And that's not Woo.
- My Mom Says: "He's probably my favorite."
- Odds: 95%
- Why She Should Make It: While most Blood vs. Water contestants waxed poetic about how thrilling it was to play the game with their loved one, Kelley openly lamented the fact that her father's abrasiveness probably cut her Survivor stint short. Would she have more success if she doesn't have to worry about him destroying her game?
- Why She Won't: It's one thing to bring someone back because she showed some strategic potential, but she should at least have exhibited some memorable entertainment value the first time. Also: two Kell(e)y W's on the same season? Madness!
- My Mom Says: "I don't remember her." [I say that she was from last season, and she played with her father.] "I still don't remember her."
- Odds: 30%
- Why He Should Make It: I wasn't much of a fan, but credit where credit is due, he was one of the few textbook strategists in a season that decidedly lacked exciting gameplay during its first half. It would also be quite fun to see Keith outlast him again despite being a supposedly lesser player.
- Why He Won't: Look, I'm not trying to persuade anyone not to vote for the guy, but did he even enjoy himself out there? He was always bitching about something, even at the reunion. He's gonna get in; I'm prepared for that. But he needs to remember the human factor this time and not approach the game like he's Kasparov and his opponents are all Deep Blue.
- My Mom Says: "Ugh, not him."
- Odds: 90%
- Why He Should Make It: So he can outlast Jeremy again. Muahahahaha! Also, he was legitimately entertaining as a tough-loving father figure. *spits*
- Why He Won't: For viewers, seeing Keith play again will inevitably be a case of diminishing returns. If he decides to take a more strategic approach this time, he won't be as much fun to watch. If he decides to just go with the flow and win people over with his southern charm again, then it'll basically just be like watching a rerun. *spits*
- My Mom Says: "I liked him."
- Odds: 85%
- Why He Should Make It: With a cast full of former contestants, his knowledge of the show will be more of an asset than a liability this time.
- Why He Won't: His storyline already had pretty much the most perfect ending ever. (Cue Max interrupting that Bubba from Vanuatu actually had a more fitting exit.)
- My Mom Says: "He was kind of annoying. I was glad he got out early."
- Odds: 20%
- Why He Should Make It: He was the hunky never-say-die underdog who dominated individual challenges on a season that's still airing. He's in.
- Why He Won't: See Spencer. I'm not going through this again.
- My Mom Says: "Oh, he'd better get in."
- Odds: 100%
- Why She Should Make It: She's a very rare example of a player who realized she was rubbing her fellow contestants the wrong way and actually made an effort to change her behavior. Most people are excited to get a shot at playing Survivor, but Shirin takes it to a whole new level, even grinning through her torch-snuffing (of course, anyone would be happy to be getting away from Dan and Will). Like she says in her video, she's such a huge fan that she got caught up in the experience the first time, but she promises to be more on her game if she gets another shot.
- Why She Won't: Come on, Shirin, don't kid yourself--you'll be fangirling twice as hard when you realize you're playing with the likes of Spencer Bledsoe and Kelly Wiglesworth. That's way cooler than watching monkey sex. Also, despite an increasingly positive edit the last few weeks, not all viewers have moved past her quirky first impression.
- My Mom Says: "I warmed up to her the last few weeks. I felt for her. Yeah, I want to see her come back."
- Odds: 95%
- Why He Should Make It: Even if he still hasn't won me over, I have to admit that these last few episodes of Worlds Apart would be impossible to stomach without him providing a counterpoint to the negativity and general awfulness of the other remaining contestants. And he's been consistently competitive and high-profile all season.
- Why He Won't: Given the other options in this final six, I think most people would rather have Mike win on his first try than take a slot in Second Chance. I mean, if all the "A blue-collar will win this season" moments are meant to be foreshadowing, that has to mean it's Mike...right? It can't be Dan, Rodney, or Sierra...please?
- My Mom Says: "He's a good player. If he loses this time, he should definitely come back."
- Odds: 95% if he doesn't win Worlds Apart
- Why She Should Make It: Carolyn seems like an unusual choice--she isn't wildly popular, she doesn't fill the "young girl in a bikini" quota, and despite some solid gameplay, she's unlikely to be someone the audience will remember in a few years.
- Why She Won't: At no point in her pitch video does Carolyn seem determined to play harder--she actually seems to be going in the opposite direction and wants to be more likable. The only real factor in her favor is that she's from the most recent season, so she's probably included here more to cause doubt for the Worlds Apart finale.
- My Mom Says: "Oh no, her? Why?"
- Odds: 40% if she doesn't win Worlds Apart
Random Thoughts
- I'm not sure what's more depressing, that Greg Buis didn't make the cut from the rumored group of 40, or that Sean Rector wasn't even on that list in the first place.
- If people like Varner and Wiglesworth don't get voted in, a surge of hardcore fans pissed off at America will join ISIS.
- Please tell me I'm not the only one whose OCD will be working overtime as a result of this whole 31/32 airing out of order thing.
- As mentioned above, it's possible that this season will make it so that the entire final four of Borneo and the entire final five of Panama will have played at least twice. The Micronesia final three all showed up again on Heroes vs. Villains, but for newbie seasons, the record so far is just the Outback final two playing again. (Tocantins could tie this.)
- Speaking of Outback returnee records, if Kimmi and Jeff come back, half the cast will have played at least twice. Why stop there? I don't think we've seen all that Nick Brown has to offer.
- They're not gonna use the "second chance" theme to justify bringing back Redemption Island, are they?
- You know what would suck? If Mike wins S30, that means they totally wasted a slot that could have gone to Greg Buis. I'm just saying.
- S31 drinking game: take a shot every time there's a confessional in the premiere along the lines of, "I've been waiting X years to play this game again!"
- S31 drinking game: take two shots every time a player uses the phrase "Third time's the charm" in their final words.
- S31 drinking game: down a bottle of Jack any time someone makes the exact same mistake that cost them the game the first time.
- Prediction: I say this only because it hasn't happened yet, so I very much hope to be wrong about this. But I'm betting on either Kass or Shane as the first boot.
- Ok, fine, I promise to stop whining about Greg Buis. But just imagine a tribe with him, Shane, and Shirin. Someone write that fanfic already!
About the guest author: beatles20147 is a longtime Survivor fan and former Survivor Historian, who also holds the vaunted distinction of being the only Survivor Sucks poster to whom Jeff Probst has ever responded. (beatles posted logical, constructive criticism about the Redemption Island format after Redemption Island aired; Probst posted a response, saying he understood his concerns, then promptly put RI right back in for South Pacific, because he's Jeff Probst, and he does Jeff Probst-y things.)
Follow beatles on twitter: @beatles20147
Other Second Chance pre-season voting-related articles
- Gordon Holmes at XfinityTV.com: "Survivor: Second Chance invites viewers to select the castaways"
- Dalton Ross at EW.com: "Survivor Second Chance voting: Will any old-timers make the cut?"
- Dalton Ross & Jeff Probst at EW.com: "Jeff Probst gives exclusive details on Survivor's fan-voted Second Chance season"
- Dalton Ross at EW.com: "Let the Second Chance Nominees Plead Their Case For Your Support"
- Andy Denhart at RealityBlurred.com: "CBS changes Survivor Second Chance rules so fans choose"
- Jeff Pitman at True Dork Times: "The TDT Pre-season Second Chance Voter's Guide"
Podcasts - pre-season cast analysis
- Rob Cesternino & Josh Wigler at RHAP: "Survivor Second Chances Announcement Reaction Show"
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